The famed Old Course at St. Andrews, perhaps the most hallowed ground in all of golf, will once again be the center of the golfing universe this week as the world’s best tee it up in the 144th Open Championship.
Of course, “world’s best” comes with a fairly significant caveat: world No. 1 Rory McIlroy was forced to withdraw after tearing ligaments in his ankle a couple of weeks ago, leaving Jordan Spieth as the clear favorite at BETDAQ (and everywhere else). Spieth, who bucked convention by playing stateside last week in the John Deere Classic (which he, ahem, won), is looking to become the first man since Ben Hogan to win the Open, the Masters, and the U.S. Open in the same calendar year. If you think he can do it you can get aboard now at 7.8, but if you’re like me you’ll be scared off by such short odds, especially when you consider that Spieth has zero experience at St. Andrews, unless you count the golf simulator machine that he has touted as a preparation tool (seriously). If anyone can do it, though, it’s the steely Texan who continues to confound everyone by dominating despite not being the longest, the straightest, or a once-in-a-generation putter. It’s almost comical at times to hear “experts” fumbling for explanations for Spieth’s greatness. This isn’t like Rory or peak Tiger– guys who could do things with the golf ball that others can’t physically do– this is something different. Spieth is the guy you always feel you should beat, but never do. Top three working theories for why Jordan Spieth is so good, in no particular order*:
*highly scientific study based on information gleaned from hundreds of hours of golf commentary and analysis rattling around in the brain of one semi-capable human… me
1. Distance control with his irons
This was the go-to explanation a year or so ago, and you still hear it on occasion. Indeed, Spieth does seem to have great distance control with his irons (as do many Tour professionals), but the fact that he currently ranks 49th on the PGA Tour in Greens in Regulation really hurts this argument, and it’s probably why you don’t hear it quite as often these days. It always struck me as grasping a bit, anyway– it just seems like one of those things you come up with when you can’t find another good reason, and it’s difficult to disprove because Spieth really is a great iron player. Is his distance control what separates him from everyone else, though? I don’t think so.
2. Makes more putts than anyone else
Spieth ranks 8th on Tour in Strokes Gained Putting, which is generally regarded as the stat that identifies the “true” best putters (as opposed to Putts per Round, which favors guys who don’t hit many greens). And while 8th is pretty darn good, it does suggest that there are some guys out there who roll the rock just as well as Spieth, and a few who may do it just a bit better (Jimmy Walker ranks 1st in this area, FYI). However, Spieth leads the PGA Tour in putts made from outside 20 feet, ranks 2nd in putts made from 15-25 feet, and 3rd in 1-putts per round. What does that tell you? It tells you that while he may have the occasional hiccup on a short one, Spieth makes LOADS of putts. This theory may have merit.
3. No weaknesses/Course management
I’ve tied these together because they relate to one another. Saying a player has “no weaknesses” (which Phil Mickelson, among others, has said of Spieth) or suggesting that his “course management”–i.e. planning/decision-making abilities, competitive courage, gamesmanship– is why he wins all the time seems like the easy way out, but it’s becoming increasingly popular as people try to make sense of what they are witnessing. Just this week Geoff Ogilvy said of Spieth, “He doesn’t beat you because he hits it further, he beats you with better golf. He just beats you because he’s better. ” Nick Faldo has also gone on record with his amazement over Spieth’s course management abilities, suggesting a couple of days ago that Spieth was some kind of golf savant with a “special IQ” who wows his peers with his detailed knowledge of courses after only playing them once or twice. If you think that reeks of hyperbole you’re certainly not alone, but if Spieth makes it three Majors in a row this week it’ll be time to give serious consideration to the notion that he simply has a stronger mind than everyone else.
Again, I’m not backing Spieth this week because I don’t like the short odds, but if he’s in contention on Sunday I’ll be glued to the TV just like everyone else. It’s always fun to witness history.
It’ll be more fun, though, if I can witness my bank account grow exponentially. And with a wealth of talent saddled with really long odds this week, the chances of a big win are better than usual (right???).
Plus, I had a vivid dream– more like a vision– a couple of nights ago that revealed to me this week’s winner. I’m deadly serious; I’ve been telling my wife, friends, and anyone else who would listen about this dream. And the odds are juicy, friends…
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Hideki Matsuyama (42.0)- No, Matsuyama was not the player who I saw in my dream, so I guess I don’t really, truly believe he’s going to win this week. That being said, he’s a great value at the current price, having firmly established himself as a contender on golf’s biggest stages over the past couple of years. He finished 5th in this year’s Masters, 18th at the U.S. Open, and he’s placed 23rd or better in nine consecutive tournaments, so he literally never has an off week. And while he doesn’t play links golf often, he made the cut at Royal Liverpool last year and finished 6th at Muirfield in 2013, so there’s no reason to be afraid of him at St. Andrews. Can young Matsuyama come up with a career-changing performance this week? At 42.0, I’m willing to pay to find out.
Tommy Fleetwood (82.0)- Fleetwood is playing extremely well at the moment, finishing 10th in last week’s Scottish Open and 11th at the BMW International, and he’s shown throughout his brief career that he’s very comfortable with links golf (last week at Gullane and six weeks ago at Royal County Down, where he finished 21st, being the two most recent examples). Winning the Open would be life-altering for him, no doubt, but the young Englishman seems to have a certain fearlessness about him and I don’t think he’s going to shrink from the stage if he finds himself in contention on Sunday. He’s a relative longshot, but I’ll gladly take my chances.
Francesco Molinari (124.0)- Here he is, the man of my dreams (in a totally heterosexual way, of course). That’s right– I had a dream/psychic vision/moment of clarity a couple of nights ago in which it was revealed to me that FRANCESCO MOLINARI is going to win this year’s Open. For what it’s worth, Molinari has played some great golf over the past few weeks, with a 3rd-place finish at the Memorial and a 6th-place showing at the Open de France among his recent highlights. He controls his golf ball extremely well, especially off the tee, and you always hear that St. Andrews is all about strategy and hitting it in the right spots… but who am I kidding, I’m fully committed because of my strangely vivid dream, and for no other reason. And when I say “fully committed”, I mean it: we’ve gone a little larger than usual this week due to the unique and possibly supernatural circumstances. If it happens– if he wins– I will buy a boat with my winnings and name it The Molinari. You have my word.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Rickie Fowler (1.8) vs. Justin Rose (2.0)
Rose has had a terrific year but he generally struggles at the Open, where he hasn’t finished in the top-20 in six years. And he didn’t look great in the Scottish Open last week, either, finishing 74th after a final-round 76. I’ll happily back the red-hot Fowler here. Recommendation: Fowler at 1.8
Henrik Stenson (1.91) vs. Adam Scott (1.91)
Scott took an extended break from the game this past winter and hadn’t really found his footing until Sunday of the U.S. Open, when a brilliant 64 at Chambers Bay catapulted him into a tie for 4th. It was his first top-5 since March, and he hasn’t played a competitive round in the meantime, which makes his current form a bit of an unknown. I’m not sure I like the sounds of that against a guy like Henrik Stenson, who was last seen finishing 2nd at the BMW International, giving him eight worldwide top-15 finishes this year. Recommendation: Stenson at 1.91
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