THE OPEN: There’s nothing in golf quite like the Open Championship– players are tested by all sorts of calamities that they don’t usually face at the sunny venues preferred by the PGA and European tours; the whole world gets to spend four days with the iconic links courses that precede and will outlast us all, and occasionally something downright weird happens and we get a set of circumstances or a champion that no one could have predicted.
This seems to happen more often in the Open than in other majors, probably because the weather can be so extreme and the deep rough and bunkers at most Open venues are unusually penal, humbling the best players in the world and acting as great equalizers. Whether you’re Rory McIlroy or Jim Herman, hit it in the wrong spot and you’re not getting out of it. And whether you’re Jason Day or Todd Hamilton, if you avoid the treacherous spots and take what the course gives you, dropping a few timely putts along the way, you can make history. Hamilton, of course, did just that the last time the Open came to Royal Troon, site of this week’s proceedings, as he stunned the golfing world by capturing the Claret Jug after outlasting Ernie Els in a playoff. Hamilton promptly faded back into oblivion after that magical week in 2004, but his victory is still often referenced when people are discussing the unpredictable nature of professional golf, and specifically the Open Championship.
Does Hamilton’s triumph tell us anything particular about the links at Troon? Is this the sort of venue that, for one reason or another, minimizes the advantages that the “better” players normally have? I think that’s probably reaching a bit– keep in mind that in addition to Els, who lost to Hamilton in the aforementioned playoff, the top ten that year was populated with names like Phil Mickelson, Lee Westwood, Retief Goosen, and Tiger Woods. Do all four of those gentlemen have something in common, in addition to being world-class players? Well yes they do, as a matter of fact: they’re all long off the tee. The top seven finishers in 2004 all ranked in the top-15 in driving distance that week, so it seems fairly obvious that length is rewarded at the 7,190-yard true links layout, which has previously played host to six Opens in its 138-year history.
An unusual quirk about the Opens played at Troon is that they’ve all been won by Americans (Palmer, Weiskopf, Watson, Calcavecchia, Leonard, Hamilton). I haven’t heard anyone provide a sensible explanation for this phenomenon, but it’s a trend worth noting nonetheless. American Zach Johnson was crowned champion at St. Andrews last year, and another American, Dustin Johnson, currently heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 9.8. And yet another American has gazed into his crystal ball this week, the same one that has produced four winners on the PGA Tour this season, including BOTH MAJOR CHAMPIONSHIPS (a claim unmatched in Tipsterland), and come up with these three gems, sure to fatten the wallet of the dedicated reader:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jordan Spieth (13.5)- Yes, the odds are short, but they’re not too short, and Spieth is absolutely a blue-chip option this week as he looks to regain the mojo that’s been missing a bit since Sunday at Augusta. Now you might say that I’m being a little hard on Spieth with any talk of “lost mojo”– after all, he won at Colonial a month after his Masters collapse and remains a fixture atop betting markets anytime he tees it up. Still, there’s a palpable sense that he’s fallen back a bit while others, most notably Jason Day and Dustin Johnson, have gained ground. This week Spieth has an excellent chance to push back against that narrative, and I have a hunch that he’ll give it a good run. He’s certainly on-form at the moment, finishing third in his last start, the WGC-Bridgestone, and he seems to be getting more and more comfortable at the Open–T44 in 2013, T36 in 2014, and T4 at St. Andrews last year. An adept wind player who controls his ball flight as well as anyone in the world, Spieth’s game is very reminiscent of another gritty Texan– Justin Leonard, who won at Troon back in 1997. That is, Spieth’s game is reminiscent of Justin Leonard’s if Leonard were the best putter in the world, and if he were the type who seemed impervious to pressure and stress. Spieth is otherworldy in that regard, save a 30-minute stretch at Augusta three months ago, and I have a feeling we’ll all be reminded of that fact come Sunday afternoon.
Louis Oosthuizen (56.0)- Oosthuizen checks some important boxes this week: he’s a proven links player who can get it done in all sorts of conditions, he’s fairly long off the tee, a quality that was important at Troon back in 2004, and he’s shown that he can finish the job on Sunday and hold off the world’s best on the biggest of stages. We’ve known that since 2010, when he won at St. Andrews, and the diminutive South African has strengthened his reputation over the past few years with a string of good performances in major championships and a few wins scattered here and there, the last one coming at the Handa Perth Invitational back in February. Oosthuizen hasn’t done anything spectacular lately but he’s been solid, logging top-25 finishes in each of his last two PGA Tour starts, and he continues to thrive at majors, placing 15th at the Masters in April and riding a second-round 65 at Oakmont to a T23. And we haven’t even mentioned the thing that I like most about Ooosthuizen this week– his price.
Andy Sullivan (96.0)- Sullivan is a good young player who endured a bit of a rough patch a couple of months ago but has now come fully out of it, posting top-25 finishes in each of his last five starts and shooting par or better in 12 consecutive competitive rounds. His T6 at the Scottish Open last week was preceded by a T5 at the Open de France, so he’s been breathing the rarefied air with regularity, and he finished a respectable 30th in his first career Open appearance last year, so he’s past the first-time jitters and will likely not be intimidated. And don’t forget– this is a guy who won three times on the European Tour in 2015, so there’s no reason to think he’ll turn into a wide-eyed puddle of goo if he catches a whiff of the lead on Sunday. Winning a tournament like this would obviously constitute a breakthrough for Sullivan, but he’s very capable and certainly worth a bet at the current price.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Sergio Garcia (1.73) vs. Rickie Fowler (2.0)
Fowler has a solid record at the Open and he played well at the WGC-Bridgestone a couple of weeks ago, but he’s been mostly dreadful this season, missing the cut at the Players, the Memorial, and the U.S. Open. Sergio, meanwhile, is at the top of his game after a stretch that includes a win at the Byron Nelson and top-5s at both the U.S. Open and BMW International. His Open record speaks for itself, though it’s worth noting that he missed the cut at Troon back in 2004. Still, that’s not enough to keep me away from him against a slumping Fowler. Recommendation: Garcia at 1.73
Adam Scott (1.91) vs. Henrik Stenson (1.94)
It’s pretty difficult to pick apart the record of either of these guys at the moment; both are playing well and both are traditional contenders at the Open and in major championships in general. Call it a hunch, then, but I have a great feeling about Henrik Stenson this week (I considered backing him in the overall market) and I like him at 1.94 against just about anybody, even someone as accomplished as Scott. Stenson has always been the type of player who feeds off success and generally follows one good performance with another, and he’s certainly on a roll right now after winning the BMW International and finishing 13th at the Scottish Open last week despite opening with a 76. He’s long, he’s good in the wind, and his putting, while not the strength of his game, is still more trustworthy than Scott’s. Recommendation: Stenson at 1.94
