TWO BANKERS AT BRIGHTON TODAY: Daqman bids for a double of bankers at Brighton today, with his current score four bankers up out of five. He has a saver at Windsor intended to cover both maximum-stakes bets.
TOMORROW: Which of the top sprinters is the best? Daqman has a surprising view.
WEDNESDAY: The Doncaster St Leger meeting opens with Daqman’s ABC Guide to the big race.
BETDAQ OFFERS BIG VALUE DAY AFTER DAY
Betdaq has the value every day. As the offers stood as early as 8.30 a.m, BETDAQ markets for Brighton this afternoon had settled down to total as low as 106% (twice) in the orange.
The first bet I’ll have today is that, at SP, those two races will have between 17% and 29% bookmaker take-outs, even as much as the 135% for a handicap at York yesterday.
The new betting forum which has complained about these overrounds reckoned big-meeting handicaps were the main culprits. But 135% on a moderate day’s racing when bookies filled their satchels is unforgivable. Only one favourite won.
You only have to look at the trifecta pay-outs to see what kind of day it was at York (5,659-1, 4,487-1, 2,438-1, 857-1, 696-1).
It was a day to throw away the form book (if Lucky Kristale wins, it must be!) but it was still bad luck to have our ‘hidden horse’ Distain start slowly at a well-backed 9-2 and run on to finish second.
Check out Saturdays on BETDAQ! That’s when bookies’ overrounds regularly swell over 25% but exchange offers in the morning orange are usually between 101% and 107%.
LOOK OUT FOR LINGUISTIC DEBUT THIS WEEK
Quickly put to the test. Three from my list of six two-year-olds put forward last week are expected to contest major juvenile trials this week.
Dawn Approach’s brother Herald The Dawn and Ballydoyle’s Landofhopeandglory are both entered for big weekend prizes, the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster and the National Stakes at The Curragh, while Tanaza may run there in the Moyglare.
But the one I’m most looking forward to, John Gosden’s Linguistic, can choose between Doncaster Thursday and Sandown Friday for his racecourse debut.
LIMONATO HAS BEEN FLYING ON THE GALLOPS
2.20 Windsor The first four races at Windsor today are for two-year-olds and one of them could throw up something for the juvenile ‘classics.’
Gravity Flow is entered for the Cheveley Park but the word from the long grass is that Henry Candy’s Limonata could be a ‘machine.’
Limonata is a half-sister to the same stable’s Limato, who won first time, and her debut comes two day’s after Henry’s Haydock Sprint Triumph with Twilight Son.
I am hoping that Limonato will be the stakes saver to bets on two bankers at Brighton today.
SOCIOPATH THE NAP FOR A STABLE IN FORM
2.30 Brighton Staying with the two-year-olds, Perkunas, who was fifth in the Convivial at York, had run second to Emotionless at Newmarket.
Emotionless is another to look out for this week, with two entries at Doncaster on the way to either Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy.
Bluebeard, having his first run after being gelded, looked a danger on paper to Perkunas but layers couldn’t give ‘him’ away with offers of 8.0 this morning ignored, yet he was still second in the market.
4.00 Brighton Peter Chapple Hyam’s yard is hardly ever a stable to follow but right now would win with a seaside donkey. Its form is currently 140011112 for a 56% strike rate.
That punters still don’t trust him is revealed in the SP of the five winners: none started outright favourite and such an easy flow of winners averaging around 4-1 produced a level-stakes profit of 15 points.
In this rock-bottom class-6 handicap, Chapple-Hyam’s Sociopath stands out, trying for a repeat at this level, after being one of those five winners, scoring so easily at Newcastle that this quick return shouldn’t be a problem.
In fact, he may be much better class than he appears. Relatives on the dam’s side were Listed level and he’s by Fastnet Rock, sire of such as Wanted and Qualify.
Sociopath’s Newcastle win stopped a four-timer attempt by Stags Leap and he had five other winners behind him.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9; with 10 a banker)
BET 6pts win LIMONATA (2.20 Windsor)
BANKER: BET 10pts win PERKUNAS (2.30 Brighton)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) SOCIOPATH (4.00 Brighton)
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