SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ROMA v VENEZIA, ATHLETIC BILBAO v SEVILLA and ATLETICO MADRID v REAL MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V VENEZIA
2pm It’s a massive Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! The highlight is no doubt the Madrid Derby in La Liga later, but we kick off the day in Serie A with Roma hosting Venezia. Roma have had a dramatic start to the new season; four games without a win lead to them sacking their manager very early into the season, and the squad responded with a 3-0 win over Udinese here last weekend. Obviously the early sacking opened the door for the Jose Mourinho debate again; the reality is Roma were over-achieving when he was in charge, delivering a major European trophy, and expectations are probably too high now. They were never a top side in Italy, even when Mourinho took charge it raised eyebrows because they were a Champions League club at the time. I have to say, I do feel the sacking was very trigger happy this early into the season – the Roma under-lining numbers aren’t bad. Their average xG created is 1.55 which is the fifth best attacking figure in Serie A, and while they have a mid-table defensive figure it was hardly alarming. They’ve actually got away with that so far, because they are only conceding half of the goals compared to chances conceded.
You never really know what’s going on behind the scenes though, and it’s done now! This is a game that Roma will be fully expected to win with Venezia coming up from Serie B last season, and they’ve struggled at the start of the season too. They have four points from their five games and that leaves them in the relegation zone coming into this weekend. Roma come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.44 with Venezia 8.8 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. I have to say I expected Roma to be a little shorter than 1.44 here to be honest – they drew 1-1 with Athletic Bilbao midweek in the Europa League but that was always going to be a close game, and the Venezia attacking figures are nothing to worry about from a Roma point of view. We saw Roma go on a very good run when they sacked Jose Mourinho last season and the early signs are the squad will likely do the same so there was something going on in the dressing room. Venezia are there for the taking in my opinion, and Roma can get the job done here – the 1.44 is a confident bet to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Roma to beat Venezia at 1.44 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomVnz
ATHLETIC BILBAO V SEVILLA
3.15pm Next we move over to La Liga as we build up to the Madrid Derby later with Athletic Bilbao hosting Sevilla. This should be a high quality game with both sides playing some very good football lately – I know that’s not reflected in the Sevilla results but they continue to create good xG figures and not win games! Athletic Bilbao were in action midweek in the Europa League and they would have been pleased to come away with a 1-1 draw away to Roma – they are a much better side at home, the difference in their performance levels at home and away is very large, and this will be a big test for Sevilla. Athletic Bilbao come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.74 with Sevilla 5.6 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. The question is always the same coming into every Sevilla game at the moment; will they take their chances? They come into this game with just eight points from their seven games, but they have the fourth highest attacking figure in La Liga – miles ahead of Athletic Bilbao too. This has been going on for a while with Sevilla though – they had the fifth best attacking figure last season but finished down in 14th, once again hanging around the relegation battle for a while.
I think it’s wise to keep stakes low on Sevilla games at the moment; it’s just hard to trust what you’re going to get from them. Looking at the figures, you’d have to say that the 1.74 on Athletic Bilbao is very short considering how Sevilla are playing, but they are clearly unreliable in front of goal plus they are marginally conceding more goals than their xG conceded. Obviously we know Bilbao are a much stronger side at home, but I’m happy to just stay out of the match odds market here. I feel we could see a very cagey game – Bilbao haven’t exactly been creating a lot – their average xG created this season is only 1.14 and with Sevilla struggling to score goals again, Under 2.5 goals is worth a small bet at 1.87. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see a draw here and that could be a good option at 4.0, but I prefer the Unders position.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AthSvl
ATLETICO MADRID V REAL MADRID
8pm We finish Sunday with a blockbuster fixture from La Liga as Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid in the latest Madrid Derby. This is always a superb fixture, but it feels a little more important than usual. Real Madrid are already four points behind Barcelona coming into this weekend – if Barcelona beat Osasuna on Saturday night, Real Madrid could end this weekend seven points behind with a loss here. It’s still early days in the season, but that would be quite the gap to close so there’s a lot on the line here. Real Madrid only have themselves to blame for the position they find themselves in too; they dropped points against Mallorca and Las Palmas – two games they would have started very long odds on favourites to win. Those two games were also away from home! We have a very open betting heat, but Real Madrid come into the game as the favourites at 2.6 with Atletico Madrid 2.92 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. Atletico have had a very solid start to the season – another win midweek put them into third, obviously a little bit behind Barcelona and Real Madrid but they don’t have the strength to compete with the big two for the title in my opinion; over 90 minutes it’s a different story though!
You’d have to say that either side has really been tested at this level in La Liga this season. They have both had reasonably easy fixture lists – the toughest fixture for Atletico was away to Athletic Bilbao given their home form, and they won that 1-0. Atletico dropped points against Villarreal, Espanyol and Rayo Vallecano – much like Real Madrid, games that they should be winning! This fixture has been a very tight affair in the past, but recently we have had a tonne of drama – we’ve had recent score lines like 4-2, 5-3 and 3-1. Obviously we had plenty of goals when La Liga moved the Super Cup to Saudi Arabia, but the general trend recently has been goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.85 and Both Teams To Score is a little shorter at 1.7. Both teams have managed to score in the last seven meetings between the sides in all competitions, and I’m very happy to support that at 1.7. Nothing too crazy with the stakes, but this should be a very entertaining game to end the weekend.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlRel
