SERIE A SUNDAY: The Ultra previews TORINO v JUVENTUS with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
TORINO V JUVENTUS
7.45pm It’s crunch time on Sunday in Serie A on Betdaq Betting Exchange! ! It’s the final matchday and we have some huge games – I do feel it’s a good nice that Serie A break the final matchday into blocks with games impacting each other kick off at the same time – I feel it’s better than every game kicking off at the same time. We close out the Italian season with a Derby della Mole that could not carry higher stakes. Torino host Juventus, and while the home side have nothing but pride to play for, this is an absolutely must win game for Juventus. The Old Lady arrive sitting in sixth, two points outside the Champions League spots – not only do they need to win here, they also need Roma and Como to drop points.
Juventus should find themselves here. Their underlying numbers have been impressive this season. Their average xG created of 1.93 is the second best attacking figure in Serie A – only marginally behind champions Inter Milan. Their average xG conceded of 1.10 is also the joint-third best defensive figure. On paper, this is a side that should have been challenging Inter more seriously than they did; the numbers are elite and yet here they are sweating over a Champions League place on the final day. Inconsistency and dropped points against sides they should have beaten has been the recurring theme. Juventus have struggled up front for a number of years now – I suppose you could say at least they have solved the problem of creating chances, now next season they need to solve the problem of converting them!
It feels like Juventus are really building something looking at their performance levels, but obviously missing out on Champions League football would be a big blow – money wise and the players it attracts to the club too. Torino arrive into this fixture having had an entirely forgettable campaign. Their average xG created of 1.29 is a mid-table attacking figure in Serie A, and their average xG conceded of 1.52 is in the bottom five defensive figures. Usually, they would likely be going through the motions on the final day of the season but that does not make them an irrelevant factor here. Quite the opposite – a derby against their fiercest rivals is always a big game. The Torino ultras will be absolutely rocking, especially considering they could ruin Juventus’ European ambitions.
Juventus come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.46 with Torino 8.8 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. I have to say the 1.46 on Juventus feels very short here. Derby day has a habit of levelling the playing field. I know they have been playing some excellent football this season, but obviously they have struggled to convert their chances and get over the line in games. The 1.46 feels like a very “need to win” price that looks over-bet in my opinion. The volume of chances Torino have conceded this season has to be a worry of course, but I do expect this one to be closer than the odds suggest. There’s never “nothing to play” in a local derby – Torino would love to stop Juve from getting Champions League football, and I’m happy with a small Juve lay from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Juventus to beat Torino at 1.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAToJu
