If I ever need surgery, I’ll choose the horse doctors at Ditcheat. Wind and palate ops have transformed so many Paul Nicholls horses, I’ve lost count. It seems that champion lungs and champion breathing equals champion trainer.
And today’s a day the Ditcheat docs can earn their keep. Cowards Close in the first at Donny (1.45) has had his ‘wind sorted out’ (quote unquote the trainer) and, incidentally, gets 7lb from the odds-on Victor Hewgo.
And the Nicholls Grimthorpe runners Harry the Viking (breathing op in the summer) and Mon Parrain (palate recauterised) have also had wind ‘correction’.
If there isn’t a winner among them, then Nicholls must surely draw in the Greatwood Gold Cup. He’ll probably land the one-two, with Rebel Rebellion and Ulck Du Lin.
2.55 Doncaster With the ground riding on top, it will be hard for a 10-year-old to skip around Town Moor over two miles. Only two have tried it in the history of this race: last of nine and ‘pulled up’ for their pains.
If I delete the three 10-year-olds here from the 109% list in the orange, I can bet on every other runner (in an underround 100-70) and make a profit.
Simply Ned has shot up the handicap and Nicky Richards charges are running badly at the moment so, of the young horses, I’m taking Alan King’s Turn Over Sivola (5.1 on BETDAQ as I write), back to his right trip, sure to relish the good ground and better than the bare form as one affected before the stable shutdown.
Of the older horses, the same stable’s Lidar (8.4 offers) is also better than the record shows, placed in nine of his 11 chase starts and actually down a few pounds on his Graded and Listed form of 2012. Never out of the frame in four tries on Town Moor, he could bounce back.
3.15 Newbury (Ladbrokes Greatwood Hurdle) Philip Hobbs, in tremendous form with eight winners in the last fortnight – four out of six last weekend – has just the one runner all day today: Tigris in this one.
Tigris has looked progressive and loves today’s ground and his main rival in the BETDAQ market, Seventh Sky is from a yard which went through February without a winner.
Roman Flight wins only on good ground and his yard is also on the cold list, 59 days without success. Jumps Road is out of form, high in the handicap, and Tony McCoy describes Bodega’s chance as only ‘a squeak.’
3.30 Doncaster (Grimthorpe Chase) Though he’s Noel Fehily’s mount at Aintree, Grand National favourite Teaforthree will be ridden by Tony McCoy in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
That’s this morning’s news as all in this Grimthorpe bar Golden Call, Renard (has Cheltenham entries) and Harry The Viking (Kim Muir) have a date with destiny in the National.
But Night In Milan (number 72 on the card at Aintree), Court By Surprise (77), Real Milan (89) and Storm Survivor (92) are unlikely to get in.
Monbeg Dude (20.0 on BETDAQ for the National, as I write), Godsmejudge (25.0) and Wayward Prince (45.0) are the serious Aintree trialists here, all with the same weight difference today as in the National.
Monbeg Dude, who scoped badly and had to miss the Haydock Grand National Trial, is reunited with Paul Carberry today. The partnership had been third in the same trial last year after winning the Welsh Grand National. He’s 18lb higher now.
Godsmejudge skipped Haydock because of the heavy ground, after running badly at Sandown in December at the time Alan King’s horses were going wrong.
He’s only 9lb higher than for his Scottish National success last April, loves good ground and has Cheltenham Festival form, third in the 4m NH Chase before winning at Ayr.
Court By Surprise was narrowly beaten in the London National, in December with the 2013 Haydock Trial winner just behind him in third, but he ran badly in the Grimthorpe last season.
Storm Survivor’s position 92 on the card for Aintree suggests that today will have to be his National. He likes the sound surface.
If Harry The Viking could reproduce his NH Chase second to Teaforthree in 2012, he would be a certainty here off 10st 5lb. His form since is moderate but he’s dropped to a stone below his highest mark and it seems significant that his last two races have both been at Doncaster.
Both Harry The Viking and Mon Parrain have had breathing ops, which are so effective at Ditcheat, but Mon Parrain will need the race.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Alan King’s horses are super-resurgent, with his last six runners 321241 and 13 out of 15 still standing have finished in the first four since Balder Success won the Pendil last Saturday.
Godsmejudge (10.0 on BETDAQ) is around twice the price of Monbeg Dude yet, to my mind, Dude is more the tough warrior for Aintree and the Judge a fast-track stayer.
He has the ground in his favour and has risen in the handicap only half as much as his rival but, younger by a year, can show more improvement.
There is, of course, a doubt about whether either of them will want to bust a gut with Aintree the main target, and there’s another battle at the bottom of the handicap: Storm Survivor v Harry the Viking.
If anything ever looked laid out for a race it is ‘Harry’, 8.2 on BETDAQ, as I write. Preps here at Donny after the famous Ditcheat breathing op. Big drop down the handicap.
Revived in blinkers recently. The ground in his favour. And owner Sir Alex Ferguson has a day off to watch (I couldn’t watch Man U at the mo, if Sir Alex gave me his private seat! Now Sheffield United; that’s different).
3.50 Newbury (Greatwood Gold Cup) Paul Nicholls’ form in this since 2006 is 12111011 but top-weights have had a bad run, with 11st 5lb the most that’s been carried to victory.
Rebel Rebellion’s age is also a worry – as is Dashing George’s 12 years – as there’s been only one successful above the age of eight in the decade.
However, it’s not a great field and the Rebel is blinkered first time. Last time he had aids fitted for the first time, he win the Grand Sefton in cheekpieces.
Ulck Du Lin is down 13lb on the start of the season but a combination of soft ground and today’s tongue-tie should see him find his form at last.
With no Cheltenham entries, this is Ulck Du Lin’s ‘Gold Cup’, and the race looks very much like producing a Ditcheat one-two.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points each)
BET 7pts win TURN OVER SIVOLA and 4pts win LIDAR (2.55 Doncaster)
BET 15pts win (nap) TIGRIS (3.15 Newbury)
BET 3.3pts win GODSMEJUDGE and 4pts win HARRY THE VIKING (3.30 Doncaster)
BET 6.6pts win ULCK DU LIN and 5.7pts win REBEL REBELLION (3.50 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Cowards Close (1.45 Doncaster), Tigris (3.15 Newbury) and Hurricane Hollow (5.00 Newbury)
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It’s never easy, unless you are a Willie Mullins man. I was counting my cash twice yesterday as Tiqris came to challenge, going like a winner, and as Rebel Rebellion led at the last. The one was brought down, a gamble wasted and a young horse’s record spoiled, the other lost a boxing match up the Newbury run-in.
Meanwhile, the County Carlow money-making factory registered 14 winners in a fortnight – even I can reckon that’s a Mullins winner a day – with a double at Navan.
But my reckoning is wrong, isn’t it: Willie wins more than any trainer on these islands with so few meetings in Ireland. Incredibly, the run of 14 wins has come from only eight days’ sport, usually single meetings, so almost two a day.
And such a sequence is par for the Irish courses from the record-breaking champion handler, who has so many chances at Cheltenham that he’s 1.44 on BETDAQ this morning to be leading trainer.
No wonder his jockey, Ruby Walsh, is 1.66 for top rider. No wonder Ruby said goodbye to Paul Nicholls, who is 5.8 in the BETDAQ orange for Festival glory.
The strength in depth of the Mullins’ Cheltenham squad might be measured by his having made 64 of the 350 entries for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
He still has nine in that opening race, including two of the favourites, Vautour and Wicklow Brave, before unleashing such stars as Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Annie Power, Ballycasey and Un de Sceaux, a magic mix of old-timers and young pretenders.
And how else could he measure and monitor them, and choose the right races, if the said Rupert Walsh had been over in England riding for a vanquished champion?
Ruby has had 38 winners at the Festival, and Willie – champion for two of the last three years –22, which is three behind Nicky Henderson and eight behind Nicholls.
It seems a certainty that the gap will close later this month, by how many I will be looking at in my Festival previews. Meanwhile, the man of 1,000 stars has four runners at Leopardstown today:
2.20 Leopardstown Dr Fong is not the greatest sire of a jumper and his son, Shamsikhan, owes some of his position as odds-on favourite this morning to his stable’s pedigree.
The French Flat winner has had his ‘problems’ and has been gelded since a convincing hurdles-debut second for Mullins in September, with the third horse home in the frame since behind both Vautour and Un De Sceaux.
Though nothing else has come out of the race with any credit since, the winner went on to land a Grade-3 hurdle.
And Shamsikhan, a 1m 7f winner on the Flat on very soft ground, was always going to need today’s extra hurdling distance of 2m 4f.
In total contrast to the Mullins operation, Noel Meade, who saddles Zigger Zagger, had to shut down for much of February, only returning yesterday with three runners, one placed, at Navan. We wish him well.
Better bred for jumping is the Oscar five-year-old, Hairy O’Malley, while Liz Doyle, the trainer in form (W Mullins excepted), saddles Thekingofconnemara. Both have been nursed along in bumpers and make their hurdles debuts today.
Most likely danger to the favourite is Emperor Of Exmoor, placed over today’s trip in a solid race on the last day. But I’ll have a ‘Hairy’ 15.5, with Shamsikhan 1.95 for the stakes saver, and a reverse forecast with Ladbrokes.
2.50 Leopardstown (Ballsbridge Hurdle) Midnight Game has his Cheltenham trial in this – he runs in either the Coral Cup or the County Hurdle – and a good performance today will also boost the Festival chances of Un De Sceaux after their one-two in the Red Mills at Gowran.
Today’s race is Thousand Stars’ Cheltenham. The County Hurdle winner, fourth in both the Champion Hurdle and the World Hurdle, is doubtful for the Festival.
Last of five in the Leopardstown Ryanair in December, he is 21lb better than Midnight Game on official ratings, and is clearly favoured by the race conditions today.
Midnight Game, last of a Mullins’ 1-2-3-4 in the Morgiana Hurdle in November and 16 lengths adrift of Un De Sceaux on his last day, must surely go chasing next season.
3.50 Leopardstown A cracking novice chase featuring Graded-race performers Mallowney and Darwins Fox, yet with Moscow Mannon the short-priced favourite, as runaway winner of a seniors’ chase at Naas.
He won that day by 15 lengths, 22 lengths and 22 again, and was capable over hurdles last season of running second to Un De Sceaux.
But he was also placed over hurdles, a respectful 10 lengths or so behind Mallowney at Naas, including the weight concession.
And Mallowney beat Ned Buntline, also at Naas, but in a novice chase six weeks ago after that one had Moscow Mannon more than eight lengths behind at Navan.
Mallowney looks the value on BETDAQ at 3.25 this morning, with the jury out on Moscow Mannon. Was he flattered by the Naas win, or has he improved a ton? Barring accident, this race will tell us.
4.20 Leopardstown (Carrickmines Chase) Colbert Station, Double Seven, Home Farm and Last Time d’Albain are all in the Grand National, while Becauseicouldnb’tsee ,Your Busy and Slew Charm are prepping for Cheltenham.
But it’s really the J P McManus’ Aintree test, since he owns both Colbert Station (trained Ted Walsh and 26.0 on BETDAQ) and Double Seven (with Martin Brassil and 37.0).
Colbert Station, who had had only five chases before unseating at the Chair in last year’s National, has been third in the Troytown since.
Double Seven has won five in a row right up to Listed level hiking his weight 35lb, but all have come on right-handed tracks. His record left-handed over fences, including at leopardstown, is 00PP, though he did win anti-clockwise over hurdles at Tipperary way back.
We saw Night In Milan win his National trial – the Grimthorpe – yesterday but Monbeg Dude and Godsmejudge flopped. Monbeg Dude stayed on but his jumping was so sloppy that I wouldn’t back him to get round at Liverpool.
Despite his 18lb rise in the weights since December, Daring Article is the Carrickmines favourite on BETDAQ this morning. Has twice had Colbert Station behind and is right on top of He’llberembered (9lb higher now than when won this last year) on revised weights after their Leopardstown Chase one-two.
Last year’s Irish National third, Home Farm, is no doubt being trained for that race again, a quirky sort (sometimes reluctant to start) being handled carefully by Arthur Moore.
There’s been only one winner of this with more than 10st 9lb in the saddle – none over 10st 13lb – none over the age of 10.
The Arthur Moore stable, which has Home Farm at the front of the market, has won this race twice since 2008 and may saddle another winner in Pass The Hat, 9.4 on BETDAQ.
They piled on the money over a trip too far at Navan, held up too far off the pace, and again when heavy ground beat him at Limerick.
Daring Article (5.8 this morning) has also been well backed in big handicaps and his Leopardstown Chase run against last year’s winner of this gives him every chance today.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each)
BET 1.3pts win and place HAIRY O’MALLEY and 2.6pts win (stakes saver) SHAMSIKHAN (2.20 Leopardstown)
BET 8.8pts win (nap) MALLOWNEY (3.50 Leopardstown)
BET 4.1pts win DARING ARTICLE and 2.3pts win PASS THE HAT (4.20 Leopardstown)
DAQ MULTIPLES’ WILLIE MULLINS’ TREBLE: 2pts Shamsikhan (2.20 Leopardstown) with Thousand Stars (2.50 Leopardstown) and Aminabad (5.20 Leopardstown)
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Tell your friends about the people’s exchange in time for Cheltenham. No need to keep it in the family: we are one big family where everyone’s a winner. It’s no secret: you set your own prices and create your own value.
No more searching through accounts with a myriad of bookmakers to find the best offer, only to discover that the advertised morning price didn’t last five minutes.
Price up the races for Cheltenham, make the offers you think are right, take the offers you think are wrong, and be twice lucky.
The orange-and-green of the Irish flag is raised by a legion of winners year on year at the festival and you can nail your colours to the orange of the BETDAQ betting offers and the green of the lays. Be up for the craic and win money with the winners.
It must be easy: even I can do it! In 2012, I had the big double of Gold Cup (WON 8-1 from 11.5 on BETDAQ) and Champion Hurdle (WON 11-1 from 17.0).
Notice I made 7.5 extra points profit (BETDAQ over SP), 26.5 points won instead of 17, and I’ve shown in my dueling with Pricewise recently that this is no fluke with 17 points extra from betting with BETDAQ between declaring my bets and SP.
Long term, as with this November-March duel, or short term, at the one festival meeting, you can stack up value as you go along, if you keep your Daq up!
My last year’s Cheltenham bets included a 25-1 winner, Holywell, and you will probably see him back at the Festival next week.
Best Cheltenham betting year of all for this column was 22 Festival wins in March, 2009, but the best long-term coup was an unbeaten sequence of lays through three consecutive festivals.
From 2008, through the 2009 festival and completing the 2010 meeting, I had 16 successful lays in a row. No losers (or rather, no winners). It’s all recorded in the Daqman Library.
You are allowed to win on BETDAQ, and you can do so with losers as well as winners. Keep your wallet topped up by spotting the lays.
I had another 10 lays in a row in September, 2010, so again, short term or long term, if you can get into the pattern of lays success, you can win money by backing losers!
From 2007 when I started this column until part-way through 2010, I landed 400 win lays from 524 bets (76% strike rate), netting 1,943 points profit. I built a bank for my betting, just by backing losers.
If ever the gamble was taken out of betting, it’s BETDAQ. You don’t even need a poker face. You play by laying your offers down in full view.
And, if you get it wrong, rejoin the play at any time during the day up to the ‘off’ and into the race itself. Recoup your early position. Trade and profit. Win when you lose.
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL LATEST: ‘WORLD’ POWER
My colleague, Waggaman, got it right: Annie Power goes for the World Hurdle. Not the Mares Hurdle. Not the Champion Hurdle.
Willie Mullins can no doubt see the cracks in Big Buck’s but the decision also suggests that he believes Quevega can continue her domination of the Mares’ Hurdle.
Punters will hope that this announcement is the end of speculation. Paul Nicholls ‘revelation’ that Rocky Creek would go for the Gold Cup seemed to ‘cut the string’ on my Grand National kite.
But I see that Ladbrokes have removed Rocky Creek and Long Run from their Gold Cup market, and have the pair in their front eight for Aintree.
In the latest Ditcheat interview, Nicholls says ‘the best is yet to come’ from the big horse and that he has never been able to get him as fit as he’d like.
‘Rocky’ needs good ground and, reading between the lines, a Gold Cup run would be the making of him, with Aintree in mind. But why take him out of the Cheltenham market altogether?
Ladbrokes are reliable, as well as being in the know. For instance, unlike 14 bookmakers in the Oddschecker list, they have removed the Supreme Novice Hurdle favourite, Irving, from their County Hurdle market. It seems that 14 well-known firms just want to take your money!
TODAY’S RACING: FANOOS LOOKS READY FOR THIS
2.30 Southwell A welcome class 3, in which I’m betting that we’ll see Green Wizard bounce back after treatment for the breaking of blood-vessels. I took 6.6 on BETDAQ in a 106% orange this morning.
The drop back in trip will suit this front-runner, who may have most to fear from 8.2 offer Billy Cuckoo (holds Galway Jack on December form).
I’m hoping he they can disappoint the giant ‘Jack’, whose stable is in the trade paper’s ‘out of form’ list, and outpace the 12-year-old Dashing George, who also likes to go from the front.
Balzaccio hasn’t won a chase since 2011, and Arthur’s Pass wins only right-handed. That’s The Deal has been withdrawn.
3.20 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Handicap): Club House goes for his seventh Lingfield win, three of them in February.
Yet, claimed off, he will line up only 4lb higher than for the first of the February treble, and will receive weight from all bar the bottom horse.
Seek The Fair Land (that’s Ireland) has had to drop to a claimer for success this year and prefers 6f. Sulis Minerva (the Roman name for Bath) is also a 6f mare. Hillybilly Boy (nothing to sing about) last won a seller. Afkar is one paced (don’t ask me why he’s called Afkar).
But, though she is top weight and favourite this morning (4.3), Fanoos looks the value in a 108% list in the BETDAQ orange as I write.
She was a bit fresh after four months off, otherwise might have turned her neck defeat at Kempton recently into victory. As the form stands, she was the ‘moral’, giving 6lb to the winner, beaten a neck.
5.45 Kempton Lawney Hill (Royal Etiquette) and Michael Blanshard (Petersboden) are top of the Racing Post ‘hot trainers’ list.
Both saddle horses running into form, and the 7.8 and 6.0 respectively this morning suggests a ‘dutch’ against the morning favourite, Ladies Dancing, whose only Flat win was on her debut in 2009.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each)
BET 3.7pts win GREEN WIZARD and 2.7pts win BILLY CUCKOO (2.30 Southwell)
BET 6pts win (nap) FANOOS (3.20 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win PETERSBODEN and 3pts win ROYAL ETIQUETTE (5.45 Kempton)
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OUR FATHER NOW WELL HANDICAPPED/ FOLLOW THE MARKET IN THE ARKLE
1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): There are 102 possibles in this, but only 14 are capable of taking ‘the main chance’, according to the stats.
To reach that ‘short list’, you delete all those with more, or less, than two to four hurdles runs (at least one must be a win); all that have fallen; all without bumper experience; and all four-year-olds and horses over the age of six.
The two hot favourites, Irving and Vautour, do not qualify because neither has big-field bumper experience, which is the new trend with an 80% strike rate.
The order in, if the BETDAQ market has it right, is: 9.2 Wicklow Brave, 16.0 Josses Hill, 21.0 Western Boy, Valseur Lido, 27.0 The Liquidator, 50.0 Faugheen.
Making up the 14 are rank outsiders Garde La Victoire, Vieux Lion Rouge, Cheltenian, Lieutenant Colonel, Mountain King, Noble Endeavour, Stellar Notion and Vice Et Vertu.
A final test for class in this race would inevitably point to Josses Hill, second in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle and 10-1 with a plethora of bookmakers.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST: BET (to win 30pts): 2pts win JOSSES HILL (16.0 on BETDAQ)
2.05 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Arkle Challenge Trophy): Forget any contender older than seven; with more than four chase starts; or which hasn’t reached the first three in a Graded chase.
Qualifiers: Arnaud, Age Of Logistics, Ballycasey, Bright New Dawn, Champagne Fever, Djakadam, Dodging Bullets, Don Cossack, Grandouet, Ted Veale, Trifolium, Valdez.
But then, 13 of the last 14 winners had a rating of 142 or more and nine of the last 10 had won or been placed at the Cheltenham Festival before.
You’re really down to 3.75 on BETDAQ about the Supreme Novice Hurdle winner, Champagne Fever (rated 144 over fences), and 5.9 the third, Trifolium (rated 156), against Triumph Hurdle fourth Dodging Bullets (chase rating 155) at 7.8.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Trifolium
2.40 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Festival Chase) One for win-and-place backers, with six successes between 5-1 and 8-1 SP in the last decade.
Only one winner has broken through the 11st barrier, and the winning-ratings parameter has a 10st 11lb maximum this year.
Four of the last five winners had been dropped between 5lb and 10lb in the ratings in the lead up to this.
The first one in the market to qualify is Our Father, one-time 20-lengths winner of a novices’ chase at Cheltenham. Just two runs this year, seventh in the Hennessy and fifth in the Grand National trial. Our Father is set to carry 10st 10lb.
Our Father is also engaged in the Kim Muir later in the week, so we will have to wait and see which way he goes and how he will be regarded in the BETDAQ markets.
3.20 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Champion Hurdle) Hurricane Fly must be a Hattons Grace (1949-51) or a Sea Pigeon (1980-81) to win it at the age of 10.
Modern champions with more than two wins in the race started their sequence at age seven, including Hurricane Fly himself. The only seven-year-old in the race is My Tent Or Yours.
His trainer, Nicky Henderson, had a sequence winner (See You Then 1985-7) and the stable came good again with two six-year-olds, Punjabi and Binocular, in the modern era.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: My Tent Or Yours, Our Conor
4.00 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Mares’ Hurdle) The history of this race, in the last five years of its six-year existence, is Quevega, Quevega, Quevega, Quevega, Quevega.. and likely to be six in a row next Tuesday.
But one of the meeting’s hot-pots will surely fall, and I shall be looking for a young mare, win and place, to topple the second 10-year-old favourite of the day in consecutive races.
4.40 Cheltenham, Tuesday (NH Chase) Jonjo O’Neill saddled four winners out of five in this between 2002-7. He has Shutthefrontdoor and Holywell among the fancied horses, and a six-year-old (like the favourite Foxrock) has won only once since 1990.
5.15 Cheltenham Some 80% of winners of this novices’ chase came from the first five in the SP market.
Seven-year-olds seem to have a big advantage (66% strike rate), yet only three runners of that age – all Irish – are currently sure to beat the cut: Byerley Babe, Balnaslow and Some Ticket.
TODAY’S RACING: EXPECT A ‘FLYING’ FINISH TO THE DEVON NATIONAL
3.00 Exeter (Devon National) Last year’s winner and third, The Clyda Rover (12lb higher) and Musical Wedge (1lb lower), are back again, though both have been badly out of form the last twice.
‘Rover’ wasn’t fancied for either of those (14-1 and 25-1) and Paul Moloney’s mount, who also won the Marathon on this course off 2lb lower than today, has had since November 17 to get sorted and be prepared for today’s defence.
Alderluck was fourth in this season’s Marathon in December but has won only once – a grade lower – since 2011. His best form is left-handed (5-14) and he’s taken just the one prize going clockwise (1-17).
The snag with betting in this race is that Somerby (not to be confused with Somersby), Five Star Wilsham, Coolking and Armedanddangerous are all unexposed at today’s trip.
It should suit Five Star Wilsham, who is out of an Over The River mare, and trainer Jeremy Scott has taken this prize before, though you wonder why ‘Wilsham’ comes to long distance now when he’s already aged 10.
Flying Award has been penalised just 4lb for winning the Somerset National in January and he’s also won the Highland National at Perth. He was pulled up last time out but had also run badly before Perth.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Only one point separates four horses at the front of the BETDAQ market, as I write, but a 106% orange means you are in a punter-friendly zone (the SP market totted up to 124% in 2012).
The Clyda Rover could bounce back but Flying Award has earned his wings more than once for this sort of event and 6.2 this morning looked generous.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each but 30 ante-post)
BET 3.8pts win FLYING AWARD (3.00 Exeter)
BET 5.7pts win (nap) BALLYTOBER (3.30 Exeter)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt acca Flying Award (3.00 Exeter), Be Bop Boru (3.20 Newcastle), Ballytober (3.30 Exeter), Capote (4.00 Exeter)
ANTE-POST: BET 2pts win JOSSES HILL (16.0, Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Cheltenham, Tuesday)
* Selections were updated at midday. Stipulation of NAP on Ballytober missing and bet on FLYING AWARD omitted. Apologies
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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 2: GRADED FORM GIVES MORNING ASSEMBLY AN RSA CHANCE
1.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Neptune Novices’ Hurdle): Some 74 possibles in this, 11 from Willie Mullins’ yard, but seven-year-olds and those without Graded win or place form, rated below 142, or Irish equivalent, are deleted.
Briar Hill, Deputy Dan, Don Poli, Faugheen, Kilala Quay, Kings Palace, Rathvinden, Red Sherlock, Royal Boy, Sea Lord, Timesremembered, Un Temps Pour Tout, Upazo and Vautour remain, though some of those are engaged elsewhere at the Festival.
Failure to win at or around the distance of the race (it’s 2m 5f) will thin them down even more. Out goes Rathvinden, Sea Lord and Upazo, leaving a short-list of 10.
But the 10 reduce to five if the BETDAQ market is your guide: 3.85 Faugheen, 5.7 Red Sherlock, 8.2 Royal Boy, 17.5 Deputy Dan, Un Temps Pour Tout, 25.0 Briar Hill (doubtful).
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Briar Hill (also engaged Albert Bartlett).
2.05 Cheltenham, Wednesday (RSA Chase): The winner already has class and inevitably comes from the ratings band 145-156. He’s aged seven and he hasn’t been out of the frame on his last three starts.
Recognise him? He’s Ballycasey, Black Thunder, Bright New Dawn, Corrin Wood, Don Cossack, Just A Par, Morning Assembly, Sam Winner, Shutthefrontdoor or Taquin Du Seuil.
But, if you take out those with fewer than three chase starts and without a win or a place in a Graded race, you are left with a 1-2-3 (BETDAQ offers) of 8.8 Morning Assembly, 17.0 Don Cossack and 28.0 Black Thunder.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Le Bec (15.0 on BETDAQ)
2.40 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Coral Cup): Older horses off a featherweight (five out of six with no more than 10st 3lb from 1993 to 1998) used to win this.
But, since then, as quality has increased, 12 of the last 13 winners have been aged from five to seven, with – since 2003 – seven winners racing off 10st 12lb or more.
So it is that three of the last four have been rated 141-148, in which range Paul Nicholls has Edgardo Sol, Far West and Virak, and Willie Mullins has Smashing, Upazo, Midnight Game and Rennetti.
Clever placing of horses is part of the trainer’s art. Watch out for the selections of these two champion handlers.
3.20 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Champion Chase): The winner of this is aged from five to nine, must have had at least seven chase starts, finished in the first three in a Graded race and have been in the frame in all of his last four completed starts.
Those stats suggest that you look no further than Sire De Grugy (3.0 on BETDAQ) and Arvika Ligeonniere (7.2), with other qualifiers rank outsiders (Al Ferof, Benefficient, Hinterland and Module, with 15.0 Hinterland the likely Ditcheat runner instead of Al Ferof).
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Al Ferof, 45.0 on BETDAQ (also engaged Ryanair Chase).
4.00 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Cross-Country): The same horses used to win this year on year (Spot The Differemce, Garde Champetre), revealing the genius of Enda Bolger at training them for this discipline.
We are overdue for a sequence horse and three likely starters – 4.9 on BETDAQ Big Shu, 6.0 Balthazar King and 18.0 Sizing Australia – have all won it before.
But the stats say you must have a horse aged eight to 12, off 10st 9lb or less (6 out of 8), which is a strong pointer to one horse, Any Curerency, a narrow second in a similar CD x-country in December, and third in November.
On both occasions, the ground was riding good. Only ninth in this championship last season, Any Currency is 9.4 as I write, but the weather next week holds the key.
This column is already on Balthazar King at 7.6, so we’ve got a bit of ‘overs’, but I’m secretly hoping he has a good round, but not a hard race, so that he lines up for me in the Grand National at 44.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
BETDAQ RACES AT KEMPTON PARK TONIGHT: UNEXPOSED ANSAAB WORTH A BET
5.30 Kempton Park Let’s get the nap out of the way. Sudden Wish is a stand-out in the grade, with nearest market rivals Addikt, Polydamus and My Renaissance all having to resort to class 7 to get a win or a place. Ryan Moore back in the saddle.
6.00 Kempton Park (Betdaq No Lose Mobile Bet Median Auction Maiden Stakes) You certainly need to be In Seine to own a racehorse, so I appreciate the naming of this son of Champs Elysees.
But I can’t see myself moving all in on this river card. Much more likely to clear up is Andrew Balding with Bishop Of Ruscombe, his charges improving no end after just one run.
Another scopey individual is Dynamic Ranger. It’s a worry that he’s started at 20-1, 33-1 and 66-1 in his three starts. Not yet in play then, but it could be different tonight.
6.30 Kempton Park (Betdaq – Sports Betting Exchange – Handicap) A cracking class-2 contest, in which nine of the runners reached the frame last time out and, as might be expected, the BETDAQ market reveals a wide-open race, 6.6 the field, as I write.
Five-year-olds from the top end of the handicap have won both runnings so far and I remember this column being on Moonday Sun (a good second) at a big price over a mile at Lingfield.
But there are worries today: the draw (13) obviously; his second attempt at 10 furlongs (he didn’t seem to stay this trip last time behind Indian Jack); and his again meeting Lingfield conqueror, Rebellious Guest.
Moonday Sun is better off at the weights but I expected to see him in a pair of blinkers and returning to a mile, so I’ll wait for that to happen. In the Lincoln?
Rebellious Guest was unable to carry the penalty for beating Moonday Sun and he stays on that mark today, also drawn high. The Winter Derby awaits.
Rebellious Guest and Spa’s Dancer are also in the Lincoln but Moonday Sun looks well treated for Doncaster, getting 3lb from Spa’s Dancer, to whom he gives 2lb today.
Spa’s Dancer made a promising return after an absence at Lingfield recentl. He, too, has always been kept to around a mile but Ryan Moore thinks he deserves his chance at today’s trip.
Epic Battle has looked a good stone short of class 2 at Wolver the last twice but, as a four-year-old from a top yard, improvement can be expected.
Bancnuanaheireann may prefer his wide stall in 14. He ran a good second out of gate 10, racing wide, in a Listed at Lingfield in November but the third, Uramazin, turned round the form over the same CD in in December when ‘Banc’ was in stall 3.
Best guess for me today is the unexposed Ansaab (9 races in his life), a winner on Polytrack at Dundalk, who caught the eye, running on second here at Kempton over a mile a month back.
A big punt in the Irish Lincoln a year or so ago, he’s yet another with a Doncaster entry but, number 80 on the card, is unlikely to get in, and I think today’s 10 furlongs suits him better: 8.0 on BETDAQ as I write. Hope he stays sound for this.
7.00 Kempton Park (Betdaq In £500 In Free Bets Handicap) Sprinters take turns to win, needing a specific weight mark. The usual suspects for a lay are those up in the ratings.
But that doesn’t help here, with no fewer than eight runners racing off a lower mark than they’ve won off. Seven of them have scored in a higher grade. Seven of them have already won at Kempton.
You’d expect another 6.6 the field but, no, Alnoomas was clear in the market (at 3.6) this morning, blinkered first time. You guys obviously don’t need me!
8.00 Kempton Park (Betdaq No Premium Charge Handicap) That’s more like it: 6.0 the field in yet another open and competitive handicap, a London Mile qualifier.
But is it that open? The prize has gone to four-year-olds in every one of its three years in existence, all three from stalls 1-6.
Those stats point us to Triple Chocolate, High Time Too and Liberty Jack, and I shall have my pound on further improvement by the lightly-raced Triple Chocolate, big at 13.0 this morning.
His return to a mile is significant after he dropped out in the last furlong over 1m 2f when badly drawn here last time.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) SUDDEN WISH (5.30 Kempton)
BET 4.4pts win SPA’S DANCER and 2.8pts win ANSAAB (6.30 Kempton)
BET 1.6pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) TRIPLE CHOCOLATE (8.00 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Sudden Wish (5.30 Kempton) and Bishop Of Ruscombe (6.00 Kempton) with Ansaab and Spa’s Dancer (6.30 Kempton)
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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: IS THIS HOW TO GET DAY 3 OFF THE GROUND?
1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (JLT – Golden Miller – Novices’ Chase): The former Jewson is officially three years old but, in its short history, it has already established a very tight ratings parameter for the winner: 146-148.
Will the half-dozen 150-plus-rated horses this year change all that? Historically not; last year those rated 161 (Dynaste), 152 and 151 were second, fifth and sixth, and the year before 160 (8th), 152 (PU) and 151 (3rd) were thrashed by the 148-rated Sir Des Champs.
So, if the stats hold good, the new ‘golden’ boy should be one of Double Ross (he’s on 148), Off The Ground or Taquin Du Seuil (needs soft ground), both on 147.
Taquin De Seuil punters could get 8.4 on BETDAQ last time I checked, when it was 14.0 Double Ross and 22.0 Off The Ground, all three marginally better than with bookmakers.
But Double Ross has three engagements at the meeting and Taquin De Seuil two, whereas Off The Ground has just the one. This one.
2.05 Cheltenham, Thursday (Pertemps Final): Jonjo O’Neill has trained the winner of this three times this century, 25-1 and 50-1 the last twice.
Those two were rated 20lb apart (off 120 and 140); one came to the race with form figures 00P0, the other 2222; one had had 25 hurdles runs, one only six. What chance have we got!
Well, the ratings lore of the race seems to be: carries 10st 8lb to 11st 7lb (six out of eight); 35 horses off 143 or more have all failed in the last 13 years.
Fingal Bay and Champagne West, two of the four market leaders with bookmakers, get black marks, since they are racing off 148 and 145.
Ladbrokes are intriguingly short about two Irish horses, Inish Meain and Clonard Lad. And, at 16-1, they are nine points lower than the consensus 25-1 about a horse called Milan Bound. Trained by? Jonjo O’Neill.
2.40 Cheltenham, Thursday (Ryanair Chase) The last three winners have been rated 165, 168 and 166, with six of the last nine already successful over course and distance..
Dynaste, Last Instalment and Menorah (169), Sizing Europe (167), Arvika Ligeonniere (166), Al Ferof (165) and First Lieutenant (164) are all round about the ratings parameter.
Last Instalment is expected to run in the Gold Cup and Arvika Ligeonniere and Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase, which leaves you with three of the first four in the BETDAQ market, of which Dynaste and Al Ferof are CD winners.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Al Ferof
3.20 Cheltenham, Thursday (Ladbrokes World Hurdle) The hot-pot rivals Annie Power and Big Buck’s, four in a row until absent in 2013, both have to defy the trends.
Big Buck’s would be only the second 11-year-old winner since 1972, and Annie Power the first to win with fewer than eight previous hurdles starts since Rustle in 1989 (Iris’s Gift had had eight in 2004), and probably the first ever to be so lightly raced and without a run beyond 21 furlongs.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: At Fishers Cross
TODAY’S RACING: FLYING FORM AWARDS WINCANTON PRIZE TO YELLOW BALL
4.05 Wincanton Benbens is back quickly after his Ludlow win a week ago, too quickly for a glass horse. His wins and seconds have been spaced out like this since November, 2009: November – June – December – March – December – February.
Thomas Wild was a lucky winner at Exeter last time out when the leader baulked at the paddock entrance, and was well held when he fell behind Flying Award early last season.
Flying Award has won two Nationals for me this year but Yellow Ball was the ‘moral’ when they met at Wincanton in January, giving the winner 5lb on heavy but beaten less than three lengths. I shall lay Benbens at 1.77 this morning and back Yellow Ball at 4.3
5.05 Wincanton: If ever there was a conundrum, it’s this race, which fields three CD winners, Rossa Parks, Webberys Dream and Milans Well.
Milans Well is two from two at Wincanton, both between January and April last year, but in the first of them two of his three rivals fell or unseated at two of the last three fences, and there was more mayhem in the second one.
The two leaders came down independently four out, hampering three of Milans Well’s four other rivals and leaving him clear.
The Limpley Stoke, Bath, stable of Neil Mulholland (Rossa Parks) is in winning form (3-9) and Victor Dartnall (Tolkeins Tango) is doing well right now, if only he had a better record at Wincanton (won nothing for nearly two years with 30 starters).
But their form on soft-heavy ground is Rossa Parks P0002 and Tolkeins Tango 00400, so Milans Well has a chance yet.
Mon Chevalier has been first and second in the 3 o’clock race in this card and it’s a bit late in the day – at age 11 – to try him over 21 furlongs.
So Milans Well’s problems may be Webberys Dream, carrying 24lb less than a year ago, and ex-hunter-chaser Mic Aubin, a glass horse but, if right today, more than a stone lower than for his early Rules runs and a winner of his only heavy-ground chase.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY 10pts BENBENS and BET 6pts win (nap) YELLOW BALL (4.05 Wincanton)
BET 7.5pts win ALLIED ANSWER and 4.5pts win (stakes saver) BLAKE DEAN (4.15 Carlisle)
BET 5.5pts win MILANS WELL (5.05 Wincanton)
BET 3pts win MIDNIGHT FEAST (5.55 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 6 x 1pt win doubles Yellow Ball (4.05 Wincanton), Milans Well (5.05 Wincanton), Midnight Feast (5.55 Kempton) and Sporting Gold (7.55 Kempton)
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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 4: STATS SUPPORT MY FAITH IN BRIAR HILL
1.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Triumph Hurdle): Trainers Hobbs, King, Henderson and Nicholls – with two apiece – dominated this for eight years from 2004 but the Irish broke back through Our Conor (Dessie Hughes)
Look for a Flat-bred (sire must have won a Group 1 or 2 race), with no more than three hurdles starts (7 out of 10) but with two successes already (6 out of 10).
In order of BETDAQ OFFERS, 5.5 Calipto, 14.5 Activial, 16.0 Rutherglen and 18.0 Pearl Castle fit the stats, but Rutherglen and Pearl Castle are stablemates from the 2012 winning yard and both have other Cheltenham entries.
2.05 Cheltenham, Friday (County Hurdle): Search out a young horse (five or six; they’re 8 out of 10), weighted below 11st (9-10) and trained in Ireland (6-7), preferably by a Mullins: Anthony, Thomas and Willie have bagged four since 2007.
The winning-ratings band is very narrow: here are the last eight winners by official rating: 134, 139, 139, 134, 135, 132, 135 and 131.
Ally Cascade, Art Of Payroll, Bayan, Dalasiri, Indevan, Massini’s Trap, Minella Foru, Vicky De L’Oasis and Waxie’s Dargle from 117 still in are the nine five and six year old Irish possibles in that band.
2.40 Cheltenham, Friday (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle): A tough race for a novice, with all bar one winner in the decade having previously won over 2m 5f or more and eight from nine were Graded-race winners.
Five out of eight already had a Cheltenham win on their CV, like these three from the front of the market, who all satisfy the other stats: Briar Hill, King’s Palace and Red Sherlock.
But be warned that, though Red Sherlock has been 7-1 with most bookies, he’s opposed out to 12-1 by Ladbrokes, and was 54.0 on BETDAQ when I checked the ante-post orange. He’s a lonely dog on a raft, drifted over my betting weir.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Briar Hill
3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup, Friday: The last 10 winners all came from the first three in the market. Nine out of 10 were aged seven, eight or nine, and five had had eight or nine steeplechase starts. Only Bobs Worth fits all these stats as the market stands now.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Silviniaco Conti, Rocky Creek, Harry Topper
4.40 Cheltenham, Friday (Martin Pipe Hurdle): Look for youngsters (ages five and six have won them all) from the top yards (Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins) within a narrow ratings band: 133, 134, 137, 139, 141.
5.15 Cheltenham, Friday (Grand Annual) Again, forget the old timers: six out of nine had had only four to seven chase starts, and only one winner in the decade was older than nine.
But the turnkey stat is that there has been no success from 11st or above in 14 seasons (and in 21 of the last 25 years).
TODAY’S BETS: SOLIX HAS THE CLASS TO TAKE THE GRAND MILITARY GOLD CUP
2.30 Sandown Coolbeg looks on his way back to form and well in here, 10lb better off for less than two lengths with the winner, Greywell Boy, on his third in this race last year.
Recent form means he is 8.0 and Greywell Boy 2.48 in a 105% BETDAQ orange this morning, but Greywell Boy has only ever won on soft-heavy and the ground is drying out at Esher, at least on the chase course.
Both Bullet Street and Sands Cove prefer a right-handed track and Bullet Street goes well fresh. As a six-year-old novice, he could have come on a lot in his 99 days’ absence.
3.05 Sandown (Grand Military Gold Cup) There are some well-qualified riders here: Harry Wallace (40%), Judy Sole (31%) and Sally Randel (25%) – who goes for a hat-trick in the opening hurdle – all have terrific records at Sandown Park.
Alex Michael has shared this race with those three in recent years, and Lucy Gardner has already hit the target – both big shots – for me in 2014 with a Somerset and Devon Nationals double on Flying Award.
But I don’t think much of the ammunition this afternoon, a bunch of losers who could do with some old-fashioned square-bashing.
In truth, both horse and rider will have been intensively trained for this pre-Cheltenham gold cup for the military, none more so than Polisky, whose trainer Paul Nicholls is 111231 with his runners in this. They even prep for the race, Polsky in a jumpers’ bumper at Kempton recently.
Bradley had six races inside a year in Grade-3 company but has been a flatterer and has done no better dropped in class since November. He has won a Royal Military Gold Cup over today’s course and distance and should be staying on up the hill, whereas Jack Bene, Le Reve, Marley Roca and the morning favourite, Solix, have won only over shorter.
However, Solix, who has shown some class as a runner in the Coral Cup and the Jewson at Cheltenham in the past, and in his more recent fifth in the Tommy Whittle and fourth in the Great Yorkshire, has an attribute which often wins these races. He can go with the pace. Hold-up horses tend to get too far out of their ground under amateur riders.
Harry Wallace, captain, 29th Commando Regiment, Royal Horse Artillery, has competed in the Grand Military Gold Cup every year since 2003, until last year, and hasn’t ridden here since he won today’s race in 2012 on Masked Man. At the double, then, captain!
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Solix, Bradley and Polisky, which are 3.75, 4.4 and 5.0 on BETDAQ in a 106% orange as I write. Solix, at eight, has a touch of class and the potential to improve.
3.40 Sandown The changing ground sees Paul Moloney switch from heavy-going winner American Life to Valid Reason, whose stable is just emerging from the doldrums with three placed from the last four.
The three recent scorers – Spencer Lea, Waldorf Salad and Westaway – have form restricted to deep terrain, so I make Valid Reason (huge at 16.5 on BETDAQ as I write) my Outsider Of The Day, with a fair chance of a place at least, three chances in a nine-horse race.
4.35 Ayr Lackamon, Jimmy The Hat, Mister Marker and Rossini’s Dancer have acted on heavy but never won on it.
They face Wicklow Lad (up 16lb since New Year’s Day) and Stormin Exit, both winners on heavy at Ayr itself. Good chance for Stormin Exit.
5.10 Ayr New North Yorks trainer Rebecca Menzies has had her first runners this year: five winners! Can’t be bad. Samson Collonges – at 8.6 on BETDAQ – blipped last time but ran a cracker at Towcester before that.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.8pts win BULLET STREET (2.30 Sandown)
BET 7.2pts win (nap) SOLIX (3.05 Sandown)
BET 1.3pts win and 2.7pts place VALID REASON (3.40 Sandown)
BET 5.2pts win STORMIN EXIT (4.35 Ayr)
BET 2.6pts win SAMSON COLLONGES (5.10 Ayr)
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2.05 Sandown (National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final) Six-year-olds have the right amount of experience for this (6 wins in 8 seasons), as the quality of the race has gone up.
Four of the last five winners were rated 128, 130, 132 and 128, a narrow parameter in which you’ll find just five horses, two of them six-year-olds, this afternoon.
You need to be with the big yards, which have quality in depth to choose from. So it is that only once in 10 years have the usual suspects (Henderson, Pipe, Nicholls, O’Neill and Co) been vanquished.
David Pipe and Paul Nicholls are the only trainers represented today with horses near the top of the markets for the big novice hurdles at Cheltenham
And only Caesar Milan (behind Champagne West) and Gone Too Far (rear view of Vaniteux) of this final field have taken on big-time Cheltenham contenders.
I’m opposing David Pipe – Doctor Harper and Knight Of Noir are both giving weight to all – who has managed to field six out of seven losing favourites in the last two weeks.
Caesar Milan’s quick runs worry me, and he’s a horse that’s bled, had ringworm, needs a tongue-tie. Gone Too Far needs the ground to dry out. He’s has not been jumping well on a sticky surface.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Mud-lover Horizontal Speed (8.4 on BETDAQ this morning) has more hurdles experience – six runs – than any other horse in the race and has had this as his target all along.
2.20 Wolverhampton (Ladbrokes Lady Wulfruna Stakes) I doff my barbisio (hat) whenever I pass West Ilsley, out of respect for that doyen of trainers, Major Dick Hern, who handled Troy to win the 1979 Derby.
I have to report that the galloping major, who was following in the illustrious footsteps of Jack Colling at the fabulous Berkshire base, never came to tea at Troy House, the home I bought on the proceeds of my hefty punt.
It’s an Irish time of year – yes, the invasion on Cheltenham has begun – and maybe Irishman Denis Coakley, who trains at West Ilsley, intends to win his festival wallet with Gabriel’s Lad in this Ladbrokes-sponsored Listed.
Gabriel’s Lad has landed a win – on Kempton AW – and a second in a big sprint at Newmarket first run back in the last two seasons. He climbed in distance from sprints to today’s 7f and in class from handicaps to run in a Group-2 last backend, again at Newmarket.
The 2010 and 2011 champion jockey Paul Hanagan, who rode him in that Group 2, afterwards declared: ‘This is a very good horse and there will be a big race in him next year.’
Marco Botti is 1001 in today’s race, and 11 of his last 19 runners have finished in the frame. Hasopop, who kept Listed and Group company on turf, had a promising recent run back at Lingfield.
Another Group performer, Highland Knight, usually needs a couple of runs, and Andrew Balding may do better with Listed placed Intransigent, just returned from campaigning in Dubai.
Bertiewhittle, Listed second at Kempton in November, and also back from Dubai to run a close third at Lingfield a fortnight ago. He is one of those much-loved horses who is forgiven anything by Joe Punter.
But I can’t forgive him a long run as a bridesmaid last season, with form figures 20200222303. I might still be interested if he hadn’t gone up in the weights without winning, 19lb higher than his last success way back in the summer of 2011.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I‘m a lay Bertiwhittle. I’d much rather take an early position Gabriel’s Lad. I mean not only early in today’s market – 6.8 on BETDAQ, as I write – but also early in the Lad’s 2014 career.
He’s had not a lot of racing for his age – 16 runs, with a very solid nine times in the first two – and he is the first of my horses to follow for the Flat 2014. In other words, whatever happens today, I think we’ll get out money back. And some.
2.55 Wolverhampton (Ladbrokes Lincoln Trial Handicap) Third is the best the winner of this could do in the Lincoln itself in the last five years. Only one horse drawn lower than six has won in 10 years: gates 9 to 13 are six from 10.
Lincoln contenders are last year’s winner of this, Strictly Silver, the 2012 Victoria Cup winner, Global Village (well drawn in 12), Cambridgeshire third Tres Coronas (likely to need today’s run), Star Links, Tellovoi, Whispering Warrior, Postscript.
Alan Bailey, who’s won it twice in the last three years, goes for back-to-back wins with Strictly Silver, which doesn’t happen in this race, Silver has been out of form lately, including when visors were fitted last time, and is badly drawn in 2.
Older horses – past six – rarely have the speed for this (strike rate 1-15 in the last five years), and it’s time to oppose the nine-year-old Noble Citizen (drawn 4), who’s scooted to a hat-trick round Southwell but is up 18lb and his Wolver form is 00.
At the front of the BETDAQ market this morning, Alfred Hutchinson gives weight all round; Whispering Warrior (badly drawn in 3) has always struggled when raised above class 4.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Fashion Line, 7.4 on the Daq as I right, is up in grade, too, but lightly raced and well drawn in 10, getting weight from all bar Sky Khan, who is prepping for Cheltenham (four entries)!
Fashion Line’s trainer, Michael Bell, has started the year with a 50% record (4-8) on AW, 100% with four-year-olds-plus.
3.15 Sandown (Imperial Cup) The last 10 winners, and 27 out of 31, have carried less than 11st. Only four successful in those 31 seasons have been older than seven.
Olympian (1993 Coral Cup) and Blowing Wind (2002 Mildmay) for Martin Pipe and Gaspara (2007 Fred Winter) for David have all pulled off big bonuses by following up their Imperial Cup win at Cheltenham.
The Pipes’ Baltimore Rock looks ideally placed for the first leg today, if only the stable had been showing better form.
Champion bumper runner-ups New Year’s Eve (2012) and Regal Encore (2013) both have outstanding chances. Vibrato Valtat, runner-up to Supreme Novice fancy Vaniteux at Sandown, has to win this to get into the County Hurdle.
The form of his Exeter win would have been franked by the runner-up my nap, Tiqris, last Saturday, but he was brought down when making his challenge
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: What I like about Vibrato Valtat and New Year’s Eve (14.5) is that both jump out of the mud and can quicken in heavy ground. New Year’s Eve has won over further, also a good signd for Sandown, with that notorious hill finish.
3.50 Sandown (NH Flat race) A race of 10 previous winners but subsequent second in the Aintree Festival bumper is the best any winner of this has done. It’s a race for pinstickers and those with insider information.
Terrestrial-TV viewers have enough to put up with as punters with the plethora of small-field pattern races, without imposing mares’ bumpers on us. Back to the end of the card please, you breeders!
DAQMAN’S BETS (All win singles staked to win 30 points. Lays step up to 20-point bankers at Cheltenham and others will now be ‘lays of the day’)
BET 4pts win HORIZONTAL SPEED (2.05 Sandown)
BET 5pts win (nap) GABRIEL’S LAD (2.20 Wolverhampton)
BET 10pts win VIBRATO VALTAT and 2.2pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) NEW YEAR’S EVE (3.15 Sandown)
BET 3pts win FASHION LINE (2.55 Wolverhampton)
LAYS OF THE DAY: Bertiwhittle (2.20 Wolverhampton), Noble Citizen (2.55 Wolverhampton)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: De La Bech (2.40 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win double Gabriel’s Lad (2.20 Wolverhampton) and Fashion Line (2.55 Wolverhampton)
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LEINSTER NATIONAL: DAQMAN LINES UP A 1-2 WITH LOS AMIGOS AND FOLSOM BLUE
Tom Dreaper was out on his own. But the man who handled Arkle and Flyingbolt seems just about to lose his position as Ireland’s leading Cheltenham Festival trainer.
Dreaper leads Willie Mullins 26-22 though not for long as Willie’s wonders line up this week: Ballycasey, Briar Hill, Champagne Fever Faugheen, Felix Yonger, Hurricane Fly, Ivan Grozny, Quevega, Vautour and Wicklow Brave. To name but a few, as they say!
Tom’s son, Jim Dreaper, who hasn’t a single runner at the Festival, would be more than happy if Los Amigos could win today’s Leinster National and he would put the family name back on the map big time, if he could capture the Aintree version with Alan Potts’ Goonyella, who will clash there with On His Own, to be saddled by Mullins for the Wylie family.
The Alan Potts connection has Sizing Europe, Sizing Australia and Smashing in the front rank of the betting at Cheltenham this coming week.
But Family Potts will raise their ‘bins’ to watch Goonyella’s Aintree rival, Family Wylie’s On His Own, as he takes part in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
It was On His Own’s defeat of Los Amigos in the Thyestes Chase that helped the Wylies decide to run him in the Gold Cup and for the trainer to say: ‘This horse can win a National.’
Success for Los Amigos today would be good news and bad news for Jim Dreaper, a triumph for the Dreaper name and a boost for Goonyella but equally a National pointer to On His Own.
Los Amigos could be a National horse himself, but we’re talking the Irish National this year. He’s all stayer, but still only seven, same age as his main rival today, Folsom Blues.
Folsom Blues was in his element when winning the Punchestown Grand National Trial (3m 4f) a year or so back, and faced the very smart Mozoltov on his run back over a mile shorter.
I think his training trajectory is to peak for the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse over Easter but, with plenty of use made of him, could be a threat to Los Amigos today.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Los Amigos, representing the top-class form of Gold Cup and Grand National contender On His Own, and the Punchestown Trial winner Folsom Blue seem to have stamina to burn, and their form is so far ahead of the rest of the field, I feel justified in dutching them, though the combined odds are short.
Barring mishap today, I shall continue to back them both, with Punchestown and Fairyhouse in mind if, as expected, Goonyella leaves the big Irish staying prizes to them and goes to Aintree.
FESTIVAL BANKERS: DAQMAN WILL BID FOR DOUBLE BETDAQ VALUE AT CHELTENHAM
BANKER BETS: Starting on Tuesday, banker bets will have 30-point stakes. Target 100 points profit at Cheltenham. This is in keeping with a general raising of stakes to win-30 at big meetings. Bankers were lagging behind.
BANKER LAYS: Similarly, 10-point lays will have double the stakes (20 points) for banker lays at big meetings. Target 100 points profit at Cheltenham.
DOUBLE VALUE (1): When Daqman finds particularly value, he will double the stake to take advantage of the edge.
DOUBLE VALUE (2): Daqman welcomes the news of the ‘double bonus’ for Cheltenham doubles. He’ll be marking your card every day.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.5pts win LOS AMIGOS and 4pts win FOLSOM BLUE (5.00 Naas)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double Kilcooley (nap, 2.10 Market Rasen) and Act Alone (2.40 Market Rasen), plus 4 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles the same two with both Los Amigos and Folsom Blue (5.00 Naas)
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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: 30 FACTS THAT WILL CHANGE YOUR BETTING
COURSE: Nine of the last 10 Arkle (Tuesday) winners had won or been placed at the festival before.
* The last 14 Arkle winners to run in the Champion Chase (Wednesday) have all been placed.
FORM: Your World Hurdle (Thursday) bet must have won more than half its hurdles starts. Those with 50% success or less are 0-99.
* Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runners that had not previously won three times are 0-68.
FAVOURITES: Only four out of 22 Arkle (Tuesday) favourites have won.
* Irving and Vauteur are 9-4 and 3-1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Tuesday) but only three of the last 17 to start at 3-1 or shorter have won.
* A total of 26 of the last 28 Neptune Novices’ Hurdle (Wednesday) winners were from the front six in the SP market.
* Since its inception in 1959, the top three in the Champion Chase (Wednesday) betting have won 45 times.
GOING: Melodic Rendezvous (Champion Hurdle, Tuesday) has form on heavy ground of 211111.
* Balthazar King (Cross-Country, Wednesday) has form at Cheltenham on good ground, good-to-soft at worse, since April 2011 of 1111211, still standing.
THE IRISH: Irish-breds have won 17 out of 21 champion bumpers (Wednesday), 16 of them trained in Ireland.
* Horses that did not win last time out are 0-53 in the bumper.
* Irish stables have won the Byrne Group Plate (Thursday) only once since 1951.
* It’s 31 years since an Irish winner of the Kim Muir (Thursday)
OUTSIDERS: Was there ever a shock like Jonjo O’Neill’s 50-1 Pertemps Final (Thursday) winner, Creon (2004). Said Jonjo afterwards: ‘If you’d given me 500-1, I wouldn’t have backed it.’
* The last 10 Pertemps Final winners have all started at double-figure odds.
* Six of the last eight Champion Bumper (Wednesday) winners have started 40-1, 33-1, 25-1, 16-1, 14-1 and 12-1.
* The Fred Winter (Wednesday) has thrown up 40-1 (twice), 25-1, 20-1, 14-1 and 12-1 scorers in the last decade.
* Winners of the Byrne Group Hurdle (Thursday) in the 10 years have included 66-1, 50-1, 33-1, 18-1, 14-1 and 12-1 (twice)
QUALIFIERS: Only one of the last 17 Pertemps Final (Thursday) winners had won a qualifier.
* The last six Ryanair (Thursday) winners had run in the King George.
RACE: The last 24 Cross Country (Wednesday) winners had all run in cross-country races before.
* Ten of the last 13 Neptune (Wednesday) winners won either a bumper or a point-to-point.
* The last 14 Gold Cup (Friday) winners had already won a Grade 1.
* Only one winner of the Foxhunter (Friday) in 20 years had not won under Rules.
RATINGS: The leading novice-chaser in the official ratings is Dodging Bullets but the Racing Post top spot goes to Felix Yonger.
* Both the official handicapper and the Post have Silviniaco Conti top in the Gold Cup.
* Hurricane Fly is Champion Hurdle top-rated, officially, but behind joint leaders My Tent Or Yours and The New One with the Post.
* The last eight winners of the County Hurdle (Friday) were rated 131, 135, 132, 135, 134, 139, 139, 134.
TRAINERS: David Pipe and Donald McCain between them have gone 61 consecutive losers at the festival.
WEIGHT: 13 out of 14 winners of the Festival Chase (Tuesday) and the last 14 winners of the Grand Annual (Friday) carried less than 11st.
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW
Tuesday: TRIFOLIUM (Arkle Challenge Trophy), MY TENT OR YOURS and OUR CONOR (both Champion Hurdle)
Wednesday: LE BEC (Arkle Trophy), BRIAR HILL (Neptune Novices’ Hurdle)
Thursday: AL FEROF (Ryanair), AT FISHER’S CROSS (World Hurdle)
Friday: SILVINIACO CONTI, HARRY TOPPER (Gold Cup)
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST BETS
ANNIE POWER (3.4pts win at 9.8 on BETDAQ) for the Mares Hurdle on Tuesday.
BALTHAZAR KING (4.5pts win at 7.6 on BETDAQ) for the Cheltenham Cross-Country on Wednesday.
FIRST MOHICAN (1.5pts win at 20.0 on BETDAQ) for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on Tuesday.
JOSSES HILL (2pts win at 16.0 on BETDAQ) for the Supreme Noviecs Hurdle on Tuesday.
GEVREY CHAMBERTIN (1.75pts win at 18.0 on BETDAQ) for the RSA Chase
on Wednesday.
LAST INSTALMENT (3pts win at 11.0 on BETDAQ) for the Cheltenham Gold Cup
on Friday.
UN DE SCEAUX (1.8pts win at 17.0 on BETDAQ plus 1.25pts win at 25.0) for the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday.
DAQMAN’S BETS TODAY
BET 8pts win CHILL FACTOR (2.20 Taunton)
BET 8pts win ATTENTE DE SIVOLA (2.50 Taunton)
BET 5pts win SUDDEN WISH (3.00 Plumpton)
BET 8pts win GIGONDAS (3.10 Stratford)
BET 1pt win and place PASSATO (3.40 Stratford)
BET 4pts win (nap) GILES CROSS (3.50 Taunton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pts win double and 1pt win treble GIGONDAS (3.10 Stratford), FOGGY’S WALL (3.20 Taunton), GILES CROSS (3.50 Taunton)
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1.30 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): You need a tough type to win this flat out, hills to climb, big-field-bullying race. That’s why it’s gone to monsters like Flyingbolt, L’ Escargot and Brave Inca, ahead of their Gold Cups and Champion Hurdles.
You need a three-time winner, with big-field success, Graded-race quality and a bumper background. The last three had all four facets and two of them – Champagne Fever and Al Ferof – are favourites for the Arkle and the Ryanair at this very meeting. Say no more!
There has been a lot of talk about the handicapper Gilgamboa but he’s out of the first 10 on official ratings, and about the Grade-3 at Newbury won by Splash Of Ginge.
But he was carrying 18lb less than today and the ‘moral’ winner of that race was Irish Saint, giving Splash of Ginge 18lb but beaten only about two lengths.
All that race did was frank the form of Irish Saint’s stablemate, Irving, who had already beaten ‘Ginge’ the equivalent of about 10 lengths at Ascot.
The snag with Irving is that he lacks the street cred of a big-field success, unless you count a lowly 13-runner class-4-novice at Taunton. He has never raced in a bumper and, as a flat-track winner (Ascot, Kempton), his turn will come at Aintree.
Willie Mullins’ Vautour vanquished a 30-runner field on his hurdles debut, is by the same sire as Sir Des Champs and Quevega, has won Grade 1 and Grade 2, will like the sounder surface and will gallop on up the hill.
Wicklow Brave and Vaniteux have yet to run in a Graded contest of any kind but the ‘Brave’ still looks a strong number-2 for Mullins if he can get his jumping together.
He is behind Vautour on a line through Lieutenant Colonel, who swerves a rematch with the Mullins boys, but he beat Western Boy (won only twice) a long way in a bumper.
I prefer Josses Hill to stablemate Vaniteux. Josses Hill has won only twice but was just pipped by one of tomorrow’s Neptune favourites, Royal Boy, in the Grade-1 Tolworth Hurdle; the drying ground is a bonus and the trainer says she has come to herself in the last week.
The enigma of the race is The Liquidator, Champion Bumper fourth last season and winner of the CD trial for this in November but a flop in the Tolworth. Has David Pipe got him back?
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Vautour has everything: trainer, jockey, all the credentials and the breeding to go on from this. I’m stepping up my stake to win 40 points. My main home defender is Josses Hill, 20.0 this morning on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3-4: Vautour 1, Josses Hill 2, Wicklow Brave 3, Irving 4.
DAQMAN’S BETS: LAY 10pts IRVING and BET 10pts win VAUTOUR and (previously ante-post) 2pts win JOSSES HILL @ 16.0, with 1.5pts lost on a non-runner. Now add: 2pts win at 20.0 and 2pts place JOSSES HILL.
2.05 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy): Though Rock On Ruby (WON 11-1) was a 17.0 BETDAQ beauty for me in the Champion Hurdle, I can’t have him here, trying to rock and roll with the youngsters at his age.
Apart from an ordinary year for the race in the 1980s, only Sir Ken has gone on to win an Arkle at the age of nine since it began as the Cotswold Chase in 1946.
Rock On Ruby is no Sir Ken, who won the Champion Hurdle three years running and did not give away his record of 16 successive victories until Big Buck’s 58 years later.
Ruby’s current rating, 10lb clear of this Arkle field, is well over the top. The handicapper had him on 170 over hurdles and has kept him on a similar pedestal for two novice-chase wins on flat tracks, 10 lengths ahead of the 150-rated Mr Mole, a poor jumper, in a two-horse race and the equivalent of 11 lengths up on the 98-rated Lindsay’s Dream.
You could equally say that Champagne Fever has had a raw deal from the handicapper as to the merits of his Supreme Novice Hurdle success. Though he beat My Tent Or Yours (currently on 167) and Jezki (162), he remains on 157 over hurdles and 158 over fences.
He would be starting a very short price today, had he not ‘hit one hard’ at Leopardstown over Christmas, a beaten odds-on favourite, finishing behind Trifolium.
Trifolium – third in the 2012 Supreme Novice – went on to frank the Leopardstown form by winning the Arkle Trial in January, when Bryan Cooper chose to ride him over Mozoltov (third). Thursday’s JLT favourite, Felix Yonger was second, Ted Veale fourth.
Willie Mullins still prefers Champagne Fever for this and has made life difficult for us by keeping him at home since the Leopardstown mishap, and rubs our noses in it with his laid-back ‘hopefully, he’ll go well.’
Meanwhile Trifolium hasn’t stood still. Nor has Dodging Bullets, though it’s hard to see the Supreme Novice ninth doing a 50-lengths turnaround with Champagne Fever.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: You have to decide: did that one ‘fault’ around Leopardstown knock Champagne Fever out of this and hand the reins to Trifolium, who put in an exhibition round in the Arkle Trial?
If so then the 15-8 on at Leopardstown about Champagne Fever, winner of the Champion Bumper on good ground and of the Supreme Novice on soft, was madness. Of course it wasn’t. He’s still the king.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Champagne Fever 1, Trifolium 2, Rock On Ruby 3.
DAQMAN’S BETS: 10pts (to win 30) CHAMPAGNE FEVER (2.05 Cheltenham)
2.40 Cheltenham (Festival Chase) You can spend all day on these handicaps but, in the end, since – in theory – the handicapper has had years of their racing life to assess these animals, you have to ask the trends to guide you.
In this case, 13 of the last 14 winners came from below 11st. I also spotted in my stats research that four of the last five winners had been dropped between 5lb and 10lb in the ratings.
Tour Des Champs is one today, 10lb lower than when he ran in this last year, and an incredible 27lb better off with the winner, Golden Chieftain.
He was only six years old then and has since run up to the very smart Balthazar King over CD on good ground in October when last year’s fourth in today’s race, Tullamore Dew, was third behind him. That all smacks of improvement.
If anything is unexposed to the handicapper, that animal is going to be seven or eight and lightly raced. He is also going to show a penchant for a left-handed track, and Cheltenham is no Wrong Turn for Tony Martin’s candidate, who has been at his best anti-clockwise around Leopardstown.
Though he’s 11 now, the 2012 winner, Alfie Sherrin, has been saved up for another tilt at this and the ground has come for him
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Wrong Turn 1, Tour Des Champs 2, Alfie Sherrin 3.
DAQMAN’S BETS: 2.2pts win and place WRONG TURN at 14.5 on BETDAQ and 1.8pts win and place TOUR DES CHAMPS (2.40 Cheltenham)
3.20 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle) Hurricane Fly is only as good at Cheltenham as the horses he’s beaten. Binocular’s gone. Zarkandar’s gone. Rock On Ruby’s gone chasing. The old boys’ party is over.
Jezki in the Leopardstown Ryanair in December and Our Conor in the Irish Champion Hurdle in January have both run up to Hurricane Fly recently. I see Jezki as just short of top class and Triumph Hurdle winner Our Conor – he’s only five – needing another year.
But The New One has already beaten both Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar as far as, or further than, Hurricane Fly, and would have beaten My Tent Or Yours in the Christmas Hurdle barring one bad jump.
The longer Neptune Hurdle (The New One won) is a better Cheltenham-stamina guide than the Supreme (My Tent Or Yours second) and the Triumph (Our Conor).
Hurricane Fly has been one of the hurdling greats with 19 Grade-1 wins but beating the same horses over and again does not put him in the same league as a Hattons Grace (1949-51) or a Sea Pigeon (1980-81), who both won it at the age of 10.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: 1 The New One, 2 Our Conor, 3 Hurricane Fly.
DAQMAN’S BETS: LAY 10pts HURRICANE FLY on BETDAQ and BET: 10pts win THE NEW ONE at 4.2 (3.05pts loss ante-post)
4.00 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle) I can’t recall many races where the favourite is 81lb in front of a rank outsider (Epee Celeste) at 1000.0 on BETDAQ.
L’Unique is an Aintree horse. Cailin Annamh and Highland Retreat prefer to go right-handed. Sirene D’Ainay was run out of it by Quevega in 2013, and the French will labour on the drying ground.
Cockney Sparrow, big and raw last year, got within three lengths of My Tent Or Yours in November and was only two lengths down to Annie Power at Doncaster when she fell. This extra trip should suit, distance wise and make jumping easier.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: For me, there’s a banker win and a banker place in one race. Quevega is said to have had a better home prep this year than ever, according to Willie Mullins.
Cockney Sparrow is just now making up into a real racemare, and is massive at 12.0 the win in a 101% list in the amazing BETDAQ orange, allowing cheap cover on the favourite. And the place bet will return three times the win price about Quevega.
DAQMAN’S BANKER 1-2: Quevega 1, Cockney Sparrow 2
DAQMAN’S BETS: I made Quevega a 30-point banker to win 28 points, covered by 2.7 points win Cockney Sparrow at 12.0, plus 7.3 points place.
4.40 Cheltenham (NH Chase) This goes to seven and eight year olds for stables that can handle stayers, notably Jonjo O’Neill, who saddled four winners out of five in this between 2002-7 but does he know the race has shot up in quality?
His two last winners scored off ratings of 123 and 136, and this level was maintained through 2008-2010 with 127, 129 and 130 horses winning it.
But in the last three seasons, you’ve needed 150, 146 and 151 animals, all three placed in Graded hurdles or chases – and requiring a stallion stamina-index of at least 12.0 – with the race this year raised yet again to a class-1 Listed.
I, for one, miss the old cavalry charge of a four-mile ‘Chelters National‘ with big-odds winners (40-1 and 33-1 twice from 2005-7). Jonjo seems wide awake to the changes, saddling Shutthefrontdoor, an Accordion (stamina index 12.0) rated 146.
Shotgun Paddy has a higher rating but I’m not so keen on his family and his trainer says he’s ‘a galloper who needs soft ground.’
Foxrock looks stamina-packed, by Flemensfirth out of a Roselier mare, but it’s tricky to find another six-year-old winner (Tricky Trickster, in fact, in 2009, the only one since 1989 and only the third in 60 years).
Firm Order and Midnight Prayer have bags of stamina in the pedigree.
Herdsman and Suntiep are improving but seem to need the mud. According To Trev ran a stinker in the Great Yorkshire but is another Accordion, likes Cheltenham, and handles top of the ground.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: On ratings Shotgun Paddy, Shutthefrontdoor and Foxrock are clear but there are holes in all three and we simply don’t know which one will last the 4m.
I shall take an improver who stays until the mother-in-law has run out of breath. Herdsman – 26.0 on BETDAQ – is also ridden by the current best amateur (21% strike rate), Robbie McNamara, and with a yard that can surprise with its stayers. Is this one their new Aurora’s Encore!
5.15 Cheltenham There’s pace up front from Baby Mix, Buthelezi, Festive Affair, Present View and Up To Something.
Art Of Logistics, Buywise, Ohio Gold and Present View prefer to race right-handed. Stamina is an issue for Ahyaknowyerself, Pendra and Tony Star.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: By process of elimination, I am with Ericht (11.5 on BETDAQ), fifth in last year’s Coral Cup, and County Hurdle third, Manyriverstocross (11.0).
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Manyriverstocross 1, Ericht 2, King Vuvuzela 3
DAQMAN’S BETS: 3pts win each ERICHT and MANYRIVERSTOCROSS
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY 10pts IRVING and BET (to win 40) 10pts win VAUTOUR and (previously ante-post) 2pts win JOSSES HILL @ 16.0 (1.5pts lost on a non-runner) plus 2pts win and 2pts place JOSSES HILL at 20.0 (1.30 Cheltenham)
BET: 10pts win (nap) CHAMPAGNE FEVER (2.05 Cheltenham)
BET: 2.2pts win and place WRONG TURN at 14.5 and 1.8pts win and place TOUR DES CHAMPS at 17.5 (2.40 Cheltenham)
LAY 10pts HURRICANE FLY and BET: 10pts win THE NEW ONE at 4.2 (3.05pts loss ante-post) (3.20 Cheltenham)
BANKER 1-2: BET 30pts win QUEVEGA, plus 2.7pts win and 7.3pts place COCKNEY SPARROW (3.4pts loss on non-runner) (4.00 Cheltenham)
BET: 2pts win and place HERDSMAN at 26.0 (4.40 Cheltenham)
BET: 3pts win on each ERICHT (11.5) and MANYRIVERSTOCROSS at 11.0 (5.15 Cheltenham)
DOUBLE-YOUR-MONEY DAQ DOUBLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles VAUTOUR (1.30 Cheltenham) and CHAMPAGNE FEVER (3.05 Cheltenham) with ERICHT and MANYRIVERSTOCROSS (5.15 Cheltenham)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Trifolium (2.05 Cheltenham) My Tent Or Yours, Our Conor (3.20 Cheltenham)
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WHO GOES THERE? THE BIGGEST HANDICAP CERTAINTY IN TRAINING
I’m doing my BETDAQ ‘double’ double big time today. I need to make a few grand so I can put in an offer for a horse called Victor Hewgo, before anyone else spots that he’s seemingly the next best thing to an Arkle winner.
The little-known northern nine-year-old has been runner-up this year, first to Western Warhorse, then to Holywell, both big winners on the opening day of Cheltenham. A blushing handicapper must have his rating wrong by around 20lb!
1.30 Cheltenham (Neptune Novices’ Hurdle): This is the race that last season produced The New One who, in 2015, may be facing Faugheen among his Champion Hurdle opponents, the principal Willie Mullins gladiator here from 11 who were prepared for this novice-stayers’ arena.
Faugheen fits all the stats as a Graded-level three-time hurdles winner (24 out of 27), first or second last time out (29-30), with added recent trends of bumper form (86%) and trained in Ireland (50%) on his CV.
But you have to make two assumptions here. That Faugheen is better than the bare form – you can’t even say ‘beat nothing but did it well’ because his jumping has been moderate at times – and that he’s better than Rathvinden. There’s just a pound in it, according to the official handicapper.
But the Pipe horse, Red Sherlock, was always holding Rathvinden in the Neptune Trial for this in January. Son of the superb racemare Lady Cricket, he is by the same sire as Annie Power.
Team Pipe’s poor Festival form in recent years turned to triumph yesterday when Western Warhorse claimed Champagne Fever on the line in the Arkle. Those who back Westerners on good ground were laughing at 33-1.
My outsider to get into the three is Lieutenant Colonel, 15.0 on BETDAQ this morning. Considering he’s a Kayf Tara, he’s shown speed over 2m and should be much more at home over the extra trip. A good second to Vautour in December.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Faugheen has all the credentials but lacks the form of Red Sherlock, who has already beaten little Rathvinden. The race should play to the strengths of Lieutenant Colonel, unexposed at the trip.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Red Sherlock 1, Lieutenant Colonel 2, Faugheen 3.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 30 points): 7.5pts win RED SHERLOCK, 2pts win and place LIEUTENANT COLONEL and 5.75pts win (stakes saver) FAUGHEEN.
2.05 Cheltenham (RSA Chase): Education, education, education! Ballycasey has not passed his exams. Six of the last seven winners had all had nine previous jumps starts under Rules and 80% in the decade had already won over at least 3m.
Not so, Ballycasey. Not so Don Cossack, who ran up to him in the P J Moriarty, after beating Carlingford Lough in the Drinmore. Morning Assembly, who beat Don Cossack on that one’s chase debut, but was second to Carlingford Lough over Christmas, is also short on experience.
They’re all beating each other, all of a heap! And the questions we seek to answer – does Paul Nichols have a Denman (2007) and does Willie Mullins have a Cooldine (2009)? – are tough as a Dara O’Briain school of hard sums.
It’s the trappiest RSA I can remember in years. It reminds me of the Star of Mohaison season (2006) when the Nicholls’ beast came from a Fontwell novices’ chase, beat the form horses, beat the stats, to win at 14-1.
Is this a case of play it again, Sam? Maybe Sam Winner, who’s scored over further, and on good ground, is the winner! His form at Cheltenham, still standing, is 1140331 and he’s won over further (even had an entry in the 4m NH Chase).
Stamina is also no worry for Smad Place, in the ‘three’ in two World Hurdles. Not much between him and Sam Winner on Newbury form but that was on heavy ground.
If in doubt in these championship events, look for a Presenting or an Oscar. That would be Ballycasey and O’Faolain’s Boy.
With the Cheltenham hill in mind, I checked out the videos on this field, and it was an eye-opener to see that, in both races he won, Morning Assembly was overtaken but fought back to win. Yet Carlingford Lough was too powerful for him over 3m at Leopardstown
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Morning Assembly, in front of Ballycasey over hurdles, is tough as they make ‘em but was ground down by Carlingford Lough (9.4 on BETDAQ) over Christmas.
Sam Winner (14.5) and Smad Place (8.4) are close together on heavy-ground form. Both prefer today’s terrain. Both love Cheltenham.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3-4: Carlingford Lough 1, Smad Place 2, Sam Winner 3, Ballycasey 4.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 30): 4pts win SMAD PLACE, 3.5pts win CARLINGFORD LOUGH, 2.2pts win and place SAM WINNER
2.40 Cheltenham (Coral Cup): Smashing! ‘A grand, bonny little horse,’ is Paul Townend’s description of him, but is he man enough, big enough for Cheltenham?
Well, we saw a good little ‘un yesterday, in the irrepressible Quevega, and Smashing is in the right ratings range, but Ruby Walsh prefers another Willie Mullins’, Indevan, and both have drifted like lonely dogs on a raft, over my betting weir for the stable at 25.0 and 30.0, as I write.
The seven others in the winning ratings-parameter include the Greatwood winner on today’s course, Dell ‘Arca, who ran a cracker in another big-field handicap at Newbury in February.
Near the top of the handicap, Alan King, who had the one-two last year, runs the second, Meister Eckhart (6lb higher but ‘a proper horse’ he says) but he also saddles Vendor, the Fred Winter third in 2012.
Looked his old self when winning at Newbury after a wind op and again there when third to Dell ‘Arca over the minimum, giving him weight.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BETS: Alan King may have this one bottled up, but whether his genie is the well-handicapped VENDOR or previously-placed MEISTER ECKHART does not require a decision from you because you can get 16.5 and 21.0 respectively in a fabulous 105% BETDAQ market, requiring only 3.5 points split between them for one to return 30.
3.20 Cheltenham, (Champion Chase): Barry Geraghty, who was king for a day in the Cheltenham amphitheatre yesterday, is 131211 in this since 2005 and Captain Conan was not at his best behind Sire De Grugy in December.
He’s beaten ‘Sire’ in the past and has won over further, which is also a confidence booster for jockey – and punter – with the Cheltenham hill in mind.
This is not a Master Minded year (2008-9) or a Sprinter Sacre procession (2013), and Sizing Europe, Somersby and Wishfull Thinking, who were around in those days, all have to do a Moscow Flyer (2005) and win for the double-figure-age group. I doubt they are up to it.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BETS: I’m a Captain Conan man in what the market says is a two-horse race with Sire De Grugy. In that case 6.0, particularly in a 101% orange, is great value.
4.00 Cheltenham, (Cross-Country): The same horses used to win this year on year (Spot The Differemce, Garde Champetre), revealing the genius of Enda Bolger at training them for this discipline.
We are overdue for a sequence horse and Big Shu, Balthazar King and Sizing Australia have all won it before.
Balthazar King has form at Cheltenham on good ground, good-to-soft at worse, since April 2011 of 1111211, still standing.
Big Shu is as tough as they make ‘em; in fact, his family goes back to the Gold Cup and Grand National winner, L’Escargot.
But the stats say you need a horse off 10st 9lb or less (6 out of 8), which is a strong pointer to Any Currency, a narrow second in a similar CD x-country in December, and third in November. On both occasions, the ground was riding good.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3 Balthazar King 1, Big Shu 2, Any Currency 3
DAQMAN’S BETS: Already ante-post 7.6 BALTHAZAR KING. Now I’ll add 2.5pts win and place ANY CURRENCY at 13.0
4.40 Cheltenham (Fred Winter) The last two races usually throw up big-odds winners. This one has had 40-1 (twice), 25-1, 20-1, 14-1 and 12-1 scorers in the last decade. I usually make two lists for this:
Horses in the frame in Graded races: Akdam, Azza, Clarcam, Gerdago, Ivan Grozny, Noble Inn, Solar Impulse, Violet Dancer.
Horses by top-Group-1 sires: Ballyglasheen, Certification, Dawalan, Hawk High, Handiwork, Noble Inn, Orgilgo Bay, Raven’s Tower, Solar Impulse.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BETS: Those common to both groups are worth a pound: Noble Inn at 24.0 on BETDAQ this morning and Solar Impulse at 27.0
5.15 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper) Cue Card and Dunguib earned their stars in this. Irish-breds have won 17 out of 21, with 16 of them trained in Ireland.
But six of the last eight winners have started 40-1, 33-1, 25-1, 16-1, 14-1 and 12-1 and you are looking for one with only two or three previous starts, never out of the first two.
So Black Hercules, Izzini, Kilultagh Vic, Modus, Shaneshill and Value At Risk could contain the winner.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BETS: I could spend all day trying to choose between the Mullins’ horses but, at a price, bred to stay all day, Value At Risk (15.0) should give us a fun run, since they are likely to make a lot of use of him.
DAQMAN’S BETS (BET each to win 30 points):
BET 7.5pts win RED SHERLOCK, 2pts win and place LIEUTENANT COLONEL and 5.75pts win (stakes saver) FAUGHEEN.
BET: 4pts win SMAD PLACE, 3.5pts win CARLINGFORD LOUGH, 2.2pts win and place SAM WINNER and, already ante-post 1.75pts win GEVREY CHAMBERTIN at 18.0 (2.05 Cheltenham)
BET 2pts win VENDOR and 1.5pts win MEISTER ECKHART (2.40 Cheltenham)
BET 6pts win (nap) CAPTAIN CONAN (3.20 Cheltenham)
BET (already ante-post) 4.5pts win BALTHAZAR KING plus 2.5pts win and place ANY CURRENCY (4.00 Cheltenham)
BET 1.3pts win and place NOBLE INN and 1pt win and place SOLAR IMPULSE (4.40 Cheltenham)
BET 2pts win and place VALUE AT RISK (5.15 Cheltenham)
DOUBLE-YOUR-MONEY DAQ DOUBLES: 2 x 1pt win doubles CAPTAIN CONAN (3.20 Cheltenham) with BALTHAZAR KING and ANY CURRENCY (4.,00 Cheltenham)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Le Bec (2.05 Cheltenham)
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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: THE PAIN AND THE PLEASURE AT HALF WAY
PAINFUL to see my Tuesday bet, The New One, favourite for next year’s Champion Hurdle in some quarters when I had to leave my hard-earned behind in this year’s race because he got knocked sideways. And painful on the wallet not to get a run from Captain Conan in the Champion Stakes yesterday. Two title bouts, two technical knockouts! Third time lucky in tomorrow’s Gold Cup?
PAINFUL but only myself to blame for nominating Robbie McNamara as top amateur rider and then ignoring his mount, Silver Concorde, winner of the Champion Bumper at 16-1. Winners of that race are always horses to follow.
PLEASURE to see my first win-40 bet of the year, Vautour, tank in like a champion, my first 30-point banker take her sixth mares’ crown and my first two lays well and truly laid. I’ll tell you today why it’s always a layers meeting.
THE STORY SO FAR: Mullins’ form figures up to the Neptune: 1002412331. Nicholls’ form-figures in two days: 04000F0000U0402.
1.30 Cheltenham (JLT – Golden Miller – Novices’ Chase): While we rightly celebrate Quevega’s record-breaking sixth Mares’ Hurdle, the one she supposedly overtakes at the top of the Cheltenham charts, Golden Miller, won five Gold Cups and a Grand National. Platinum to her gold, I think.
This race in his honour produced Sir Des Champs in 2012 but is notable for three consecutive defeats by the highest-rated equine celebs in the race: Dynaste (161) was second last year, Peddlers Cross (160) was last to finish the year before, and the first JLT saw Wishfull Thinking (155) also stuffed.
What beat them? The younger generation. They make up half the field today and one of them may have the X-factor over the older market leaders like Felix Yonger and Oscar Whisky, who have both come late to jumping fences.
Sizing Gold’s conqueror, Foxrock, did nothing for the form on Tuesday; Taquin Du Seuil was prey to revenge by Oscar Whisky and Paul Nicholls’ Wonderful Charm is in front of the both of them on December form.
Class-3 novice Uxizandre has to step up, while dark-horse Vukovar ‘could be anything’ though, as a Frenchman, is likely to need softer ground.
I find it hard to back a Nicholls’ horse at this time, on his record so far at the meeting including that shocker of a run from Supreme Novices joint-favourite, Irving.
Quite the opposite applies to Willie Mullins. And, of all the terrific animals he has brought to Cheltenham this week, there is one – Djakadam – that he has had little of his customary reserve about.
Try this for a sudden attack of equine hyperbole: ‘He is a really natural jumper who would have gained lengths at his fences if let stride on.. He has great scope.. Ruby couldn’t get a pull of him to pull him up!
‘He had a huge amount left in the tank. It’s very hard to get a horse that jumps and gallops like he does.’
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Is it possible that, after the sensational first-race-of-the-day feats of Vantour on Tuesday and Faugheen yesterday, Willie Mullins can do the hat-trick here? Yes twice over.
It’s highly likely to be with Felix Yonger but is it possible that this five-year-old Djakadam is, in fact, The Chosen One, among all that sparkling County Carlow collection?.
Novice-chasers who were top-line Grade-1 hurdlers do well in this type of event and Ruby Walsh stands by the ‘very professional’ Felix Yonger (Ruby’s words), Neptune second to Simonsig, and with goodish-ground form figures of 102111.
Of course, this applies to Oscar Whisky, too; Supreme Novices fourth, Champion Hurdle third and World Hurdle fifth in successive years.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Djakadam 1, Felix Yonger 2, Oscar Whisky 3
DAQMAN’S BETS: Potential (or anything containing that word ‘maybe’) is not a good way to bet unless you get a price: 10-1 will do nicely, thankyou BETDAQ layers.
So I can have 2.7 points at 12.0 DJAKADAM and 7.5 on FELIX YONGER (at 5.0) for my usual 30 target per bet (I don’t do dutching, only fixed-profit-yield individual bets so that my returns are transparent)
2.05 Cheltenham (Pertemps Final): Whisper it (he won from high in the Coral Cup handicap) but the top half dozen in this have very little chance on the stats: 35 horses rated 143 or more have all failed this century.
In that time, Jonjo O’Neill (how did I miss Holywell?) has trained the winner three times, and has snook Josies Orders into the foot of the handicap, accounting Maurice Linehan’s claim.
In fact, Holywell won this last year after running second in his qualifier, whereas ‘Josie’ won his and now has to buck the trend: only once in 19 finals has a qualifier winner scored on the big day.
And, though he may look low in the handicap, ‘Josie’ has shot up 22lb this year. That, in a nutshell, is why winners of the heats lose out in the final. Just look at the form figures of the last eight to take this prize:
Holywell 2222; Cape Tribulation P004; Buena Vista 0000; Buena Vista again 0000; Oscar Park 22F0; Kadoun 0000. The exceptions are the odd-man-out qualifier winner, Ballyfitz (2008), and the following year Kayf Aramis.
Broadway Buffalo has the look of a Pipe runaway; Crowning Jewel will stay till closing time; Utopie Des Bordes is better than the bare form; Mister Dillon will appreciate the ground; If In Doubt has a touch of class.
At the top of the handicap, Fingal Bay and If In Doubt were one-two in the Exeter qualifier after If In Doubt had run second in the Lanzarote. Jetson, third in last year’s final to Holywell, is 7lb higher.
The one among the top bunch who has those Pertemps winning form-figures (0033) is Trustan Times. Once upon a Trustan Times, he beat Holywell in a Grade 3, giving him 12lb.
Since then, he’s been placed in the Long Walk, the Rendlesham and the West Yorkshire, all Grade 1 or 2, and, dropped a few pounds. Could be a surprise package after the stable’s 33-1 winner yesterday.
On the Bridge will love the ground but has never been able to raise his game above class 3.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The two in the right ratings area who will appreciate the faster conditions are Mister Dillon who went well over CD on his first run back this season, and Crowning Jewel, a real stayer laid out for this by a shrewd yard. Both 26.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Crowning Jewel 1, Mister Dillon 2, If In Doubt 3
DAQMAN’S BETS: 4pts win IF IN DOUBT, 1.2pts win and place on each CROWNING JEWEL and MISTER DILLON.
2.40 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase) The last three winners have been rated 165, 168 and 166, with six of the last nine already successful over course and distance. That applies to Dynaste, (169), Menorah (169) and Al Ferof (165), who are all round about the ratings parameter.
The last six Ryanair winners had run in the King George. Those three did, though ‘run’ is hardly the word for Menorah, who jumped badly (after a knee op) and pulled up. Could bounce back but hard to bet he will do so and win.
Today’s ground and the drop back in trip favours Al Ferof, who likes this meeting – Champion Bumper runner-up, Supreme Novice winner and Arkle fourth – but the stable is having a stinker of a week.
Benefficient refused to be denied when he beat Dynaste in the Golden Miller a year ago today. Boston Bob prefers more cut in the ground but was winning the RSA when he fell at the last.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BET: These are all flawed, one way or another. Maybe the lucky lad is Davy Russell who steps in for the ride on BENEFFICIENT after the injury to Bryan Cooper: 5.2 this morning.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Benefficient 1, Al Ferof 2, Boston Bob 3
3.20 Cheltenham (Ladbrokes World Hurdle) The hot-pot rivals Annie Power – mare of the moment in spite of Quevega – and Big Buck’s, four times king of the World until absent in 2013, both have to defy some meaningful stats.
Big Buck’s would be only the second 11-year-old winner since 1972, and Annie Power the first to win with fewer than eight previous hurdles starts (she’s had six) since Rustle in 1989 and probably the first ever to be so lightly raced and without a run beyond 21 furlongs.
It’s another case of do you join the Mullins faithful at a short price? It’s certainly hard to keep faith with Camp Ditcheat this week, with their string of losers.
Millions of words will be written about this encounter but all tipsters should be made to put their money where their mouth is, or at least admit to making a partisan choice, when only a decision on value is really valid.
I mean, come off it you partisans, can you honestly back the 11-year-old Big Buck’s with his stable form and his coming to the end of his racing days a la Hurricane Fly?
A mare hasn’t won this in 21 years and can you honestly back a young lady called Annie just three races out of novice class and whose power we have seen only up to 21 furlongs on soft ground?
There are spectacles and betting opportunities. I have to tip in both. This is a spectacle (we hope). Only in hindsight will we be able to say: of course Big Buck’s was always going to outstay her; of course, Annie Power was too young; too smart; too powerful.. whichever, blah blah blah.
That’s why the layers win in the long run: punters follow horses not prices and get carried away by hype and the headlines. Answer: be a layer on BETDAQ!
There is no genuine betting opportunity in this today but, faced with one old man (Big Buck’s) and one pretentious girl (Annie Power), I’ll put my pound on an upset and watch the mugs throwing money at the layers.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BETS: Neptune winner AT FISHER’S CROSS (form figures at Cheltenham 1112; BETDAQ offers 11.5) has only just come right after losing his way for a time through back trouble and the stable struck with O’Faolains Boy yesterday.
Value? Well, I can get more for a place about Fisher’s than I could Annie Power for a win! Come on A.P., you and I have taken on the World before now and won!
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: At Fisher’s Cross 1, Big Buck’s 2, Annie Power 3.
4.00 Cheltenham (Byrne Group Plate) Irish stables have won the Plate only once since 1951 and recent winners have included 66-1, 50-1, 33-1, 18-1, 14-1 and 12-1 (twice)
This time the layers are not looking for partisans but for those prepared to take less than 23-1 (the true odds) in a 24-runner race. Well, as ‘true’ as the ability of the handicapper, whose job is to make them finish in a line.
And the punters only means of breaking the line is ‘hidden’ form of horse or stable, going dependency, ability to act on the course and aptitude at the trip.
Horses aged six to eight are 7-10 and ratings between 133 and 139 are 7-10, with David Pipe, Venetia Williams and Nicky Henderson claiming 7-9. Any help?
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BETS: I shall back THIRD INTENTION (14.5 on BETDAQ) win and place, as one in the frame 11 times in graded races, hard to win with but dropped 8lb since second to Dynaste and only a pound higher now than his second to Captain Conan, both races last Spring.
BALLYNAGOUR (17.0) has had this as his target since fluffing his lines as favourite last year, and I believe that CHRISTOPHER WREN (70.0) is better than the bare form
4.40 Cheltenham (Kim Muir) Another bad race for the Irish: 31 years since they won it. But I think they’ll break the hoodoo here. I can’t desert Robbie McNamara again.
His SPRING HEELED – 17.5 on BETDAQ this morning – and the Mullins’ horse BALNASLOW at 11.0 have both had half a dozen choices this week and both are much better on a faster surface.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all to win 30 points, except place bankers and Daq Doubles)
BET 7.5pts win FELIX YONGER and 2.7pts win DJAKADAM (1.30 Cheltenham)
BET 4pts win IF IN DOUBT, 1.2pts win and place on each CROWNING JEWEL and MISTER DILLON (2.05 Cheltenham)
BET 7.3pts win (nap) BENEFFICIENT (2.40 Cheltenham)
BET 3pts win and 7pts place banker AT FISHER’S CROSS (3.20 Cheltenham)
BET 3pts win BALNASLOW and 1.8pts win and place SPRING HEELED (4.40 Cheltenham)
BET: 2.2pts win and 7.8pts place banker THIRD INTENTION, 1.8pts win and place BALLYNAGOUR, and 0.5pts win and place CHRISTOPHER WREN (4.00 Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES DOUBLES: Felix Yonger and Djakadam (1.30 Cheltenham) with Benefficient (3.20 Cheltenham) and with Big Buck’s and Annie Power (3.20 Cheltenham)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Al Ferof (2.40 Cheltenham) and At Fishers Cross (3.20 Cheltenham)
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QUESTION: Why does Daqman count place bets and lays when Pricewise doesn’t do them?
DAQMAN: More fool him! I suggest he gets up to date and includes BETDAQ in his column, from tomorrow.
QUESTION: Why didn’t you count your break-even, the saver on Faugheen, when Pricewise lost in the race?
DAQMAN: I’m counting returns only when there’s a profit.
1.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle): Azamour, Daylami, Haafhd, Galileo, Jeremy and Kalanisi. Sorry to mention these summer stars to you jumps fanatics who wouldn’t be seen dead on a Flat track.
But – Guineas hero, Derby winners and Breeders Cup holder among them – these top Group horses are all sires of recent Triumph Hurdle winners.
Even more so in today’s conditions, this race is about a speed stampede that flattens ‘the sticks’ they call hurdles and franks the racing dictum: class will out!
I can’t have tail-swishing Abbyssial, a Beneficial, who will come into his own over fences, over further. And I won’t be with the likes of Broughton, Lindenhurst, Kentucky Hyden or Guitar Pete, whose sires have yet to produce anything of note.
Plinth, by the sire of Hurricane Fly, has had extensive schooling with Robbie Power as Aidan Oâ€Brien’s first Grade-1 hurdler since Istabraq, three times Cheltenham champion and four times Irish.
He has ground to make up on Guitar Pete and Tiger Roll, with Guitar Pete just in front of Lindenhurst and Broughton (on a line through Clarcam) but behind Royal Irish Hussar.
They’re all of a heap but, collaterally, give me a strong pointer to Rutherglen, the stayer of John Quinn’s pair. The Press is raving Broughton but, on a line through Thorpe, Rutherglen has 12lb in hand of him.
Rutherglen’s stablemate, Pearl Castle – also same stallion as Hurricane Fly, same trainer as the 2012 winner of this – was going to bypass Cheltenham for Aintree but is on the boil and has his ground.
Calipto won easily at Newbury on a soundish surface from Activial, who waits for Aintree. Paul Nicholls fancies the Triumph cavalry charge will suit his horse.
This is redemption day for Ditcheat, which must surely get something from Calipto, Lac Fontano and Silviniaco Conti but can you bet on it after their appalling week in the Cheltenham playing-field. No swings, no roundabouts so far!
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: If you back Rutherglen, you’ve got to back Pearl Castle. Plinth has a touch of class if his hurdling has been improved. Stable form suggests that Calipto might place without winning.
Royal Irish Hussar is the experienced horse but that sort is usually overtaken by lightly-raced improvers who’ve had a couple of wins.
DAQMAN’S BETS: John Quinn who won this with Countrywide Flame wants it again, and I could afford to back his pair in a 103% orange, with Pearl Castle 12.5 and Rutherglen 14.0.
I could have covered the stakes with a saver on Calipto, just in case Ditcheat wakes up but, if I have place bets on my selections, I need just one of them in the frame for comprehensive insurance. I’ve adjusted the place stakes accordingly.
2.05 Cheltenham (County Hurdle): Cheltenham experience abounds: Barizan, Alaivan, second, third and fourth in the Triumph; Cheltenian, Cinders And Ashes and Flaxen Flare, winners respectively of the Champion Bumper, Triumph Hurdle and Fred Winter; Montbazon fourth in the Supreme Novice.
A BHA ratings band of 131-139 traps every one of the last eight winners. Horses aged five and six are 8-10 and the Irish are 6-7, and I give you Eddie Harty’s Curragh trained Minella Foru, the only runner to fit all the trends.
Eddie’s had one brilliant horse, Captain Cee Bee, on which today’s pilot, Tony McCoy, won the Punchestown Ryanair. Both owned, of course, by J P McManus.
But Minella Foru was a good way behind Arctic Fire at Fairyhouse before Christmas. Arctric Fire, freshened up for this, and waited for the better ground, is Ruby Walsh’s pick of the Willie Mullins’ contingent.
Mullins won this with Thousand Stars in 2010, and Diakali, only around 7lb behind Jezki on Hattons Grace form, suggests that, if Arctic Fire is the main chance, he must be close to the top of the tree.
The seeming Mullins third string is Upazo, but he likes a sounder surface and is by Binocular’s sire, Enrique, a Group horse on the Flat whose get includes 10 winners of six-figure sums over jumps.
Another who will appreciate top of the ground is Cheltenian, who had a sound prep for this in the BF Hurdle on heavy, a race the stable used for its two previous winners of this.
Better off with Alaivan on that run. Long time no see, and eight now, but very few miles on the clock, and well backed during the week.
Despite 29 attempts, Nicky Henderson hasn’t won this since 1997, and resorts to a blanket attack with five more runners today; one of them is likely to be involved in the finish, maybe Makari.
Paul Nicholls relies on Lac Fontana, but a 12lb rise may stop him, and the stats say that he comes from the ‘wrong’ prep races. Has Alan King got Montbazon back to his Supreme Novice form of 2012? He has his ground if still good enough.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BETS: Cheltenian (9.6 on BETDAQ this morning) is my pick of the past Cheltenham form, and the money is down. Arctic Fire (8.2) has to be backed as Ruby’s choice but Upazo is massive at 48.0, as the ‘ignored’ of Willie Mullins’ trio.
2.40 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle): You need a Graded race winner on your side – Briar Hill, Captain Cutter, Deputy Dan, Kings Palace – with preferably a Cheltenham win on their CV. That points up Champion Bumper winner Briar Hill and Kings Palace, whose won on the New and the Old course.
A tough race for a novice, with all bar one winner in the decade having previously won over 2m 5f or more. Black mark, Briar Hill, though he’s bred to get 3m and Willie Mullins mentions him in the same breath as Vautour and Faugheen.
What I have not liked about him is that he’s hit a flat spot about three out (twice ‘niggled along’ at that stage, when asked to extend).
There are some strong sorts here in these sons of Flemensfirth, Robin des Champs, Oscar and Presenting but on today’s ground I’d prefer a Westerner, whose Western Warhorse landed Tuesday’s Arkle.
That gives me a new list of Captain Cutter, Champagne West and Deputy Dan. Captain Cutter has McCoy aboard for the final drive but needs him, as he’s been none too fluent in his prep races. And Deputy Dan didn’t beat Masters Hill at Warwick half as far as Kings Palace did at Cheltenham.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BETS: Kings Palace has it all: Cheltenham form, stamina (has won up to 3m), ground preference and from the David Pipe stable in form: 4.5 on BETDAQ this morning thanks to the Willie Mullins factor.
3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup: Bobs Worth’s Cheltenham record is an unblemished 11111 – including successively the Albert Bartlett, the RSA and the Gold Cup – and he’s been prepared solely with defence of his title in mind.
But on collateral form through First Lieutenant he has Last Instalment right on top of him, if not in front. Bob’s beaten Mouse Morris’s ‘nearly horse’ 1.5 lengths, 2.5 lengths, 8.25 lengths in three encounters. Last Instalment has beaten him nine lengths and six lengths in two.
Last Instalment met him in December 2011 and again on his comeback triumph in the Leopardstown Hennessy. Horses rarely return from injury and get back to the top but this one did, almost exactly where he left off, if the Lieutenant line is good and it certainly seems to be a path well trod by his adversary today, Bobs Worth.
We need to see resurgent stable form and some further improvement in the year-younger Silviniaco Conti, who seemed to be going well against Bobs Worth last year when he fell, but there has been no improvement.
Conti remained fairly static on 172-175 the whole of last year. Compare that with a 21lb rise in Bobs Worth’s rating between December 2012-December 2013.
Is Triolo D’Alene waiting in the wings on Bobs Worth, with Denman and Bobs Worth himself taking the Newbury Hennessy as he did on the way to their gold?
You could just as well argue that Bobs Worth’s Lexus produced Best Mate, War Of Attrition, Denman and Synchronised to win this big one and that the Leopardstown Hennessy won by Last instalment gives him the gold glint that came in advance of victories here today for Jodami and Imperial Call.
Or that Silviniaco Conti’s King George was won by subsequent champions of today in Long Run, Desert Orchid, Best Mate, Kicking King and Kauto Star.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BETS: The way to win in the long run is to get value and it is clear (not a guess but ‘clear’) on collateral form that Last Instalment should not be 9.2 on BETDAQ this morning to Bobs Worth’s 3.0.
It is also the case that we don’t want to get involved in another short-odds ‘hype hysteria’ Bobs Worth v Conti clash, like the Big Buck’s and Annie Power battle that turned out to be for runners-up spot!
For me, Triolo D’Alene is for another year, though I badly want him to get a place because I have 56.0 Rocky Creek for the Grand National.
Strictly, pound-for-a-length assessment of the Hennessy makes him the ‘moral’, as he gave Triolo 4lb and was beaten less than three lengths.
So I go Last Instalment win and place in a magnificent punter-friendly 100% orange, in which layers are paying out precisely what backers put in. Amazing value from BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S GOLD CUP 1-2-3: Last Instalment 1, Bobs Worth 2, Silviniaco Conti 3.
4.00 Cheltenham (The Foxhunter) I was always told to pick from the young horses which are in front of the old-timers in the market, the cut-off point today being Pearlysteps.
So On the Fringe, Harbour Court, Tammys Hill. Harbour Court needs to be fresh. Tammys Hill seems to have improved past On The Fringe so is ‘wrong’ at 9.2 on BETDAQ to his 5.3 this morning.
4.40 Cheltenham, (Martin Pipe Hurdle): David Pipe’s form figures for his dad’s race are 30000 but Vieux Lion Rouge (8.4 on BETDAQ) , six wins from seven starts, gives him a great chance, with the yard in top form.
5.15 Cheltenham (Grand Annual) The turnkey stat is that there has been no success from 11st or above in 14 seasons (and in 21 of the last 25 years), so I’ll take a punt on a good-ground lover who’s with a shrewd handicap stable and has form in a big field at Cheltenham.
Changing The Guard is 28.0 on BETDAQ, as I write, and an appropriate valediction for a meeting that has seen the old guard give way to the new in the championship races.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.6pts win and 3.4pts place PEARL CASTLE, and 2.3pts win and 2.7pts place RUTHERGLEN (1.30 Cheltenham)
BET 4pts win ARCTIC FIRE, 3.5pts win CHELTENIAN and 0.6pts win and place UPAZO (2.05 Cheltenham)
BET 8.5pts win KINGS PALACE and 5pts win (stakes saver) BRIAR HILL (2.40 Cheltenham)
BET 3.6pts win and 6.4pts place (place nap) LAST INSTALMENT (3.20 Cheltenham)
BET 3.6pts win and place TAMMYS HILL (4.00 Cheltenham)
BET 4pts win and place VIEUX LION ROUGE (4.40 Cheltenham)
BET 1.1pt win and place CHANGING THE GUARD (5.15 Cheltenham)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Briar Hill (2.40 Cheltenham) and Silviniaco Conti (3.20 Cheltenham)
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DAQMAN BEST BET IS 9.6 DOYNOSAUR FROM STABLE IN FORM
2.20 Kempton Park (Betdaq – The Sports Betting Exchange – Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase) Every winner of this had won or been placed last time out which hands the prize to Arkaim or Noche Du Reyes, but it may not be that simple, with five in the field separated by only three points on BHA ratings.
Easily Pleased has been in the frame seven times out of eight, still standing, Able Deputy five out of six, and Kitegen used to have a sequence of seven including three times successful.
Trainer in hot form is Karl Burke (11323 still standing) and Alan King was among the prizemoney at Cheltenham which puts Doynosaur and Tante Sissi bang in the picture, too.
Tante Sissi won the mares’ final at Newbury in her hurdling days and returned to the smaller obstacles after trying to walk through a couple of the fences on her chasing debut.
That contrasts with Doynosaur’s winning form at Newcastle, Arkaim’s three chase wins, the last one by 27 lengths at Leicester, and Easily Pleased’s smooth success at Newton Abbot.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Arkaim is a keen sort who may try to make every post a winning one but he needs the ground to stay soft. Able Deputy idles in front and it’s interesting to see Sam Twiston-Davies take over. Will try to wait on the leader until the run-in. Kitegen has been one paced over further and I’m not sure the drop back in trip will help.
It’s two years since we saw anything from Tante Sissi and the drop to this level hasn’t helped the last twice, hurdles or fences, though sure to have gone back to the schooling arena.
Easily Pleased is consistent, and Noche De Reyes consistently mediocre, so I give a chance to Doynosaur to bounce back at 9.6 on BETDAQ this morning in a 101% list of offers in the orange.
Doynosaur was impressive on her return to chasing before Christmas, winging her fences and prompting her rider to say there are ‘some big days ahead’.
She’s a big girl, and I’m just a little worried about the tight track, but the stable is white hot and she looked a fast jumper on good ground at Newcastle.
2.55 Kempton Park (Betdaq Silver Plate) This race would look good on the Aintree Festival programme, with 20 winners of 61 races set for the most part within a ratings parameter of only 8lb. And it could be just as fast, with the ground drying out.
The jubilant Cheltenham stables of Alan King, Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and – most prominently – Jonjo O’Neill and David Pipe are all represented.
So, too, the not so lucky at the festival: Oliver Sherwood, whose Deputy Dan was caught on the run-in yesterday, and Nigel Twiston-Davies, who saw The New One knocked sideways in the Champion Hurdle.
A 210,000 guineas buy into the Pipe yard, Legacy Gold has quickly repaid the guineas oddments but this is the mare’s first real chance to take home some decent money, though her 133 mark looks harsh after her wins over 114 and then 103 rateds on her last two starts.
However, Tom Scudamore has chosen Legacy Gold over Prideofthecastle, though that one looks good on a line through Art Professor, who was the ‘moral’ over Graded performer Kayf Aramis at Ascot after being slammed four lengths by the ‘Castle’ at Huntingdon.
Imperial Leader was 10 lengths off Fingal Bay in a Pertemps qualifier at Exeter but the winner won the final at Cheltenham. Similarly, Portway Flyer got within 12 lengths of Vaniteux at Doncaster in that one’s prep race before his third to Vantour in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on Tuesday.
The third horse that day at Doncaster had finished a million miles behind Brave Vic in a Grade 3 at Sandown before that and I see that Marcilhac was Plumpton runner-up to Brave Vic in January.
Special Catch, highly regarded by his in-form northern yard, ran well at the Aintree Festival last April and has been consistent in today’s class since.
Golden Hoof will do better as a chsser. Empire Levant should improve for better ground. And the going may be the key to this.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Marcilhac, who comes out with some class if his defeat of Brave Vic on heavy at Plumpton can be believed, will be much better suited to the improved ground, we’re told.
Imperial Leader also has that touch of class for this event, having tackled the likes of Fingal Bay and run up to Irish Saint this year.
The drying ground is a worry for a Flemensfirth but, when he beat Neptune second Ballyalton at Southwell as a four-year-old, the going was good to soft.
It’s a hard race to call but I reckon Cannon Fodder, second in two Listeds, is likely to set the pace with Bygones Sovereign and Lord Of Scotland.
Imperial Leader (10.0 on BETDAQ as I write) Portway Flyer (13.5) and Marcilhac (16.0) look the pick on form, with Marcilhac, noticeably jumping right at Plumpton and regarded by her trainer as better on a sounder surface, vastly overpriced and, though my bets today are to win 20 points, I’m raising my stake on that way to win 30.
3.30 Kempton Park (Betdaq Silver Bowl) More hot stuff from BETDAQ, both as sponsors and in the offers which added up to only 104% in the orange at the time of writing. Did you not notice SP Totals of 133% and 134% (twice) at Cheltenham yesterday!
The 104% means that you are in a punter-friendly betting zone and, as I did in the big hurdle just now, you can afford more than one bet at those prices.
But I don’t think so here. I’m expecting an improved performance from Lost Legend, Tony McCoy’s choice over Bar De Ligne, who represents the best form on show.
Bar de Ligne disposed of his field at Musselburgh, then comes out about the same horse as Ericht at the weights on their one-two on the same course when Ericht was prepping for Cheltenham (started joint favourite this week).
‘Shark’ Hanlon’s Nearest The Pin is over here for the better ground but has to give weight to all. The Cockney Mackem is a dodgy jumper. Notarfbad, The Romford Pele, Cloudy Bob and Elenika are all bridesmaids, with 16 out of 16 (last four races each) all in the frame without winning.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’d find it difficult to put you off any of these in a very open contest, with a very generous market from the BETDAQ layers. Lost Legend (11.0 as I write) is reported better than the bare figures suggest and is McCoy’s choice over a form horse.
DAQMAN SAT: GRAND NATIONAL DAY
DAQMAN GOES FOR A FIFTH MARATHON: Daqman, who beat Pricewise 12-1 at Cheltenham, is now leading the Racing Post man 37 returns to 11 since their value-betting duel began on November 23. He has landed four National winners out of five in the new year and goes for another one today:
WON 4-1 SUN CLOUD North Yorkshire National (January)
WON 14-1 FLYING AWARD Somerset National
WON 9-2 EMPERORS CHOICE West Wales National (February)
WON 9-2 FLYING AWARD Devon National
CHELTENHAM CHIEF MULLINS MAY BE OUTRUN BY THE SUN
3.50 Uttoxeter (Midlands Grand National): Willie Mullins, leader of the Irish braves who successfully raided Cheltenham yet again this week, has Are Ye Right Chief spot on – stats, weight and form – for another big prize this afternoon.
But he has tried and failed in this several times and the sun does not shine for this horse, third in the Punchestown Grand National Trial, and he was easy to back this morning at 11.0 on BETDAQ. He needs it to stay like a bog, on all known form, and I’m going, appropriately, for Sun Cloud.
David Pipe has skillfully and unerringly taken this prize three years running with horses rated 126, 126 and 128, and his runners today, Junior and Goulanes, might look like handicap planning errors off 142 and 138. But they’re lucky to get in!
Because the Charlie Hall and Denman Chase winner Harry Topper, rated 161, stays in off 11st 12lb, Junior carries 10st 7lb and Goulanes 10st 3lb, with half the field pushed out of the handicap. Harry’s done an Arkle!
Whether he can do even half an Arkle in the race itself is largely down to the weather. He, too, is ground dependent, and swerved the sounder surface at Cheltenham for forecast-soft Uttoxeter. But that forecast is blowing in the wind.
Goulanes also needs it to stay soft. As for Junior, he’s a law unto himself: even on a going day, he hasn’t won a decent race since the Kim Muir at Cheltenham three years ago yesterday.
Emperors Choice, second in the Haydock Grand National trial, needs a bog. Like Fill The Power, fifth last year, he is sharply up in the weights.
Bradley, fancied so often for staying chases, came back to form in the Grand Military Gold Cup, but that was an amateur-riders’ event and I wouldn’t fancy him in a ‘real’ race here.
Alfie Spinner fifth in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham 2013, is also a good stayer but equally difficult to win with and, like Red Rocco, 8lb out of the handicap. Loch Ba and Firebird Flyer are more of the same but at least they’re claiming back most of their long-handicap disadvantage. West End Rocker hasn’t won over park fences for three years.
Wyck Hill has a rare attribute for a stayer: when he’s in winning form he stays in winning form. After scoring at Chepstow in October, 2011, he won again 15 days later, 9lb higher. After winning at Wetherby in November 2012, he scored a month later 13lb higher.
And you have to grant him this: most of his defeats since have been because he’s been overfaced, attempting four Grade-3 races, three of them just before his Eider Chase win three weeks ago.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The three-years-younger Sun Cloud (9.4 on BETDAQ this morning) was making progress on Wyck Hill (11.0) when he fell in the Eider, and is 8lb better off.
The pair may outgun Willie Mullins’ stayer Are Ya Right Chief, who is very one-paced and has to be cajoled along. The ground may have gone against him.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20 points) 2.3pts win (nap) DOYNOSAUR (2.20 Kempton)
BET (to win 20) 2.2pts win IMPERIAL LEADER and 1.6pts win PORTWAY FLYER but (to win 30) 2pts win and place MARCILHAC (2.55 Kempton)
BET 2pts win (to win 20) LOST LEGEND (3.30 Kempton)
BET (to win 20) 2.3pts win SUN CLOUD and 2pts win WYCK HILL (3.50 Uttoxeter)
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WINNERS PATTERN SUGGESTS IT’S A WAIT-AND-SEE WINTER DERBY
Flat punters are straining in the slips. But there are graphic reasons to avoid Saturday’s Winter Derby market until there’s a better knowledge of what will run. After the wet winter, few horses will be ready for the fray.
Half a dozen well fancied in the list of 37 probables have been out of action between 122 and 208 days and some others in the front rank of the betting – Captain Cat, Graphic, Solar Deity and Windhoek – simply don’t have the class.
The field had been running at 12, 13 (three times) and 14 in the last six years until it slumped to nine starters last season, and a combination of factors could see it in single figures again, not least that handicappers have less and less chance of winning it.
Such as Chookie Royale and Captain Cat, both with decent AW form this winter, now fall between two race-planning stools. If they run in the Lincoln – only a class 2 handicap – on March 29, they will have to carry 9st 7lb and 8st 13lb respectively.
If they run in the Group-3 Winter Derby, they must meet Pattern-winning horses at level weights, yes successful Group and Listed animals who give these handicappers little or no chance in the race.
The facts laid out in the form of the last six Winter Derby winners suggest that you must wait and see which of the quality horses run. The last six were:
Farraaj (had won Listed, placed Groups 1 and 3), Premio Loco (winner and second Group 2), Nideeb (won two Listeds), Tranquil Tiger (won six Listeds), Scintillo (won one Listed in UK and one Group 1 in Italy), Hattan (won one Listed in UK, second in three Group 1s and one Group 3).
Farraaj’s Winter Derby win last year came at the expense of Robin Hoods Bay (second), with Tinshu fourth and the 2012 winner, Premio Loco, fifth. The quartet are back for more, so, too, 2012 third, Circumvent. Otherwise look out specifically for:
Chil The Kite (won Listed, second and third Group 2 and third Group 3); Gatewood (winner and two thirds Group 3, second Group 2); Grandeur (second Grade 1, won Grade 2 and second Group 2, third Group 3, won Listed twice).
Highland Knight (first and second Group 2, first, second and third Group 3, won Listed), Mull of Killough (Group 2 second, Group 3 winner twice, one Listed), Parish Hall (Group 1 winner, Group 2 second; Group 3 winner, second and two thirds; one Listed).
BETDAQ offers in the orange will be in the range of two or three points either side of 106% whereas, even for last year’s nine-runner result, the bookies totted up 116% Total SP. With 13 runners in 2012, they bet 126% at the ‘off’.
A DELIGHT TO BET AT LIMERICK: BANKER ON THE CARDS
It’s a battle of the babes at Limerick. If you shed a few tears at Cheltenham, prepare for yet more soulful memories of jumping’s great arena as Byerley Babe and Baby Shine battle for the novices’ Grade-2 mares’ chase, named after the fabulous Dawn Run (3.40), winner of both the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup.
Dawn Run was the tear-jerker of them all at the festival as she added chasing’s top accolade to her hurdles crown, emotion on a par with Red Rum’s third National. Strong men wept, as Alice Treedown would say.
It’s England v Ireland all over again: Byerley Babe, who pipped Une Artiste a head at Thurles before that one ran eighth to Don Poli in the Martin Pipe, versus Baby Shine, who had a long-range rear view of RSA winner O’Faolain’s Boy in the Reynoldstown.
Collateral form points to Byerley Babe, since Baby Shine was beaten two-and-a-half lengths by Une Artiste at Huntingdon in December, but today’s weights swing the pendulum back in favour of Lucy Wadham’s raider, Baby Shine.
All seems to depend on their aptitude on the ground and the form of the yard: Robert Tyner (Byerley Babe) is currently four from eight, whereas Lucy Wadham is missing strike with seven in the frame without winning out of 10 still standing in the last fortnight.
Sean O’Brien will disagree that it’s a two-horse race, since his Caoimhe’s Delight was less than two lengths behind Byerley babe and Une Artiste at Thurles, finishing her race as though today’s two furlongs would be ideal.
Liz’s D’Estruval and Backinthere were both behind her when she was then the ‘moral’, giving 10lb, but beaten little more than a length by Lisrose at Thurles, stepped up to 3m last month.
Caoimie’s Delight seems to have all the form angles yet is 6.0 on BETDAQ this morning, as I write. Maybe her bridesmaid form figures are putting punters off but her price is the value for her first time at the trip.
Urticaire (2.40) beat Katie T at Navan yet is now better off at the weights, and punters gets a strong word of encouragement from Willie Mullins
Robert Tyner should gain compensation if Byerley Babe is beaten from the stable’s knocking bet, Knock Beauty (5.05 Navan).
And I will try some recouping, too. Wrong Turn (4.35) clearly didn’t give his running at Cheltenham when I tipped him, and is 11lb lower here: the 7.6 on BETDAQ looks tasty.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) URTICAIRE (2.40 Limerick)
BET 4pts win CAOIMHE’S DELIGHT (3.40 Limerick)
BET 3pts win WRONG TURN (4.35 Navan)
BET 10pts win KNOCK BEAUTY (5.05 Navan)
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WHAT KATIE DID WAS A LESSON AND WE’LL GET OUR MONEY BACK
You must never stop learning. That’s what all the best professional backers used to tell me about the racing game when I was a lad. And two things I should remember bear repeating here.
First of all, never listen to anyone else, not even a trainer or jockey. Only believe what you see with your own eyes. Mea culpa, I found Willie Mullins’ confidence in Urticaire infectious and I blew maximum stakes on her at Navan yesterday.
But, second of all, as the man said, I was always told to learn from my mistakes and try to turn bitter defeat into the blessing of profit.
The confidence in Urticaire and the way she was beaten by Katie T suggest that Katie is on the upgrade, one to follow, and will get us our money back, and more, maybe even at the Punchestown Festival.
Urticaire had beaten Katie T at Navan in December and was 3lb better off yesterday but Katie surged through smoothly and took the lead off Urticaire on the run-in. Improvement or what!
Whether Ruby Walsh would have made the difference – or Davy Russell, or Bryan Cooper, who’ve both ridden Urticaire before – we shall never know but, looking at the race several times, I don’t think so.
Two other horses to follow in my notebook – apart from obvious ones from Cheltenham – are Gabriel’s Lad and Fashion Line on the Flat, both intended to move up into the Pattern.
Gabriel’s Lad, placed in a European Champion Two-Year-Old handicap last Spring, is reckoned a Group performer by trainer Dennis Coakley and looked in need of his first run back at Wolverhampton nine days ago.
On the same day, at the same meeting, Fashion Line was fourth in the Ladbrokes Lincoln Trial, making her run on the wide outside.
I tipped her for the race, so I am not after-timing in any way when I agree with the comments in the on-line Racing Post form:
‘Had only four starts coming into this and her inexperience seemed to be telling in the last furlong.
‘She was running on at the end and connections will be trying to pick up some black type with this daughter of Cape Cross.’
If she’s targeting Listed level plus, and is rated only 88, Fashion Line ought to be able to pick up a decent handicap as the next step in her education.
I’M TIPPING TONER TO OURUN SEABASS IN DOWN ROYAL NATIONAL TRIAL
So near and yet so far. This column, which has 28.0 and 56.0 on BETDAQ Rocky Creek for the Grand National this April, had 60.0 Ted Walsh’s Seabass for Aintree two years ago.
Seabass ran a terrific race to finish third. He started 8-1 favourite and there was plenty of time in the run-up to the National to trade all sorts of ways to help make the race a winning one, or at least a no-lose contest.
As well as laying some off, I decided to spend some of the ‘overs’ on Sunnyhill Boy at 20.0. He finished second at 16-1. Somebody up there didn’t love me that day!
Seabass (3.15) trials for Aintree again at Down Royal this afternoon, after being the ‘moral’ at Fairyhouse in January, beaten little more than a length giving weight to the winner.
Those successful in today’s race in the last eight years, Treacle, Killyglen, Dun Doire and Jack High all impacted on the National market but, in the race itself at Liverpool, finished (or rather didn’t finish) UPUU. Oops!
This morning, BETDAQ layers would give you 22.0 Rocky Creek, 60.0 Seabass, 178.0 Raz De Maree and 280.0 Bog Warrior. So now I’m counting the ‘overs’ from Rocky Creek.
Seabass ran off 149 when he was third, was 13th from 5lb higher last year and is dropped a pound from that for his third attempt in April. Can’t be ruled out if he goes well this afternoon but I’m not tempted to another 60.0.
Raz De Maree, blinkered first time today, is one of the Aintree lightweights, 13lb lower, but has current form figures of P0P and will need to excel himself this afternoon.
Bog Warrior’s reappearance run in the Red Mills told us nothing much of his well-being after injury. The Drinmore Chase and Galmoy Hurdle winner needs to bounce back but is strongly fancied to do so.
Toner D’Oudairies, who’s been in the first two for nine races in a row still standing, is having his first run over a marathon trip but won’t go to Aintree whatever happens today; he’s only seven.
Toner D’Oudairies is trained by Gordon Elliott, who won the 2007 National with Silver Birch at 33-1. That was one that didn’t get away: I was on at 40-1.
Elliott implied in his pre-race comments to the Racing Post that Aintree will be the target for Toner another year, in which case this looks a fine qualifier to put on his CV.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) CARPINCHO (2.35 Southwell)
BET 8pts win TONER D’OUDAIRIES (3.15 Down Royal)
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Quality or quantity ?
Actually the answer is a bit of both.
QUALITY
We are seeing the quality on the all-weather at the moment with the excellent innovation of a Championship series with megabucks to be won on finals day on Good Friday, and also, most recently, the Silver Cups Day at Kempton on Saturday, sponsored by BETDAQ, for horses eliminated from handicap races at The Cheltenham Festival.
Both are great steps forward for the sport, as indeed has been the introduction of sectional timing.
All three initiatives should be applauded – punters (and bookmakers for that matter) like good, competitive racing and the all-weather now has a sense of direction – I try hard to avoid the dreaded word ‘narrative’ but can’t think of anything better.
QUANTITY
We have plenty of all-weather meetings, but all is not well at Wolverhampton, in particular, with the racing surface coming under heavy critisim and trainers and owners giving it a wide berth.
The closing two races on Saturday’s card – both handicaps – attracted just three runners in both of them, which is hardly conducive to betting turnover, which let’s face it is their primary purpose being staged at 8.40 and 9.10 on a Saturday evening.
We need Wolverhampton to be working again – and it looks as though a total overhaul of the surface is needed.
It’s not even Polytrack anymore – and that’s from the guys that originally installed it – the Martin Collins Group.
They are distancing themeselves from the surface as they claim their have been so many subsequent modifications.
Malcolm Wallace, chairman said: “Wolverhampton isn’t Polytrack any more, when we installed it back in 2004, it was a Polytrack and if that had gone wrong we would have put our hands up.”
“But since then a significant amount of additional material, which is not Polytrack at all, has been provided by alternative suppliers and the composition of the surface has changed significantly since it was installed.
James Given is one of several trainers to have noticed a change. He said: “It doesn’t ride like Polytrack and the kickback is not like Polytrack.”
All this makes me disappointed that Great Leighs are still not racing. For all the problems at the track with finances, stands etc one thing that was universally praised was the running surface. What was it? Oh yes, I remember now…… it’s called Polytrack.
TODAY’S RACING
We’re not exactly spoilt for runners at Southwell either today.
In the Ladbrokes Mobile Median Auction Maiden Stakes at 2.50 none of the runners have any course form, an important factor on the Fibresand and two of the runners already look thoroughly exposed – Flying Author and Soul Of Motion.
The answer may be Moonlit Sky who shaped with some promise on debut at Lingfield when 6th of 8 to the odds on Zamra
The opening seller at Exeter wouldn’t be my normal calling point but on what looks a very average days racing Scribe might well be the best bet. He was beaten a long way into second behind Lamps at Stratford last time out but unlike the majority of the field here is at least capable of further improvement.
Just the two bets then today – as well as a BETDAQ MULTIPLES double on the pair.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 10pts win (nap) SCRIBE (2.00 Exeter)
BET 8pts win MOONLIT SKY (2.50 Southwell)
BET 3pts WIN DOUBLE the pair on BETDAQ MULTIPLES
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ANOTHER GOLDEN RULE FOR THE FLAT: KEEP YOUR DAQ UP AND FOLLOW THE MARKET!
Early position: The BETDAQ market settles down to around 106% early doors – or early mouse, as I call it – and, since the action has hardly begun, you can take an early position on something at good offers.
This is particularly true on Saturdays and big-race days with a healthy market, yet one that will be strongly influenced later on by TV hype, ‘telephone tipsters’ and the morning papers.
Early positions ante-post (days, even weeks ahead of a race) are difficult these days when stables with very large strings are dominant– Mullins for Cheltenham, Hannon and O’Brien for the Classics, for example – and have quality in depth to choose from. What will they run?
Example: I suggested Annie Power for the Mares’ Hurdle. It was her rightful race at her age but the same stable had Quevega defending her title. Only if Quevega was over the hill would Annie Power run. She wasn’t. She didn’t.
With hindsight, Annie may have done better in the Champion Hurdle. I couldn’t back her for the World Hurdle, as her stamina wasn’t guaranteed, had not been tested in a race.
It’s that phrase ‘in a race’ that is vital to your successful punting. ‘Morning glories’ (they do everything right at home) and horses with ‘potential’ are all very well IF you get a price.
By the way, don’t be afraid of trainers and jockeys, if their views contradict you or insist you take a certain direction. By all means check out their quotes to iron out any errors on your part (‘wrong ground for him today’) and reduce your stake.
But, remember, it’s your opinion, and your long-term return from investment, that should be uppermost in your mind. The trainer’s real opinions and his own long-term aims are not for your ears. It’s up to you to read between the lines.
As for jockeys, current and ‘ex’, give them a wide berth. I’ve only known one who invariably tipped winners (Gary Stevens). In fact, he gave English readers a hatful one year for the Breeders’ Cup. Typical of the Press, the newspaper concerned never hired him again!
The market swing: So you’ve got your early position, right. You are into a market that totaled only around 106%. It’s midday now and something from the front of the betting has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft.
He was taking out 40%. Now he’s at odds which translate to only 10%. So add it all up, you guys: spend more and win for sure!
It’s simple maths. The market was value. You got on something at value. Now one at the front of the market has released others in the race at value.
Yes, but wait a minute you say: what about this steamer that’s come from out of the pack to be new favourite, or nearly so?
Well, if that was the horse you took an early position about, then good for you. If it wasn’t, you now have a decision to make: do you want to be on the steamer or not?
My view is that it depends on the race. If it’s a handicap, I would take the view that he’s opened the market up for me and, as a bet in himself, is only a covering stakes saver (because his value odds have gone).
If it’s a big-field maiden, well maybe ‘money talks.’ But remember my warning that it might be the same ‘tipsters’ hype’ or a morning glory, working the house down at home but still to do it on the track.
I would be less inclined this time to say that the steamer had opened the market for me, though don’t forget you can back Place Only on BETDAQ.
If you see a horse at odds on, early mouse or when the pre-race play begins, he will push out the offers on many of the other horses. A place-only bet on one of them could reap more than a win bet on the hot favourite.
Remember, the Placer has three chances (in races of eight or more runners), whereas the hot Win horse has only one.
Final point of trade: It’s race time and, oh boy, things have dramatically changed. The favourite is playing up in the stalls. Lay, man, lay. Don’t hestitate: you don’t have time.
But, heh, what’s this: your horse is still 8.0? You know the one you were on this morning! Such are the liabilities at the front of the market, that the unruly ‘thinker’ has drifted only from 4-6 to 4-5. You are not only happy to lay, you are happy to increase your stake on your original bet because his price is suddenly much better value.
On the other hand, it may be that your early-mouse position is the one that’s changed. You got 10.0 but he’s the steamer! Crash: he’s in to 3.2. He’s the buzz. And he’s the business, twice over.
You can now trade out on your morning bet with a lay, either to cover your stake or give you a win-win situation. If he wins, you win; if he loses, you win. It’s the race not the horse that matters.
Remember that one at Chepstow last week? “The 7-4 morning favourite Churchtown Love went odds on. That had all the makings of a lay in the circumstances of her being claimed off, as though connections were worried they couldn’t give the 5lb penalty away to 15 others who were in receipt of 7lb. A layer had those 15 running for him.
My choice at 4.0, Makadamia was far too easy to back at 6.0, even in the face of the strong support for Churchtown Love to 11-8 on. All this seemed to flag ‘turn-up expected’.
Churchtown Love threw her jockey at the start and they were called back to the tapes, with Churchtown Love easing only slightly when she had become a definite lay, yet still around 4-5.
Meanwhile, Makadamia came in only half a point, as if to say ‘the favourite may be rubbish but you’ll get nowhere backing me either!’
But Ginger Fizz had been backed just before the tapes went up and the late money was now well visible at the time of the recall. Nothing else fancied; so take some Fizz and fast!
The starter lets them go again and a reluctant Churchtown Love barges her neighbour as the tapes go up. Lay her to win, lay her a place, and lay her once again until the cows come home (she’s one of them).â€
TODAY’S BETDAQ RACING AT KEMPTON: STAR CAN LAND THE NAP
Kempton proved a happy hunting ground for me last night, even though my first two winners were backed off the boards.
The NAP – ABLE DASH – was 2.4 on BETDAQ at the time of publishing but sent off the 8/11 favourite. He won well as did PUZZLE TIME WON 11/8 in the 6.30.
In the 8.00 I tried a BETDAQ ‘special’ trading technique on a horse I was convinced would either win or run badly.
Punters expected SPIN ARTIST to win as he was sent off the 11/4 favourite but he trailed in last of the seven runners so stakes were saved with a cheap place lay.
This is what I said yesterday:
The Mark Johnston trained Spin Artist looks a classic win, with place lay insurance proposition. He’s a horse that either runs very well or very badly and that gives us an angle in on BETDAQ.
There are another four BETDAQ races tonight:
6:05 Betdaq – The Sports Betting Exchange Maiden Stakes (3yo+, Class 5, 1m 3f, 6 runners)
The odds tell you how uncompetitive this is likely to be. Liberty Red is trading at 1.21 on BETDAQ but I can’t back or lay him. He’s 1.21 because of the poor standard of opposition. Ed Dunlop’s runner is reappearing after a 171 day break and trying the all-weather for the first time which are the angles you will look to if considering laying. He’s rated 76 – and if you took him out of the race I am still not convinced ANY of the remainder are capable of winning 🙁 Straightforward for the favourite but a race to watch for me.
6:35 Betdaq Free 25 Bet No Lose Handicap (4yo+, Class 5, 1m 3f, 5 runners)
We’re down to a field of five after the defection of Final Delivery who looked the likely winner. My focus now switches to Midnight Chorister who ran a solid race over 1m 4f in a Lingfield maiden last time out and although a maiden after six starts looks to have been kindly treated on his handicap debut.
7:35 Betdaq 500 In Free Bets Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) (BOBIS Race) (3yo, Class 4, 1m, 7 runners)
This class 4 handicap looks the race of the night and the seven strong field includes three unbeaten runners who completely dominate the BETDAQ market. Tigers In Red won on debut at Southwell but tries Polytrack for the first time tonight. Tree Of Grace won readily on debut at Lingfield last October and his having his first race since but preference has to be for Passing Star who quickened away nicely to win a course and distance handicap last time out.
8:05 Betdaq No Premium Charge Fillies’ Handicap (4yo+, Class 5, 7f, 7 runners)
I thought the angle here was a place lay on the top weight Ishiamber (around 2.9 on the place market, two places). She was readily brushed aside here last time and the handicapper certainly seems to have been over cautious with her current mark.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win MIDNIGHT CHORISTER (6.35 Kempton)
BET 8pts win (nap) PASSING STAR (7.35 Kempton)
PLACE LAY for 8pts ISHIAMBER (8.05 Kempton)
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IT’S THE RIGHT TIME FOR SUPER-FIT LUCKY SEVEN IN THE NATIONAL
1 Betdaq 10.0 TEAFORTHREE 14 chases, ran March 14
2 Betdaq 16.0 Monbeg Dude 11 chases, ran March 1
3 Betdaq 23.0 Pineau De Re 14 chases, ran March 13
4 Betdaq 24.0 Burton Port 14 chases, ran March 1
5 Betdaq 24.0 Triolo d’Alene 13 chases, ran March 14
6 Betdaq 30.0 Big Shu 11 chases, ran March 12
7 Betdaq 88.0 Raz De Maree 10 chases, ran March 18
CLUES FROM THE STATS
FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS AT AINTREE
LIVERPOOL TOMORROW
2.30 Aintree Bowl Last year’s 1-2-3, First Lieutenant, Menorah and Silviniaco Conti make up 50% of the field in a race for which the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Ryanair are the best guides.
Dynaste won this year’s Ryanair, and Silviniaco Conti was fourth in the Gold Cup. Dynaste is the official top rating for the race.
3.05 Aintree Hurdle Champion Hurdle second and fourth and World Hurdle fifth have gone on to win this in the last four seasons.
The New One’s connections were looking for revenge here after an unlucky Champion third (Our Conor tragically fell in front of him) but only the sixth and eighth, Ptit Zig and Grumeti, may take him on again.
3.05 Fox Hunters’ Chase Not to be confused with the Foxhunter Challenge Cup at Cheltenham, not least because it throws up different results.
Cloudy Lane (Foxhunter sixth) won this in 2012, Baby Run (the 2011 winner) had unseated rider at Cheltenham, Trust Fund (2009) was only tenth, Christy Beamish (2008) had fallen. Those are the only connections between winners of the two races in the decade.
4.50 Manifesto Novices’ Chase All five winners of this had finished in the first five in the old Jewson or in the Arkle at Cheltenham.
Runners from among Attaglance, Ballycasey, Dodging Bullets, Double Ross, Felix Yonger, Trifolium, Uxizandre and Western Warhorse – all in the frame at Cheltenham last month – would make this the race of the day.
LIVERPOOL FRIDAY
2.30 Mildmay Novices’ Chase Don’t miss this or you might not see the next Big Buck’s, Burton Port, Silvinicao Conti or Dynaste, who have all won it since 2008.
It may be a case of look no further than O’Faolains Boy, if he bids to repeat his RSA victory at Cheltenham, though Alan King, who trained the runner-up that day, may switch to another festival second, Uxizandre.
3.05 Melling Chase The roll of honour for this in the decade has included Moscow Flyer, Monet’s Garden, Voy Por Ustedes, Albertas Run, Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre.
The last two winners were doubling up on their Cheltenham Champion Chase triumphs but this year’s is a modest renewal with Wishfull Thinking (2nd in the Queen Mother in 2012, fifth this year) top rated. I’ll be looking for something to beat him.
3.40 Topham Chase If this year’s National still confuses you, try spotting the winner from past results of this, run over the big fences. Triolo d’Alene won it last year but was getting a stone from the threeparts-of-a-length runner-up, Walkon. Any good?
4.15 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle Last year’s winner of this was following up from the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, but I’m looking for the family connection this time.
Apache Jack who was third in last month’s Albert Bartlett, is a full brother to Black Jack Ketchum, who won this Sefton Hurdle in 2006.
TODAY’S RACING: It’s a ‘pick and mix’ with a tip from each of the meetings today.
LINGFIELD 2.25
Gaelic Silver looks the bet of the day in the Ladbrokes Claiming Stakes at 2.25. He is officially rated the best horse in the race and the drop in grade should prove pivotal. He ran well in a better class race over course and distance last time out and the return to claiming company can bring about another win for trainer Gary Moore.
WINCANTON 2.45
There are a quite a few last time out winners here including Breaking Bits who made all to win at Fontwell last time out beating Golanova by two lengths with 22 lengths back to the third. This is tougher but he can go close. Ladies Dancing is the steamer after a spell on the flat.
SOUTHWELL 4.05
Two of the bigger players, Eva Clare and Razin’ Hell, are non runners which can leave the coast clear (excuse the pun!) for Scarborough to follow up her easy six length success last week. She picks up a 6lb penalty but can overcome that and the drop back to five furlongs./
KEMPTON 6.25
When is a race not a race? When it’s the 5.55 at Kempton. A shocking entry of just two runners and the favourite trading at 1.03 on BETDAQ. Incredible that a race worth £2,500 to the winner can be so neglected. In the 6.25 Ishiamber should be able to defy her 6lb penalty for her course and distance win last week. She won with plenty in hand and has a fitness advantage over her chief rival Princess Spirit.
LEOPARDSTOWN 4.40
Kingbarns looked a world beater at one stage when he won the Racing Post Trophy before injury struck. He was last seen when running a cracker in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot when third to Olympic Glory and should have easily enough class for this field.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) GAELIC SILVER (2.25 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win BREAKING BITS (2.45 Wincanton)
BET 8pts win SCARBOROUGH (4.05 Southwell)
BET 8pts win ISHIAMBER (6.25 Kempton)
BET 1.5 pts acca above four with KINGSBARNS (4.40 Leopardstown)
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Has Tony McCoy chosen the wrong one again? The champion lost out badly at Cheltenham – he jocked himself off two winners! – and that Mr Infallibility halo about his head slipped for the first time in his career.
Granted that old head took a battering mentally at the festival – his son had to have a major operation – and was so bashed about physically that he could hardly speak for the war wounds after Goodwood Mirage was tripped up in the Fred Winter.
The Boss, J P McManus, had the winners of the Champion Hurdle and the World Hurdle with Jezki and More Of That while McCoy looked on from behind.
Today’s class-3 fare at Haydock is hardly comparable but punters will be worried that the great man has lost his touch if Smart Ruler (3.40 Haydock) beats his choice, Discovery Bay.
Smart Ruler (form under McCoy in novice company 112) has the good ground he needs today but has failed so far to make an impression in handicap company.
Discovery Bay (one run, one defeat with McCoy) has also won a novice on good going but more recently ran a decent second in a class-2 handicap.
Incidentally, did you notice that, in the aftermath of the festival, some of the losers – Big Buck’s in particular – got more space in the Press than did the winners.
That’s another effect of hype. It’s almost like the Press boys are saying: ‘How dare you beat the horses we put in the headlines! We don’t have enough copy about the winners.’
In particular, they don’t much know what to say about More Of That. And they’ve virtually ignored Gold Cup winner, Lord Windermere, and opted for making his trainer Jim Culloty the hero of the hour. Well deserved but, as the old jockeys’ adage has it: ‘You can’t come without the horse.’
Only McCoy fans would dispute that, and point to many occasions among his 4,000-plus winners when the 18 times champion has somehow injected his strength and enthusiasm into the horse and won where others would have failed.
But, with just the one win at Cheltenham (Taquin Du Seuil) his only success in 12 racing days, punters’ expectations are seemingly diminished at Haydock, according to the morning BETDAQ market.
Not so long ago, they would have backed the McCoy connection blind this afternoon. But, in his own words, he has sometimes struggled for rides outside the McManus string.
Today looks good on the figures: he has two mounts, including one in the bumper, for Don McCain (together they have a 75% strike rate, three from four, this season) and two for Brian Ellison (33% with 4-12)
2.10 Haydock James Reveley is one of the jocks seen by John Francome as comparable to McCoy. “I was in France when James won on Reve De Sivola for Nick Williams – it was his first Grade 1 win – and if AP has ridden it – they would have been going on about it for years.’
Reveley was on Ellison’s last winner but is riding father Keith’s Dancing Art in this one. He’s won a class higher and is racing off a similar mark but his success has come only at Newcastle and only over shorter distances.
Bennys Well, on the other hand, is dropping back in trip, and found his punishment for winning at Sedgefield (3m 3f) just too much for a CD repeat last time out.
I think the form presents it to McCoy’s mount, Presented. He is also up in the weights but has won a better class contest at Fakenham and might have been involved in the finish of the Eider Chase but for hitting the fifth last mighty hard. He’s 4.3 on BETDAQ as I write.
3.10 Haydock McCoy and Oscatara have to give weight all round here. Though yet to win a chase, this keen-going sort was a stone better hurdler than these. They meet another front-runner in Bincombe.
Bincombe, heavily-penalized Clondaw Knight and Rocking Blue all have experience of handicap chases, with Bincombe looking well in at first glance, getting almost a stone from Oscatara, but raised 9lb for winning a three-horse chase and without winning partner, Richard Johnson, who is at Warwick.
On today’s sound surface, weight counts for less than it has in the monsoon season we’ve just had and, in fact, on hurdles form, the result by revised ratings (all horses raised to 12st) would be: Oscatara 131, Rocking Blues 130, Bincombe and Clondaw Knight 119. The 5.8 Oscatara looks worth a pound.
3.40 Haydock Here’s that Discovery Bay v Smart Ruler race. Neither has scored outside novice class, and so, again, require their riders to ‘lift’ them.
In fact, the pair have already met twice. In November Smart Ruler was going well in a class 2 at Musselburgh when he stumbled three out; Discovery Bay was second.
Smart Ruler came out on top, returning to Musselburgh in January, when McCoy and Discovery Bay (said by the trainer to have a ‘breathing problem’) were more than 10 lengths behind him, albeit giving 11lb.
We can only assume they’ve done something for that breathing problem for Discovery Bay to be 5.5 on BETFDAQ this morning, with Smart Ruler 9.0. I think we should be told.
We are also without adequate information on why Karazhan has had just one run in the last 14 months. What we do know, on the stats, is that Nicky Henderson can get them ready first time and it didn’t happen witb Karazhan. What he’s done to the beast since then, we are not told.
Robbie would have eaten these for breakfast at one time, and several others have chances on their best behavior. Smart Ruler is the wrong price on what we know.
But I am also going to assume that Kudu Country will set off like a scalded cat as usual, so I took the 11.5 on BETDAQ this morning, expecting to trade off that position during the race, though I may let some of it run as I thought he might have finished in the three at Newcastle last month had the ground not been a bog.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win (nap) PRESENTED (2.10 Haydock)
BET 4pts win OSCATARA and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) BINCOMBE (3.10 Haydock)
BET 2.5pts win SMART RULER and 2pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) KUDU COUNTRY (3.40 Haydock)
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SATURDAY’S SPRING CUP COULD HOLD KEY TO THE COLTS’ FIRST CLASSIC
Saturday’s Spring Cup could become a Guineas trial. One of the 17 left in the Lingfield Listed is Ertijaal, a key figure in collateral form for the 2,000 Guineas, the colt’s first Classic at Newmarket in May.
Paul Hanagan has a full list of rides in Dubai tomorrow for his boss, Sheikh Hamdan, but could fly home in time to take his first ride of 2014 in England on the son of Oasis Dream.
After Ertijaal broke his maiden in June, he suffered a setback and had to miss a range of big two-year-old tests (any one of Prix Morny, Champagne Stakes and Gimcrack entries).
He would have been a rank outsider for these, and a nobody among the Guineas possibles, but the colt that beat him narrowly on his debut, Toormore, would go on to lift Ertijaal’s name above the ordinary.
While Ertijaal stayed in his box, Toormore, trained by Richard Hannon, won first the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood then one of the very top juvenile heats, the prestigious National Stakes at The Curragh, and is as low as 6-1 in a place for Newmarket with a BHA rating of 122.
Willie Haggas is keen to get more racecourse experience into Ertijaal who, off only 98, with just that maiden to his name, would not carry Group or Listed penalties into Saturday’s Spring Cup.
He would meet mainly class-3 horses from the autumn-winter AW scene, the equivalent of a Premier League outfit playing MK Dons on a level playing field.
WALKING LEGEND: JOHNNY MURTAGH THE ONCE IN A LIFETIME JOCKEY
Flat and jumps, the Irish are first again! With a dozen Cheltenham pots not yet needing their first polish, Ireland is straight out of the turf-season gate at The Curragh on Sunday.
Feature race of the day, the Irish Lincolnshire will predate and pre-empt the English version at Doncaster by six days.
Saddling one of the favourites, We’ll Go Walking, will be Johnny Murtagh, on his first big day since he quit the saddle to concentrate on training.
But his three-year-old Sea The Stars filly, Calorie, will – win or lose – get the biggest cheer of the day when Murtagh saddles her for the previous race, the Johnny Murtagh Lifetime Achievement In Racing Handicap.
The rider of all-time greats like Sinndar, Dylan Thomas, High Chapparal and Yeats, Johnny won four Irish and three English Derbys, half a dozen Guineas, five Ascot Gold Cups and four King Georges. To name but a few, as they say.
It has been my great good luck to see Johnny Murtagh, Mick Kinane and Lester Piggott in one lifetime of great racing. I would call them, in order, Mr Impeccable, Mr Cool.. and mister, did you see Piggott win that race!
TODAY’S RACING: MAKADAMIA CAN BEAT THE OTHERS BUT MUST ALSO BEAT THE RAIN
Just when you thought you heard their hooves rattle. Rain returns today and every sensible punters list of quality waited-with good-ground horses has to go on hold again.
But is the ‘90% chance of precipitation’ at Chepstow to be realised before the first race or afterwards? ‘Later in the day’ say the weathermen, so I hope the ground remains on top for the David Pipe mare, Makadamia (2.00), whose form in the mud can be ignored.
Her sire gets quality sound-surface horses.. and how? Ten jumpers and 17 Flat progeny have earned six-figure sums and more in prizemoney. Makadamia is regarded by connections as a cut above this field.
Otherwise, I’d rather go to Ludlow, where we know it’s softish already and where there are two class-3 quality races with eight runners. Tony McCoy’s mount, Strongly Suggested (3.30), wanting a sound surface and without his tongue-tie, has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, out to 12.5 as I write.
Lord Navits needs the rain to come in quantity, as he tries to pag a punishing 11lb rise on top of the 7lb he got for completing a double. Come On Annie’s bubble has already burst. Ted Dolly, the old man of the party, doesn’t appeal.
So it is that I arrived at Bullet Street, whose rating has been consistent, despite sound efforts on good ground. He’s a bit quirky but his Irish form says the more rain the better, and he has a 50% place-strike rate going right-handed.
Sonofagun (4.40) is another up in the weights so, like Oyster Shell and Zarzal, he is claimed off. You have to decide, does a claimer tip the scales in this race or is it a sign of panic?
With two of these three, it’s a case of trying to nullify their penalties; with the other – Zarzal – it’s about trying to conjure up something extra, down a total of 10lb on one-paced efforts. Not for me.
Last Shot has won round here, and Venetia Williams does well on the course, but he is also high in the handicap. I’m thinking the winner is likely to come from the three dropped in grade.
Parsnip Pete is down from a sequence of decent efforts in class 2, but ‘follow the losers at Cheltenham’ is a profitable motto at this time of year.
Highway Code (in the Byrne Group Plate) and Changing The Guard (in the Grand Annual) never really got involved in their respective festival heats.
Changing The Guard has winning form only on top of the ground and gives weight away to all in this, but Highway Code went nine consecutive races in the frame before Cheltenham and Josh Moore was aboard when he won impressively over further at Newbury. The days live outsider at 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win (nap) MAKADAMIA (2.00 Chepstow)
BET 6pts win BULLET STREET and 4pts win (stakes saver) LORD NAVITS (3.30 Ludlow)
BET 2pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) HIGHWAY CODE (4.40 Ludlow)
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THE CHANGING FACE OF A RACE: PLAY SAFE AND KEEP YOUR DAQ UP
Keep your Daq up, and grab the offers as things change. That’s my advice in answer to the questions I get concerning when to feel confident about backing a horse, or whether to lay, using market indicators.
Yesterday’s opening race at Chepstow will serve as a good example, of how a race changes from your opening position and presents new possibilities for a trade to cover or expand your involvement.
My opening position on that race was to take around 4-1 Makadamia, a mare working like a good ‘un at the Pipe Academy, and expected to close.
CHANGE 1
The 7-4 morning favourite Churchtown Love went odds on. That had all the makings of a lay in the circumstances of her being claimed off, as though connections were worried they couldn’t give the 5lb penalty away to 15 others who were in receipt of 7lb. A layer had those 15 running for him.
CHANGE 2
On the other hand, Makadamia was far too easy to back at 5-1, even in the face of the strong support for Churchtown Love to 11-8 on. Shumthing wrong shumwhere. All this seemed to flag ‘turn-up expected’.
CHANGE 3
Churchtown Love threw her jockey at the start and they were called back to the tapes, with Churchtown Love easing only slightly when she had become a definite lay, yet still around 4-5.
Meanwhile, Makadamia came in only half a point, as if to say ‘the favourite may be rubbish but you’ll get nowhere backing me either!’
CHANGE 4
On the other hand, Ginger Fizz had been backed just before the tapes went up and the late money was now well visible at the time of the recall. Nothing else fancied; so take some Fizz and fast!
CHANGE 5
The starter lets them go again and a reluctant Churchtown Love barges her neighbour as the tapes go up. Lay her to win, lay her a place, and lay her once again until the cows come home (she’s one of them).
RESULT
Churchtown Love had used up all her vital finishing energy and was out of the frame, seventh at 5-4 on. Ginger Fizz won. If the form book is to be believed, we could claim we were unlucky with Makadama, who seemed to be cruising two out.
I’m told that the Good Book will say she was fourth, with ‘not much room approaching the last.’ But I’ve marked her down as a bridle horse. She looked good until let down and ‘asked’ then, if anything, found her own trouble, cover for her cowardice.
The market also knew about Noche De Reyes, didn’t it. That’s your problem with moderate horses – you don’t know when they’re having a going day – but clearly the BETDAQ market can put you wise.
TODAY’S RACING: EVEN IF LOOKED BIG AT 8.4 ON BETDAQ THIS MORNING
2.40 Newbury I set my alarm, hoping to lay the 4-1 Racing Post forecast favourite, Deciding Moment. No such luck. He was 8.0 on BETDAQ, more in keeping with his stable’s 10-year run of defeat at Newbury and failure to win any race – Flat or jumps – anywhere for 20 weeks.
The step up in trip, so jumping at a slower pace, might help Royal Guardsman, who is rarely fluent. Shockingtimes also jumps badly and Mic’s Delight hasn’t won for two years.
It all seems to add up to a golden opportunity first time over fences in England, straight into a handicap, for French-chase winner Ziga Boy, who looked a powerful individual when launched over here in a hurdles race.
3.10 Newbury Even If has not been knocked about over 2m or so this season and the step up to 3m should galvanize a son of Kings Theatre (he’s got the likes of Cue Card and Balthazar King) out of a Strong Gale mare who has already thrown a decent stayer or two. I took 8.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
4.10 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap) This, the quality heat on the opening day of the Winter Derby meeting, fields nine winners of 41 races.
The best track stats on offer are about Forecful Appeal, five out of eight at Lingfield, and with Graham Lee 50% from a select number of rides for Simon Dow, but he seems to be in a class-4 rut off a rating higher than he’s ever won off.
Andrew Balding has saddled three firsts from his last four runners, Mark Johnston is on a winner-a-day average and Richard Hannon’s only starter in the last two weeks scored readily.
Balding’s Purcell had Hannon’s Brownsea Brink behind at Ascot in September but that was on soft ground. Purcell is likely to need the race, but Brownsea Brink, a backend improver who’s won in class 2, and broke his maiden on AW, won first time out last year. Tasty at 7.4 on BETDAQ, as I write.
Chilworth Icon and Heavy Metal are potential cats among these pigeons: both were Group-winning two-year-olds who lost their way at three but reappear gelded.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.5pts win (nap) ZIGA BOY (2.40 Newbury)
BET 2.7pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) EVEN IF (3.10 Newbury)
LAY 10pts FORCEFUL APPEAL and BET 3pts win BROWNSEA BRINK (4.10 Lingfield)
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2.40 Lingfield (Hever Sprint) Favourites have finished 483577 in the last six years, their dismal story partly told by the effect of the draw, with stalls 11515 winning in five of those years.
Last year’s winner (when 5 beat 1) was Hoof It’s sister, Ladies Are Forever, back for more off 9lb higher now but a Group-3 winner since and beaten only three lengths in the European championship sprint, the Abbaye at Longchamp (Stepper Point held).
Ladies Are Forever didn’t run again until this year’s debut on today’s course, over a furlong further, paying the penalty for lack of fitness and a wide berth in stall 11. That should have primed her and she’s in 4 today.
Even Stevens (from the 1 stall) has been dueling all year with Silken Express, who is 2-1 up (Addictive Dream and Swiss Cross held) and getting weight in the adjacent stall 2.
They should give Ladies Are Forever a good tow and bring her stamina into play. I took 5.2 on BETDAQ this morning in a now traditional punter-friendly Saturday orange adding up to 105%.
3.15 Lingfield (Spring Cup) Paul Flanagan flies back from Dubai to partner Ertijaal, narrowly beaten on debut by the subsequent National Stakes winner, the 122-rated leading Classic hope Toormore.
This is Ertijaal’s first run back – off only 98 – after a setback cut short his two-year-old career and I remember Dubawi Gold winning this Spring Cup before running up to Frankel in the Guineas.
Paco Boy also won it en route to the Greenham and subsequent triumphs in the Sandown Mile and the Queen Anne, and the race is clearly much better at finding you progressive quality horses to follow than is the Winter Derby, particularly when ‘winner trained R Hannon.’
The Hannon stable’s form in the race, Dubawi Gold and Paco Boy included, is 120112, and Expert can be expected to go well, though beaten five lengths by Toormore in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.
Alutiq, overfaced in the pattern last year, came back to form when winning a Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq conditions race at Kempton in January but fillies have won the Cup only once in a decade.
2.55 Newbury (Mares Hurdle Finale) Toubeera has a massive task, giving up to a stone and a half away; so, too, The Pirate’s Queen.
Maiden lightweights have won this but ratings buffs will be astonished if she can score off a massive 128, at least two stone more than any maiden has carried to victory before.
On the plus side, she’s in the right age range. You can usually ignore mares over the age of six, with none able to reach the first two in nine seasons.
Forget her finishing behind Molly’s Diva at Wincanton in February, because the ground was heavy and because the Alan King yard had been shut down and was only just finding its legs again.
She has the sound surface she needs today, but was easy to back this morning at 12.0 (before the defection of Free Thinking) and Kingy also runs Midnight Cataria, 16lb better for five lengths with Toubeera.
Another good-ground mare, she surprised connections (20-1) when scoring at Ludlow over 3m on heavy, whereas, though bred for a trip, The Pirate’s Queen has never reached the frame beyond 17f., dropping right out when asked (Wincanton February 2m 4f).
Westerner, whose progeny perform so well on top of the ground, and had a fine Cheltenham with Western Warhorse and Deputy Dan, has a femme fatale here in Run Ructions Run.
‘Ructions’ has always been in the first two over hurdles and, in theory, is 10lb ‘wrong’ in this off 126. Strictly, she comes out ‘the same horse’ as Legacy Gold, a 136 to whom she conceded 4lb but was beaten less than four lengths at Leicester in January.
Her trainer, Tim Easterby, himself had a great Cheltenham, with Hawk High taking the Fred Winter and Trustan Times involved in a four-way photo for the Pertemps Final.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: With the BETDAQ orange adding up to only 106%, I could get 8.0 Run Ructions Run, a point or two above the bookies’ offers. Midnight Cataria looked big at 13.0.
If you back one King mare, you have to back the other, but I will declare The Pirate’s Queen only as a saver to cover my stakes in the race. I don’t count break-even in my contest with Pricewise.
3.30 Newbury Every winner of this has come from the bottom three in the handicap but, though the race has been dropped in class this year, it has attracted Graded-chase players, Highland Lodge, Niceonfrankie, Roalco De Farges and Storm Survivor.
Emma Lavelle warns that Highland Lodge is usually best in the early part of the season, and I don’t want to be on a Flemensfirth on this type of ground though, as a front or van runner, he should be shorter in running than his 8.2 this morning and get you holding on to your mouse until the final fence.
Niceonefrankie is hard to win with, still 7lb higher than his last success, and this is a mile further than his longest winning race at this level.
Roalco De Farges is a Spring horse and today’s trip looks perfect if he can reproduce his second in the 2012 Sandown Gold Cup off 7lb lower today. Has been brought back steadily for this.
Storm Survivor cannot be ignored, and he will appreciate the drying ground, but his total absence of form on the top tracks is a worry in this company.
Ballypatrick should run into a place, as a proven stayer, but it’s hard to back him for a win on today’s surface. He has scored just the once, suggesting he is very one paced.
3.50 Lingfield (Winter Derby) I reported earlier in the week that the last six Winter Derby winners all came from the pattern, including Farraaj (had won Listed, placed Groups 1 and 3)
His Winter Derby win last year came at the expense of Robin Hoods Bay (second), with Tinshu fourth and the 2012 winner, Premio Loco, fifth. The quartet are back for more, so, too, 2012 third, Circumvent.
Otherwise we have only Chil The Kite (won Listed, second and third Group 2 and third Group 3) and Grandeur (second Grade 1, won Grade 2 and second Group 2, third Group 3, won Listed twice) with the right qualifications.
Dick Doughtywylie has won a Listed over today’s CD but has been working hard at home, lead horse to The Fugue. Occasionally that’s a good thing but, more often than not, lead horses get used up or disappointed by the dominance of their work companion.
The dark horse of the race is Vodkato (huge at 18.5 on BETDAQ), who was in a blanket finish to a race on the Chantilly Polytrack recently behind Grand Prix winner and Woodbine International fourth, Now We Can, after a short neck defeat in big-field AW by Smoking Sun, both races tying in form wise with the former Ascot Champion Stakes hero, Cirrus Des Aigles.
Farraaj is officially 12lb behind Grandeur, who won the trial for today’s race in February but has earned most of his reputation as a globetrotter.
In fact, he has won only one other Listed (Goodwood, September) in UK, and his Graded success is American, the Oak Tree Derby (turf, Santa Anita) and the Hollywood Turf Cup.
That Winter Derby Trial is, therefore, his only claim to fame on a manmade track, albeit he finished a 6lb better horse than Robin Hood’s Bay, who was just half a length behind Farraaj in this Derby itself last year.
Windhoek didn’t make it at Group level and has won only a Meydan handicap since his Listed success at the Newmarket Guineas meeting last May.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The BETDAQ market is very fair (103% orange this morning) and I’m going for a banker double with Grandeur. That reads like ‘head down, eyes closed’ but I’m really banking that one of Ertijaal or Grandeur wins and gambling that both do.
TODAY: DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.7pts win LADIES ARE FOREVER (2.40 Lingfield)
BET 2.8pts win RUN RUCTIONS RUN, 1.6pts win and place MIDNIGHT CATARIA and 0.6pts win (stakes saver) THE PIRATE’S QUEEN (2.55 Newbury)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) ERTIJAAL (3.15 Lingfield)
BET 3pts win ROALCO DE FARGES (3.30 Newbury)
BANKER: BET 20pts win GRANDEUR, and 1.1pts win and place VODKATO (3.50 Lingfield)
TOMORROW: The start of the Flat at The Curragh, with the Irish Lincolnshire.
NEXT WEEK: Daqman’s Flat horses to follow and his ABC Guide to the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster.
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2.10 The Curragh Jim Bolger, going for a four-timer in this maiden, including his unleashing of Dawn Approach in 2012, today saddles hot-pot, Alertness, a son of his beloved but luckless Teofilo, winner five times in a row and champion juvenile but injured before the Guineas.
The stablemate, Alainn, is from a sprinting family and traces back to the lightning-fast Dayjur. How Bolger performs in this and other early races will tell us more about Einstein’s Folly’s chance in the Irish Lincolnshire.
2.40 The Curragh Another Bolger attraction, Aerialist, by Sea The Stars and out of a mare related to a Kentucky Oaks winner, pitted against the Aga Khan’s Rousayan, and our first Ballydoyle three-year-old yardstick for the season, The Islander. Only 61 to come!
3.40 The Curragh (Park Express Stakes) Three-year-olds are 6-5 up on the older fillies in this, but a clear favourite hasn’t won since the race’s inception in 2003.
Tommy Stack (two from two since 2010) and Gentleman Jim Bolger (three wins since 2004) have left Ballydoyle trailing, with just the one for Aidan O’Brien in the race’s 11-year history.
You don’t expect the winner of this Group 3 to come out of a handicap, and the Bolger runner, Morga, has won only once, and that on firm ground.
Stack’s Wannabe Better progressed last summer after breaking her maiden at the ninth attempt. That doesn’t smack of a Group season ahead in 2014 but Tommy does get them ready early and hopes her experience will count.
Ballydoyle’s English and Irish Oaks entry Dance With Another is out of a Sadler’s Wells sister to O’Brien’s Irish 1,000 winner, Yesterday, and O’Brien has reported that she likes plenty of cut in the ground and declared his intention to get her ready early.
Karl Burke successfully campaigned Odeliz in France – Listed win at Longchamp – but the stable is currently missing strike with the last six runners on AW backed in to 5-1 or shorter – 230203 – and Odeliz, beaten on soft and very soft in France, has scored only from good to firm to good to soft.
Dermot Weld’s Vote Often has that ‘could be anything’ look, a Beat Hollow out of a Generous mare who should stay 1m 4f but was capable of winning over 7f at the backend.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Vote Often (7.4) and Dance With Another (8.4) were big enough to dutch on BETDAQ this morning against the exposed Wannabe Better and the French winner, Odeliz, who may need better ground.
4.10 The Curragh (Johnny Murtagh Lifetime Achievement In Racing Handicap) Again, just one winning favourite in the decade but, inevitably, Johnny’s Calorie, a maiden daughter of Sea The Stars, will be backed to win ‘his own’ handicap but her sire gets mostly top-of-the-ground horses.
Interesting that the leading trainer in the race, Dermot Weld (two wins), has put blinkers on the grey Go For Goal. Calorie and Go For Goal, along with Pearl Earring and Pixie Hollow, are the lightly raced two-year-olds who showed some form.
My pick is a 6.6 offer on BETDAQ, Pearl Erring, whose sire, Excellent Art, has a near-25% strike rate for his progeny on heavy ground. He is also the sire of Chapter Seven in the next, the Irish Lincolnshire.
4.40 The Curragh (Irish Lincolnshire) Stalls 12 to 19 have won seven times, and there have been only two winners in single figures. Three times since 2006, when the ground has been heavy, as today, high numbers have swamped the field.
In 2006, when 24 ran, the result by draw was 19, 25, 22, 26, 21, 20. In 2008 (26 ran), it was stalls 27, 26, 5, 17, 16, 18. And last year (20 ran), it was 15, 3, 12, 14, 19, 18.
BEACON LODGE: Tommy Stack has won this twice and been placed three times from nine runners. He’s been lucky with the draw for Beacon Lodge (gate 16), though the gelding is nine now and his claimer has had only three winners in his life, 0-30 on AW this year.
Not so lucky are Aidan O’Brien and Johnny Murtagh (We’ll Go Walking, campaigned in the pattern but won on the debut on good ground, is in 9).
O’Brien’s Ballydoyle runner, Afonso De Souza (third in a Group 3 to a Dewhurst winner) is in gate 10, and is by Henrythenavigator, who usually passes on his hatred for soft ground.
BOLD THADY QUILL: Third last year, is well berthed in 17 but 9lb higher (a massive 16lb worse off with the runner-up, Cheval Rouge, now stall 1) because he’s caught the handicapper’s eye racing in the Pattern since then.
STUCCODOR: Defining Year (stall 11), another Pattern performer, remains a maiden over hurdles but quickly put his AW prep for this to bed over a furlong shorter, and has a good claimer on board. He won the 7f race on this card (now the Johnny Murtagh) three years ago. However, the trainer, four times a winner of this, reckons better ground is needed.
He seems to prefer Stuccodor – so does Pat Smullen– a Listed third who completed five winners in a row last Spring and has also been hurdling. High in the weights but the compensation of stall 18.
REGULATION (stall 15) is from the 2007 winning stable. Three times a CD winner, has been out in Dubai for the winter.
Demands respect as Irish Cambridgeshire runner-up, but prefers better ground. The hood could transform Man Of Erin (stall 21) but it will have to.
EINSTEIN’S FOLLY: Second in the 4.10 race on this card last year, looks handy for this, as a four-year-old drawn 20, thought worth a crack at the Gallinule last Spring.
CHAPTER SEVEN: Ger Lyons’ Chapter Seven (stall 12) has Jamie Spencer continuing his association with the horse after two runs together in Dubai this Spring, now blinkered first time.
Chapter Seven was only a length off the winner, giving a stone, in the Dubai Duty Free (1m 2f) in September and backed ante-post for the Cambridgeshire.
But he swerved the big handicap and instead, with Spencer up, was again beaten around a length in the Group-3 Darley Stakes behind Sandown Mile (Group 2) runner-up Highland Knight.
The English raider, Lord Aeryn (stall 13), is down in the weights and has handled soft ground but has winning form only on a sound surface.
Pivotals love soft ground but his son, Shipyard (19), close up in the market this morning, is hard to assess after one handicap, though the horses around him that day have done nothing.
Canary Row was once thought of as a Group horse but hasn’t won since his two-year-old days (5f heavy) and claiming rider Ben Dawson has just one win on his CV, so is hardly value for his claim at this stage of his career.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Chapter Seven (13.5 on BETDAQ as I write), close up in a Group race, is hard to win with and needs a going day but first-time blinkers should help. Jamie Spencer stays on board after three runs on a sound surface at Meydan.
The draw is not such a worry, since Chapter Seven gets behind, so expect him to be brought with a long run through tiring horses. Potentially a bigger price in running.
The only one for money this morning, Stuccodor (6.8 on BETDAQ) won first time out on the Flat last season, loves the ground and is fit from hurdling.
With Einstein’s Folly, you need to check how earlier runners on the card fare for Jim Bolger. His and Tommy Stack’s are usually the early-bird stables.
I’ve swerved ‘Einstein’ on the grounds that it’s Folly to back a horse whose only success came when dictating the pace in a small field. I wouldn’t like to bet he can do that with 21 others in pursuit on heavy.
BANKER NAP OF THE DAY: Tiqris (4.15 Wincanton) spoiled a sequence of naps for me when brought down, going like the winner, at Newbury. Does not seem ground dependent, and the stable is four from seven, including a fine performance for me with Roalco De Farges yesterday, same connections as my Grand National hope, Balthazar King.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 3pts win VOTE OFTEN and 2.5pts win DANCE WITH ANOTHER (3.40 The Curragh)
BET 3.6pts win PEARL EARING (4.10 The Curragh)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) TIQRIS (4.15 Wincanton)
BET 3.4pts win STUCCODOR, 1.6pts win and place CHAPTER SEVEN (4.40 The Curragh)
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Early-bird horses and trainers win year on year. Make yourself a list of stables which are successful in March-April-May, and log the horses that score when fresh.
The stables I would nominate for big Spring handicap success would be William Haggas, Richard Fahey, Charles Hills and – in this particular year – Tim Easterby.
The Fahey yard has struck with such outsiders that its level-stakes profit was 103 points to a single point staked on each April runner over the last five years. In that time, Willie Haggas has scored at a strike rate of 21%.
David Barron’s five-year tally almost matched that in both March and April, and the two months showed a total of 65 points profit. Mark Johnston has had more than 150 March-April winners in the five years. And Richard Hannon scored that many in May alone.
I’ve spotted a few horses (below) which go well fresh and are nominated not just for those big yards who score regularly in the Spring but for smaller stables (Brittain, Tate, Candy) who give the layers an early wake-up call.
CARRAGOLD (Mel Brittain): He’s an eight-year-old now but has won second or third time out for the last three seasons. He needs 10 furlongs and top of the ground for preference though, as horses age, their old legs tend to appreciate a bit of ‘give’.
ES QUE LOVE (Mark Johnston): To put it politely, Es Que Love has ‘character’. He’s a ‘thinker,’ perhaps because he’s an entire. But, in the early weeks of the season, when he’s forgotten about the pain of exerting himself, he can win races. Form on first two outings in April and May for the last three years: 31/11/10.
GOOD SPEECH (Tom Tate): The stable has had just the one starter recently, a winner at 14-1. Good Speech was running in class 3 and 4 last backend but back him, if returned to class 5 (form-figures 2122). That means he needs to shed a couple of pounds.
HEERAAT (William Haggas): Another entire, he was a winner first time out last season. Heeraat is ultra-game and genuine. Stepped up from class-3 handicaps to Group-3 success. Favourite track Newbury, so look out for him at the Greenham meeting.
LADY LOCH (Richard Fahey): A mare hard to keep sound but her first-time record is 3/2/1 over three seasons, and she’ll no doubt be got ready while there’s cut in the ground.
LILAC LACE (Tim Easterby): The stable had a huge season in handicaps last year and has just hit a hat-trick with its jumpers, and added a second big race, the Mares Finale with Run Ructions Run, to its Cheltenham victory with High Hawk. Tremendous stuff. Lilac Lace’s April-May form last season: 111. Acts on any going.
MUSIC MASTER (Henry Candy): Started last season with a win and ended it with a Group-3 place, shooting up 24lb. Only six starts since his debut and can improve again.
NEWSTEAD ABBEY (David Barron): Cleverly named – by Byron out of a Selkirk mare – landed a hat-trick last Spring on turf and AW. Has had a run back on Polytrack. Probably needs to lose a few pounds.
ONE WORD MORE (Charles Hills): A winner first time out in April last year, was then overfaced in the German Guineas and the Jersey Stakes, returning to handicap company with a near miss at Doncaster on good to soft, and now a Lincoln entry.
TICKLED PINK (Lady Cecil): Form figures first time in three seasons: 2/2/1. Improved 25lb to run in the Abbaye at the backend but the ground was against her. Form on good/firm, Group 3 or lower: 22111. On good/soft: 20000. Likes straight track (Sandown, Newmarket).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7.5pts win BULL AND BUSH at 3.6, and 1.8pts win and place CORONEA LILLY at 12.0 (3.00 Towcester)
BET 10pts win (nap) BROWNS BROOK at 3.1 (4.50 Taunton)
BET 1.2pts win and place TARA TAVEY at 17.5 (5.20 Taunton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Blue Buttons (2.50 Taunton), Bull And Bush (3.00 Towcester) and Browns Brook (4.50 Taunton)
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QUOTE: THERE’S SOMETHING DIFFERENT ABOUT AUSTRALIA THAT’S HARD TO FIND
AGENA (3, Aidan O’Brien): I seem to have two Galileos out of different Storm Cat mares – this one and Marvellous – though I didn’t plan it that way. By the same sire, but a different Storm Cat mare again, was Misty For Me, winner of the 2011 Irish 1,000 Guineas.
But Agena’s dam is Dietrich, dual Group-3 sprint winner, who filled my wallet in the King George V at Goodwood in 2001. I can see Agena running over a mile (you’ve got to try them at the Classic distance), then dropping down in trip and winning a major sprint.
AUSTRALIA (3, Aidan O’Brien): A Galileo out of seven-times Group/Grade 1 winner Ouija Board. Just the sound of that mating has the mental betting-tills going ching-ching!
My early two-year-old vibes last year were for Free Eagle, Dermot Weld’s High Chaparral half-brother to Sapphire, and sure enough the Eagle landed big bucks for me first time out at Leopardstown.
But, back over CD, and long odds-on in the Breeders’ Cup Trial, he was pulverized six lengths by Australia, who swept by in a couple of strides.
Ballydoyle comment: ‘There’s something different about him which is hard to find.’ You can say that again! Goes straight to the 2,000 Guineas, then the Derby.
CAMBRIDGE (3, Charles Hills): The stallion, Rail Link, had 45% winners to runners last season. Here he’s served the Selkirk mare Alumni, winner of the Cheshire Oaks, and produced a lovely filly for Juddmonte Farms.
Rail Links like a firm surface and Selkirks love some cut so the jury is out on going preference. It was ‘going good’ when she appeared late last year to win her maiden at Nottingham. BETDAQ offers of 27.0 for the Oaks.
ERTIJAAL (3, William Haggas): Landed a banker bet for me on Lingfield Polytrack on Saturday and expected to return there for the all-weather championships on Good Friday.
Ran up to Toormore on the debut last season but this Oasis Dream colt looks Group 3 at best, albeit a potential top earner at 6f and 7f. Impressive enough at Lingfield to earn offers of 29.0 on BETDAQ for the Guineas.
MARVELLOUS (3, Aidan O’Brien): Her dam, the Cherry Hinton winner You’resothrilling, a daughter of Storm Cat, was a full sister to Giants Causeway and this Galileo filly is in the front rank at Ballydoyle.
Marvellous drew that very epithet when, unfancied, she scored at Navan in October from I’m Yours, a 420,000-euro Moyglare Stud daughter of Invincible Spirit, who followed up at Leopardstown and has Dermot Weld also dreaming of the Classics. BETDAQ offers of 16.5 Marvellous for the Oaks.
MISS FRANCE (3, Andre Fabre): The Wildenstein filly was a ready winner of the Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) at Newmarket in September and is likely to return there for the 1,000 Guineas, as she needs top of the ground. Favourite on BETDAQ.
KINGSTON HILL (3, Roger Varian): This Derby-bred beautiful mover hasn’t missed a beat either on the racetrack last year or in his recent early gallops with the 2,000 Guineas in mind (9.0 on BETDAQ).
Though his two-year-old career, capped by success in the Racing Post trophy, was on an easy surface, his action suggests that he is sure to enjoy fast ground.
LAT HAWILL (3, Marco Botti): Sire’s progeny has 7.5 average winning-distance; dam’s sire 7.1. Yet this highly regarded sort is related to winners on the Flat at Listed and Group level up to 1m 4f and over hurdles up to 2m 3f.
It’s one thing to expect a Guineas and Derby winner from this column, but do I dare to predict the St Leger winner in March? Well, I’ve got the Arc winner here, so why not!
Lat Hawill has a Greenham trial date at Newbury when connections hope he will belie his 18.5 offers on BETDAQ for the 2,000 Guineas. Speed allied to such prospective stamina would make this colt formidable.
TOORMORE (3, Richard Hannon): Richard Junior takes over a potential superstar from Richard Senior, with his two-year-old form franked at the highest level.
The runner-up in his Vintage Stakes win went on to take the Champagne Stakes and the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and the one that chased him home in the National Stakes had taken a prestigious juveniles double in Ireland, the Railway and the Phoenix.
Toormore preps for Newmarket in the Craven Stakes. Offers of 17.5 on BETDAQ for the 2,000 Guineas. He’ll try to follow up in the Irish 2,000.
TREVE (4, Christianne ‘Criquette’ Head-Maarek): The only older animal in my Ten. The others are all from the second-season Classic generation.
The French scene was buzzing with talk of a new star when she took the Prix Diane but became international news when the filly she beat that day went on to take the Irish Oaks.
Treve then won the Vermeille, traditional fillies’ prep race for the Arc, in which she triumphed from the worst possible draw, slamming by five lengths the 2012 runner-up Orfevre and the 2013 French Derby winner, Intello.
QUOTE: I HAVEN’T HAD A WINNER AT SOUTHWELL FOR YEARS AND YEARS.. AND YEARS!
SOUTHWELL: Incredibly, four of the trainers with horses in the 3.25 sprint have, collectively, had 257 runners over a grand total of 26 years without winning a race.
Giles Bravery has the worst figures with 70 losers in 12 years. Colin Teague and Mandy Rowland are half as bad, and Michael Chapman has gone a mere 616 days without winning on the course.
If we also knock out Ronald Harris (sorry about that, Ron), who is in the trade-paper’s ‘cold trainers’ table, we are left with four horses, and the list of offers in the orange is transformed from 100-112 against us, as I write, to around 100-70 in our favour.
We can’t guarantee that Bob, Carol, Ted and Alice – sorry, Mick, Ron, Colin and Mandy – will carry on losing and, in a class-6 sprint on sand, you and I are equally likely to have a similar run, choosing from among this dead wood.
But those trainers’ figures are just as much form as anything else, form is the only way to bet, and we are in a punter-friendly zone (and how!) if we back one of the quartet.
Dancing Freddie has been placed over CD twice this month but, off a mark around 30lb below his last winning rating nearly two years ago, he still can’t get his head back in front and may still be smarting from his hard race (jockey got a whip ban) a week ago.
You have to go back even further to Incomparable’s last success and he finished behind Dancing Freddie a fortnight back. Captain Scooby can’t get out of bed at the start of a race and wakes up only when the others have gone a half-furlong.
It leaves me fancying Imaginary Diva (huge at 8.0 on BETDAQ in these circumstances), with Tom Queally back in the plate, ousting the boy riders, who have been steering ever since Tom won on her last August.
CHEPSTOW: Another betting opportunity may be provided by opposing the veterans Nozic and Mon Chevalier, who occupy 40% of the field in the 3.00 handicap chase at Chepstow, and take out almost as big a percentage from the ‘book’ of offers.
Mon Chevalier is woefully short of pace and Nozic’s has had his once-a-year win. Visors have helped Islandmagee into a place but he continues to show lack of resolution.
Tokyo Javilex is a deliberate jumper who can lose ground at his fences. So I’ll rely on Richard Johnson and Walden Prince, unlucky faller when winning at Newton Abbot and the ‘moral’ last time, not beaten far giving weight to the winner at Stratford.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win WALDEN PRINCE (3.00 Chepstow)
BET 2.8pts win (nap) IMAGINARY DIVA (3.25 Southwell)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double the two.
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REMEMBER THE GOLDEN RULE: THE MAN WHO STANDS ALONE GETS THE BEST PRICE
Age: Obviously two-year-olds are an unknown quantity but most injurious to the wallet are three-year-old handicaps. Beware of them until the form has settled down around Derby time.
Remember the golden rule for three-year-old Classic trials: last year’s form is last year’s form; this year’s form is this. Some horses will have matured and developed, some will have ‘stood still’, and others ‘not grown’ or even gone backwards.
In all-aged races, you’re looking for improvement from the four-year-olds and possibly those aged five. Older than that and a horse’s form plateaus out or deteriorates, except for sprinters; they are a different breed and go on winning up to double-figure age.
Weight: At age three and four, improvers can climb the ratings and resist the attentions of the handicapper but older horses should only be backed close to their previous winning rating.
The rating determines the weight carried but remember that the races are graded, so a high rating and big weight in a class 4 could be a moderate rating and a much lower weight in a class 2.
Stats: Whatever some of the so-called experts tell you, stats are vitally important. When you ask what kind of horse in what circumstances usually wins the race, it’s obvious that patterns are important.
Trainers are creatures of habit: follow their winning patterns (they do it themselves!). The draw is often vital in determining the outcome of a race; swat up on it.
Don’t believe what others say, and use their hype to your advantage. Remember, the man who stands alone gets the best prices.
Fitness: As a general rule, a handicapper should be left alone for two races before you can be sure he is race fit. But there are other factors (see Freshness below).
In assessing a horse, be sure to consider the conditions: is it the right trip on the right going? That also applies to hindsight: check before writing a horse off: defeat may have been occasioned by the wrong conditions and the run can be ignored.
Freshness: There are three types of animals that win first time. The horse that goes well fresh; the horse from a stable that gets them ready at home; and – of vital importance in the Spring – the horse that’s ready early because later on he is sure to be beaten when everything else is fit.
He must, must, must be ‘got up’ for a sneak success, when he alone has an edge on him. What other chance has he got? You know he’ll be overwhelmed when the better horses are fit.
By the way, when he’s won his race, cross him off your list, even if he looked good winning it. As we surmised, he was probably going to score by default.
Hoofnote: A horse that does best after a break, and ‘goes well fresh’, is not to be confused with a horse that ‘ran fresh’, which basically means he was too keen and excited for his own good first run back.
He expended his nervous energy before it was needed for the finish. At the start of the season such a horse will need a run to ‘take the freshness out of him.’
False favourites: Punters memories are fuelled by hype, and they will go on backing certain horses race after race, as if their very name is magic.
But such animals are very often among the false favourites, and you must learn to love them for this very different reason: taken out of the total percentage in the orange, they could leave you able to back everything else in the race and show a profit.
Lays: Of course, the short cut to a profit on a false favourite is to lay him. But be warned that, unless the lay is part of your positioning on a particular race, you must assess the longer-term outcome before opposing horses with hard cash in a sequence of lays.
Even sticking to favourites (or nearly so), I’ve ascertained in this column that I need to aim at around a 72% strike rate to give myself a decent return over a period of time.
TODAY’S BETDAQ RACING AT KEMPTON: DASH CAN LAND THE NAP
There’s a quartet of BETDAQ sponsored races at Kempton tonight.
6:30 Betdaq Free 25 No Lose Bet Fillies’ Handicap (4yo+, Class 5, 1m 2f, 7 runners)
I’m sweet on the chances of the Giles Bravery trained Puzzle Time who despite having the least experience in this fillies handicap, also has by far the most potential. She’s got a very odd profile. She started her racing career in bumpers last year and won a 1m 6f event at Warwick in November where she made most of the running. She has been running lately on the all-weather and was a winner over 1m 4f at Wolverhampton last time out under today’s pilot William Carson. It’s a wide open market on BETDAQ (4.1 the field at the time of writing) despite there only being seven runners – very much, again, a theme of the day – at Southwell there is an average of just six runners per race today.
7:00 Betdaq 500 In Free Bets Handicap (4yo+, Class 6, 1m 4f, 7 runners)
Interesting to see some early money flying around for Gravitate who has started at big odds in all his recent races including last time out here when 6th over the 1m 2f trip. He was staying on that day and should be suited by the longer trip tonight. Able Dash though looks the one. He won over course and distance last time out at 11/1 in a race that looked more competitive than tonights. The third placed runner gave the form a solid boost with a subsequent six length success.
8:00 Betdaq No Premium Charge Handicap (4yo+, Class 4, 7f, 7 runners)
Athletic won well here last time out but it came in a grade lower and he may find life tougher in this company. The Mark Johnston trained Spin Artist looks a classic win, with place lay insurance proposition. He’s a horse that either runs very well or very badly and that gives us an angle in on BETDAQ. We can back Spin Artist at 5.3 on the BETDAQ win market but also lay him at 2.6 on the place market to cover stakes. There’s only two places up for grabs and the nightmare scenario is if he finishes second but I don’t believe that will be the case.
8:30 Betdaq – The Sports Betting Exchange Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) (4yo+, Class 4, 1m, 7 runners)
This looks the trickiest race of the four. I’ll take a chance on The Great Gabrial at big odds on BETDAQ. He came back to form at Southwell last time out but seems equally at home on the Polytrack.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win PUZZLE TIME (6.30 Kempton)
BET 8pts win (nap) ABLE DASH (7.00 Kempton)
BET 5pts win (with saver 5pts PLACE LAY) SPIN ARTIST (8.00 Kempton)
BET 2pts win, 2pts PLACE THE GREAT GABRIAL (8.30 Kempton)
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Are Hayley and Megan the punters’ angels? The split for the Spring Mile (3.15) and Lincoln Handicap (3.50) tomorrow gives girl riders a big Doncaster double chance.
Ex-pony-race champion Megan Carberry, cousin of Paul and Nina, takes 7lb off Dream Walker to reduce the grey’s weight to bottom of the pile in the Mile.
And Hayley Turner rides Bronze Angel in the Lincoln for the first time since the combo had to settle for bronze, third in the Britannia, at Royal Ascot in 2012. Here’s what the stats say in my Lincoln ABC:
ABCDX NORSE BLUES
Good-ground winner of the Spring Mile here in 2012 and Thirsk Hunt Cup in early May last season, returning to the Yorkshire track to win the Summer Cup in August.
Well beaten since off today’s higher mark and unlikely to improve at age six but has scored after a long absence. Wins from the front and from behind. Prefers a sound surface.
ABCX HI THERE
The seeming second string for trainer Richard Fahey (see Gabrial’s Kaka) is up 7lb for back-to-back class-2 wins on autumn soft ground and started last season with success on soft. Winner from 7f to 10f.
ABCX ROBERT THE PAINTER
With burgeoning Northern yard, and landed hat-trick (in visors) at a mile in summer of 2013 on firmish surface. Placed on heavy but win form on no worse than easy side of good.
Second in Ripon Rowels when 2lb higher than his Doncaster mark. Outsider for each of three defeats in Dubai this year. First-time hood replaces visors.
ABDX BRONZE ANGEL
Doncaster CD winner on second turf start in 2012 before Britannia third at Royal Ascot (good to soft) under Hayley Turner and beat a huge field for the Cambridgeshire (9f good) that autumn.
Group-3 and Cambridgeshire flops in 2013 off highest mark but now back to within a pound of winning rating. Stable had a winner on Wednesday and is 3-7 (43%) on AW this year.
First-time blinkered and winning rider Hayley back in the saddle. Stable selected of three entries over Boom And Bust and Bronze Appeal. Winning turf form on good ground.
ACDEX ONE WORD MORE
Soft-surface winner as a juvenile, and – after failed Group-race career – was ‘the moral’ at Doncaster (7f GS) in the autumn, beaten only half a length giving 2lb to subsequent 103-rated. Races off 97 for early-bird yard.
ACDE JACKS REVENGE
Winner on firmish ground up to 1m 2f, and successful over a mile at Newmarket on the soft. Placed in big-field handicaps at Goodwood (twice) and York and highest mark now.
ACDX UNSINKABLE
Very lightly raced; won first time in 2012 on heavy and Listed third starting out last Spring. A long-way last in Ladbrokes Handicap at Lingfield on first day of this month and class-5 wins only (albeit one at Doncaster) as a two-year-old.
But trainer is the shrewdest man since Edison patented electricity and some will back him blind. Unsinkable wears a first-time hood.
ACEX GABRIAL’S KAKA
Another from early yard, contested Epsom Derby Trial and Chester’s Dee Stakes last Spring but only steady improvement with just the one small-field success, and, when second in class 2 at York in the autumn, noticeably flashed his tail.
No show off higher mark but needed the run at Lingfield in February and has done well on good, good to soft.
ADEX CONSIGN
Visored since last June (because ‘bone idle though not ungenuine,’ says his trainer). Stayed on strongly at Newmarket, (third, 1m good) and won at Ascot (7f soft). No show off higher mark but needed the run at Lingfield in February.
AE BALTY BOYS
Seems to prefer 7f and a turning track. Not won off current mark and success only in class 4 and 5 on good ground. Stable not impacting on the handicaps as it used to.
AX WHISPERING WARRIOR
Winner from 8-10f, class 4 on turf but class-2 Lincoln Trial winner at Wolverhampton, earning the penalty that gets him into this race. Rest of his profile fails on the stats but has won with give in the ground.
BCDX SWEET LIGHTNING
Won the Lincoln in 2011 off 6lb higher but nine now. However, second in Group-3 since, won first time last season and down a stone since April last year; loves big fields and has won on good and heavy.
BCD LEVITATE
Up 16lb for winning last year’s Lincoln and 8lb higher for another Doncaster success (7f soft) in November. Beat the 2012 Lincoln winner, Brae Hill, in September (Ayr, 1m GS) but 19lb worse off with that one now and 22lb on the wrong side of the third horse home, Robert The Painter.
BCDX TULLIUS
Winner of big-field 1m 1f at Newmarket first time up last season (GS), then won three times over a mile up to Group-3 level and beaten in photo by 2010 Lincoln winner, Penitent, in November (1m, Listed, soft).
Up 17lb in 2013 all told, and now a six-year-old, though ridden first time on Saturday by apprentice find, Oisin Murphy, and stable in tremendous form on AW with nine winners since March 14.
BCD MEZZOTINT
Has raced only on a sound surface, won only at 6f and 7f, and on highest mark. On the plus side, he won at Doncaster last May and was narrowly beaten in this class at Newmarket in September.
BD TRES CORONAS
Soared 20lb last year, despite winning only at Chester (10f, good to soft). Third in John Smith’s at York and in Cambridgeshire (9f GF). Highest mark now and only one winner of the Lincoln older than six since 1997.
BDEX CAPTAIN CAT
Trainer states ‘non-runner’ on soft ground.
BDEX CHOOKIE ROYALE
Plenty of money for this one despite the big weight, which includes penalty for latest Listed win in Ladbrokes Lady Wulfruna Stakes at Wolverhampton.
Ultraconsistent on AW but 31lb higher than for sole win (7f firm) on turf since Doncaster (7f good) in November 2012.
CDEX OFF ART
Landed a hat-trick last Spring for stable in superb form in handicaps on the Flat sustained in NH season with big-race success, including at Cheltenham recently.
Very lightly raced because immature as a juvenile. Has scored at Doncaster (7f GS) and shows ‘a desirable will to win’, quote unquote Racing Post online form. A big horse so, though he’s won on firm, would prefer some cut.
CDX BURANO
Five-race campaign in Dubai, yielding a third over 10f, and this entire’s sole success came there over a mile in early 2012. Seconds at Doncaster and Newmarket.
C SPA’S DANCER
Prefers a right-handed track: Sandown winner three times on soft and good to soft (twice). Placed at Goodwood and The Curragh, which are also clockwise courses.
D OCEAN TEMPEST
Hat-trick winner last backend, two of them at Chester and loves a turning track; 7lb higher now but another fit from five-race stint in Dubai. Would enjoy some rain.
DAQMAN’S BETS TODAY
BET 2pts win SILVER VOGUE (2.10 Newcastle)
BET 12pts win THE BEST DOCTOR (3.00 Lingfield)
BET 12pts win (nap) FOUNDATION MAN (3.55 Wetherby)
BET 2pts win and place LANGLEY VALE (4.05 Lingfield)
BET 3.5pts win LOOKING ON (4.30 Wetherby)
BET 6.5pts win W SIX TIMES (5.25 Newcastle)
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TODAY: LINCOLN HANDICAP
TODAY: DUBAI: WORLD CUP
TOMORROW: GUINEAS TRIALS
NEXT WEEK: GRAND NATIONAL ABC
NEXT WEEK: PROFESSIONAL BETS
NEXT WEEK: BETDAQ VALUE AT AINTREE EVERY DAY
YOU READ DAQMAN’S LINCOLN GUIDE: NOW HERE’S ONE WORD MORE
1.30 Doncaster (Brocklesby) The Press will tell that you could have had a dozen winners a year (in fact, 10 and 14 in the last two seasons) from following the Brocklesby horses but what they don’t tell you is that you would have had 114 losing bets, waiting for them to win.
Bill Turner (Paddy Again) has recent form-figures in this of 10102141, using 3lb claimers for all but last year’s winner, when Ryan While was allowed 7lb – he claims 3lb today – and, in that time, whether on Town Moor or not, the winner has been drawn 10 (twice), 13, 14 and 19 in big fields.
Duqesna Penguin (25.0 on BETDAQ), by the precocious Winker Watson and related to top sprinters, is where my pin landed.
2.05 Doncaster Mile Punters on Sweet Lightning or Robert The Painter in the Lincoln will be looking to their stablemate Custom Cut to put a spring in their step but he needed two runs last March before getting off the mark in April.
The same applies to Guest Of Honour, and Graphic is a summer-autumn winner, whereas Fencing won a Listed like this one first time last season.
He then failed to make any impression in Group company and John Gosden must be keen to fly his kite early again. The race is a breeze for a horse of his class and he will have been ‘got up’ for it amid fears that, when the big guns are rolled out, they will blow him away again.
2.40 Doncaster (Cammidge Trophy) Though older horses can win sprints, they need winding up, and I wouldn’t want to be on previous winners of this, Jimmy Styles and Inxile, now aged 10 and 9. Captain Ramius has won all his races from July onwards and Mass Rally has always needed at least one run back.
Jimmy Styles has the best early-bird form but his yard is 0-11 this year on AW. His stablemate, Es Que Love, has had all his success in April-May but has changed stables, which may, or may not, help his cause (will Clive Cox give him 21 starts as Mark Johnston did last year?)
Class animals in this are Jack Dexter and Maureen. Jack won the race last year and yet managed second in the big sprint on Champions Day at Ascot in the autumn. Still only five, he’s a really big noise now after nearly a stone improvement last year.
But you’d ‘expect’ Maureen today (6.6 on BETDAQ). She’s another who wins first time (two years running, including the Fred Darling), then fails to mix it with the best though you can hardly call a couple of lengths off the winner in the Guineas and fourth in the Coronation Stakes ‘failure.’
Covered in black type, I thought she’d go to Paddocks but Team Hannon reckon she can hack it in sprints and she certainly seems a bet to do so, getting all the allowances, most significantly 10lb from Jack Dexter. That’s three or four lengths start.
2.55 Kempton (Rosebery Handicap) They don’t want Grendisar this morning (out to 9.2) and I can’t have Bishops Castle with Brian Ellison in poor form this year. The horse has won only a maiden and raced no higher than class 4 so far, though the gelding op might help.
Vital Evidence, Sir Michael Stoute’s first runner in England this year before Dank in Dubai, scored first time last season.
Salutation (13.5 on BETDAQ this morning), a winner and placed five times in class 2, is from a yard that’s in gear, with current form figures of 111423. Rebellious Guest is back to his level after finding the Winter Derby beyond him but the market suggests he’s had enough for now.
3.15 Doncaster Spring Mile The result by stall in this has been confirmed in the Lincoln on good ground (three years) since the reopening of Doncaster, but when the ground rides soft – as in the three other years out of the six– the returns twice show a complete reversal of the draw result.
All we can say is that, since the return to Town Moor, stalls 12 to 19 won four Spring Miles and three Lincolns. Four-year-olds have won six from seven of this consolation leg and only one winner of the six has carried less than 9st 7lb.
That makes Gworn (4-9-8) a stand-out, and Ed Dunlop has had one runner, one winner, winner this week and may be lining up an early start: 9.6 on BETDAQ, as I write.
3.50 Doncaster (LINCOLN HANDICAP) See Archive yesterday for ABC Guide.
I’ve been through the Lincoln in detail in the ABC Guide. But allow me One Word More. What do these Lincoln runners have in common? Stream of Gold (2005), Kings Majesty (2006), Smokey Oakey (2008), Expresso Star (2009), Penitent (2010), Fremont and Gunner Lindley (2011), Fury (2012) and Strictly Silver (2013).
The answer is they are rare in the race: all four-year-olds at 10-1 or less (in fact, 3-1, 100-30, 5-1, 13-2, 8-1 four times and 10-1 at SP) and they finished: 171110038.
That’s a 44% strike rate, four winners from nine runners, and just before them were Pablo (2003, won 5-1) and Babodana (won 2004) both also four-year-olds.
Yes, Babodana started 20-1 but the Newmarket Listed winner, a front-runner, perfectly drawn on the rail, was priced up by me in my newspaper at ‘between 8-1 and 10-1’. I thought the bookies were mad to go twenties. I napped it.
The returns for this rare group might have been even better but Kings Majesty was drawn 27 when the first two came home from 9 and 7 in 2006, and Fury finished third from stall 9 when the first two ran out of gates 12 and 21 two years ago.
Pablo (six starts), Babodana (11), Stream Of Gold (only 4), Very Wise (15), Smokey Oakey (16) and Penitent (6) also had in common very light careers up to that point.
If the handicapper is right, he should see 18 runners finish in line today but we know they won’t and he knows they won’t for this reason: he cannot properly rate and quantify young horses and those with limited experience, what we call ‘unexposed.’
Step forward the four-year-olds again: One Word More (12 starts), Gabrial’s Kaka (11), Unsinkable (5), Consign (14), Off Art (4). Of the five-year-olds, Whispering Warrior (13) is also comparatively lightly raced.
And the offers on BETDAQ this morning? 8.6 Gabrial’s Kaka, 9.0 Off Art, 12.0 One Word More, 14.5 Consign, 26.0 Unsinkable.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I reject Gabrial’s Kaka on the grounds that he’s so far been kept to a sound surface – indeed, won only on good and firm ground – and his form figures above class 3 last season were 30002. Should improve but needs to.
There’s not a penny piece for Unsinkable, and Whispering Warrior is so far only a class-4 animal on turf. I shall take the 9.0 Off Art and 12.0 One Word More, both winners with cut in the ground, both lightly raced and ‘could be anything’ for teams with a long history of handicap killings.
Despite his weight, I think the class horse is Tullius, from a yard in scorching form; must get involved with apprentice find of 2013, Oisin Murphy, in the saddle.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: One Word More 1, Off Art 2, Tullius 3.
DAQMAN THE MAGICIAN BANKS ON BALLYDOYLE STAR IN DUBAI
1.10 Meydan (Godolphin Mile) Those that think Glory Awaits (Jamie Spencer) is a prophetic name should reflect that the Guineas runner-up hasn’t won a race since his maiden in 2012 and was nearly 12 lengths off Soft Falling Rain at Newmarket in September.
Last year’s winner under Paul Hanagan from stall 13, Soft Falling Rain is in gate 5 now with the threeparts of a length runner-up, Haatheq (Dane O’Neill), 5lb better off and ‘stealing’ stall 13, which also won it in 2010.
Shuruq won the trial for this race, beating Variety Club (aged six) and Capital Attraction (seven) – Gabrial, Eastern Rules and Haatheq behind – and the four-year-old is the likely improver over them.
1.45 Meydan (Dubai Gold Cup) Fast ground will suit Ballydoyle’s Curragh Cup winner Ernest Hemingway, who should take care of his Irish compatriots.
Like the David Simcock raider, Moment In Time, Certerach (3rd), Simenon and Saddlers Rock were all behind Cavalryman – last year’s winner of this – in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy (1m 6f) on the first day of the month.
Now We Can has ground to make up on Ed Dunlop’s Joshua Tree (Canadian International), though his entry in the Grade-1 Tenno Sho (2m) suggests a stayer’s programme this season.
Now We Can looked massive at 16.0 last night and offers were trimmed to 12.0 this morning. He and Ernest Hemingway (7.8) could oust Cavalryman from his Gold Cup chair now that he’s eight.
2.25 Meydan (UAE Derby) They have four-year-olds in this Dubai Derby but – if in form – Ballydoyle usually saves the purists a heart attack, winning the last two with top second-season colts, Daddy Long Legs and Lines Of Battle.
Giovanni Boldini could be another one. He’s shown speed enough for the knockers to say he won’t stay but O’Brien has him in the Irish and French Derbys and he tends to know better!
But there could be a ‘monster’ in this. UAE Guineas (Asmar fifth) and Caulfield Guineas winner, Long John, is a powerhouse. Only keenness has prevented his being unbeaten to date.
3.03 Meydan (Sprint) Sole Power (Edward Lynam for Ireland) beat Shea Shea at Royal Ascot but, like Medicean Man, followed him home twice in the big March sprints at Meydan a year ago.
He came back in the same form for the first of them three weeks ago with Ahtoug, Dux Scholar, Sole Power and Catcall behind, though all bar Sole Power had prepped for the race.
Maybe front-runner Amber Sky will topple Shea Shea (stall 12) where all others have failed. The Hong Kong champion, only five, has grown into a massive ball of muscle and his trainer has run one, won one, on this Dubai track.
3.41 Meydan (Golden Shaheen) Rich Tapestry is the one out in the 12 stall here, whereas last year’s winner, Reynaldothewizard, has the same gate again in 5, with Sterling City – a better sprinter in Hong Kong than Rich Tapestry – adjacent in 4.
However, another difference is that Sterling City has won only on turf, whereas Rich Tapestry is four from four on a synthetic surface and won his prep on today’s Tapeta, beating ‘Reynaldo’.
Very hard to call one of the three, so I will settle for a bit on Edward Lynam’s raider, Balmont Mast (Ryan Moore), 13.5 on BETDAQ. That’s ‘wrong’ for last year’s quarter-length (‘just failed’) runner-up, a closing g fifth at the end of Rich Tapestry’s recent trial.
4.39 Meydan (Dubai Duty Free) Vercingetorix, whose name means superior, once defeated Julius Caesar (but only once). The eponymous undefeated racehorse stormed home in the prep for this, yet is twice the price in BETDAQ offers ()8.4) than English raiders The Fugue and Dank – both with the sex allowance to help – and the Japanese champion Just A Way.
Is it far enough for The Fugue, an Oaks and Champion Stakes winner? Can Dank step up from fillies-and-mares-only races, albeit one of them the Breeders Cup? Will Just A Way handle the Dubai track?
5.15 Meydan (Sheema Classic) Irish 2,000 Guineas winner, Magician, who beat The Fugue in the Breeders Cup, can outgun the Japan Cup one-two, Gentildonna and Denim And Ruby.
I have opposed (two lays out of two) Cirrus Des Aigles as he’s got older. He won this Sheema Classic in 2012 but has had to drop down from Group 1 level to score since on the soft in France. Lay again.
6.05 Meydan (Dubai World Cup) An anti-climax; no way has it the thrills of the sprints or the clash of top quality international tackle in the Shaheen and the Duty Free, and favourites have a poor recent record.
The stats say African Story (he’s seven and never won a Group/Grade 1) and last year’s runner-up Red Cadeaux (he’s eight): surely not! The top four are at a serious disadvantage (no winner drawn under five on Tapeta, only one before that ever on dirt). On the other hand, Ruler Of The World (Aidan O’Brien) and Mukhadram (William Haggas) are out wide.
The 5, 6, 7, 8 stalls (four out of five) are the ideal. Hillstar (in 7) has some work to do to catch Ruler Of The World on Champion Stakes form but Military Attack (in gate 8), horse of the year in Hingkong and the Singapore Gold Cup winner, has a devastating finish on him.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
DAQMAN ON LINCOLN DAY (staked to win 30 points)
BET 1.25pts win and place DUQUESA PENGUIN (1.30 Doncaster)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) FENCING (2.05 Doncaster)
BET 5.3pts win MAUREEN and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) JACK DEXTER (2.40 Doncaster)
BET 5.7pts win VITAL EVIDENCE and 2.4pts win SALUTATION (2.55 Kempton)
BET 3.4pts win GWORN (3.15 Doncaster)
BET 3.75pts win OFF ART and 2.7pts win ONE WORD MORE (3.50 Doncaster)
DAQMAN IN DUBAI (staked to win 20 points)
BET 5.7pst win SHURUQ (1.10 Meydan)
BET 3pts win ERNEST HEMINGWAY and 1.8pts win NOW WE CAN (1.45 Meydan)
BET 8.3pts win LONG JOHN and 3pts win (stakes saver) GIOVANNI BOLDINI (2.15 Meydan)
BET 6.25pts win AMBER SKY and 4pts win (stakes saver) SHEA SHEA (3.30 Meydan)
BET 1.6pts win BALMONT MAST (3.41 Meydan)
BET 2.7pts win VERCINGETORIX (4.39 Dubai)
LAY 10pts CIRRUS DES AIGLES and BANKER: BET 20pts win MAGICIAN (5.17 Meydan)
BET 3.7pts win MILITARY ATTACK and 0.7pts win (stakes saver) RULER OF THE WORLD (6.05 Meydan)
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LEOPARDSTOWN: BALLYDOYLE IN FRONT OF GOAL TODAY: CAN’T SCORE HOME OR AWAY
What’s happened to yer man? Aidan O’Brien’s five-strong contingent for today’s Classic trials is being saddled at Leopardstown on the back of Ballydoyle form-figures for the start of the Flat of: 0004004000.
That includes, of course, failure of his six-star attack on Meydan, all floperoos, notably Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World’s 16-lengths 13th of 16 in the Dubai World Cup.
In fact, not many turf horses can act on the surface, nor even dirt horses (the Americans stayed away in droves) and the question from Meydan should be: Is this the end of Tapeta?
However, both Ballydoyle’s Magician and Ernest Hemingway were also well beaten, and they were running on turf, so punters today are more concerned with the query hanging over the O’Brien string’s form.
It wouldn’t be like the unflappable Aidan to do a Mourinho (one among the opposition is Go For Goal) but is his Indian Maharaja a false favourite for the 2,000 Guineas Trial? Or should we pile in? As ever in racing, more questions than answers.
3.10 Leopardstown (2,000 Guineas Trial) A French Derby runner-up and Irish Guineas’ third and fourth are the best we’ve had from the winners of this in the last decade, two of them trained by Dermot Weld.
Weld won the Irish Lincolnshire and the Group-3 Park Express Stakes on the opening day of the Flat at The Curragh last Sunday, when Go For Goal was second.
With the ground to his liking and blinkered first time, he was the ‘moral’ beaten only a length, giving 8lb to the winner of the day’s featured handicap.
Go For Goal now has to step up to Listed level and prove that the blinkers can do the trick again. Not very likely at this level in normal circumstances but at least he likes the ground and his stable is in form.
Aidan O’Brien for one didn’t get a look-in at the Curragh, with two hot favourites beaten in two days, and that Meydan whitewash of his big guns in Dubai yesterday?
As ever, yer man says that Indian Maharaja and Buonarotti are ‘ready to start off.’ But I shall have my pound on the Aga Khan’s Ebanoran (around 6.0 on BETDAQ this morning), entered in both Guineas and both Derbys and expected to like the ground.
3.45 Leopardstown (1,000 Guineas Trial) Much better results recently in this than the colts have given us from there trial: both Virginia Waters (2005) and Homecoming Queen (2012) went on to take the Newmarket 1,000.
Both were trained by Aidan O’Brien, who has won this nine times since 1997, and seems to have his top two Guineas hopes, Marvellous and Bracelet, on show in the same race here.
But all the money this morning was for Dermot Weld’s Balansiya. I can’t take a short price about anything in these trials but, since she is also owned by the Aga Khan, I shall use her as a stakes saver for Ebanoran. Have the Aga’s men cooked up a big double?
DONCASTER: GATEWOOD BANKER AS A GROUP HORSE IN A RACE OF HANDICAPPERS
Can I have a sick note, please? When at school on a big-race day, my dad, who was a punter, would provide me the necessary out, so I could stay home and watch my ‘half a dollar’ pocket-money run. That’s when I wasn’t running a ‘book’ in the school library.
I need a sickie for another reason at Donny today, with Pricewise dragging me into a 20-runner sprint. We could each put up a horse nine times and still lose, though the tenth time, mathematically, we ought to win it!
3.20 Doncaster I can clutch at straws and say that the two sprints yesterday were won from stalls 2 and 3, though, in fact, most of the racing was down the middle of the course.
I could say that only one horse over the age of five has won this race in the decade. That would be more sensible, since we can expect younger horses to improve.
And I could check out the trainers in form and come up with Tom Dascombe (Chosen Character), Tony Carroll (Caspian Prince), Kevin Ryan (Chooseday) and George Baker (Joey’s Destiny).
SP returns since 2004 of 40-1, 33-1, 16-1 (twice) and 14-1 suggest that, as I feared, we are into pinstickers’ race. But form, some kind of form – the best we can dig up – is the only way to bet.
Joey’s Destiny (10.0) has to be one of mine. He was thought of as a Royal Ascot juvenile only to fracture his tibia but he returned with back-to-back wins, goes well fresh and needs it soft. Looks nicely in.
Sir Reginald (9.8) is a soft-ground Doncaster winner who has had a run back this year and is just preferred to Kimberella, switched to sprint-expert David Nicholls.
3.55 Doncaster Shield This would be prizemoney better spent, with only five runners now for the fourth consecutive year. Gatewood is a Group horse in a race of handicappers but was a shade of odds against on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win EBANORAN (3.10 Leopardstown) and 3pts win (stakes saver) BALANSIYA (3.45 Leopardstown)
BET 2.2pts win on each JOEYS DESTINY and SIR REGINALD (3.20 Doncaster)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (NAP) GATEWOOD (3.55 Doncaster)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: MARVELLOUS (3.45 Leopardstown)
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THE SECRET OF THE PROFESSIONALS: GET A DOUBLE BONUS EVERY TIME YOU BET
What do you fancy for the National? Do you know what price it should be? If you want to win money on horse races, those two questions should be inextricably linked. Unless you shop for value, you limit your chances. First you have to blow away the myths.
MYTH 1: You must show a level-stakes profit. This is a wise enough adage, for reasons I will explain, but there’s something missing from the original.
It’s like the one that goes ‘feed a cold and starve a fever.’ That should read: ‘If you feed a cold, you will have to starve a fever.’
The one about level stakes should read: A quick evaluation of a series of tips is whether or not it shows a level-stakes profit over a period of time.
That contains the vital phrase ‘over a period of time,’ to which all your betting should be aimed. But it also embraces such futility as getting 20 tips, of which 19 lose and one flukes it at 20-1.
A pound on each produces a level-stakes profit all right, but not much of a tipster, was he? You’d feel the same way if he gave 10 winners out of 20 when all the winners were 2-1 on. At £10 level stake, you lose £50 over the series of 20.
MYTH 2: So even the percentage of winners doesn’t matter if the prices are wrong and the stakes remain the same. Myth 2 (the better the percentage of winners, the more you win) is not always representative.
MYTH 3: But it’s equally wrong to complain about odds-on bets if those odds are actually better than they should be. Myth 3 (never bet at odds ‘on’) restricts you all the time to the area of the market where the layer ‘against’ has the advantage, the onus is not ‘on’ him, but on you.
But the backers’ answer must be the same: if you think a horse is a 2-1 on chance and you can get 4-5, grab it! Value is what value does to your wallet in the long term. In your 20-horse series, that difference could boost your earnings 30%.
MYTH 4: But, you say, when you read about telephone tipsters in the Press, they assert: ‘To level stakes’ and they stress ‘no odds on.’
That’s partly because the newspaper – and the tipster – wants a quick and easy way to show the reader he is genuine, and partly because both know the reader is gullible to the myths.
So, clever clogs Daqman, how can I make money betting? Answer: I can’t tell any one man: he has to work hard at it and find his own way of finding winners with, hopefully, my contributions some help to him.
But I can tell him a simple way to explode the myths, get on the right side and bet so that, if he does make money, he will make far, far more and will double his value.
Most of all, he will feel confident he’s doing the right thing. Fitness and confidence give you a massive start on other punters. And don’t forget that, on BETDAQ, you are trying to beat the other punters, not some anonymous bookie.
You are halfway there with BETDAQ, because of this exchange in a punter-friendly arena, whereas bookmakers build in a percentage against you, so you become a lonely gladiator against the lions.
You could get a total percentage probability of 107% for the Spring Mile in the BETDAQ orange on Saturday morning but the bookies Total SP was 129%, in effect nearly a third of your stake pinched from you.
So how else do you know value? What’s the real difference between 20-1 and odds on? It looks obvious. But what staking plan should you use, if level stakes are not the answer?
RULE 1: Firstly, you must know you are in a value area, like the BETDAQ orange. Discard a race if it’s hard to find the winner and the odds add up to a big percentage take-out against you.
RULE 2: You must, must know what price you want. Would you go shopping for a car if you didn’t know roughly the price of your model? Would you go to the first garage you saw and spend £10k when the next town has a showroom with an £8k offer?
Check out the car (horse) and make sure there is plenty under the bonnet, the engine is well prepared and maintained (by the trainer), can cruise and accelerate and maintain, or increase, its speed at a vital time.
Compare it with similar vehicles (horses carrying your cash!) and decide: 2-1 this is best, 5-1 that one is about right, 10-1 bar two. By all means decide on your usual investment (say you stake to win £100).
RULE 3 (THE SECRET): Now here’s the ‘double value’ trick. If you usually bet to win £100 and decide that Fair Dinkum is in the right ‘book’ of offers, has the right credentials and is, in your mind, a 2-1 chance, back it at any price better than 2-1.
RULE 4 (DOUBLE BONUS): Second part of the trick. Back it at YOUR price, not the layer’s offer or the bookie’s fixed odds. That means:
If you think Fair Dinkum is 2-1 and you want to back it to win £100 (i.e. £50 stake) and the offer is 4.0 or 3-1, KEEP your original stake.
Do NOT reduce your stake to £33 and target £100, back it at 3-1 with the same stake you would have placed at 2-1. Instead of reducing to 3 x 33 to win 100, bet ‘as you were’ 3 x 50 and win 150.
You have the double bonus – or should that read ‘treble bonus’ – of being in the right race, backing at a value price and betting the overs to acquire an extra reward.
At that rate alone, if your price was right, your long-term returns could be 50% better. You are out of the Volvo and sitting in the Merc, my friend!
YOUR BETTING RECORDS SHOULD LOOK LIKE THIS
KEY: PW – price wanted; W100 –stake wanted to win 100; BO – BETDAQ value offer; BET – retained stake; RES – result; WIN – winnings; BN – bonus
DAQMAN’S BETS
(For transparency, selections are staked to win 20 points at BETDAQ offers at the time they were made. The target may be raised to 30 points or more at major meetings and will include double-bonus bets from Thursday)
BET 6.25pts win TONVADOSA (2.40 Hexham)
BET 2pts win PEMBROKE PRIDE (3.30 Kempton)
BET 4.5pts win BALLYVONEEN (3.50 Plumpton)
BET 1.5pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) BACK ON BAILEYS (4.00 Kempton)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) DUTIFUL SON (4.30 Kempton)
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EASY ABC GUIDE TO THE GRAND NATIONAL
ABCDEXS Teaforthree
Given a big chance by the handicapper, with his rating on 153 but his Saturday mark 149, though needs to conserve his energy a bit better this time around.
Third last year, 2lb higher, Nick Scholfield kicked on after two out but found it a long, long road to the Aintree winning post, despite the stamina revealed by his 4m NH Chase win and Welsh Grand National third.
ABCDEX Balthazar King
Rated almost a stone better horse than in the National last year (set early pace off 146, faded second circuit). Four wins in a row, including three cross-countrys, has put his mark up to 159.
Let off with only 150 on Saturday, banks racing has made a man of him and ‘all he wants to do is win,’ say connections. Golden chance now if he can save most of his exuberance for the finish, and if the ground is no worse than good to soft.
ABCDEX* Across The Bay
Amberleigh House and Ballabriggs have followed triple winner Red Rum from Team McCain, the fairytale National stable which first operated from behind a Southport garage.
Across The Bay (14th) led for a long way last year off 2lb higher and has also finished eighth in the Becher Chase. Aids combo of tongue-tie and blinkers (or cheekpieces) very unlikely on the winner. L’Escargot (1975) was the only great National hero to wear the blinds.
ABCEXS Mr Moonshine
Sue Smith bids for back-to-back National winners, not achieved since Ginger McCain (1973-4) and before that Fred Winter (1963-4). Pulled up last year and hard to see him getting involved so high in the handicap, though clearly has a hatful of stats credentials.
ABCEXS Walk On
Top-class runner-up in Power and December gold cups at Cheltenham, then far and away the moral winner of the Topham over the National fences, beaten less than a length giving a stone to subsequent Hennessy hero, Triolo d’Alene. Go close if he stays.
ABCE Colbert Station
The handicapper was impressed with his National effort last year when, starting a well-backed 12-1, he travelled smoothly, only to be caught out by the Chair.
Third in the Troytown at the backend of last year but poor form since and, though Ted Walsh is happy with him, evidence of a small stable’s form has to be taken on trust.
ABCS* Wayward Prince
Prolific novice-chaser, runner-up to Silviniaco Conti in the Charlie Hall Chase in 2012. Second same race last November and tongue-tie a concern.
ABCXS Hunt Ball
Made his mark at 2012 Cheltenham festival but has struggled in mostly Graded races since. Placed at 3m 2f but generally kept to shorter distances.
ABCX Long Run
He’s 22lb lower than when third in the 2012 Gold Cup, having won it a year earlier and third again a year later. Yet he’s still only nine. Handicap blot if he’s up to the task.
Those who thought that he wasn’t big enough to win at Cheltenham should have been made to sit and count his £1,100,000 winnings. Can he, literally, scale even bigger heights on Saturday?
ABCX Quito De La Roque
Brilliant novice but a ‘nearly horse’ since, fifth Punchestown Grand National Trial and only one win since 2011.
ACDEX Pineau De Re
Goes to Liverpool in good form after a narrow defeat over 3m at Cheltenham but, though that was a hurdles race, the handicapper put his chase rating up 3lb for it and he’s now 18lb higher than his runaway Ulster National win of about a year ago.
ACDXS Hawkes Point
Only a head off Mountainous, the pair just holding Tidal Bay in the Welsh National (heavy) with One In a Milan fourth. Different ground now but finished strongly that day and safe jumper.
ACDX Burton Port
Superb novice career, used himself up as a ‘nearly horse’ at the top level – second in the RSA, second in the Hennessy – and modest form after winning the Aintree Bowl a year ago.
Dropped 21lb since fourth in the 2012 Gold Cup but handicapper has tweaked him up 4lb to 145. Now with Jonjo O’Neill and back to some kind of form this month. Like Long Run, a handicap blot if he’s up to the job.
ACDS Mountainous
The Welsh National winner – from Hawkes Point and Tidal Bay – needs the rain to fall in quantity. He has no experience of Aintree but has never fallen or unseated rider.
ACD Monbeg Dude
Beat Teaforthree in the Welsh Grand National and third in the Haydock Grand National Trial – both on heavy ground – but has scored twice on good, including at Cheltenham.
Hit three fences in a row at Chepstow and won’t be able to take such liberties at Liverpool, albeit there are modifications to the National obstacles.
ACEX* The Package
Second third, and fourth at consecutive Cheltenham festivals. Unseated rider in the 2010 National and just one win since 2009. Wears tongue-tie, hardly a badge of confidence over this lung-busting 4.5miles.
ACE The Rainbow Hunter
Great Yorkshire winner unseated rider in last year’s National and pulled up Sandown Gold Cup.
ACEXS Shakalakaboomboom
Only 18 races in his career, but jumps these big fences well, seventh in the Topham and ninth in last year’s National, travelling in the first two for a long way before tiring approaching the last and fading up that long run-in.
ACEX Chance Du Roy
Runner-up in the Topham but topped that as winner of the Becher Chase, again over these fences, in December: better off now with the third, Mr Moonshine, and with Across The Bay (eighth). Question mark over his stamina but clearly loves to jump Liverpool.
ACX Golan Way
Back to form hunter-chasing, and has bags of stamina but looks some way short on class for this.
ADXS* Raz De Maree
Won Munster and Cork Grand Nationals and type to jump these fences but blinkers would be a worry.
ACEXS Rose Of The Moon
Grey improver. Used to wear tongue-tie but had breathing op, showing the benefit with easy win at Wetherby in January. This is very much harder. A sound surface would help.
ACD Alvarado
Won the Murphy it Cheltenham in November on a sound surface. Refused twice and has unusual jumping style.
ACE Last Time d’Albain
Third in Topham behind Triolo d’Alene and Walk On, and previously third to Colbert Station, but seems to want mud.
ACDEXS* Lost Glory
A good-ground horse looking to bounce back to his glory days of 2012. With the right yard to do so but tongue-tie a worry and pulled up last year.
ACX One In A Milan
Fourth to Mountainous and Co in the Welsh Grand National but his success has all come on heavy going.
AC Battle Group
A Spring horse who won the John Smith’s Chase at Aintree last April. High in the weights now.
ACX Prince De Beauchene
Has cost ante-post punters a packet, as favourite two years in a row without getting a run, because of training setbacks.
Willie Mullins is more than hopeful it will be third time lucky but has not scored since 2012 and a long way adrift of Triolo d’Alene and Rocky Creek in the Hennessy at Newbury.
AD* Big Shu
Third to Balthazar King in the cross-country at Cheltenham, which he’d won the year before, following up in the La Touche at Punchestown. Wears tongue-tie.
BCDEXS Triolo D’Alene
Seven-year-old winners of the Hennessy have gone on to take gold at Cheltenham – (Denman 2007) and Bobs Worth (2012) – but have not won a Grand National in recent history.
‘Triolo’ was only six when he scored at Newbury and now tries to emulate Golden Miller, who won the National in 1934, though Bogskar took a wartime version in 1940, also aged seven.
BCDEX Tidal Bay
It’s six years since he won his Arkle at Cheltenham but returned to that level and more by taking the 2012 Sandown Gold Cup and the Lexus.
Nimble enough to win a Grade-2 hurdle in November, he was a gallant third in the Welsh Grand National (heavy). Has 3lb more to carry at Liverpool, though it might have been 5lb but for the leniency of the handicapper. The last 13-year-old winner was in 1923.
BCDXS Rocky Creek
Only eight and, though Party Politics (1992) and Bindaree (2002) won at that age, both had had 14 steeplechase outings. Rocky Creek has had just half that.
On the plus side, he’s a natural jumper and was the ‘moral’ in the Hennessy, giving Triolo d’Alene 4lb but beaten less than three lengths. On Saturday, he receives a pound. Big galloping sort.
BX Double Seven
By the same sire as Mountainous and Big Shu, this Munster National winner is now two stone higher than when winning the (Kilbeggan) Midlands National in July, his 145 rating tweaked to 148 by the Liverpool handicapper.
Still only eight, a chance to try the Aintree fences in plenty of time to strengthen for another year. Needs a sound surface.
CXS Buckers Bridge
Thyestes winner last year, ‘falls apart’ with racing, so must be kept fresh. Qualified for the National with third in the Bobbyjo.
CX Twirling Magnet
Lost his way and resorted to a novice chase to score. In rear United House Gold Cup at Ascot and unseated rider at Cheltenham. Tongue-tie offputting.
CDEX Vesper Bell
Loves Punchestown (42132 there) and touted as a National horse in the making but fell when fancied for the Becher Chase in December and modest form since. Has to bounce back.
CDS Lion Na Bearnai
Irish Grand National winner (good to soft) in 2012 but struggled until back to form on the same track in February, though a long last in the Bobbyjo after.
CXS* Our Father
Talking horse after good novice career but Hennessy gamble misplaced; beaten in Haydock Grand National Trial and at Cheltenham since. Tongue-tie is a worry.
CX Vintage Star
Stablemate of Mr Moonshine, ultra-consistent hurdles and chases until pulled up in last year’s RSA, but still only eight and showed improved form, sixth in Welsh Grand National and second Peter Marsh Chase. Live outsider if fall at Cheltenham hasn’t left a mark.
XS Kruzhlinin
Nice stamp of horse, improved to win Champion Chase at Kelso and not disgraced behind The Rainbow Hunter in the Great Yorkshire. But this is really tough for a seven-year-old and I hope he gets round in one piece.
RESERVES
CD Goonyella
After saddle slipped when strongly fancied for Irish National a year ago, beat Vesper Bell (3m 6f) on heavy at the Punchestown Festival.
But, like that rival, has found it hard going since, fifth when favourite for the Troytown and eighth in Welsh Grand National. Only seven and sure to bounce back in time. The more rain the better.
CDXS Swing Bill
Like Tidal Bay, he’s 13. Unlike Tidal Bay, it’s hard to trust him – just the one win from 14 starts since November 2011 – but he loves these big fences, 10th and 12th in the National, 2nd and 5th in the Becher. Put on your ‘will get round’ list.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST BETS
BALTHAZAR KING: 1pt win at 39.0
ROCKY CREEK: 1.1pt win at 28.0, 1pt win 56.0
DAQMAN’S BETS TODAY
BET 6pts win AWARD WINNER (4.40 Newton Abbot)
BET 2.7pts win CASTLE COMBE (4.50 Kempton)
BET 13pts win (nap) CERTAIN FLIGHT (5.10 Newton Abbot)
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DAQMAN LAUNCHES DOUBLE BONUS BET IN THE FOX HUNTERS’
Daqman bets to win 30 points at BETDAQ morning offers. But if he wants 7.0 (requiring 5 points) and he is offered 13.0, he can double the value by sticking to his stake. Instead of reducing his bet to 2.5 points to win 30, he bets the original requirement of 5 points. This is exactly what happens with his first Double Bonus bet in the Fox Hunters’ Chase today…
DOWNLOAD YOUR BETDAQ GRAND NATIONAL SWEEPSTAKE KITCLICK HERE FOR PDF
2.00 Aintree Triumph Hurdle winners (three), and seconds (two) and one third, plus a Supreme Novice runner-up and Fred Winter third, have all gone on from Cheltenham to win this.
Guitar Pete and Calipto (unlucky, ‘saddle broke’), third and fourth in the Triumph this year, today meet the Fred Winter winner, Hawk High, and one fancied for Cheltenham but who swerved the meeting, Activial, conqueror of Commissioned at Kempton earlier.
Calipto easily outpointed Activial in November and, on lines through Clarcam, Orgilgo Bay and Bardari, Activial is about ‘the same horse’ as Broughton, who was well behind Calipto in the Triumph.
Another component of the collateral form is Solar Impulse, further behind Activial at Kempton than behind Hawk High at Cheltenham. Form lines are tenuous but there are so many here, all pointing to Triumph form as the best.
Granted Activial is the fresher horse and could have improved, and that Broughton is wearing a first-time hood, which could transform him, but don’t forget that Guitar Pete, in front of the luckless Calipto in the Triumph, had already beaten the winner, Tiger Roll, at Leopardstown.
VERDICT: The rain has come for Guitar Pete who, though exposed, is still improving, according to the ratings (130-132-142-144) and 8.0 is the race best deal in the BETDAQ orange.
Guitar Pete’s style looks perfect for Aintree. It was thought he would wait for Punchestown but has never been out of the frame on a left-handed track and he and Calipto could fight out the finish, though lightly-raced Activial is a likely improver.
2.30 Aintree Bowl Dynaste won the Mildmay here a year ago, while (1-2-3) First Lieutenant, Menorah and Silviniaco Conti were fighting out the finish of this.
Dynaste was back to form in this year’s Ryanair, after an off day, trailing Gold Cup fourth Silviniaco Conti in the King George. But he should not be favourite in this.
The runner-up in Dynaste’s Mildmay has won just a novice chase since and was only 17-lengths fifth in the Byrne Group Plate and the second in Dynaste’s Ryanair this year had won only a modest race at Leopardstown in nine attempts since November 2012.
VERDICT: First Lieutenant (missed Cheltenham for this) was lucky to catch a nervously ridden Silviniaco Conti in this last year (he’d had that crashing fall in the Gold Cup 20 days earlier) and Dynaste, who can sometimes have an off day, doesn’t have the form to measure up to that of the King George and Gold Cup.
3.05 Aintree Hurdle The New One has scared them all away. Only the sixth and eighth, Ptit Zig and Grumeti, take him on again after his unlucky Champion Hurdle third (horse fell in front of him).
Rock On Ruby at his best would be in at the finish but reverts to hurdles after a chase floperoo at Cheltenham and was 10 lengths adrift of The New One at Kempton in November.
Strictly on the book, not allowing for The New One’s misfortunate at Cheltenham, Diakali wasn’t beaten as far by Jezki in the Hattons Grace as was The New One in the Champion Hurdle.
Diakali beat Ptit Zig seven lengths over today’s trip at Auteuil and more rain is welcome for him. Of the five-year-old potential improvers, he seems to be the one.
VERDICT: Today’s trip suited The New One when he won the Neptune in 2013 and he was charging home in the Champion Hurdle after losing his pitch. I don’t feel like ‘buying money’ on the first day of the meeting, so will put The New One in my Daq Multiples.
Diakali may be best of the rest, particularly with more rain, and I could get five times The New One’s win odds for a place Diakali on BETDAQ this morning. Half stake.
3.40 Aintree (Fox Hunters’ Chase) Amateur riders jumping the National fences! No wonder there have been winners at 50-1 and 100-1 in the last four seasons.
Those with experience of the fences (I mean the horses) are last year’s winner, second and fourth, Tartan Snow, Cool Friend, and Warne, plus Boxer Georg (second in 2011), Cottage Oak, Dead Or Alive, Douglas Julian, Fresh Air And Fun, Island Life and Sizing America.
Warne (forced wide, later bumped) was the unlucky horse in this last year, has recently been third to last month’s Cheltenham Foxhunter winner, Tammys Hill.
But I remember his being trounced out of sight by Mossey Joe over regulation fences in a hunter chase at Killarney last year, and Joe has won twice again since.
Best jumper in the field may be Richards Sundance; in fact, he sometime overjumps ordinary park fences, and may be in his element on this course.
VERDICT: Mossey Joe is a short price this morning and the improving Warne is close up in the betting. But easily the value is Richard’s Sundance, a tremendous jumper who has been switched to hunter chases and saved up for this: 13.0 when he should be half the price.
This is not an ideal race to choose to launch my Double Bonus bet but 13.0 is very big for a reliable jumper in a race which boils down to three or four contenders.
But, in the hope that – as with the National last year – the fences no longer take no prisoners, I’ll bet on a good round for all and particularly for this grand jumper. Only four of the 24 runners fell in this a year ago.
4.15 Aintree (Red Rum Chase) Another unlucky at Cheltenham was today’s morning favourite, Claret Cloak, who was about to win the Grand Annual when he blundered at the second last.
But the ground may have gone against him today. Claret Cloak’s form on good to soft or worse over obstacles is 203002, with four wins on good or firmer. We’ll see nearer the ‘off’ time. Off The Ground also prefers it on top.
Last year’s winner, Oiseau De Nuit, fell in the Grand Annual but has also finished second and sixth in this. Astracad was second in 2012.
The six-year-old improvers Arnaud – missed Cheltenham for this – and Sound Investment should go well. Turn Over Sivola had a long break, including the time Alan King’s stable was shut down, to wait for Spring ground. I don’t think he’s got it today.
VERDICT: This race usually goes to a novice, and that would mean Arnaud, Off The Ground, Claret Cloak, Sound Investment, Turn Over Sivola or Bullet Street
Sound Investment is 15lb higher than when winning at Taunton and Turn Over Sivola is something of a bridesmaid. Claret Cloak looked good until the ground changed, so I now prefer Arnaud, highly regarded and missed Cheltenham for this.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except half stake for the Place Pick and double stake for the bonus bet)
BET 8pts win CALIPTO and 4pts win GUITAR PETE (2.00 Aintree)
LAY 10pts DYNASTE and BET 11pts win (nap) SILVINIACO CONTI (2.30 Aintree)
PLACE PICK: BET 1pt win and 7pts place DIAKALI (3.05 Aintree)
DOUBLE-BONUS BET (staked as if 7.0): 5pts win and place RICHARD’S SUNDANCE at 13.0 (3.40 Aintree)
BET 5pts win ARNAUD and 1.25pts win (stakes saver) CLARET CLOAK (4.15 Aintree)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Silviniaco Conti (2.30 Aintree) with The New One (3.05 Aintree) and Richards Sundance (3.40 Aintree)
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GIANT OF A BETDAQ DOUBLE-BONUS BET IN THE SEFTON HURDLE
Daqman today priced up Kauto Stone at 11.0, Tahiti Pearl at 16.0 (both 3.40 Aintree) and Giantofaman at 7.0 (in the 4.15). Stakes to win 30 points at those offers would be 3 points, 2 points and five points. This morning he found 35.0 Kauto Stone, 28.0 Tahiti Pearl and 13.5 Giantofaman but keeps his original stakes for a double bonus. Now read on.
DOWNLOAD YOUR BETDAQ GRAND NATIONAL SWEEPSTAKE KITCLICK HERE FOR PDF
2.00 Aintree In the last two years this has gone to Darlan and My Tent Or Yours, both second in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham for Nicky Henderson. Josses Hill would make it a hat-trick.
Sgt Reckless, fourth at Cheltenham, getting behind but storming up the hill, has Tony McCoy to help now but needs the ground to stay on the good side.
He was beaten by Amore Alato on the soft at the turn of the year, and that one was five lengths behind Irving at Kempton, before Irving ran a stinker (found to be coughing) behind Josses Hill in Vautour’s Supreme. So the form completes a circle.
Art Of Payroll beat a 119-rated (Bishopslough) less than three lengths at Leopardstown, so surely does not merit 142 (I think they were trying to lift him into the County Hurdle), though he coasted clear that day and may improve for the better ground over here.
The handicapper could only see his way to a 6lb rise for Baltimore Rock after his Imperial Cup win so he, too, had to miss the County Hurdle – in which he could have landed a £100,000 bonus – and come here officially a stone behind Josses Hill.
VERDICT: This should not present too many difficulties for Josses Hill, who looks nap value at around 3.0 on BETDAQ, as I write. Even if the handicapper is right to rate Art of Payroll on potential, he has to improve again on top of that.
2.30 Aintree (Mildmay Novices’ Chase) On trip alone, RSA hero O’Faolain’s Boy and Cheltenham-handicap winner Holywell deserve to head the market, since the three other fancied horses have no winning form above 22f.
Don Cossack (fell, brought down Many Clouds) was trying 3m for the first time in the RSA which, in effect, is being rerun today.
Many Clouds had been beaten by O’Faolain’s Boy at Ascot in February but giving him weight, so that they came out about ‘the same horse’; in fact, they went to Cheltenham with Many Clouds officially rated a pound higher off 145.
The third horse in that Ascot race, Third Intention, was entitled to a 143 rating, because he was giving weight to the first two.
Third Intention had been 11 lengths off Wonderful Charm last backend before that one gave Oscar Whisky a fright at Cheltenham just before Christmas.
Holywell’s handicap win at Cheltenham followed defeat at Doncaster of Victor Hewgo, earlier second on the same course to shock Arkle winner, Western Warhorse (in first-time hood), with the form taking a knock here yesterday via Uxizandre, who finished in front of Wonderful Charm at Cheltenham.
VERDICT: The Arkle form, which has collateral relevance to this, was quickly let down yesterday and that dents my expectations of Wonderful Charm bouncing back over this extra trip.
The RSA form is open to correction here, too, with Don Cossack and the luckless Many Clouds trying to avenge defeat by O’Faolain’s Boy. Though Don Cossack fell in the RSA, collateral form through the fourth horse, Ballycasey, suggests he would have been third or fourth at best.
I was convinced that Many Clouds would have beaten the O’Faolain’s Boy at Ascot had he not been lured into a duel with Gevrey Chambertin; he was coming back at the winner at the finish. Then came his bad luck at Cheltenham, when he was ignored in the betting.
There’s a limit to the number of permitted excuses but Many Clouds has been ignored again today at 7.2. His Ascot form with O’Faolain’s Boy says that offer is big value. So third time lucky.
3.05 Aintree (Melling Chase) The last two winners of this were doubling up on their Cheltenham Champion Chase triumphs but this year’s is a more modest renewal with Module (Champion 3rd) and Wishfull Thinking (2nd in it in 2012, 5th this year) top rated.
It’s so modest that even a handicapper, Byrne Group Plate winner, Ballynagour, might win it, though it’s never happened in the previous 23 runnings of the race.
A better run from a handicapper today may come from Pepite Rose, who is a massively better horse anti-clockwise, with a 57% win and place record going left-handed.
Toner D’Oudairies is one of the most consistent animals in training, with form figures, still standing, in the last year of 212443111122122 on all sorts of ground.
But he has much the best form going right-handed and I’ll wait for Punchestown. ‘Toner’ (holds Rathlin) and Rolling Aces are about ‘the same horse’ on Down Royal running last backend.
The one that beat ‘Toner’ last time, Days Hotel, is a soft-heavy two-miler (form 11113231) but whose figures beyond 16f are 424 and he faces a livelier surface today.
Boston Bob needs a downpour if he is to bounce back and is 10lb adrift of Module in the ratings, with Rajdhani Express’ in front of him, too, showing his class when third to Dynaste at Cheltenham.
VERDICT: Module (6.0 on BETDAQ as I write) finished well in the Champion Chase, as if today’s trip is within his compass, and is just preferred to Radhjani Express.
Otherwise, it will be interesting to see whether, at 15.0 in the orange this morning, Pepite Rose can continue her improvement (up a stone since December) into a place here.
3.40 Aintree (Topham Chase) This used to commemorate former clerk of the course at Aintree, John Hughes. John was a great help to my career, as well as to my drinking capacity, and I shall continue to commemorate him today in the customary manner: Cheers, John!
Fourth behind last year’s one-two, Triolo D’Alene and Walkon, who have a more important date on Saturday, was Dunowen Point, who is typical of an Aintree horse: jumps for fun off the front end.
Your Busy is another one. He’s won only on a sound surface but is well in with the winner, Rebel Rebellion, on their one-two in the Grand Sefton over CD in December (going soft).
The third horse, You Must Know Me, is also better off, but it’s hard to back a maiden over these fences, and his proximity to the others lets their form down.
Standing Ovation’s success has come over further but he travels well in his races, and is now wearing the new badge of victory these days, a hood.
So, too, Bennys Mist, who jumped round in the Becher Chase in November and would take front rank here in a downpour, though he’s high in the handicap. So is Eastlake.
Double Ross has a lot of weight (only one winner of this above 10st 11lb in the decade) and, though he has breaten Cedre Bleu twice, has it all to do at the revised weights.
Cedre Bleu is not straightforward and I prefer his stablemate Kauto Stone, who drops down to this level after a career which has included 15 Grade 1s.
He likes to be up there and, if he takes to the fences, could stay on in the frame. Lost legend looks dangerous for Jonjo O’Neill off a light weight, though this is not one of Jonjo’s races.
VERDICT: I’m choosing from among Bennys Mist, Dunowen Point, Kauto Stone, Standing Ovation, Tahiti Pearl (consistent, good jumper) and Your Busy.
Assuming the ground is still good(ish), I went for the younger horses and avoided the soft-heavy types: 12.0 Standing Ovation, 28.0 Tahiti Pearl and 35.0 Kauto Stone.
4.15 Aintree (Sefton Novices’ Hurdle) I had penciled in Apache Jack who was third in last month’s Albert Bartlett, and is a full brother to Black Jack Ketchum, who won this Sefton Hurdle in 2006.
But the Apache’s trainer, Dessie Hughes, prefers to run his improver Giantofaman, a big-value 13.5 offer in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each win bet is staked to win 30 points)
BET 14pts win (nap) JOSSES HILL (2.00 Aintree)
BET 4.8pts win MANY CLOUDS (2.30 Aintree)
BET 5pts win MODULE, plus 2pts win and 3pts place PEPITE ROSE (3.05 Aintree)
BET 2.7pts win STANDING OVATION (3.40 Aintree)
DAQMAN’S DOUBLE-BONUS BETS (see panel at top of page)
BET 2pts win and place TAHITI PEARL and 3pts win and place KAUTO STONE (3.40 Aintree)
BET 5pts win GIANTOFAMAN (4.15 Aintree)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double JOSSES HILL (2.00 Aintree) and GIANTOFAMAN (4.15 Aintree)
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IS THIS THE 2014 AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL RESULT?
A Across The Bay B Burton Port C Colbert Station
NO, IT’S A REMINDER TO READ DAQMAN’S ABC GUIDE
Check it out in the Daqman Archive (Tuesday’s column CLICK HERE)
MORE FACTS AND FIGURES at the foot of this column
AT FISHERS CROSS THE BANKER
1.30 Aintree It looked like another old-firm match. Nicky Henderson (Oscar Hoof, Volnay De Thaix) is 112 in this since 2011 and Paul Nicholls (Lac Fontana) 111330 since 2004.
But Wilde Blue Yonder leapfrogged to the front of the BETDAQ market (104% orange) this morning, on the basis of having been only two-and-a-half lengths behind yesterday’s hero Josses Hill in Vautour’s Triumph Hurdle.
I’m never keen on early-season novice form (‘Blue’ won two in November) though his stable was under a cloud when he twice fell (when leading) before Cheltenham.
For me, the risk is not built into a favourite’s price, and this is another half-mile, with the form book telling us that front-runners Monkey Kingdom, Kayf Moss, Splash of Ginge and Volnay De Thaix could make it a very searching test.
Those with stamina in their pedigree are Kayf Moss, Kilcooley, Monkey Kingdom, No No Romeo, Oscar Hoof, Splash of Ginge, Un Ace and Wilde Blue Yonder. I took 7.0 Oscar Hoof for the in-form Barry Geraghty.
2.05 Aintree Sprinter Sacre and Tidal Bay have won this but last year Henry De Bromhead – responsible for Moscow Mannon today – sprang a 28-1 surprise, an even bigger shock as it followed a 1-7 favourite the year before.
Moscow Mannon needs more rain, and Tony McCoy on Arkle third Trifolium must go close – and win – if the ground turns soft-heavy.
But, assuming a good-to-soft surface, Next Sensation should hare off in front and set it up for a match between Balder Success and Hinterland.
Balder Success has been saved for this, and is a winner over further who will appreciate a stiff test. Hinterland was thought worth a crack at the Champion Chase but was badly hampered and unseated.
I could get 4.6 and 4.1 respectively on BETDAQ this morning and the 101% punter-friendly orange persuaded me to dutch.
2.50 Aintree Hats off to Big Buck’s and Solwhit who dominated this for five years. But it’s all change in the stayers’ arena this season, though Thousand Stars, aged 10, doesn’t seem to know it.
He’s been placed three times at the meeting, so why not step him back up in trip and have another go? I think they’ll retire him after this.
Zarkandar beat The New One and Thousand Stars in the Aintree Hurdle at this meeting last year but World Hurdle third At Fishers Cross, who won the 2013 Sefton, is the three-miler here and A P McCoy is back to big-race form.
3.25 Aintree The top half dozen have a tough time in this Listed handicap, with best result in the decade for horses carrying more than 11st a modest 4321003023.
Favourites don’t fare much better but the only horses – Holywell and Wexstern Warhorse -to beat Victor Hewgo this year have scored two at Cheltenham (including the Arkle) and one at Aintree already.
ROCKY CAN LAND THE BIG PUNCH
‘Reynoldstown, Oxo, Mr What, Red Rum, Jay Trump, Anglo, Gay Trip, Party Politics, Corbiere and Bindaree were Grand National heroes all aged eight and four of them carried 10st 13lb or more. Easier fences mean more punch for youth and quality today. So let’s hear it for Rocky!’
4.15 Aintree (The 2014 Liverpool Grand National): When a young star is born in the National, he’s a tough-guy already placed in a major staying race, a massive galloper who jumps better than the proverbial stag.
And the juiciest bone from the stats of the modern race of modified fences must be that quality is centre table for this feast of a race, as revealed by weights carried of those who had helpings of the prizemoney in the last five years.
In 2013 three of the first four home were set between 10st 11lb and 11st 3lb and in 2012 three out of four between 10-10 and 11-6.
A loose canon won last year off 10st 3lb but, before that, Mon Mome started a run of four consecutive 11st-plus scorers. So expect the winner to come from somewhere between number 4 Triolo d’Alene and 18 Prince De Beauchene.
HANDICAPPING: Balthazar King, Teaforthree and Tidal Bay have been given an allowance by the handicapper. Long Run, Quito De La Roque, Wayward Prince, Burton Port and Our Father are down in the weights.
But hit hard by the handicapper are Triolo D’Alene, Mr Moonshine, Pineau De Re and One In A Milan. They must improve again to stand any chance.
BREEDING: Mon Mome (2009) and Neptune Collonges (2012) have blown out of the water the idea that the French cannot produce a National winner, so don’t dismiss Long Run, Quito De La Roque, Prince De Beauchene, Walkon, Last Time D’Albain, Swing Bill, Raz de Maree, Chance Du Roy and Pineau De Re on that score.
Tony McCoy has swerved Colbert Station in favour of Double Seven, though A P made bad decisions at Cheltenham, rejecting big winners Jezki and More Of That.
NEGATIVES: Too old, too young, too little experience. I’ve listed all the horses in those categories in my ABC guide and the Facts below, and I’ve also blackmarked horses that are running in blinkers, visors, cheekpieces and tongue-ties as announcing their weaknesses. Any form of weakness can be ruthlessly exposed in the National.
QUOTES: ‘I’ve blown his National chance,’ said trainer Nicky Henderson after Triolo D’Alene’s Hennessy win.
Jonjo O’Neill describes Burton Port as ‘very disappointing’, prompting a wind operation, which seemed to work on his second in a veterans’ race, when he was ridden aggressively, given a great deal of work to do, to see if the spark was still there.
Even then ‘one swallow’ doesn’t make a Spring Double winner, says yer man. Meanwhile, David Pipe has not lost faith in Our Father: ‘The trip and ground will suit.’
JUMPING: Monbeg Dude gets behind in his races – not ideal for Aintree – and, despite what you read, his jumping doesn’t improve: the form book says, Welsh National January 2013, ‘a string of errors’; Grimthorpe Chase 2014, ‘jumped sloppily early on.’
Tidal Bay is also likely to sit too far out of his ground and it will be an enormous task to catch up at his age with his weight. Long Run can be clumsy, and has a tendency to ‘nod’ or ‘dip’ on landing which can translate into a sprawl as a horse lands over big fences.
FORM: Triolo d’Alene will be beaten a couple of lengths by Rocky Creek if Hennessy form works out, and some 20 lengths by Walkon if the 2013 Topham Chase result (over these National fences) has any bearing. But will Walkon stay?
Rocky Creek ran a good second to The Giant Bolster when needing the race at Cheltenham in January, which would have landed him among the blanket finish for last month’s Gold Cup, and he ran a cracker in the Hennessy.
What he lacks in experience, he makes up for in strength and agility, and trainer Paul Nicholls has turned the corner in this race; now has the best current record, rivaled by Jonjo O’Neill.
I called Jonjo the shrewdest since Edison patented electricity and he’s been given every chance by the handicapper with Burton Port, who was a 20lb better horse in his heyday but that was two years ago.
It’s an almost identical story for Gold Cup winner of 2011, Long Run, who could give Burton Port 10lb in those days. Now he has to give 15lb.
One of the two – or both – could be revived sufficiently to win this but are we really looking for a sticking-plaster horse? Don’t we want that young galloper currently thriving on his racing, robust and raring to go?
Step forward, as my second choice, Balthazar King, who ran well for a long way last year when his stable was out of form. He has tanked around those cross-country banks courses with exuberance and doesn’t know when he’s beaten. He hasn’t been for four races now, and is clearly a better horse than when he faded last year.
The negative? Like Teaforthree last year –if you want an old fashioned National horse, he’s the one – he might do too much too soon.
Both Balthazar King and Big Shu, outstayed by ‘King’ last time out, have made cross-country their career choices so do not come under the heading ‘saved for the National.’ Nor is this true of Rocky Creek, who had to miss the Gold Cup because of ringworm.
If you had to nominate those who appear to have targeted today’s race, it would be Teaforthree and and The Package whose Cheltenham third was double franked yesterday by the first two, Holywell and Ma Filleule.
Of the lightweights, there are two dour stayers Hawkes Point and Mountainous, who fought out the finish of the Welsh National. But both need soft ground and are worse off with gallant Tidal Bay, who was third and could yet belie his age and finish in the first half-dozen.
PLACE LAYS: Burton Port is a small horse that Nicky Henderson decided would not be a National type. You can’t blame connections for trying with another trainer – the best there is, in Jonjo O’Neill – but cheekpieces were called for when, despite a wind op, he made appalling errors in a veterans’ race. Too much sticky tape on him and several others today.
DAQMAN’S NATIONAL TOP TEN TO FINISH
1 Rocky Creek
2 Balthazar King
3 Teaforthree
4 The Package
5 Prince De Beauchene
6 Walkon
7 Triolo D’Alene
8 Long Run
9 Tidal Bay
10 Big Shu
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 5pts win and place OSCAR HOOF (1.30 Aintree)
BET 9.5pts win HINTERLAND, 8pts win BALDER SUCCESS (2.05 Aintree)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) AT FISHERS CROSS (2.50 Aintree)
BET 8.5pts win VICTOR HEWGO (3.25 Aintree)
ANTE-POST: 1.1pt win at 28.0 and 1pt win at 56.0 ROCKY CREEK, 1pt win at 39.0 BALTHAZAR KING, and today BET 2.5pts win and place TEAFORTHREE, 1.5pts win and place THE PACKAGE, 2pts place on each BALTHAZAR KING and ROCKY CREEK, and PLACE LAYS: 5pts each BURTON PORT and MONBEG DUDE (all 4.15 Aintree)
LAY 5pts win and place KATGARY (5.10 Aintree)
MORE GRAND NATIONAL FACTS AND FIGURES
AGE OF THE WINNER: 87 horses under the age of nine have run and failed in the last 10 years. Best record: 10-year-olds 4, nine 3, eleven 2. Last winning eight-year-old: Bindaree (2002); last 12-year-old Amberleigh House (2004); last aged 13, Sergeant Murphy (1923)
WEIGHT: In 2013 three of the first four home were set between 10st 11lb and 11st 3lb; in 2012 three out of four between 10-10 and 11-6. From 2009-11, of 27 front finishers, 22 carried 10-11 to 11-10, some 14 of them with 11st or more, though only two with more than 11st 6lb.
CHASE EXPERIENCE: Seven of the last nine winners had raced between 10 and 14 times over fences, which indicates: Teaforthree, Monbeg Dude, Pineau De Re, Burton Port, Triolo D’Alene, Big Shu and Raz Du Maree.
No horse with fewer than 10 starts has won in 40 years: Vesper Bell and Goonyella (8 chases), Hawkes Point and Rocky Creek (7), Our Father and Rose Of The Moon (6) fall short.
COURSE: Pineau De Re (all his wins), Vesper Bell (all), Vintage Star, and Lion De Bearnai prefer right-handed tracks.
The following have got round in races over the National fences before: Across The Bay, Balthazar King, Chance Du Roy, Last Time D’Albain, Mr Moonshine, Rose Of The Moon, Shakalakaboomboom, Swing Bill, Teaforthree, Triolo D’Alene, Walkon.
FORM: The last 10 winners had all raced since February 18. Seven of the last nine had won or finished second over 3m 4f or been placed in the Irish National or the (English) Hennessy Gold Cup.
GOING: The following need soft-heavy ground: Across The Bay, Hawkes Point, Colbert Station, Last Time D’Albain, Mountainous, One In A Milan, Raz De Maree, Vesper Bell.
TRAINERS: Winners of the Grand National with runners today: Donald McCain and Nigel Twiston-Davies two each, plus one each for Sue Smith, Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe, Gordon Elliott, Martin Brassil, Willie Mullins, Kim Bailey and Ted Walsh.
In the ‘new’ National, since 2009, the following top 12 placings were acheived by eight trainers with runners today:
Paul Nicholls 6-3-9-4-5-WON-12; Jonjo O’Neill 7-WON-3-2; Donald McCain 12-8-WON-6; Dessie Hughes 2-5-5; Martin Pipe 10-2-12-10-6; Nigel Twiston-Davies 5-7-11; Willie Mullins 11-9-6-6-11; Gordon Elliott 8-8-10. Nicky Henderson is 0-33 in his career.
JOCKEYS: In that time, since 2009, top jockeys who reached the first four riding today are: A P McCoy (WON and 3rd), Ryan Mania (WON), Paul Moloney (4, 3, 4, 4, 2); Sam Waley-Cohen (2, 4), and one each in a place Denis O’Regan, Richie McLernon, Nick Scholfield, Barry Geraghty and Katie Walsh.
HEADGEAR: Only two horses have worn blinkers or visors to win the National since 1976. A total of 45 horses from the first six in the last decade wore no headgear or special aids (75%).
There were two seconds, one fourth, a fifth and a sixth wearing tongue-ties; two seconds in cheekpieces; a winner and second in blinkers.
Horses with headgear and aids today are: Long Run, Quito De La Roque, Colbert Station, Walkon, Across The Bay, Wayward Prince, Double Seven, Battle Group, Big Shu, Burton Port, Our Father, Chance Du Roy, The Package, Raz De Maree (first time visors), Twirling Magnet, The Package, Rose Of The Moon, Shakalakaboomboom.
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THE AINTREE LESSON: YOUR DAQ IS 50% BETTER
VALUE: Whatever we learned yesterday about how to get the National winner, where to back it on the day is not in question. Morning BETDAQ offers at Aintree on the five races I covered were as low as 101% which means that punters are getting paid out virtually what they put in (consider it as total odds of 100-101).
Is there really any choice left between BETDAQ and having accounts with a plethora of bookies to try to find some value? Or would you rather wait for the ‘off’ and bet at yesterday’s Grand National Total SP of 151%. That means, in effect, that half your money is lost before it runs (now you are betting 100-151). In 2010 it was 155%.
SMASHING: What a smashing performance from the Mr Nice Guy of the jumps game, Philip Hobbs, to produce Balthazar King to be second and Chance Du Roy to be sixth. And jockey Paul Moloney.. in the first four six years running! That must be some kind of record.
FALSE: How much longer can this silly spectacle of false starts continue? The BHA can expect only derision from the public if the Stewards blame the jockeys. Racing’s authority is still remembered for its sorry handling of the whips controversy.
A starting mechanism is already known. Two tapes 40 yards apart. All horses must pass through the first marker at a walk. If any (like Battle Group) are refusing to line-up, a red light stops the faster approach to the front tape. If all pass through the back tape at a walk, the second one is raised as they move forward at a faster pace. Much better than charging at one tape! It works psychologically.
WISDOM: The course itself was magnificent. Harvey Smith put his finger on it when he said: ‘It’s good. And better this than losing the race altogether by continuing fatalities on the old course.’
NEXT YEAR? Yes, Rocky Creek. But this will have done his handicap mark no good, and I expect to see him trained for the Gold Cup. Balthazar King is surely now an even better banks champion than Spothedifference or Guarde Champetre.
Double Seven ran a cracker. Monbeg Dude’s jumping improved; he will be bang there another year. Alvarado was a stone better horse over the Aintree course.
Keep an eye on Kruzhlinin. He’s with a National-winning stable and still only seven.Â
‘IRISH’ IS A DOUBLE BONUS BET AT FAIRYHOUSE
2.10 Fairyhouse Arvika Liegeonniere likes to do it clockwise: he’s not much good going left-handed. Now back on the right track (literally), and has his ground, too.
2.40 Fairyhouse The ground may have gone against Nearest The Pin, who was the ‘moral’ in the BETDAQ Silver Bowl at Kempton Park three weeks ago, narrowly beaten when giving weight to the winner.
The mud will suit The Way We Were, reunited with Tony McCoy, who was back to his forceful best at Aintree.
But Treat Yourself had The Way We Were well held at Leopardstown in January under Davy Russell and is a tasty 7.6 on BETDAQ as I write.
3.15 Fairyhouse (Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final) Adriana Des Mottes, brought down in he Triumph Hurdle, has most to fear from Layla Joan, who was on a five-timer when she stumbled out of a race at Doncaster on the last day.
3.50 Fairyhouse Fast ground and the Cheltenham hill found out Lieutenant Colonel in the Neptune and he has the same chance here as Renneti on lines to Vautour.
Yet he’s 7.0 to Renneti’s 3.4 on BETDAQ this morning, split by Apache Stronghold who is behind them both, if the Azorian form can be believed. Le Vent d’Antan is a worry.
4.20 Fairyhouse The ground is a concern for the Supreme Novice Hurdle sixth, Wicklow Brave, odds on this morning, so I’m having a dabble win and place on an outsider, Double Irish, who trotted up at Leopardstown before trying 3m at Clonmel: 16.0 is big in a nine-runner race. I think he should be 9.0 and shall back him win and place accordingly.
4.25 Market Rasen Regal D’Estruval will try to make all the running for Dr Richard Newland and Leighton Aspell. Now where have I heard of those two before?
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except 2.10 and 4.20 Fairyhouse)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (NAP)Â ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE (2.10 Fairyhouse)
BET 2pts win and place ALLIED ANSWER (2.15 Market Rasen)
BET 3pts win TREAT YOURSELF (2.40 Fairyhouse)
BET 10pts win on each ADRIANA DES MOTTES and LAYLA JOAN (3.15 Fairyhouse)
BET 5pts win and place LEIUTENANT COLONEL and 4pts win (stakes saver) RENNETI (3.50 Fairyhouse)
BET (BETDAQ Double-Value Bonus): 2.5pts win and place at 16.0 DOUBLE IRISH (4.20 Fairyhouse)
BET 3.3pts win on each REGAL D’ESTRUVAL and BOOK’EM DANNO (4.25 Market Rasen)
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It’s not easy settling in. Moving ‘house’ from National Hunt to Flat requires a different approach, a new mind-set. Jumps fans don’t have to let go altogether, with Scottish and Irish Nationals, then Punchestown, still to come.
And Flat punters have – or should have – their golden rules, which I’ve chewed over in a recent column, so that they don’t burn their fingers early on:
2.10 Windsor There are punters who live off the Hannon two-year-old winners and, since the yard had 135 of them last season, that’s a pretty good living!
The Hannons are 101101 in this race, so here we go again on the Magical Roundabout, the first of another East Everleigh ton at least.
2.20 Redcar Michael Dods does well at this meeting. He won the opener last year with his first two-year-old runner and Reet Petite (2.20) will be his first this year: 32.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Bill Turner, who usually gets a flyer with juveniles, had Paddy Again second in the Brocklesby (Penalty Scorer behind), and the form has already been franked by success for the third horse home.
3.10 Windsor Ogbourne Downs and Ain’t Got A Scooby both won first time out on turf last season. Since Clive Cox’s first runners have been long-pricesd losers, I’ll go for that Hills hope called Downs, unbeaten in two visits to Windsor.
3.50 Redcar Justonefortheroad dropped 15lb last year. Likes cut in the ground and started the 2012 season with a double. Trainer Richard Fahey won three on the opening cards at Doncaster, where Justonefortheroad had his first run back.
Snow Bay won second time out last season and has also had a run back, finishing last of all but that was on AW. Should be straighter for it.
Capaill Liath was fourth at Doncaster in the boys’ race but this mile is stretching it a bit for the 7f specialist, though he’s 9lb lower now than for his last turf success.
Save The Bees, on the other hand, needs further and his yard is in poor form, with five of its six recent starters last or nearly so in a sequence of big-field races.
Eric Alston’s already had a winner and Spavento, successful first time out last season, is within a couple of pounds of his last winning mark. Then there’s that man Dods again (Kiwi Bay).
The one for me is Knight Owl, with James Fanshawe off the mark last Wednesday with his very first Flat (AW) runner of the year, well backed.
3.40 Windsor and 4.20 Redcar Here are the dreaded three-year-old handicaps. Why so dreadful? Well, like the schoolboy’s 100 lines, we need to write over and over: ‘This year is this year; last year is last.’
It’s the punters’ law as two-year-olds reappear in the Classic season.
Some juveniles will repeat their ability from their first season: some will improve; but many will go into reverse in their second season. And you and I have no way of knowing, though the BETDAQ market might help.
5.20 Redcar Last year Mark Johnston (his runner was made favourite) and Tom Tate (he won it with another well backed) spotted that three-year-olds get a big allowance in this.
This time around, Johnston has primed Zanouska at Lingfield, and she may be too good for Marco Botti’s Rose Kazan, though the handicapper thinks Rose is 2lb better.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except in Daq Multiples)
BET 0.6pts win and place REET PETITE (2.20 Redcar)
BET 3.7pts win OGBOURNE DOWNS (3.10 Windsor)
BET 5.2pts win KNIGHT OWL (3.50 Redcar)
BET 7pts win ZANOUSKA and 1.45pts win (stakes saver) ROSE KAZAN (5.20 Redcar)
DAQ MULTIPLES: BET 10pts win on each MAGICAL ROUNDABOUT (nap, 2.10 Windsor) and PADDY AGAIN (2.20 Redcar) plus 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt acca the same two with OGBOURNE DOWNS (3.10 Windsor) and KNIGHT OWL (3.50 Redcar)
(Daqman’s win-20 value analysis is back on Friday)
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CLASSIC SEARCH: WHERE IS THE DERBY WINNER?
The 2014 Derby winner has already been beaten. Or at least there’s a 60% chance that he has. Even Sea The Stars, ranked sixth best Derby winner in 40 years, lost first time out – only fourth – at The Curragh in July 2008, though he was never defeated again in eight races.
Six of the last 10 Epsom heroes were beaten somewhere along their path to glory, three of them in their Classic year.
North Light, Pour Moi, Authorized and Sea The Stars were all beaten as juveniles, with Pour Moi losing again on his three-year-old reappearance.
Newbury and Navan kick off the three-year-old trials this weekend, with the Greenham in England and the Ballysax in Ireland, both on Saturday.
The Greenham has 20 left in, among them a Guineas punt over the weekend, Night Of Thunder, for the in-form Richard Hannon stable. Kingman (John Gosden) and Berkshire (Paul Cole) are among his likely Newbury opponents.
The Guineas and the Dante are the best Derby guides, though Ruler Of The World (Chester Vase) and Pour Moi (Prix Greffulhe) won different trials.
Dante winners of the Derby were North Light, Motivator and Authorized but Workforce was beaten, second at York. Guineas winners of the Derby were Camelot and Sea The Stars. Beaten in that first Classic at Newmarket were New Approach and Sir Percy, both runners-up.
KEY 2014 DERBY TRIALS (based on last 10 years): May 3 Saint-Cloud, Prix Greffulhe; May 3 Newmarket, 2,000 Guineas; May 8 Chester Vase; May 14 York, Dante Stakes.
KEY STATS (based on last 10 years): Only one winner in the decade was unraced at two. But just four winners took major two-year-old trials (Racing Post Trophy 2, Dewhurst 2, National Stakes 1), and only four were unbeaten in their careers.
The winners’ official ratings as they lined up for the Derby were: New Approach (126+), Camelot (121), Sea The Stars (121), Sir Percy (121), Motivator (117), Authorized (116), North Light (113), Pour Moi (113), Ruler Of The World (109), Workforce (108).
Five at the front of the market for this year’s race at Epsom on Saturday June 7 already have ratings as big or bigger than some of these winners. They are:
KEY RATINGS: AUSTRALIA (currently rated 117) entered for the 2,000 Guineas and Dante Stakes; KINGSTON HILL (rated 120) 2,000 Guineas, Dante Stakes; BE READY (rated 111) Greenham, 2,000 Guineas, Dante.
GEOFFREY CHAUCER (rated 112) Ballysax Stakes; 2,000 Guineas; Dante. BERKSHIRE (rated 113) Greenham, 2,000 Guineas, Dante.
* Look out next week for my ante-post bet on the 2,000 Guineas.
TODAY’S RACING:
Pontefract stage their first meeting of the new season and it’s a track I like. Quirky with an uphill finish.
There’s a decent class 2 handicap on the card too. The New Betting Hall Handicap at 4.15 for which 11 now go to post. The Luca Cumani trained Ajman Bridge being a significant non runner.
I like previous course and distance winners here at Pontefract but the two in this race, Easy Terms and Las Verglas Star, are both reappearing after lengthy absences and the fitness edge may lie elsewhere.
Romantic Settings for Richard Fahey (who won the race last season) has the class to win this but his ‘last of four’ effort on reappearance at Doncaster, even at a higher level, doesn’t inspire too much confidence. He was beaten nearly 28 lengths that day and although the step back in distance will help, I prefer the chances of Sennockian Star for the in-form stable of Mark Johnston. He finished 7th of 10 in the Winter Derby Trial race at Lingfield last time out, a Listed race in its own right. Sennockian Star seems versatile ground wise, one of his better efforts came on soft ground at York when second to Sam Sharp in a class 2 handicap at York. This is very much a grade he can win in and the trip is spot on. The BETDAQ price of 15 at the time of writing stands out as good value and I will go in win and place (around 4.0 at the time of writing).
For the nap, and a bid to extend the recent good run, I’m playing a little more speculatively.
At Southwell, Teajaybe stands out in the 3.30 race. He absolutely romped home over course, distance and same grade last time out beating Adili by eight lengths – and that was eased down too ! It’s no surprise to see him up 8lb in the weights but it might not be a sufficient anchor. Chief rival Honoured won a weak claimer as easily as his 1/12 starting price indicated he should last time out but I have big reservations about the trip for this one and I also think the handicapper has more control over him, unlike the selection who is trading around 2.86 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) TEAJAYBE (3.30 Southwell)
BET 2.5pts win and 2.5 points place SENNOCKIAN STAR (4.15 Pontefract)
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BETDAQ’S THE PLACE:
I prefer the chances of Sennockian Star for the in-form stable of Mark Johnston. He finished 7th of 10 in the Winter Derby Trial race at Lingfield last time out, a Listed race in its own right. Sennockian Star seems versatile ground wise, one of his better efforts came on soft ground at York when second to Sam Sharp in a class 2 handicap at York. This is very much a grade he can win in and the trip is spot on. The BETDAQ price of 15 at the time of writing stands out as good value and I will go in win and place (around 4.0 at the time of writing).
Just the two bets yesterday including Sennockian Star (yesterday’s thoughts above) who came third at 9/1 but was 4 on the BETDAQ place market at the time of writing. I can’t complain with a 3/1 winner from two races which helped me ‘wipe my face’ as they say in those awful afternoon auction programmes on TV – I think it means break even !!
There’s plenty of value kicking around in the BETDAQ place market – proving yet again there are so many ways of playing a race both before, during and even after in the case of photos and stewards. As punters we’ve never had it so good, but we still need some old fashioned good luck from time to time…… my nap yesterday, Teajaybe, drifted pre-race but looked the winner at every stage up the home straight but was frustratingly out-battled near the line.
BETDAQ KEMPTON RACES:
Four races sponsored by BETDAQ tonight:
5:30 Betdaq £500 In Free Bets Handicap (3yo, Class 5, 6f, 8 runners)
This looks a decent opener – certainly better than the opener at the track last week – a two runner maiden with a 1/33 favourite !
This is more like it – a race for punters to get stuck into.
Biotic is the obvious starting point as the only course and distance winner in the race, that win came just nine days ago when he was well backed on his all-weather debut and made all the running to win a Grade 6 handicap.
He is without doubt well handicapped, even allowing for the extra 6lb he will carry tonight, but this looks quite a lot tougher and he doesn’t appeal at around 2.82.
Mick Channon’s runners have started the new season well. He had a 33/1 winner at Windsor on Monday that won by five lengths! He runs Crazee Diamond here who makes her handicap debut. She won really well at Wolverhampton last time out, over five furlongs, but gave the impression that the extra furlong here will suit.
6:30 Betdaq £25 No Lose Bet Classified Stakes (3yo, Class 5, 7f, 8 runners)
The eye is drawn to the Luca Cumani trained Don’t who was a shock 25/1 winner here on her debut in October and has her second start tonight.
It was a bunch finish that night – distances: neck, neck, neck and the form has worked out reasonably since.
However, I prefer the chances of Brown Eyed Honey who made a pleasing debut at Newmarket and then followed up winning at Musselburgh. The horse she beat that day, Gallic Breeze went on to win at Chester.
7:30 Betdaq 3% Commission Handicap (4yo+, Class 3, 2m, 7 runners)
A really competitive stayers class 3 handicap in which I’m struggling to categorically rule out ANY of them.
I think Mr Burbidge might be outclassed – it was only a seller that he won last time (he was a 1/10 shot) although he is a versatile sort and seems to handle both the Polytrack and Fibresand surfaces equally well.
The only one that the handicapper might not have a firm handle on is White Nile who has joined Ed Dunlop’s yard having finished last season with a win over the St Leger trip at Doncaster for David Simcock.
8:00 Betdaq – The Sports Betting Exchange Handicap (3yo, Class 6, 1m, 9 runners)
There’s a small risk here that one of the lightly raced sorts might end up looking like a handicap snip – but at face value it doesn’t look that competitive and it might pay to stay with proven course form.
Choral Clan was a perfectly acceptable 2 1/2 length second to Jazzy Lady over C&D in November and is having his first race since. Jazzy Lady has gone on to win more races and the form looks solid enough.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8pts win (nap) CRAZEE DIAMOND (5.30 Kempton)
BET 2.5pts win BROWN EYED HONEY (6.30 Kempton)
BET 4pts win WHILE NILE (7.30 Kempton)
BET 2.5pts win CHORAL CLAN (8.00 Kempton)
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Maybe being out of the handicap is not such a black mark. In fact, 11 winners of the Scottish Grand National in 30 years have been ‘wrong’ at the weights, like 47 of the 58 acceptors for Saturday.
Last time this happened, the winner came from 26lb out of the handicap but never was there such a spread from 11st 12lb down to 7st 11lb as this year. Minimum weight: 10st
What has not happened since 1971-2 is a seven-year-old winning it back to back. But there are strong contenders to follow up last year’s success by Godsmejudge, only the second aged seven to score in 22 years.
Saturday’s lucky sevens are Sam Winner, Hadrian’s Approach, Green Flag, Merry King, Edmund Kean, Emperor’s Choice, Beeves, Tutchec and Ifyousayso. Three of them are in the handicap proper.
Here’s how the stats are stacked up against them, with a strong ‘A’ team of horses aged eight-to-10 years old:
ABCDE ALPHA VICTOR
Midlands Grand National runner-up at Uttoxeter to Goulanes on only his fourth start over fences, earlier refusing twice (blamed on ‘feeling leg injury’). Summery Justice was fourth and Fill The Power seventh at Uttoxeter.
ABCDE LACKAMON
Durham National winner off 9lb lower a year or so ago. Seen twice over hurdles recently – third to Lie Forrit on the last day – no doubt as a confidence restorer after falling over fences on this Ayr course.
ABCDE MISTER MARKER
Stable not much in the news lately but has 25% strike rate with chasers – best season for some time in that respect – and back-to-form Mister Marker, an Ayr winner over hurdles and fences, was third in this last year.
ABCDEX SUMMERY JUSTICE
One of three – with Emperor’s Choice, Rigadin De Beauchene – left in by Venetia Williams. Fourth Midlands Grand National. Won only a veterans’ race in last two seasons.
ABEF GOSDMEJUDGE
Last year’s winner on a sound surface – only 6lb higher now – after good third in 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham. Resumed with close-up fifth in the Murphys at Cheltenham in November but pulled up last twice, though the going was good both times.
ACDE FILL THE POWER
Fifth, plugging on, last year – 10lb lower – after filling same spot in Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter. Back to form in February but further back, seventh, in Uttoxeter marathon this time around, with Alpha Victor and Summery Justice doing better.
ACDE POUNGACH
Last win, more than a year ago, came blinkered first time and he’s slipped a few pounds with moderate efforts since, never really fluent in his jumping. But stayed on well over 29f on the last day, and bred to get five miles!
ACDE ROALCO DE FARGES
From the same yard as the gallant Aintree runner-up Balthazar King, second to Teaforthree as a novice and to Tidal Bay in the 2012 Sandown Gold Cup but only fifth Midlands Grand National same year. Back to something like his best at Newbury.
ACDEX BAILE ANRAI
Novice-chase sequence (three from four still standing) put him on a high mark from which he did not recover until he won at Leicester in November, down 18lb in a year or so. Good second, staying on, in Great Yorkshire since.
ACDEX HERDSMAN
Improved 11lb last backend, including giving weight, narrowly beaten by Tutchec. But jumping let him down at Haydock and pulled up NH Chase, Cheltenham.
ACDEX TRUSTAN TIMES
Classy enough to be third in the Long Walk Hurdle, runner-up in the Rendlesham and fourth in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham (neck behind Pineau De Re). But only one chase start in two years.
ACD MIDNIGHT APPEAL
Useful chaser until fell 2012 Kim Muir. Hurdles starts since, including tilt at Haydock Long Distance Hurdle. Back to fair form over fences, jumping round in the Grand Sefton.
ACD McMURROUGH
Back-to-back winner last Spring but has struggled off revised mark since and unlikely improver at age 10.
ACE YES TOM
Form at Ayr, hurdles and fences, is 22214123, but needed drop of 12lb in the ratings to win small-field race at Down Royal. Now back to mark of two years ago.
ACE LIE FORRIT
One-time Ayr specialist but not won beyond 27f (hurdle). Best run was Grade-3 hurdle third to Gevrey Chambertin in November.
AC AL CO
Useful hurdler and novice chsser with just one win (3m chase) since May 2012. Was 10th of 12 finishers United house Gold Cup at Ascot in November.
AC PURE FAITH
Al Co’s stablemate, with summer success over hurdles and fences last year. Just one chase win in 21 races since June 2011.
AC NUTS N BOLTS
Progressive early last year and won over 29f on his return to action after pulling muscles at the third in this race but no show since in Grand National Trial at Haydock behind Rigadin de Beauchene.
ADEX STORM SURIVOR
Narrowly beaten by Al Co at the backend of last year before falling in the Becher Chaser at Aintree. Returned to form when second in the Grimthorpe last month (Monbeg Dude behind) but 11lb out of the handicap here.
AD MENDIP EXPRESS
Novices have won this three times in the last decade (eight wins in 20 years) but this one has had only five races – four chases – in his life. Impressive win at Cheltenham in January (27f), though swerved Cheltenham NH Chase tilt after poor Newbury run on heavy.
A BATTLE GROUP
Brilliant hat-trick jumps and hurdles, including at the Aintree Festival, last Spring but was the cause of the mayhem at the start of last week’s National when he refused to race, not for the first time.
A RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE
Beat Godsmejudge in the 2013 Warwick Classic (3m 5f) but worse off at the weights now, and pulled up in this last year. Won Haydock Grand National Trial first run back (Emperors Choice second, Nuts And Bolts fourth) but that’s cost him a 16lb rise.
BDE TIDAL BAY
Hugely compressed this handicap – only 11 of 88 acceptors were officially on 10st or more – as a former Sandown Gold Cup winner and Hennessy runner-up (2012).
Didn’t get far enough in the Aintree National last week to over-exert himself but has not won on a track like this for six years, and has always been more at home at more rugged venues, Cheltenham, Wetherby and Carlisle.
CDEFX EMPEROR’S CHOICE
Distant seventh in last year’s NH Chase at Cheltenham, sixth and seventh Southern National and Warwick Classic. But back to form on heavy to win West Wales National.
Another good performance in deep ground when 10-lengths runner-up Haydock Grand National Trial. Now 10lb better off with the winner, Rigadin De Beauchene.
CDE GREEN FLAG
Novices have won this three times in the decade but this one looks vulnerable as a seven-year-old who has so far tackled only around 3m. But course form 1221 and fine fourth to the big improver Holywell at Cheltenham.
CDE MERRY KING
On the premises at a young age, second in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot, fifth in both the Hennessy and Welsh National, third in the Peter Marsh. Yet he’s a pound lower than at this stage last year, so still to make the breakthrough.
CDE ROBERTO GOLDBACK
Top-class novice but not won since United House Gold Cup at Ascot, November 2012. Fourth in same Ascot race last year and slipped 20lb down the ratings. Good recent third in Kim Muir at Cheltenham festival.
CD EDMUND KEAN
Very lightly raced seven-year-old, five times scorer on soft-heavy up to 3m. Jumps well, travels well, enjoy a galloping circuit.
DE SAM WINNER
Still only seven, though novices have won this three times. He hasn’t raced beyond 26f but Paul Nicholls designated him for the four-miler at Cheltenham.
Ditcheat didn’t have an RSA candidate so he was the stable’s representative for the novice title instead, and the way he ran it seemed to be a case of: if you can’t win, don’t leave the Scottish National behind at Cheltenham.
D HADRIANS APPROACH
The 2012 RSA third was much shorter than winning stablemate Triolo D’Alene for the Hennessy but unseated rider. Also down the field at Cheltenham and no improvement in his rating over the last 14 months. Still only seven.
DEX IFYOUSAYSO
Up 23lb after back-to-back 3m wins but good second in 3m Brown Chamberlin Trophy at Ascot recently.Â
TODAY’S RACING: Has Gosden scared them all away ?
John Gosden looks to have an outstanding chance of a double tonight and it’s time to play BETDAQ MULTIPLES as the pair coupled are paying around 2.88, or, 15/8 in old money.
Anglo Irish has just three rivals in the 7.40 and should be able to build on a maiden win at Lingfield last time out when he overcame trouble in running. The market is held together by the presence of the Sir Michael Stoute trained Festival Theatre who built on a promising debut at Salisbury to win a Kempton maiden here last August. The two Newmarket trained rivals look roughly the ‘same horse’ to me, so it’s is puzzling to see the handicapper rate Anglo Irish eight pounds inferior. On my ‘weights and measures’ I’ve therefore got 8lb up the sleeve with the Gosden runner.
It’s another four horse race at 8.40 and this time I am with the John Gosden trained Terhaab who won her maiden here last time out (Speed Hawk who was third, went on to win at Wolverhampton next time out). Back over the same C&D Terhaab should make a winning debut in handicap company.
Earlier in the day Solar Sky catches my eye in the 3.20 on the marathon eight race card at Taunton. Solar Sky, trained by David Elsworth was a Haydock winner for Sir Henry Cecil on the flat and ran the race of his career when a neck second to Namibian in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot in 2011. He was a 20/1 shot on his hurdling debut at Kempton and shaped well for much of the race – eventually dropping back to fifth. That experience, combined with the longer trip today makes him a standout in a very modest contest – and we are getting over 2/1 for our money too.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 8pts win (nap) SOLAR SKY (3.20 Taunton)
BET 4pts DAQ MULTIPLES DOUBLE on ANGLO IRISH (7.40 Kempton) and TERHAAB (8.40 Kempton)
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2.00 Newbury Large fields or small, the winner has come from stalls 2 to 5 in eight years out of 10 and the one-two places in those eight years have come from the low-five stalls 13 times out of 16.
Crafty Choice (gate 2) is an obvious one to add to Team Hannon’s four juvenile winners on turf already, but there may be a bit of value in Justice Good (stall 3).
The David Elsworth stable, which has started well enough and has had six winners on the Newbury first-day card in nine years, won this race last season with a similarly named colt, subsequent Middle Park third Justice Day.
These colts called Justice are by Acclamation, sire of top-class sprinters Equiano and Dark Angel, both expected to produce smart juvenile winners themselves at stud this season.
Kibaar, by Pastoral Pursuits, is interesting with Paul Hanagan booked. The sire has already had a two-year-old winner on turf this season with Flyman, which narrowly beat a juvenile trained by Richard Fahey, who saddles Ballymore Castle here.
Magical Memory’s yard has won this before but the grey is out on the bypass in stall 12, alongside the Hannon second-string, Be Bold.
David Elsworth makes few mistakes running an occasional two-year-old at this time of year (2-3 up to June in 2013) and 12.5 was huge on BETDAQ this morning.
2.30 Newbury Outsiders at 25-1 (three times) and 16-1 have won this in the last six years. What they had in common was between four and seven runs on AW or over hurdles already that year.
Leo Luna would be 11lb clear of this field if the race were a hurdle; Outrageous Request and Bob’s World would dead-heat for second, on the ratings.
On stable form, you takes your pick from Desert Recluse, Leo Luna, Story Writer and Bob’s World. Leo Luna and Bobs World are common to both groups.
3.05 Newbury Andrew Balding has had 22 winners already this year and John Gosden’s stable form is 11013114, with 16 out of the last 22 in the first three.
Clive Cox is on a hat-trick after winners at Kempton in the last two days. His Shankly has a stone to find on 2013 form but, as this column has said several times: this year is this year, last year is last, as far as young horses are concerned.
3.40 Newbury John Gosden is two out of two in this since 2010, both of them subsequently fifth in the French 2,000 Guineas, and his Oasis Dream colt Muwarry is quoted for the 2,000 at Newmarket.
Zarwaan (The Curragh) and Hors De Combat (Newmarket) also have Guineas engagements. The Hannon yard, which runs three, took the prize last season.
4.15 Newbury These handicappers are more exposed than the three-year-olds of the two previous races. Those below the age of six have won eight out of nine since 2005.
Dutch Masterpiece and Steps lead the ratings and head the market but, since the start of 2012, Steps has needed blinkers and a run back before he can win.
The blinds are also missing from Stewards Cup third Burwaaz, and Tennessee Wildcat needs another furlong or more; he gets behind, even at 6f and 7f.
Lucky Beggar started with a good third in the Free Handicap last April but his subsequent form was not even close to Dutch Masterpiece’s Flying Five (Group 3) success.
Kyleakin Lass is expected to need the race and the dangers to Dutch Masterpiece may be Ballesteros, who has spent six of his last eight starts in the Pattern, and old Jimmy Styles – also dropped from Group and Listed level – for the in-form Clive Cox.
But I can’t see either of them troubling Dutch Masterpiece at the weights. Four of the last six winners have had the class to carry more than 9st 2lb to win.
4.55 Ayr Competitive racing at Ayr on the first day of the Scottish National meeting but there are holes to pick in this one.
Bull And Bush and Romantic Fashion have to climb in class as well as in the ratings, while Clara McCloud, an easy winner on Wednesday, tries to sneak under the handicapper’s radar with a small penalty. It rarely works these days.
Twin Plan is two out of two at Ayr, plotted for back-to-back wins in this race after a recent run back at Downpatrick. The danger is Mickie, who is down from Graded and Listed level.
5.55 Ayr The one-time-classy Lieutenant Miller has twice won after long absences and will have been ‘got up’ for this. Not much threatens in the immediate market.
Dundee is a maiden, Howizee is up 15lb on his last success and, if Ryan Mania was worried about 2m 4f here last time – ‘I didn’t want to commit too soon over the trip’ – then it looks like A P McCoy has one of those grinding-out jobs to do on Forward Flight, now trying 3m.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each bet staked to win 20 points unless marked as a stakes saver)
BET 1.7pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) JUSTICE GOOD and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) CRAFTY CHOICE (2.00 Newbury)
BET 8.5pts win (nap) DUTCH MASTERPIECE (4.15 Newbury)
BET 4pts win MICKIE and 3.7pts win TWIN PLAN (4.55 Ayr)
BET 4.5pts win LIEUTENANT MILLER (5.25 Ayr)
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1.50 Newbury (John Porter Stakes) In three years out of four, the winner would need the level of rating of Noble Mission to win this. He’s top on 111 but has won only one five-runner affair since July 2012.
And it’s possible that a four-year-old has improved the necessary few pounds over the winter, which is why winners up to 12-1 and 11-1 have bowled out all bar one favourite since 2007.
One of the surprises was Harbinger, an amazing price in hindsight at 11-2. We didn’t know he would go on to win the King George for master trainer Sir Michael Stoute, whose recent form in this race is 1010.
His Galileo filly, Astonishing (5.2 on BETDAQ as I write), has not finished out of the first three since her introduction and looked a potential star when scoring seven lengths at Newmarket in September.
She takes on a colt of great promise in Mutashaded but he has not been seen since June and the stable is missing strike badly with a string of horses placed without winning – 344404333330 – including three beaten favourites.
Astonishing will be looking for a good pace, and should get it: Cocktail Queen, Nearly Caught and Pether’s Moon have all front-run in their time.
2.20 Newbury (Fred Darling Stakes) Third, sixth, eighth and ninth are the best results in the decade for Fred Darling winners going on to the 1,000 Guineas.
2.55 Newbury (Greenham Stakes) This is a much more successful trial, with Frankel (2011), of course, the biggest star to emerge.
Today features Gimcrack and Middle Park winner Astaire, Chesham and Royal Lodge scorer Berkshire, plus Kingman (Solario), Night Of Thunder and a big winter whisper, Lat Hawill.
If you fancy predicting the 2,000 Guineas winner before today’s test, you could get Kingman at 7.4 on BETDAQ this morning, Night Of Thunder 10.5, Berkshire 17.0, Lat Hawill 23.0, Astaire 45.0
2.40 Ayr (Scottish Champion Hurdle) The first-time-hooded My Tent Or Yours – second in the Cheltenham championship – has to give 16lb and more all round in this limited handicap.
Weight-carrying is rarely achieved. Blowing Wind won a four-horse affair in 1998 but, in fact, it’s 18 years since the Cheltenham runner-up, Alderbrook, managed to beat lightly-weighted rivals in a normal-sized field.
Only Raya Star has since won this from the 11st-plus range in the last decade and that was because there was nothing much below him at the weights.
The improvers likely to confuse the handicapper are five-year-olds Flaxen Flare and Cockney Sparrow, and the six-year-old, Clever Cookie.
However, the form of Montbazon’s County Hurdle third (Flaxen Flare fifth) has been boosted by the winner doing the double at Aintree.
Strictly on Fighting Fifth form at Newcastle in November, Cockney Sparrow gets 13lb to make up three lengths on My Tent Or Yours and Cotton Mill 20lb for six-and-a-half lengths.
That’s how hard it is for the favourite, and I dived into the green this morning, laying him at 2.28, and backing Montbazon at 7.6.
3.30 Newbury Spring Cup Four-year-olds are 12 out of 16 since 1997. Four of the last five winners had already started off, in the Spring Mile or the Lincoln.
That’s a plus for Gabrial’s Kaka, who was a big punt on Lincoln day but was weaker on BETDAQ this morning, maybe because he looked at Doncaster as though he needs the ground to dry out. Watch the market.
We are also looking for stable confidence in So Beloved, gelded now and with Oisin Murphy booked. All the Roger Charlton horses under 5-1 in the last fortnight have finished in the frame.
The Lincoln winner, Ocean Tempest, has put a sequence of wins together before now, but none were off today’s high mark and it is doubtful he can make all again.
My Lincoln bet was One Word More, withdrawn after becoming unruly in the stalls and in gate eight today. The ‘sod’s law of punting’ (the day you drop a horse, it wins) means I had to ‘leave a pound’ on him at 16.0. But I’m looking elsewhere for the winner.
The Stoute bottomweight, Enobled (13.5 on BETDAQ), won first time up last season and is 13lb better off with the winner of his last start, Brownsea Brink (had a run), and another Stoute transformation is possibility
Sir Michael won the Lockinge on today’s course first time up with Peeress, the dam of Enobled, and also improved her daughter, Ladyship, to Listed level.
Bronze Angel (blinkered first time) and Foxtrot Romeo have run in better company but stalls 1-14 have filled 18 of the 24 places in six years.
3.50 Ayr (Scottish Grand National): See Daqman’s ABC Guide on Thursday in the Archive.
A neck behind Aintree hero Pineau De Re, giving him 4lb. Joint top-rated. And 22lb well in with Tidal Bay on Graded form. How’s that for a Scottish Grand National horse? Tell me more, you say.
Well, it’s 17 months on, but this animal, Trustan Times, even beat Holywell – double hero of Cheltenham and Aintree – giving that one 12lb, with the 2012 Grand National runner-up, Sunnyhillboy, only fifth, some 23 lengths back, receiving 7lb.
Just one snag with my handicap snip of the century. All the form I have recounted was over hurdles, and he’s run in only one chase recently and been beaten. You have to decide:
Is this a training coup, to engineer running a classy hurdler off – just a pound short of – a stone lower chase mark?
When I remind you that the trainer is Tim Easterby (Run Ructions Run and Hawk High), you may well mutter: ‘Yorkshire shrewdie’ and ‘Takes after Uncle Mick.’
Trustan Times (16.0 on BETDAQ this morning but only a 10-1 shot in my pricing up) was placed in the Long Walk Hurdle and the Rendlesham and his big win over Holywell and Sunnyhillboy was over the tough fixed-brush hurdles at Haydock Park.
His novice-chase form before that was 1233, achieving a rating of only 134 over fences, but he’s a 147 hurdler since that narrow defeat in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in March, when he finished alongside Pineau De Re.
Four of the last seven winners of this Scottish National led by halfway and, with this featherweight, I expect Trustan Times to make just such an early charge.
Mister Marker (needs soft), Roalco De Farges and Sam Winner are also likely to take the field on at a mid-race stage. ‘Roalco’ is only 6lb better with Tidal Bay for a 15-length defeat in the Sandown Gold Cup but that was two years ago when he was just seven years old and Tidal Bay was in his heyday.
Rigadin De Beauchene, Mendip Express and Roalco De Farges have all shot up the handicap. Sam Winner is only seven right now.
But he is the Paul Nicholls selected, as stablemate Tidal Bay compresses the handicap to just 11 horses with the rest of the field forced to carry overweight.
Very few in this have done anything like the four-mile trip. Exceptions are Midlands National runner-up Alpha Victor, Durham National winner Lackamon and, of course, last year’s winner, Godsmejudge. Though he’s been out of form recently, ‘’God’ actually carries 12lb less than last year because of the Tidal Bay phenomenon.
Hadrian’s Approach and Merry King, fifth in both Hennessy and Welsh National, are not fully exposed: ‘Hadrian’, the 2012 RSA third, was much shorter in the Hennessy market than his winning stablemate Triolo D’Alene but unseated rider.
Tidal Bay didn’t get far enough in the National to blow his chances in this but the last 22 to come on from Aintree to the Scottish equivalent have managed only one place.
Nuts N Bolts, who pulled up after injuring himself at the third, when joint second favourite last year, has been saved for the race all season, and is ridden by the winningmost lady rider in any jumps season, Lucy Alexander.
But ‘Nuts’ trainer, Lucinda Russell, has two others, with Peter Buchanan presumably choosing Green Flag and a claimer is up on Lie Forrit.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: My three against the field are Trustan Times (backed for a double bonus at 16.0), Sam Winner (14.0) and Nuts N Bolts (24.0).
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except double-bonus bets, where Daqman backs the horse, win 30, at the price he thinks it should be).
LAY 5pts MUTASHADED and BET 7pts win (nap) ASTONISHING (1.50 Newbury)
LAY 10pts MY TENT OR YOURS and BET 4.5pts win MONTBAZON (2.40 Ayr)
BET 2.4pts win ENOBLED and 2pts win ONE WORD MORE (3.30 Newbury)
DOUBLE-BONUS BET: 3pts win and place TRUSTAN TIMES at 16.0 plus, to win 30, BET: 2.3pts win SAM WINNER and 1.3pts win and place NUTS N BOLTS (3.50 Ayr)
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PROOF YET AGAIN THAT BETDAQ IS THE PLACE FOR BIG-RACE VALUE
Well, Al Co to the foot of our stairs! After many kilowatt-hours, burning the midnight halogen, my 39.0 Grand National gamble is second and my 16.0 BETDAQ bet in the Scottish equivalent yesterday comes third.
It answers three questions I’m often asked: What do you mean by value? Is it worth betting each way? Is it worth betting ante-post?
Ante-post bets – and I include the morning of the race – should be an attempt to get bigger odds about horses that will be shorter nearer the ‘off’ and at SP. Those two National horses started 14-1 and 10-1, so 271% and 50% better value.
Place bets are best when, at a quarter or fifth the odds, you are on as if backing to win at between 3-1 and 6-1. With win and place at big odds, you get the win bet, cover on the win stake and three or four more chances of a return from the place. In effect, five bets for two plus an insurance policy! Can’t be bad.
GROTTE? NO, LONGCHAMP TRIAL COULD BE BOOST TO MISS FRANCE
1.30 Longchamp Today’s fillies’ trial, the Prix De La Grotte, is the race that threw up Zarkava, who went on to win the 2008 French 1,000 Guineas and Oaks, Vermeille and Arc.
Punters on Miss France for the Newmarket 1,000 will be looking for nothing less than winning form this afternoon from Indonesienne, who was the ‘moral’ over Miss France in August, beaten little more than a length but giving away 4lb.
2.40 Longchamp Not since Daylami and Ashkalani (1996-7 for the Aga Khan) has today’s other trial, the Prix De Fontainebleau, for colts, produced anything of note.
The winner should come from last season’s Criterium International and Lagardere winners, Ectot and Karakonite, but posing no immediate threat to Greenham winner Kingman. Miss France and Kingman were among my horses to follow.
VERDICT: Kingman’s smooth and so-mature Greenham win makes him white hot for the Newmarket 2,000 but Miss France may be overlooked at 12.5 on BETDAQ for the 1,000, and you should have your marauding mouse poised to bite if Indonesienne wins.
Miss France is already only 7-1 with 11 bookmakers quoted by Oddschecker this morning. I’ll be watching the Grotte, with gold in mind!
3.20 The Curragh In receipt of 9lb from Truthwillsetufree, the former Andrew Balding inmate, Taglietelle, runaway winner over hurdles at Downpatrick recently, looked a bet at around 5-2 this morning.
4.05 Tramore Balnaslow, who has tackled the Thyestes and the Kim Muir, should have no problems with this simple reward for consistency, dropped in class.
4.30 Wincanton Aldopicgros and Harry Derham are expected to make it a hat-trick, as the hub of my Daq Multiples.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8pts win (nap) TAGLIETELLE (3.20 The Curragh)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble TAGLIETELLE (3.20 The Curragh), BALNASLOW (4.05 Tramore) and ALDOPICGROS (4.30 Wincanton)
ANTE-POST: BET 2.6pts (charged to the account to win 30 points at 12.5) MISS FRANCE (1,000 Guineas, Newmarket), with proviso to take 10.0 or better, but only if Indonesienne wins 1.30 Longchamp this afternoon.
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NELL GWYN BEST OF THE GUINEAS TRIALS THIS WEEK
I’m giving France a miss! Yes, yesterday’s Prix de la Grotte was run at a crawl until past halfway, which is some excuse for the modest performance of Indonesienne, the form line to Newmarket 1,000 Guineas hope, Miss France.
Miss France had herself been beaten, amid excuses, in an earlier, usually more indicative trial, the Prix Imprudence. Punters betting on one excuse are taking a risk; on two, are soon in the workhouse. I’m not going down this ally, France!
Nell Gwyn Stakes (Wednesday) Five 1,000 winners in the last decade had already won at Newmarket, plus a winner and second in Wednesday’s Nell Gwyn Stakes.
The 24 entries for Wednesday’s race suggest there are a lot of hopefuls around this year from Ballydoyle in Tipperary to Great Habton in Yorkshire.
Al Thakhira, Cape Factor, Majeyda and Miss Lillie in the Nell Gwyn entries have already won at Newmarket. Only Ihtimal and Lucky Kristale from the front of the Guineas betting have done so.
The one other test in the year of the race that has produced the 1,000 winner is the Leopardstown trial, won this year by Bracelet. The signs are that the seven fillies I have just mentioned contain the Guineas heroine but Bracelet seems too big with Ladbrokes at 14-1. I see that as a warning.
Craven Stakes (Thursday) Kingman ran home, Frankel fashion, straight as a gun-barrel in the Greenham, only more maturely than Frankel at this stage of their respective careers.
But, officially still on 111, Kingman has a long way to go – 30 lengths, in fact – if he’s ever to be spoken of in the same breath by the usual suspects (sorry, experts), and Frankel was already racing off 124 when he ran in the Greenham.
Australia, currently regarded as a 117, goes straight to Newmarket, but Toormore, already on 122 after winning the National Stakes at The Curragh, will make it a three-horse 2,000 if he wins Thursday’s Craven Stakes.
Intriguing that Ladbrokes are shorter than most at 8-1 and 10-1 about Kingston Hill (12.0 on BETDAQ) and War Command (a sore thumb on the exchange at 32.0), as if they still think it’s an open race.
Richard Hannon would be completing a Craven Stakes hat-trick with Toormore but his 2012-13 winners, Trumpet Major and Toronado, were only fourth in their respective Guineas.
In fact, you have to go back to Haafhd to find a colt capable of doing the double, Craven and Guineas. Will Toormore-ow be another day!
I promised a Guineas ante-post bet this week but, unlike the Racing Post, which nominates one on a similar date each year, by some Newtonian principle, I don’t bet ante-post unless I’m pretty confident of getting some ‘overs.’
TODAY’S RACING
The opening maiden at Windsor today looks likely to be won by a debutant. Not the most earth shattering piece of advice to start the week – 9 of the 12 runners are making their debuts after all! But whilst I’m usually keen on the benefit of experience at this stage of the season, the three runners who have already run didn’t show an awful lot on debut behind easy winners. Zermintrudee and Sparbrook were second and third in the same race at Wolverhampton – there was little between them that day and it’s anyone’s guess on the market who will be best of the pair today. For the winner though, the market is so far providing little assistance. The bare stats say Rod Millman isn’t in form but he had a place with an 80/1 chance at Newbury on Saturday and also a 33/1 runner-up at Kempton last week so I’m taking a chance that Mylaporyours, a daughter of Jeremy, will be fit enough on debut.
The Windsor card looks tricky but for me the best race on the card is the closing handicap at 5.20. I thought Wylye looks far too short here. She won on debut at Newbury last season, but only just, and that came on heavy ground versus ground with firm in the description today.
I was toying with a lay of Wylye but will be braver and start the week with a NAP trading at around 6.4 on BETDAQ. With Anipa at least we know she will handle the faster ground and she comes here fit from a recent win at Wolverhampton. Love Tangle is another to consider, but again there is a big question mark about the ground as he won on soft ground at Nottingham.
Pontefract threw up shock after shock winners last week so perhaps caution might again be advised.
However, I can’t resist Al Senad in the 4.10 after her encouraging third at Yarmouth last season.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win MYLAPORYOURS (2.20 Windsor)
BET 6pts win (nap) ANIPA (5.20 Windsor)
BET 6pts win AL SENAD (4.10 Pontefract)
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GET READY FOR BIG GUINEAS DRIFT BY AUSTRALIA AFTER THE CRAVEN STAKES
When does a bet become a lay? Answer: when the price is too short and, more particularly, when there are one or more of the following circumstances against it:
1: Hype
2: Poor form of the stable
3: The true odds
Examples in hindsight (I’m not after-timing; I opposed them in this column): Mutashaded on Saturday (stable out of form). My Tent Or Yours, beaten favourite, after getting the big build-up (hype), when in reality he had a huge task on the form book giving masses of weight away.
As well as trying to price up a race – asking yourself what odds are acceptable for each horse – it’s important to look at the true odds.
Example: basically, in a handicap, if the handicapper of a 10-horse race has done his job, each runner is 9-1.
Only if you can reduce the numbers against him, building a case in his favour and negatives against the others, should you be prepared to accept less about your selection.
You must have a very good set of reasons for backing the favourite in that race at, say, 2-1, which is seven points under his true odds. It means that you think it is actually a three-horse race.
It’s much harder in non-handicaps, and particularly with second-season animals with very little exposed form, and you have to add points for error and the hidden potential of dark-horse opposition.
So a three-year-old stakes race may look like a three-horse contest but any one of the others could improve and any number of hidden factors could emerge, so that 2-1 is more like 4-1 or 5-1, adding negative potential.
The dramatic success of Kingman in the Greenham and the threat of Toormore in Thursday’s Craven Stakes made Australia’s 2,000 Guineas market position look untenable this week.
Australia will drift even further if Toormore wins the Craven, after another Group-race defeat by Ballydoyle in Sunday’s Gladness Stakes.
Your secondary problem, when deciding whether to lay a horse, is your liability. I’ve played even-Stephen in this column with all my lays, concentrating on short-priced horses (and done good) but I would like to be more flexible.
So it is that I am introducing a lay stakes-range from 5pts to 20 points, with the same staking system, as for a win bet, this time aiming at a lose-20 target.
Like the Australia situation, a horse may remain a lay even when it drifts, so smaller stakes are needed, lest we take on too big a liability. At some point or other, it is no longer a sensible lay.
That’s when the pricing-up job becomes even harder: what price does the lay horse have to be before it becomes a bet! A weak Australia could be value.
RECENT BIG-RACE LAYS
DYNASTE (2nd 13-8 favourite)
BURTON PORT (unseated rider 16-1)
MONBEG DUDE (unplaced 16-1)
MUTASHADED (unplaced 3-1)
MY TENT OR YOURS (3rd evens favourite)
TODAY’S RACING:
Delighted with Anipa landing the NAP at 6/1 yesterday but DAQMAN is never happy !! I don’t often tip up debutants but did so in the opener at Windsor, Mylaporyours, who was backed off the boards on BETDAQ (and indeed was the top positive of the day on the market movers) but she had a truly nightmare passage in the race and was hampered a couple of times and I was left feeling what might have been. However, the nap more than made up for it and put a smile back on my face – honest !
Interesting days racing today ahead of Newmarket starting tomorrow (and Cheltenham for jumps fans). We’ve got a relative of Big Buck’s running in the closing second division of the Exeter bumper at Exeter – More Buck’s (yes the apostrophe is back!). Nigel Twiston-Davies saddles Warwick winner King’s Tempest in the same race and may be up to defying the penalty which is never easy to do in this type of race.
Kempton’s card looks really tough today so I’m playing at Southwell with the NAP.
Record holder Stand Guard goes for another win in the opening claimer but the bet on the card could be Pearl Princess in the Ladbrokes Median Auction Maiden Stakes at 4.00.
There is little to choose in the betting between the selection, Glorious Star and Bajan Beauty but she is the only one of the trio with Fibresand experience which counts for so much around here. Glorious Star is making his racecourse debut and Bajan Beauty has her first start on the all-weather and is making her seasonal reapperarance.
Pearl Princess showed promise here on debut when not beaten far in fourth and also ran well in third at Lingfield last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 8pts win (nap) PEARL PRINCESS (4.00 Southwell)
BET 5pts win KING’S TEMPEST (5.45 Exeter)
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Punters are fly when it comes to the 2.20 Newmarket. At a meeting when every race is for three year-olds (remember my warning that their two-year-old form won’t always work out), there have been few winning favourites over the years.
But eight out of 10, one jointly so, have taken the 2.20 sprint in the last decade, with the Hannon yard winning five despite fielding only seven runners.
The Hannon stat and the favourte’s spot combine in Flyball in the race this afternoon, though penalised horses have won only four of the 10.
1.45 Newmarket John Gosden saddled 12 winners in five days up to and including Monday at a 60% strike rate, and including six doubles and two trebles.
He has three runners today – one of them Provident Spirit in this – and picks from seven tomorrow, if Daq Multiples backers fancy him to continue the spree.
Provident Spirit had an all-important outing at Doncaster, and may have most to fear from Emirati Spirit, though the one for the future is probably Zilber, when seen over a longer trip.
What makes life even more difficult for the punter today is the change of going: it’s good-to-firm, not the soft ground, as on the day Provident Spirit was second in March.
VERDICT: Only Provident Spirit and Zilber are wanted in the BETDAQ market-place this morning. Both sides of Zilber’s pedigree shout stamina and I expect to see him picking up out of the dip but, in theory, he won’t be winning until he tackles 1m 2f plus. If he does win over shorter today, then he’s a serious horse to follow.
2.20 Newmarket Team Hannon has farmed this, with form-figures in the decade of 1110112, and the big Proclamation colt Flyball improved on his Brocklesby third to score second time of asking at Leicester.
Surely there’s scope for further improvement as he furnishes his frame, though Harry Hurricane was beaten narrowly in a three-way photo in the Leicester race and Flyball’s penalty gives ‘Harry’ the chance of turning the tables.
Charlie Appleby has started well but I thought US-dirt-bred Portamento would do better on AW. Mind Of Madness is interesting, bred to have the foot for today’s minimum trip on turf.
VERDICT: I took 4.0 Flyball on BETDAQ this morning, thinking he had more scope than Harry Hurricane, though the worry is that the big colt may need a bit of cut.
2.55 Newmarket The Tattersalls Millions Auction Trophy here at HQ in September has been a strong indicator for this, with two out of three winners having run second in the autumn race.
Today it’s a virtual rerun, with Toofi (won), Muir Lodge (third), Bon Voyage (fourth), Highland Acclaim (fifth) and Quickaswecan (sixth) all reopposing.
Muir Lodge and Highland Acclaim have the advantage of a run but both are long-term ‘hoodies’ and it would have to be a poor race for one of them to win. It’s not a poor race, if Bon Voyage can reproduce his good-ground two-year-old form.
In October, Bon Voyage would reverse the placings with Toofi over an extra furlong, from an unfavourable draw, also in a Tattersalls Millions feature here (Quickaswecan, Muir Lodge behind).
That race was won by Oklahama City, subsequently within a couple of lengths over the Rowley Mile of one of the 2,000 Guineas market leaders, Kingston Hill, in the Group-3 Autumn Stakes.
Wedding Ring has won five times, twice in Millions races at Newmarket last season, and was fourth in the UAE 1,000 Guineas in Dubai in February but would have finished only sixth in the Fred Darling if a line through two-year-old form with Manderley is still accurate.
One Chance’s third in the Queen Mary would normally be good enough for this but she refused to settle, last of eight, in a subsequent Group race. Her stable has been in fine form on AW.
Scrutiny is related only to handicappers and Naadirr, a 7f winner on AW, is bred to need further. So, too, Magnus Maximus. Crowdmania has been winning at a much lower level.
VERDICT: Fillies (like One Chance and Wedding Ring) have so far failed to make their weight allowance tell in the three runnings of this race.
Meydan form can be misleading, though at least Wedding Ring is fit and has shown her class. But, if you forgive Bon Voyage (9.4) his soft-ground flop at the end of last season, he is a match on class and should in no way be twice the price of Toofi.
3.30 Newmarket (Free Handicap) A 2,000 Guineas fifth, seventh and eighth (twice) is the general best level of the winner of this in the last decade, though the race has also produced a Jersey Stakes winner and fourth.
Shifting Power was another big, strapping Hannon colt last season, in the manner of Flyball, yet was off the mark first time, following up on the July Course here before being put away to do his growing.
Neither he nor Mushir, another dual winner, had the top-class juvenile form of Parbold, unlucky second in the Coventry, then third successively to both Toormore and Astaire (Saayeer behind but hooded now) but the stats say that the heavily-penalised top weights are at a serious disadvantage in this.
VERDICT: The classy but more exposed Parbold has to give weight all round and another Hannon colt, Shifting Power, has scope for plenty of improvement.
4.05 Newmarket (Nell Gwyn Stakes) Just one winner and a second from this have taken the 1,000 Guineas in the decade, with turn-ups at 10-1, 14-1 and 28-1 in the last three seasons suggesting that the market may not be helpful.
But it was the best guide to the first fillies’ trial, the Fred Darling, last week when gambled-on J Wonder defeated the Cheveley Park flop, Joyeuse, who had herself beaten Dorothy B a neck at Salisbury in September.
A Marco Botti filly was made favourite on Saturday, splitting J Wonder and Joyeuse, which suggests that we should pay particular attention to his pair, Euro Charline and Pelerin.
Another young trainer, Charlie Appleby, also has two for Godolphin in this, Majeyda and Folk Melody, who caught my eye at Newmarket last July, form boosted by the runner-up Enraptured.
Since Enraptured is trained by John Gosden that takes us back to Dorothy B, but she was another flop in the Cheveley Park, alongside Joyeuse.
The Cheveley Park runner-up was Princess Noor, who had beaten Queen Catrine and Along Again at Ascot in July, both runners today.
If you put a slide-rule on all that collateral two-year-old form, there wasn’t more than a pound or two among the lot of them, inluding Sandiva, only a neck in front of Joyeuse at Royal Ascot.
VERDICT: All depends which pretty baby has grown into a Nell Gwyn with power in her chest and hindquarters, but I’ll try a bit of Folk Melody win and place.
4.40 Newmarket (Feilden Stakes) Mark Johnston (Somewhat) likes to steal this for Yorkshire from under the nose of the local HQ trainers. His form figures in the race are 1101314 since 2004.
Intello won it last year on the way to taking the French Derby. This time the home team faces an Irish raid from Ger Lyons’ Obliterator, half-brother to Curragh 1,000 Guineas winner, Just The Judge.
VERDICT: Obliterator at 5.0 on BETDAQ but a wary eye on Mark Johnston, so Somewhat of a stakes saver!
5.10 Newmarket Back to where I came in, John Gosden is 11022 in this, since it was first run in this form in 2008, and his Sea The Stars colt, Munjaz, out of a Zafonic mare, is one of the more interesting runners of the day on breeding.
William Haggas and Brian Meehan, who won the Fred Darling, have well-bred sorts in Wrangler and Mustadaam.
VERDICT: Today’s strategy is to bet on the Hannon yard so that I make a profit if just one of his three wins. Now I’m going to mark down Nunjaz as my stakes saver, if the banker loses, both being trained by John Gosden.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except the banker)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) PROVIDENT SPIRIT (1.45 Newmarket), if lose 11pts win MUNJAZ (5.10 Newmarket)
BET 6.6pts win FLYBALL (2.20 Newmarket)
BET 2.3pts win and place BON VOYAGE (2.55 Newmarket)
BET 11pts win SHIFTING POWER (3.30 Newmarket)
BET 2.3pts win and place FOLK MELODY (4.05 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win OBLITERATOR and 1pt win (stakes saver) SOMEWHAT (4.40 Newmarket)
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1.45 Newmarket The market has got this one right five times in 10 years but, whatever happens, don’t follow the winner afterwards: the last five successful in this have run a total of 57 times since, and won just three modest races.
Spirit Of Xian, from a yard which will have around 120 two-year-old winners this season, increased in value six-fold between foal and yearling prices.
Tarando quadrupled in value and has a very speedy pedigree. No Delusion was the most expensive yearling in the race by a very long way. Watch the market!
2.20 Newmarket (Wood Ditton Stakes) If you want horses to follow, this is your race: nine future winners came from the first eight home last season, and no fewer than 14 the year before.
True Story turned up out of the blue to impress himself on the Derby market yesterday; this could only happen here with Famous Kid, sole Epsom entry in the race.
But the stable in form is John Gosden’s and, of his three runners, Fallen In Line and Prince Of Stars are very well bred for a race like this. Watching brief.
2.55 Newmarket It’s all looked so easy in the five years of this race, with money pouring in for hot favourites. Result: all stuffed, all bar one failing even to reach the frame. But I’m going to defy that stat today.
The winners were trained by the usual suspects – Gosden, Hannon, Johnston – but they are joined this year by Aidan O’Brien, with his only runner at this two-day meeting.
In fact, Guineas and Derby entry Johan Strauss, given an initial outing at Leopardstown last week, is Ballydoyle’s first attack on an English prize this year for a yard just striking form, with three winners in the last week.
Will this Racing Post Trophy runner-up break the hoodoo on favourites in this race today? One likely danger, Sudden Wonder, as low as 20-1 for the Derby, is from a stable currently missing strike badly.
Charlie Appleby’s last two favourites and last four runners at 3-1 or less have all lost. Horses are being placed at a short price without winning.
Observational and Seagull Star (by Sea The Stars out of a Montjeu mare) have several big-time entries, including the Derby. Both their stables are winning races.
Johan Strauss is almost a stone clear of these on what we know, in a race Aidan O’Brien has tried before and failed.
But Together, his 15-8 favourite in 2011, hadn’t had a run, and – though only fifth in this – was narrowly beaten in the 1,000 Guineas in her very next race. So he’s aiming at this from his top drawer.
VERDICT: I’m assuming two standout maximum-stakes bets today – Johan Strauss (at 3.0 on BETDAQ this morning) is one of them – with one winner keeping me right, but two making it a very profitable day.
3.30 Newmarket (Abernant Stakes) I put the entire, Es Que Love, in my early-birds list because he’s won in April, first time in England, for the last two years. That was for Mark Johnston.
Clive Cox probably has the same schedule for this ‘thinker’ (perhaps for the very reason that he is an entire), knowing he has managed to ‘get beat’ 16 times after his Spring 2013 win, and 10 times after April in 2012.
The top-rated pair, Tropics and Aljamaaheer, both won second time of asking last season. Tropics has had a run back, but has to carry a Group-race penalty for Ascot in October.
He and Heaven’s Guest were a long way behind Dinkum Diamond at Doncaster but were being aimed at today’s race. The better ground should help them, and the word is that Tropics will be targeting the Diamond Jubilee this year.
This is a bit short for Aljamaaheer, who is no doubt being aimed at the Lockinge, in which he was placed last year before another fine effort, second in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.
Hamza also won his second race of last season. The Abbaye third ran a fine trial for this, with a good run in the Al Quoz sprint at Meydan, and has scored in April or May three years running.
VERDICT: The 4lb Hamza gets from Tropics could be decisive. He won here at the Guineas meeting last year but aims higher this season, with the Duke Of York on the Knavesmire (Group 2) as his next stop.
It will be interesting to see what Clive Cox can make of Es Que Love. When I put him in my early-birds list, I had no idea he would attempt the big leap back into the Pattern.
He failed his transition to Group racing at the backend of 2012, but his new yard has a knack with sprinters, and this race has produced shocks before now.
4.05 Newmarket (Craven Stakes) Toormore, one of the 2,000 Guineas market rivals to Kingman, has frightened off most of these. He’s 11lb clear of anything else in this depleted field on what we know.
The Craven has proved a poor Classic guide, including for Toormore’s stablemates, Trumpet Major and Toronado, who have set Team Hannon up for a hat-trick here, but were both only fourth in the 2,000.
Delegator (2009), who went on to finish second to Sea The Stars in the Guineas, was the best product of this race since Haafhd did the Craven-2,000 double in 2004.
The main threat to Toormore here is Be Ready, with Godolphin having produced a ‘live one’ for the Derby in True Story yesterday.
Maybe it’s a coincidence that Barley Mow, the horse Be Ready beat to break his maiden in a Listed in September, was nearly 14 lengths behind True Story yesterday, just in front of Somewhat, the colt that beat Be Ready on his debut at Newbury in August.
Coincidence with one, perhaps. But for the two to finish virtually alongside, putting down the form of Be Ready, is as good a collateral shot that we’ll get at this race, or any race come to that.
VERDICT: On what we know, confirmed by yesterday’s results, Be Ready has to improve a stone and Toormore stand still if Godolphin is to pull off a Classics-trial double in two days.
I’m on Johann Strauss to maximum stakes and I shall have the same bet on Toormore. One winner and I’m scarcely damaged. Two and I’m waltzing to Strauss and looking to more!
‘More’ could come in the shape of Just The Judge in the Earl of Sefton. She’s a big price for what she’s done, and pays for one banker should one lose.
It’s always difficult early season on the flat but my cover strategy paid off yesterday, so i’ll try this insurance idea today.
4.40 Newmarket (Earl Of Sefton Stakes) Despite small fields, favourites have had a stinking run, since punters got it right with an almighty plunge on a French raider seven years ago.
Fencing has struggled to get Group status and let me down when just failing to get up at Doncaster in a Listed on the soft, though John Gosden hinted then that he had today in mind and his stable has won this twice in five seasons.
French Navy is just in front of Fencing in the ratings; at least he can boast a couple of Group-3 wins. Danadana is a similar level but penalised for it. Mull Of Killough won last year and has been primed again but this looks stronger.
Just The Judge’s form tailed off in her second season, after her 1,000 Guineas second and Coronation Stakes third. But she goes extremely well fresh and has a handy fillies’ allowance.
VERDICT: Charles Hills must be looking forward to a good season with Just The Judge (4.8 on BETDAQ this morning), who started early and at the highest level last term. I find her underrated alongside these older animals.
5.10 Newmarket The big stables contain the mediocre as well as Classic contenders and, like the first race, recent winners of this have done ‘nothing’ afterwards.
In the last four years, they have managed only one low-grade AW success since. Sir Michael Stoute, who runs Executrix and Ramshackle, has won it three times in the decade, yet the pair are 16.0 and 18.5 respectively this morning on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except bankers)
BANKER: BET 20pts win JOHANN STRAUSS (2.55 Newmarket)
BET 5.5pts win HAMZA, and 1.5pts win and place ES QUE LOVE (3.30 Newmarket)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) TOORMORE (4.05 Newmarket)
BET 5pts win JUST THE JUDGE (4.40 Newmarket)
BET 1.3pts win and place (Outsiders Of The Day) EXECUTRIX and 1.1pts win and place RAMSHACKLE (5.10 Newmarket)
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What are the betting angles on this £1m Good Friday? You have exposed horses at the end of their autumn-winter AW season, racing for the most part (not the opener) at level weights.
So we should be looking at the ratings but particularly for lightly-raced contenders saved up from their qualifiers. Winners at two or three coming to this as three and four year olds should show improvement, some markedly.
1.45 Lingfield They’ve stolen the start of the Flat, with this apprentice handicap. Please restore it to Doncaster and give the lads their ‘champion for a race’ opening day.
If you back the jockey in this, you are on Honoured and Oisin Murphy. If you back the horse, Asia Minor should give you a good run. I don’t bet in apprentice races.
2.20 Lingfield This is a class-4 race posing as a class-2. All bar five of these have won only in class 5 or 6. Class-four winners are Burren View Lady (but only at 6f), Glastonberry, Interception (also 6f), High Time Too and Living The Life.
Living The Life, whose future is in America, and High Time Too both drop back from success at a mile, and a strongly-run race will suit High Time Too.
Michael Bell has a high percentage strike-rate and lightly-raced Fashion Line travels well; her prep races and drop back in trip here suggest this has been the target all along, though she’s not ideally drawn.
2.55 Lingfield A much better championship decider with five already having won in class 2: Ertijaal (rated 100), American Hope (99), Steventon Star (97), Complicit (95), and Alutiq (95).
Alutiq impressed me in a Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq race at Kempton in January but was swamped, only seventh, in the Lingfield Spring Cup.
The first four home that day meet again in this three-year-old championship: Ertijaal, who got within a neck of Toormore last season, came out on top of American Hope and Major Crispies, despite having to be used up from a bad draw. He hasn’t been seen since.
The fourth horse, Sir Robert Cheval, who puts Complicit in this picture on their one-two over CD in November, looked a bit unlucky, ‘denied a clear run’ under Adam Kirby.
Kirby now switches to the same stable’s 6f-winner Captain Secret – on whom he’s won twice – with Ryan Moore on ‘Sir Robert’.
Like Ertijaal, Complicit has been saved up for this, after going on to Deauville in December and winning on the Fibresand there.
Passing Star drops back from a front-running double over a mile at Kempton and punters must bet whether Ertijaal, Complict and Sir Robert Cheval can catch him.
3.30 Lingfield: Litigant got up close home in his CD qualifier for this, but fourth, fifth and eighth take him on again, among them Castilo Del Diablo (5th), who afterwards got much closer to the second horse when they were rematched at Kempton.
A line through Ted Spread suggests that Litigant and ‘Castilo’ (who might be a bit of a Diablo) will both beat Arch Villain and Communicator, and others in the race have to prove themselves at the trip.
4.05 Lingfield Valbchek impressed in a November qualifier and has been saved up for this final but, while he should again beat the fourth horse – Hawkeyethenoo – the third, Lancelot Du Lac, is 4lb better for less than two lengths and was given a lot to do that day.
But ‘Lancelot’ was beaten behind Trinityelitedotcom at Kempton recently, albeit giving the winner 8lb, and – along with Valbcheck – they all come out very close together now.
Stepper Point showed the benefit of his gelding op with a powerful success over the minimum on today’s course and may now be capable of stepping up a furlong.
Finding even more collateral form is easy among these fast-track qualifiers, and I give you a February heat over CD, in which Tarooq beat Rivellino a head, with Iptisam fourth
Iptisam has finished about the same distance behind both Tarooq and Stepper Point but was receiving weight from ‘Stepper’, which Points clearly to who is in the driving seat with all those I’ve mentioned as passengers if, as appears, Stepper Point can get the extra furlong.
The official handicapper has no doubt: he’s got Stepper Point on 112, a clear 7lb in front of Tarooq, but I still feel that Valbchek has been trained for the race.
4.40 Lingfield (Ladbrokes AW Mile Championship) Moonday Sun was knocked out of contention in the Newbury Spring Cup and is down in trip to the CD of his narrow defeat in another Ladbrokes Handicap in February.
The grey was the ‘moral’ that day, giving weight to the winner and he (he’s an entire) has been most consistent since.
The official handicapper thinks the winner of this is Chookie Royale after his Wolverhampton Listed success. He certainly has a length or so on Sirius Prospect on a line through Bertiewittle.
But, collaterally through the same horse, he is about the same animal as Grey Mirage, and Chookie Royale and Captain Cat are also equals if earlier Kempton form can be believed.
Yes, it’s another very close race, perhaps the closest of all today, with ratings of 106, 105, 103 (twice), 102 (twice) and 100 chasing after ‘Chookie’.
I had a shock result all lined up here on this rare occasion that a Group-2 and 3 winner in the field is giving weight away! But Highland Knight needs to lead and stall 11 hasn’t given him the advantage I wanted.
The one who’s got the break is Anaconda from gate two. He set them alight from the one stall in the Winter Derby trial (1m 2f), and the fourth horse just in front of him at the finish went on to win the Derby itself (Anaconda badly drawn in 11).
At today’s trip, it seems to be a quesiton of whether Captain Cat can catch Anaconda in the run to the line.
5.20 Lingfield The 1-2-4 in the Winter Derby, Robin Hoods Bay, Aussie Reigns and Dick Doughtywylie, renew rivalry here but the favourite that day, Grandeur, was inconvenienced, out wide in stall 11.
This time around, front-runner Dick Doughtywylie, who swaps stall 11 for 6, and Grandeur – from 14 he is now in 2 – have the advantage, with Aussie Reigns pushed out wide to 11 (from 4).
Robin Hood’s Bay remains a threat in 7 but was well beaten by Grandeur in the Derby Trial in February, albeit off a slower pace. The handicapper has no doubt, with Grandeur 8lb clear.
With tongue in cheek, let me tell you that Dick Doughtywylie was beaten only a few lengths by Guineas favourite, Kingman, the other day.
‘Dick’ is lead horse to Kingman and that ‘race’ was on the gallops. Today is only his second appearance on a racetrack in four months, his first being that Winter Derby fourth from a bad draw.
Sometimes the lead to a fine Group-winning galloper like Kingman can take it out of a horse but John Gosden speaks fondly of him and reckons he can do well in his own right.
A measure of Dick’s situation here is that he was beaten only a length by Aussie Reigns, giving 6lb over 1m 4f, with Cheshire Oaks winner, Banoffee, in third. That was just three starts ago.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 4.5pts win FASHION LINE and 3.2pts win HIGH TIME TOO (2.20 Lingfield)
BET 1.5pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) COMPLICIT and 3pts win (stakes saver) ERTIJAAL (2.55 Lingfield)
BET 8.6pts win (nap) LITIGANT (3.30 Lingfield)
BET 3.5pts win STEPPER POINT and 3pts win VALBCHEK (4.05 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win CAPTAIN CAT and 1.8pts win and place ANACONDA (4.40 Lingfield)
BET 8.5pts win GRANDEUR and 2pts win and place DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE (5.20 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double Ertijaal (2.55 Lingfield) and Litigant (3.30 Lingfield)
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2.05 Haydock Tricky one. Cloudy Too has to give weight all round and has never scored without ‘soft’ in the going return. David Pipe dropped out of form after Cheltenham and his Shotavodka, along with Niceonefrankie, haven’t won this far.
Bold Chief has yet to be successful outside novice-chase company, although he’s nine years old now. Beforeall is also a novice but only six and admirably consistent for a stable in good form. However, both are front-runners and something’s gotta give!
The one I like is Our Mick, seemingly returned to form at Aintree. Donald McCain – seven winners in the last week – has booked Richard Johnson, with Our Mick now 11lb lower than when second at the Cheltenham Festival last year.
2.40 Haydock (Grassroots Final) Lightly-raced Heath Hunter looked useful at Ascot but I can’t back a Pipe horse, unless ‘Vodka’ gave them a Shot in the arm earlier in the day.
Richard Johnson, who has had back-to-back wins on Generous Ransom, switches to Lord Protector, unexposed at today’s trip, but No No Mac – behind him when giving 10lb at Sandown in December – has won twice since and is giving away only a pound today at the revised terms over a trip he prefers.
The 12.0 on BETDAQ this morning is a yes-yes about No No, who can be expected to improve again at the age of five, though his yard could be in a better form.
Getabuzz and Keel Haul are also young horses but are up in the ratings by 24lb and 18lb respectively.
2.55 Kempton (Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes) Top-rated now in the absence of Zibelina, the French 1,000 Guineas fourth Zurigha, who won a Listed late in the season, will be well fancied here.
Auction has been working well at home for this and was big at 10.5, but was well behind Zibelina at Ascot last July.
And, though only a handicap winner, Soviet Song’s sister, Ribbons, a Coronation Stakes entry, was an immature juvenile, put away at three after failing at Listed level. She could take a step forward this term.
Magic Of Reality is also a handicapper but there is no telling what ‘magic’ the hood can do for this Niarchos filly.
3.15 Haydock Jonjo O’Neill has returned to form this week and his BETDAQ Silver Bowl winner at Kempton, Lost Legend, is suited by the Spring ground.
His Topham run over the big National fences was an experiment, and I take him to bounce back here off a magnificent 18.0 BETDAQ offer this morning.
Bincombe has scored back to back in very small fields and it’s cost him a 16lb rise, though that was needed to get into a contest like this and he jumps brilliantly: 7.8 this morning.
Hollow Blue Sky also has to raise his game (from class 4) but both are young horses at the right end of the handicap.
King Massini couldn’t carry his double at Cheltenham and Ludlow forward to the festival with 17lb more in the saddle and fell early on, unfancied at 16-1.
Midnight Sail has a lot on for an 11-year-old with a big weight, trying to follow up against the young brigade but is priced accordingly at 12.5 as I write.
You could make a case for Frontier Spirit, a huge 25lb less than when third in this race last year, but Sam Twiston-Davies prefers Hollow Blue Sky of three from his father’s yard.
3.30 Kempton Loving Spirit has some top-class place form among his 20 races since his sole success, a winning debut in October, 2010, but there must be a quirk or two that stops him winning.
Frasers Hill is very lightly raced and being backed on potential and on the name of his trainer. So I shall punt – for recompense to the royal purse for Carlton House’s defeat – Sea Shanty (6.6 on BETDAQ as I write) as a winner first time out last season.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 3.4pts win OUR MICK (2.05 Haydock)
BET 1.8pts win and place NO NO MAC (2.40 Haydock)
BET 4pts win RIBBONS (2.55 Kempton)
BET 3pts win BINCOMBE, and 1.2pts win and place LOST LEGEND (3.15 Haydock)
BET 3.5pts win (nap) SEA SHANTY (3.30 Kempton)
BET 3pts win MARCH (7.00 Bath)
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3.35 Musselburgh Gold Cup Every track wants to run a gold cup and there are two today, this one on the Flat in Scotland (firmish ground) and one over the jumps in Ireland (getting that way in the sunshine).
King Of The Picts has taken on the best of his age over the sticks, including Josses Hill and Vautour. It’s a question of whether he is fast enough for these on the Flat.
He is a stone and a half in front of Bright Abbey under NH Rules but neither would beat Caldeonia at these weights. And that one is slow!
Dr Irv has scored over CD but is a summer horse on all known form, though keep an eye on the market: the stable wins when the money’s down.
Entihaa, Corton Lad and High Office have all been at their best up to a mile and a half, and Pass Muster (8.2 on BETDAQ this morning) is the one for me.
‘Muster’ is mustard when there’s a strong gallop on and he’s won over hurdles, on the Flat and in an NH bumper. Unsited by the track last time at Fakenham, but a winner and a second at Musselburgh.
3.55 Plumpton (Sussex Champion Hurdle) And every course wants its own champion hurdle, too. The inaugural race last year went to a Graded performer, which applies to Local Hero, Fergall, Dildar and Dan Breen, but he’s nine now and his stable is out of form.
There’s not much between Fergall and Local Hero on a line through Clever Cookie. Saint Jerome is on a roll but has to leap two grades out of novice company here, and is up 18lb inside a month.
Dildar is a ‘glass’ horse, having only his fourth race inside two years. Ted Spread has been a disappointment for two years and more now. The Green Ogre is only four and still a maiden.
The plot horse has to be Specialagent Alfie (9.0 on BETDAQ), a good-ground winner who was second in this race last year.
3.40 Fairyhouse (Easter Festival Hurdle) Eight winners out of 10 have come from the bottom third of the handicap, seven out of 10 under the age of eight. Four of the last five were rated between 120 and 126.
Stocktons Wing, off a featherweight 121 (taking account of Ger Fox’s claim), has 11lb less than when winning a Grade 2 over CD a year ago.
He was only 11-1 SP for Our Conor’s Triumph Hurdle and – by the same sire, Jeremy – looks saved up for this, on behalf of owner J P McManus.
J P has a top-of-the-ground performer in Coffee – too small to cope with the mud – sent over by Jonjo O’Neill, his only runner today ahead of Shutthefrontdoor and Alfie Sherrin in tomorrow’s Irish Grand National.
There’s not much between Willie Mullins’ claimed-off Midnight Game and Sailors Warn (needs plenty of cut) on a line through Joxer, who is hooded for the first time.
Midnight Game runs for Gigginstown, whose other contender, Ally Cascade, has plenty of weight for this but is very lightly raced classy individual, with ‘disguised’ form recently (‘burly’, not ready for November run; then raced over a trip too far in the Tara Hurdle but ‘travelled like the winner most of the journey; his jumping was particularly good’ quote unquote Racing Post form).
Mullins has three other runners, all of them – Passage Vendome (will appreciate the better ground), plus the youngsters Daneking and Bally Longford – strategically placed below the 11st barrier.
Daneking is already hooded but still tends to run a bit freely Passage Vendome is a 10lb better chaser; Bally Longford has been saved for the better ground.
In fact, Mullins is more miss than hit in this race, with returns in the last five seasons of 3/6/10-2/4/5/8-12/8-1-13, just the one winner.
VERDICT: This could be an old-firm battle between Gigginstown and McManus. Ally Cascade (14.0 on BETDAQ as I write), two from two on today’s course, and who ran second to Jezki as a juvenile, is the pick of the top half of the handicap.
Lurking in the bottom half, where the winner usually comes from, Stocktons Wing (20.0), second to Our Conor in his younger days, has a featherweight if we alllow Ger Fox full value for his claim.
4.30 Cork (Imperial Call Chase) Toner D’Oudairies beat last year’s winner of this (Roi Du Mee) when they met in October, with Noble Prince well in rear. The rest of today’s field is a stone off the market leaders.
4.40 Fairyhouse Gold Cup You can’t split Bright New Dawn and Mozoltov on a line through Mallowney (runs in the next race) but the sunshine may do so. Mozoltov has won only on soft-heavy.
Ballycasey may be too good for the Gigginstown pair. He seems to act on any ground and deserves top rating here after his fourth in the RSA at Cheltenham; now back to his best trip.
The handicapper says Ballycasey by 4lb over Rebel Fitz, five in a row last year and the fresh horse, back to the chase after a prep win over hurdles at Cork. It’s a hard call.
5.10 Fairyhouse (Coolmore Stud Novice Chase) Ballycasey, and Mozoltov have both been taken on by Ned Buntline, who ran second in the good-ground Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival, the winner, Savello, being given a 152 rating.
Whether the handicapper was right to keep ‘Ned’ down on 140 (after all, he was hooded first time) is more than academic for this, since only one other here is regarded as better than 138.
That one, Road To Riches, has only ever performed well on soft-heavy ground. That also applies to Mallowney, who beat Ned Buntline a couple of lengths on the soft at Navan in January (Gilanbrook another six lengths third) but was receiving 6lb.
The Mozoltov run suggests that ‘Ned’ is, strictly (though off sync timewise), 142, while his Ballycasey effort would make him 146. As a six-year-old, he is entitled to improve on those, any time now.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except multiples)
BET 2.7pts win PASS MUSTER (3.35 Musselburgh)
BET 1.5pts win and place ALLY CASCADE, and 1pt win and place STOCKTONS WINGS (3.40 Fairyhouse)
BET 3.3pts win (nap) SPECIALAGENT ALFIE (3.55 Plumpton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt mixed trebles and 1pt win acca SPECIALAGENT ALFIE (3.55 Plumpton), TONER D’OUDAIRIES (4.30 Cork), BALLYCASEY (4.40 Fairyhouse) and NED BUNTLINE (5.10 Fairyhouse)
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It’s not been hard to weigh up the winner. All 13 finishers in the Irish Grand National (5.00 Fairyhouse) last year carried 10st 9lb or less. The previous year it was the first nine. In 2011, the first 10. And so on for 14 years now.
Before that the barrier was broken by Bobbyjo and Commanche Court. Bobbyjo beat an Aintree Grand National winner and a Sandown Gold Cup winner into the places. It’s not that classy today.
And in Commanche Court’s year, the first five favourites were racing off 10st 13lb or higher, and the lightweights were mostly ‘rags’. Again, not so today.
The ground will help those who’d normally have just a few pounds too much, and another essential factor is that they come to this lightly raced in their year.
Shutthefrontdoor has had just the one run in 2014 – in a championship four-miler at Cheltenham – and has Barry Geraghty in the saddle.
Golden Wonder (28.0 on BETDAQ this morning), whose had this as his target ever since he won at Galway, and back-to-form Rich Revival tick all the boxes but, close up to them in my ABC Guide, are Gallant Oscar and Goonyella.
Galant Oscar made mincemeat of them in the Leinster National but the worry is the ground – he’s won only on soft – and the form of that race gives him something to find with Rich Revival.
Goonyella has a fine chance on his fifth in the Troytown but needs soft ground and, on the lines he represents through hunter-chase form, Tammys Hill would have won that Troytown.
Has Tammy recovered from his exertions in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham? If so, he’s a handicap snip, and will appreicate the sound surface.
ABCDE Golden Wonder
Won the beginners’ chase at Galway on heavy, showing ‘substantial reserves of stamina’ (Racing Post).
‘He’s going to be an out-and-out stayer.’
The second horse home that day won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival and the third has scored twice since. All questions have been answered, including the ground, though he is a little bit inexperienced.
ABCDE Rich Revival
Won Fairyhouse Beginners’ Chase followed by the Leinster National last Spring. Lost his way after, including pulled up this race a year ago, but encouraging over hurdles recently. Small stable in good form but the ground is a worry.
ABCD Gallant Oscar
This year’s Leinster National winner with some ‘flawless jumping’, beating Saoirse Dun, Los Amigos and Folsom Blue ‘without having to get serious’.
Though hiked 13lb for his trouble – 9lb worse with Saiorse Dun, 10lb with Los Amigos and 12lb with Folsom Blue – that gets him into this with a racing weight, though the form doesn’t work out as high class.
ABCD Goonyella
Hunter-chaser at only five and six years old, primed for this race last year but saddle slipped (trainer Dreaper blamed himself) and bounced straight back to win at the Punchestown Festival.
Fair runs when still only six in autumn-winter Troytown and Welsh Grand National before back to form in hurdles prep for this on the last day. But ground is a big worry.
ABCD Heaney
Back-to-back novice-chase wins in the late summer but rested after only fair efforts in Munster National (fifth) and Power Chase.
ABCD Sraid Padraig
Sixth last year’s Leinster National but big improvement on better ground, dropped back to 2m 1f, to beat Cause Of Causes at Fairyhouse in November with ‘exceptional jumping’ . Only eighth at Cheltenham (Byrne Group Plate) and doubt about the trip.
ABCE Los Amigos (NON RUNNER)
Goonyella’s stablemate, broke his duck on this course in November and excellent second this year in Thyestes Chase (‘staying on; very safe jumping’) and third Leinster National (‘shade one-paced’) behind easy winner Gallant Oscar and 10lb better off now.
ABDE Alfie Sherrin
Cheltenham Festival winner on good ground before third in this Irish National (2012). Fourth in Kim Muir this time around at Cheltenham and dropped 7lb after only fair efforts since.
A hard horse to keep right, with only 20 Rules races for an 11 year-old, and just two successes in more than four years.
ABDE Jamsie Hall
Another 11-year-old, this time with a lot of steeplechase miles on the clock and just a veterans’ win at Aintree since June, 2012.
ABD Daring Article
Punchestown Chase winner (heavy) at last Spring’s festival when only seven and followed up there in December before narrow defeat in the Leopardstown Chase in January and fourth here in another Graded race since. Acts on any going.
ABD Toon River
Third to Roi Du Mee in the Imperial Call Chase at Cork, this time last year, and back to form in first-time hood in beginners’ chase at Gowran last month. Front-runner.
AB Saoirse Dun
Always thereabouts last Spring, third to Rich Revival in the Foxrock, second novice-chase final at Navan and Grade A at the Punchestown Festival. Runner-up Leinster National last month (see Gallant Oscar)
ACDE Folsom Blue
Won Punchestown Grand National Trial ‘like an old hand’ on heavy ground but only fourth at revised weights, giving more than a stone to the winner, Gallant Oscar, in the Leinster National.
ACDE The Westener Boy
Fell when joint favourite for the Thyestes Chase and, after a year off, returned to form only recently with an eye-catching hurdles prep for this.
AC Clar Na Mionn
In the frame in six Graded novice chases, travelling and jumping well and suggesting a stamina test is needed.
ADE Rogue Angel
Beat subsequent dual winner (but out of form) Touch The Eden in first-time blinkers, and better than bare form, seventh in NH Chase at Cheltenham (4m). But see Touch Of Eden.
ADE Tammys Hill
Hunter-chaser who won the Foxhunter at Cheltenham over the Grand National fences after third here at Fairyhouse to Aintree Fox Hunters’ winner, Warne. Needs a test of stamina but has never been seen in conditions races or handicaps.
A Mullaghjanoe River
Still only six and a lazy horse at home, so blinkered first time now and maybe one for another year, aged only six.
BCDE Home Farm
Third in this race last year (not a strong renewal) off 5lb lower mark when a novice running in his first handicap. Decent efforts in Graded races since, but off colour and missed the Aintree Grand National. Can he bounce back?
BCDE My Murphy
Won his first chase on today’s course and won Navan novice-chase final, giving lumps of weight to the placed horses when looking ‘every inch an Irish National horse’, according to the form book.
There are two snags: the ground has dried up on him and he must race on the outside or from the front, as he has to see daylight and won’t jump with horses in front of him.
BCDE Touch The Eden
Turned round 11-lengths December deafet by Rogue’s Angel (only fourth), when beating Letter Of Credit and Folson Blue at Limerick. But likes his own way up front.
BCD Cantlow
Good run of form up to 20f (second Grade 3) until fell behind Holywell at Cheltenham and needed hurdles confidence booster at Aintree,. Doubt about this trip.
BCD Shutthefrontdoor
Six out of seven bumpers and hurdles, and fourth 2013 Pertemps Final at Cheltenham. Back in the picture there after breathing op when close sixth (jumping errors) in 4m NH Chase at the festival.
BE Cause Of Causes
Second in three consecutive Graded races, including Power Chase and Kim Muir, costing him 17lb rise and example of his task is his 10lb worse with Sraid Padraig though beaten a nose by him on this course in November.
B Pendra
J P McManus owned noice-chase third at Cheltenham Festival. Doubt about this trip.
C Make A Track
Grade B chase winner at Limerick who could improve for the marathon distance.
DE Away We Go
5lb higher than when second in this last year before third in Sandown Gold Cup, but not seen since and 11-years-old now.
DE Lion Na Bearnai
Won this race in 2012 off 5lb lower mark but moderate success since in small-field race back on this course and not suited to the fences in the Grand National. He’s 12 now.
D Letter of Credit
Consistent in novice chases, including Graded second to Touch The Eden (allowed 4lb for two and a half lengths). First-time hooded as he doesn’t like other horses around him.
E Oscars Well
Placed in top-class novice events last year including Leopardstown Arkle and Punchestown Ryanair. Fell Tramore in January and modest hurdles efforts since.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except lays)
LAY 10pts ABSEIL (1.50 Yarmouth)
BET 4pts win MOLLY’S A DIVA (2.05 Chepstow)
BET 10pts win (nap) TOKYO JAVILEX (2.40 Chepstow)
BET 2.5pts win SURROUND SURROUND (3.55 Redcar)
LAY 10pts each EASTER SKY, LEGAL WAVES (4.30 Redcar)
BET 1.5pts win and place on each SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR and TAMMYS HILL, and 0.7pts win and place GOLDEN WONDER (5.00 Fairyhouse)
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The National heroes ride again. Jamie Moore (Scottish Grand National) and Barry Geraghty (Irish National yesterday) can lift the Easter-hangover Tuesday cards at Kelso and Ludlow. And A P McCoy is back at Wetherby.
KELSO:
Jamie Moore, who took Scotland’s biggest prize when getting Al Co up to land the Ayr National, returns to Scotland this afternoon.
Brian Ellison has had an appalling run of form and Jamie, as a change of jockey, may wake up his Grandiloquent (29.0 in the 1.45) and the now well handicapped Mubrook (4.25).
But the one I like is Mandarin Sunset (2.15) for James Ewart. He’s had only seven races in his seven years, and has to be caught fresh.
After four months off, he returns in cheekpieces with stablemate Thorlak to make sure there’s pace on. As a 20f-winning hurdler, he will need all of this 2m 5f over fences.
Doubledisdoubledat needs rain to fall in some quantity, and the jury is out on Clondaw Knight. He’s won on today’s course over 17f but is bred to get 3m though, so far, a step up in trip has not produced a result. Saver.
LUDLOW:
I felt sorry for connections of Golden Wonder after yesterday’s Irish National. He looked the winner everywhere except on the line, but Barry Geraghty made sure the line belonged to him.
Maybe not even A P McCoy – who would have ridden the winner but was on ‘holiday’ until today – could have judged the finish so well and roused Shutthefrontdoor to that final effort.
Geraghty has ridden better this year than Ruby Walsh or A P, though too much of Ruby’s time has been spent on the sidelines. Geraghty, and not forgetting Davy Russell, have seized their opportunities and stepped from the shadows of the Big Two.
Barry rides for Nicky Henderson today at Ludlow, with Call The Cops (1.55) a standout in the opener, nearly a stone clear on the ratings but giving away only half that as the penalised runner.
CD winner Magic Money comes out quickly and his third to Irving in November looks good but Russborough is still a maiden and from a stable out of form.
Call The Cops has managed to win on the soft but has always been crying out for a sound surface and, though Kim Bailey claims off Magic Money in a bid to get the edge, I think Barry Geraghty can boss this one.
WETHERBY:
The real McCoy is back, prepared to chase for minor goodies today after he could only sit and watch the big Easter egg slip from his grasp at Fairyhouse.
Rosslyn Castle (2.05) looks like one of those grinding-it-out jobs where McCoy refuses to accept his mounts quirks, and this horse has plenty.
Mailer Tree won easily yesterday but his form after a win in two senior races is pulled up and 13th. Cool Sky (3.45) can complete a McCoy double.
WOLVERHAMPTON:
The Flat has been flat all right. I hope it comes alive tomorrow, with the old Great Met and City and Suburban double of handicaps back together on the Derby-trial card at Epsom.
Meanwhile, Charlie Hills is talking up his 1,000 Guineas chance, Kiyoshi, or at least ‘my father fancies her quite strongly,’ he tells the Racing Post. Dad is sorely missed by punters everywhere, Charlie boy.
Love Excel (7.45) looks one to be on for Team Hills, returned to the track where he broke his maiden in December. As with his first run last year, he did not find Kempton to his liking, and the drop back to 7f and the Wolver track will suit.
YARMOUTH:
So there is a Flat (turf) card today! Newmarket-by-the-sea will be back to sweaters and pullovers at the start of the season of evening meetings, and nothing else easily wrapped up.
Sir Michael Stoute upset a maiden-race system of mine yesterday. No I won’t tell you what it is: I gave you two winning lays in another maiden, didn’t I!
Ryan Moore is at Yarmouth for Mairise (5.25), related to one of the trainer’s most famous of his many improvers, Notnowcato, who rose from obscurity to win the International at York.
After three quick runs, and gelded over the winter, Mairise has been working well on the Newmarket gallops and the son of Authorized will be hard to beat here.
‘Cato’ also had some quiet maidens and won first time in a handicap for the best cricketer to train horses.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points)
BET: 0.7pts win and place GRANDILOQUENT (1.45 Kelso)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) CALL THE COPS (1.55 Ludlow)
BET: 4pts win on each MANDARIN SUNSET and (saver) CLONDAW KNIGHT (2.15 Kelso)
BET: 4pts win COOL SKY (3.45 Wetherby)
BET: 7.4pts win MAIRISE (5.25 Yarmouth)
BET: 10.5pts win LOVE EXCEL (7.45 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt acca CALL THE COPS (1.55 Ludlow), ROSSLYN CASTLE (2.05 Wetherby), MAIRISE (5.25 Yarmouth) and LOVE EXCEL (7.45 Wolverhampton)
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DAY THE DERBY TRAINER REFUSED TO PAY HIS TAXI FARE
Today’s punt revives memories of my Uncle Joe. In the days of innocence, this small boy would wait on the corner of the street, a scribbled bettng-slip twisted round his invalid uncle’s piece of silver. He’d told me: ‘Give this to Teddy, the taxi-driver.’
I was never quite sure whether it was my good deed for the day or whether I was condemning Joe – and myself – to the fires of hell (my grandfather was a Methodist preacher).
In any case, I could blame Teddy, who would spot my school blazer and slow down to receive the wager on his way into town.
I was redeemed by my innocence until the day Uncle Joe thrust an extra coin and the old Sporting Life my way before asking me to repeat the errand and said: ‘Go on, pick something out for yourself!’
Always a greedy lad (why cut a cake into slices when it’s called a sandwich), I wrote out a Great Met and City And Suburban double.
Calling in on my way back from school, I was given my first taste of bottled beer, curious at the cause for celebration until Joe and Teddy burst out laughing and put a wad of pound notes in my top pocket: ‘Your two won!â€
Incidentally, that ‘devil’ Teddy became forever an angel, once a bigger mission in life revealed itself a couple of years later. He got to know a famous trainer, as his taxi-driver from the station to the races.
One day, as they arrived on the racecourse, the trainer said he had decided not to pay him any cash. Instead, leaning in and tapping the meter, he told Teddy: ‘I won’t give you a few silly coins, when you can win a fortune if you do as I tell you this afternoon.
‘Whatever you’ve made this morning, put the lot on my horse in the Derby.’ Exit Teddy’s taxi. Wheels on fire. And the rest, as they say, is history.. at 25-1.
LOOK OUT FOR A ‘RUNAWAY’ WINNER OF THE GREAT MET
1.45 Epsom Seven out of 10 winners had already raced on the Flat (turf) in their year or campaigned on AW during the winter.
Two CD winners are stablemates Diamond Charlie – has not won for getting on three years now – and Fair Value, who has raced on AW, dropping to the mark of his Epsom success in July, 2012. Diamond Charlie has Mickael Barzalona booked.
Pearl Blue will love the ground but may need the run, with Chris Wall without a winner in 2014. Peace Seeker is in form but may have to drop a few pounds, and go down in grade, to win.
Scorers on the soft include Caspian Prince, a front-runner drawn tight on the stands’ rail, making his English turf debut, and Elusivity, 18lb lower than his last success and from a stable with 20% winners this year.
VERDICT: Elusivity (5.0 on BETDAQ, as I write, despite three withdrawals), is down in the weights, loves the ground and has Jamie Spencer booked.
2.20 Epsom (Great Metropolitan Handicap) Beacon Lady won the Amateurs’ Derby here in August and Rossetti the jump-jockeys’ Derby in September.
The booking of Mickael Barzalona for Rossetti is interesting, though six-year-olds have a lean time in this against the younger horses.
Gelded over the winter, Ed Dunlop’s dual Springtime winner of 2013, Red Runaway, came straight back to score under Ryan Moore at Lingfield at the beginning of the month and he obviously wanted to keep the ride today. Mediceans get better with age.
I could not fancy Another Cocktail, Azrag, Bayan Kasirga, Aryal or Jakey in the worsening conditions this morning.
But the soft boosts the chances of Vital Evidence (fifth in the Rosebery), Dark Ruler, a winner already this season, and Da Doo Run Run, whose Manton stable sprang a suprise with J Wonder in the Fred Darling.
VERDICT: I’ll stay with Ryan Moore and Red Runaway, 2.55 on BETDAQ after four horses had come out.
Front-runner Da Doo Run Run, by a St Leger winner whose progeny do well on the soft, is better than the bare form (he was thought worth a tilt at the Queens Vase last season). Massive at 41.0.
2.50 Epsom Derby Trial Ninth and 10th. That’s the best the winner of this race has done in the Epsom Derby itself in the last decade.
It goes down instead as a ready-meal for ‘nearly horses’ trained by John Gosden (11400) and Andrew Balding (110), who’ve had the race on a plate since 2007.
Balding’s Derby entry Signposted – son of a Selkirk mare – won on heavy at Sandown in September but the Gosden pair, Marzocco and Nonno Giulio, have one run, one win each and ‘could be anything.’
Marzocco’s sire has produced Grade-1 winners in America but previous matings with Dynaformer mares have not been very productive. Nonno Giulio is a first foal, son of Halling.
Hartnell, also entered in the Derby, was third in the Group-1 Criterium De Saint-Cloud in the mud in November but had a long season for a two-year-old.
Our Chanel should improve for the trip, with trainer William Haggas currently four our of six. Trip To Paris is by a sire whose progeny do best on the soft but he needed blinkers as a two-year-old.
Moontime catches the eye on breeding, son of Sea The Stars out of Time On, a Sadlers Wells grandaughter of Time Charter. But he’s already gelded.
VERDICT: Check out the negatives: Our Chanel was also entered in a handicap this week; Moontime is a gelding; Trip To Paris needs blinkers; the Gosden pair are of doubtful pedigree.
That leaves me on Hartnell and Signposted, who has already won on the course and is from a yard which does well in this race.
3.25 Epsom (City And Suburban) Winners of this are aged four and five (9 out of 10) and usually drawn low (stalls 1 to 6 have scored seven times in nine seasons).
If not, they are able to come sweeping down the outside (two from gates 11 and 12). They should have been first or second in class 2 already (7 out of 9).
Soviet Rock won first time up last season and loves some cut in the ground because of his high knee-action. Stable in top form and he can be expected to lead.
Ebony Express likes the soft surface and has travelled south for this but he’s tried twice before to get out of class 5 and failed in class-4 races. This is two rungs higher still.
Clayton’s first run back last year was second in this race but this time around he took in a Pontefract handicap, winning well but costing his rating a 6lb rise and posing the question of whether he is capable of putting back-to-back wins together.
Stall 10 only adds to the doubt, because he likes to be with the pace and, apart from giving weight all round, may be badly positioned.
Sennockian Star, third at Pontefract that day, is well drawn and better off at the weights, though strictly not enough. Stablemate Salutation, wnner of the Rosebery at Kempton, is now on his highest mark, so being claimed off.
Tres Coronas is a stone too high but old Resurge is four times a course winner, and Weapon Of Choice is two out of three on the Downs.
Charles Camoin has also won at Epsom, has had a run back, sixth in the Newbury Spring Cup, and acts on any ground.
Hi There won first time last season and likes a deep surface but is high in the handicap, so needs to improve again. Red Avenger must have a firm surface.
VERDICT: The shape of the race seems to be decided by front-runner Soviet Rock’s favourable low draw. He could take some catching at 6.6 on BETDAQ, as I write.
Charles Camoin, at 9.4, looks badly drawn but has won here with a sweeping run down the wide outside.
THE NAP: In case I’m on another gamble, I put on record that the nap, Ut Majeur Aulmes, travelling up from Devon to Perth is around 2-1 everywhere this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 5pts win ELUSIVITY (1.45 Epsom)
BET 12pts win RED RUNAWAY and 0.5pts win and place DA DO RUN RUN (2.20 Epsom)
BET 10pts win HARTNELL and 2pts win and place SIGNPOSTED (2.50 Epsom)
BET 3.5pts win SOVIET ROCK, and 2.3pts win and place CHARLES CAMOIN (3.25 Epsom)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) UT MAJEUR AULMES (3.50 Perth)
UNCLE JOE’S DAQ DOUBLES: 4 x 1pt win doubles RED RUNAWAY and DA DO RUN RUN (2.20 Epsom) with SOVIET ROCK and CHARLES CAMOIN (3.25 Epsom)
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Jonjo has another big chance on Saturday. Irish Grand National winning training O’Neill has Twirling Magnet and Burton Port in two of the pole positions for the Sandown Gold Cup, if these stats are any guide and they stand their ground.
But top of the list is the 2013 runner-up Same Difference, who is with another master trainer of stayers, Nigel Twiston-Davies.
ABCDEFG Same Difference
Second in the race last year but the ‘moral’ winner, giving 9lb to the first horse home, beaten only two lengths.
Same Difference was still a novice at the time, coming on to this from winning the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, in which he again ran well last month. Now back to his winning weight.
ABCDEFG Twirling Magnet
Dropped below his successful mark, with top of the ground in his favour. Only seventh but a 12lb pull now on the United House Gold Cup winner, Houblon des Obeaux, though unseated at Cheltenham and fell in the Grand National.
ABCDEF Burton Port
One-time RSA and Hennessy runner-up, well touted to bounce back in the National but I could never see him coping with those big fences and I laid him. Saturday might be different.
ABCDEF Mountainous
Another who couldn’t cope with Aintree but only 4lb higher now than when winning the Welsh Grand National. All his wins have been on soft or heavy.
ABCDFG Roalco De Farges
Second in this in 2012, albeit no match for Tidal Bay, and back to form at Newbury last month. Didnt get the extra furlongs in the Scottish National.
*ABCDF Emperor’s Choice
A huge 16lb better off with Rigadin De Beauchene on their Haydock Grand National Trial one-two. But trainer Venetia Williams is out of form.
With only one winner since April 10, she’s had 27 beaten horses during that time; none of them started favourite.
ABCDF Godsmejudge
The 2013 Scottish National winner bounced back in the recent renewal, only just touched off for back-to-back wins in an Ayr thriller.
*ABCD Summery Justice
Another for Venetia Williams, he beat Burton Port in a veteran’s race on heavy at Newbury on the first day of March.
Though he is worse off with that one, the handicapper has relented by a few pounds, despite his fifth in the Scottish Grand National.
ABCEFG Rose Of The Moon
A decent novice in 2012, back to form in January but fell as a rank outside in the Grand National. Has to be fresh so maybe this race will come soon enough.
ABCFG Poungach
Reckoned a stayer in the making but reality in the last year is one win of a three-horse race at Kempton when blinkered first time.
ABCF Ardkilly Witness
The Grand National winning yard has another one of potential here. He doesn’t lose his novice certificate until the end of this month. But good second on today’s course in February and finished close up in a Grade 3 at Kempton.
ABCF Midnight Appeal
Fell, not fancied, in the Scottish Grand National and sole chase success last year at Bangor (9lb higher now).
*ABDEF Soll
Disappointed since winning on heavy at Sandown 13 months ago. Showing the one pace when 7th 2013 Grand National, 5th London National, 7th Haydock National Trial, 11th Topham.
ABDEF Spring Heeled
Second to Grand National third Double Seven in the Munster National in October, won the Kim Muir in March, with Same Difference a running-on fifth. Up 9lb for that.
*ABDEF There’s No Panic
Won the London National over this course and distance in December, which was one in the eye for those who said he didn’t stay in this Sandown Gold Cup when only sixth last year.
*ABDE Any Currency
Consistent stayer in quality cross-country races without winning, among them short-head second to Grand National runner-up, Balthazar King, in the big banks race at the Cheltenham Festival in March.
*ABDE Bradley
Three chase wins in 2012 and looked star stayer in the making, second to Monbeg Dude (3m 4f) at Cheltenham but disappointing since, though has liking for Sandown, winning Royal Artillery and Grand Military gold cups.
ABDE Carruthers
2011 Hennessy Gold Cup winner, now back to mark off which he won West Wales Grand National 14 months ago. Second in another stamina test (Warwick Classic) since.
ABDE Restless Harry
Back to form at Newbury in January and, despite severe punishment for that (hiked 19lb), beat Teaforthree and Houblon des Obeaux at Ascot the following month.
*ABDF Chartreux
He was aksed too much as a youngster, but Somerset National winner 15 months ago, and back to form on this Sandown course in early March for first success since.
ABDFG Rigadin de Beauchene
Pulled up in the Scottish National but had won the Haydock Park Grand National Trial on heavy ground and beat Godsmejudge in the Warwick Classic last year. High mark now and stable has lost scintillating winter form.
*ABDF Storm Surivivor
Another Jonjo O’Neill possible, third to Scottish National winner, Al Co, at Chepstow in October, and back to form, second in the Grimthorpe last time out.
*ADF Court By Surprise
Second in the London National over course and distance in December after third, neck in front of Storm Survivor, behind Al Co at Chepstow. Both those races on good ground.
ALSO ENGAGED: *AG No Secrets, *AFG And The Man, BCDF Bally Legend, BCF Opening Batsman, BDEF Houblon Des Obeaux, BEFG Hadrian’s Approach, BFG Bury Parade, CFG Gallant Oscar
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1pt win and place KRAKA GYM (2.30 Beverley)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) MUSIC MASTER (3.10 Warwick)
BET 5pts win HEATHFIELD (3.20 Perth)
BET 2pts win and place SILVER ROQUE (4.20 Perth)
BET 2pts win and place FEISTY DRAGON (5.45 Warwick)
BET 12pts win ONE BOY (8.15 Newcastle)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt treble KATACHENKO (2.20 Perth), MUSIC MASTER (3.10 Warwick), ONE BOY (8.15 Newcastle)
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1.40 Sandown (Esher Cup) Eight seasons out of nine, this race has a field smaller than double figures, yet the favourite has won only once.
That tells you how difficult it is for punters to assess three-year-old handicaps at this time of year. We simply don’t know (certainly about six of today’s eight starters) which horses have trained on, which haven’t. Or how much they have improved or deteriorated.
We can only begin to take stock, and say that, for instance, John Gosden has run 26 three-year-olds and won with 10 (38%) in the last fortnight, from basic maidens to Group 3.
Saeed Bin Suroor has won three from six in that time; Richard Hannon 3-24; Andrew Balding 2-14; and Mark Johnston 2-26. Clive Brittain and Eve Johnson-Houghton show nothing.
FOR Gosden’s Sacred Act is that the Oasis Dream colt has already run and won, that he likes cut in the ground (though his sire didn’t), that the stable form in the race since 2009 is 114, and the trainer thinks so highly of Sacred Act that he has entered him in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.
AGAINST is that, in consequence of winning at Nottingham, he gives weight all round today, and that horses should be judged on their second run, not their first.
First Flight won on the debut last season but was disappointing on his second run, albeit raised in class to the Acomb Stakes. Today will tell us more but we wouldn’t want to back him until we know that was only a blip.
Derby entry End Of Line, out of a Montjeu mare, was given winning education in the late season on soft, and has his second race to come today.
Cricklewood Green did his job well twice, though only at class-4 nursery level. But he is out of a half-sister to the yard’s Jersey Stakes winner, Strong Suit, and is getting 7lb from Sacred Act.
Welcome back Richard Hughes but his mount, Art Official, has been beaten three times out of three on soft ground.
VERDICT: John Gosden is seemingly so far in front of the others with his second-season animals that both Sacred Act and Western Hymn (see 3.15) have hot-favourites’ chances today.
With Sacred Act around just under 2-1, he acts (to 10 points) as a stakes saver for a 20-point-maximum banker on Western Hymn (see 3.15).
I’m for Sky Hunter in the next but he’s short, with rumours that Telescope needs the race. So I am doubling Sky Hunter with Western Hymn to try to lever a bit of extra profit.
It’s one of those days until you get to the sprint (3.50), then I have some decent odds. Sod’s law, if I tell you it’s a difficult day, I might put you off your winners. I can only speak my truth.
2.10 Sandown (Gordon Richards Stakes) Named in 1987, but why not the Sir Gordon Richards Stakes? The 26-times champion was knighted in coronation year and duly won that season’s Derby on Pinza, beating The Queen’s Aureole. No hard feelings, then.
The 2008 runner-up, Tartan Bearer, won this race in 2009 but, since then, it’s gone to horses previously placed in Group/Grade 2 or 3 at best.
Sky Hunter did better than that: he was placed in the French Derby to Arc third Intello, same trip, similar ground conditions, with Group-2 winners around him at the finish.
That makes him joint top-rated here, alongside Telescope, one-time Derby and St Leger fancy whose interrupted three-year-old career was ended with a chipped bone.
Sir Michael Stoute’s record in this – and yes, we do mention the knighthood every time – is 11140 and he is the undisputed master at improving horses after their second season.
But Sky Hunter has won first time two seasons running and Saeed Bin Suroor has suddenly taken off with current form figures of 11140121.
VERDICT: You are betting on potential with Telescope (avoided soft ground so far) against a Classic performance by Sky Hunter, who seems to act on any going.
Officially, they both rate 115 but Sir Michael Stoute has made a patchy start to the season, whereas the number-one Godolphin yard is flying. I’ll put Sky Hunter in my multiples but I will probably take Telescope out of the race.
2.45 Sandown Mile Five successful favourites, and nothing over 5-1 at SP for 10 years. Team Hannon has a recent record of 1111114.
For that reason, some will not look beyond his pair, Montiridge, a course winner on good to soft, and Trumpet Major who won this race last year, though wouldn’t want the ground any deeper.
Top Notch Tonto was third in the Champions Day mile on soft last backend but his trainer has been in modest form, with only one Flat winner from his near-40 starters in the last fortnight, and Tonto has always needed his first run back.
Garswood took the Free Handicap first time up last season, won a Group-2 at Goodwood on good to soft and was third in the Group-1 Foret, not far off a magical 10-time Group winner, Moonlight Cloud.
So it is that Montiridge and Garswood both made 11lb improvement through their second season and there should be more to come in each case.
VERDICT: Garswood, so far a 7f horse, was described as ‘still green’ when he won the Lennox (Group 2) last July. Montiridge won a Group 3 at the same meeting.
Until it is proved otherwise, I see Garswood as a big improver this term, and he’s already officially 2lb in front of Montiridge. Can he come through this mile test?
3.15 Sandown Classic Trial I have not deliberately bet at odds on in my sequence so far, thanks to BETDAQ morning offers, though three of the nine have been forced in to much shorter at SP, and SP is how I return my naps, to be fair and transparent.
Today it’s time to ‘buy money’ on one favoured in the Derby betting and with a comparatively easy task in his trial here: Western Hymn.
Trainer John Gosden has already beaten Automated (with Eagle Top). Master Carpenter and Sir Jack Layden look exposed as second class and Truth or Dare has twice fallen short against two others at the front in the Classic markets, Kingston Hill and True Story. Red Galileo was not fancied for today’s race in morning exchanges.
‘He’s got it all,’ said William Buick after winning on Western Hymn at Newbury. The look of this field suggests he doesn’t need to have it all to win his trial today.
VERDICT: John Gosden, who heads the Guineas betting with Kingman, can close down Australia and True Story in the Epsom market with Western Hymn, as he continues to dominate the home front with his three-year-olds.
I am planning on a 3-1 nap tomorrow so that, if Western Hymn can win this, I will top 400 points profit for a level 20 points on each of 13 naps. We’ll hope our chickens are golden geese but we won’t count them yet..
3.50 Sandown David O’Meara has just had six placed out of seven (four winners). He brings Penitent down from Yorkshire to try to recapture the Sandown Mile (won it in 2012) and he won’t go down without a fight.
But the one from the yard that I want to be on is Eccleston in this. He scored first time last season on the soft. Others have claims but I made a note to be on him first time and I could get 5.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (backed to win 20 points, except banker and multiples)
BET 10pts win SACRED ACT (1.40 Sandown)
BET 4.6pts win GARSWOOD (2.45 Sandown)
BANKER: BET 20 points win (nap) WESTERN HYMN (3.15 Sandown)
BET 4pts win ECCLESTON (3.50 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double SKY HUNTER (2.10 Sandown) and WESTERN HYMN (3.15 Sandown) and 1pt win treble the same two with ECCLESTON (3.50 Sandown)
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The fat lady sang weeks ago. Though it’s officially the last day of the English jumps season today, Tony McCoy’s 19th championship and Paul Nicholls’ return to the top of the trainers’ tree were certain before the overlap of the Flat (turf).
Those who can’t bear the quick scamper without the obstacles have Sandown to themselves this afternoon, then only have to wait until Wednesday, when Ireland comes to the rescue with the Punchestown Festival, a circus set to make next week’s English Classics look like a wet picnic.
2.05 Sandown Nicholls, who has no equal with young horses, was straight off the mark in this last season, and Keltus – (hampered) fourth in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham – could follow Ptit Zig this afternoon.
Connections of Baradari, just behind in fifth at Cheltenham (Raven’s Tower sixth) but a faller at Aintree, will hope for plenty more rain, which was forecast for the early hours, after yesterday’s downpour which produced shock results on the Flat course.
Baradari could reverse the placings with Keltus (040 on soft-heavy) if he gets his conditions, though Venetia Williams is on a losing run of 27 on the mainly good ground of the last fortnight, including nine pulled up.
Both Keltus and Baradari have to give lumps of weight to the maidens Ronaldinho and Dolores Delightful, but ‘Choc’ Thornton remains loyal to (good-ground) sequence horse Saint Jerome in preference to Ronaldinho.
Vodka Wells, hooded first time for his English debut, has Barry Geraghty booked and the stable has shown improved form in the last couple of days. Dispour doesn’t want it soft.
VERDICT: Like a lot of racing today, the outcome depends on just how much rain has fallen. Venetia Williams was having a great season until the ground dried out.
A downpour could put her back on song, a boost for Baradari (8.6 on BETDAQ this morning), one of few in the race to love it soft-heavy.
2.20 Haydock With his current strike-rate 7-15, Frankie Dettori has a full book of rides at Haydock today, including in this one for Marco Botti. His only ride for the in-form stable earlier this week was a winner on Tuesday.
His mount here, Don’t Bother Me (12.0 on BETDAQ this morning), drops to a handicap on his first start for Botti after nine consecutive races in the Pattern, the last five at Group level.
Bertiewittle hasn’t won since the summer of 2011 but some good efforts have put him up 24lb in the meantime. Sir Reginald beat him at Doncaster last September but is another with a poor strike-rate, his previous win coming three years ago.
David Barron has two other runners: Big Johnny D has always needed a run back and has never won above class 3; Newstead Abbey is in the hands of the handicapper after a hat-trick last Spring.
First-time hood may help Louis The Pious but he’s a 6f horse, too old to change his spots now. Glen Moss may be a few pounds too high but will appreciate the firmish ground (though forecast showers may change all that).
VERDICT: Don’t Bother Me, as low as 6-1 with Ladbrokes this morning, was massive at almost double that, 12.0 on BETDAQ. We’re talking, literally, a Group horse in a handicap.
2.50 Ripon Colonel Mak, Hillybilly Boy, Hopes N Dreams, Misplaced Fortune and Pearl Ice – drawn between 10 and 17 – all like to lead or be handy, making this a pell-mell set-to on the rails.
CD-winner Pearl Ice, who has left David Barron, is visored first time. Barron’s Colonel Mak is a once-a-year horse, claimed off because he hasn’t won this high since he was five.
Hillbilly Boy is now up 16lb since January. Nigel Tinkler (Misplaced Fortune) usually gets his winners in a heap and is currently well out of touch.
Hopes N Dreams trailed Clear Spring in the Great St Wilfrid here last summer, but Clear Spring’s yard is another treading water right now.
So I’m thinking that the dash down the rail could set it up for Body And Soul (stall 12) if she is ready to do business.
VERDICT: The worry about Body And Soul (another around 10.0 on BETDAQ) is that she’ll need the run but if, handicap master craftsman Tim Easterby is to have her ready for the Group-2 Duke Of York Stakes in a couple of weeks from now, she ought to just about eat up these handicappers, body and soul.
3.15 Sandown (Celebration Chase) I don’t begrudge ‘Grugy’ his title. It’s just that I didn’t cotton on to him soon enough.
Some horses slip by you and you have to catch up or continue opposing them, and backers of nine losing favourites out of 10 in this will say now is the time to lay the Cheltenham champion.
Sire De Grugy is seven out of eight since this time last year, when he came to the fore in this very Celebration Chase.
He arrived on the Graded scene from beginners’ and novice-chase success at Stratford, Kempton and Lingfield, and had the previous year’s winner, Sanctuaire, back in sixth. Just as Sanctuaire had slammed Somersby the year before.
Even Twist Magic failed in his back-to-back bid when I’m So Lucky stuffed him in 2010 so, while the Press is saying it’s a brave man who opposes the Sire today, the stats say it’s a fool who doesn’t.
VERDICT: This is a poor renewal and Sir De Grugy may well continue his quite-majestic champion’s run (I must be magnanimous in defeat) but the shape of the race could see Special Tiara, a front-runner who has won on heavy, try to get a long lead.
I can neither back nor lay Sire De Grugy in this graveyard for favourites, with a pittance of a return if I try to ‘buy money’ from him.
So I shall hope for a run for win-and-mainly-place money from Special Tiara, yet another around 12.0 on BETDAQ as I write. I’ll put Sire De Grugy in a couple of Daq doubles and maybe I can draw from the race twice and make it one to remember after all!
3.25 Haydock This is trappy enough, since David O’Meara (four), Richard Fahey (two) and Mark Johnston (two) have multiple declared, but showers on firmish ground could see your money slip sliding away.
If in doubt, go for a younger horse of potential for a stable in form: last year’s 27lb rise by Ingleby Angel for a yard currently with eight out of nine in the frame (four winners) and Ryan Moore booked foots the bill. Would you believe, another around 12.0 on BETDAQ.
3.30 Ripon Horses carrying 9st 3lb to 9st 11lb have won five out six, suggesting that we need to look for a bit of quality.
But Adlui, who has changed stables, won a weaker version last year and, since he’s sitting on top of this handicap, the high weights can’t be much cop.
It makes Bayan look very hard to beat, a winner from firm to heavy on the Flat and placed in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, sneakling in here off a low mark. Good spot by trainer Gordon Elliott.
3.50 SANDOWN GOLD CUP (see ABC Guide, Thursday in the Daqman Archive)
It’s going to be a sunny Sandown this afternoon, say the weathermen, but earlier rain could change the face of this race. It certainly made a difference to the Flat course yesterday.
It’s not only a concern for last year’s runner-up Same Difference, but also two other good-ground preferred, Kim Muir winner Spring Heeled and last year’s fifth, Hadrian’s Approach.
The 2010 RSA and Hennessy runner-up, Burton Port didn’t get far in the Grand National won by Dr Richard Newlan’s Pineau De Re, and he has only veterans’ race form at Doncaster and Newbury since his second in the Aintree Bowl under McCoy two years ago.
Dr Newland’s small stable has another chance with a lightweight here, the improving novice Ardkilly Witness. I would fancy him to get home on a decent surface but not if it comes up mud.
Roalco De Farges, second in this two years ago, drew the attention of the Stewards when he faded out of contention, jumping badly, though heavily backed, in the Scottish National.
The 2013 Scottish National winner, Godsmejudge, was just touched off in that recent renewal, and is actually 2lb well in here, since the race had closed before the Ayr National.
Stablemate Midnight Appeal was going well at Ayr when he came down, and ‘Choc’ Thornton prefers him again. His sire got a good stayer in Midnight Chase but Midnight Appeal’s sister, My Petra, was a two-miler, albeit a class act.
Bally Legend is another Midnight Legend. He was receiving a stone when he beat Bury Parade at Kempton (3m). Midnight Appeal (4th) and Ardkilly Witness (5th) are both better off with the first two.
But Paul Nicholls believes that Bury Parade can do better on this right-handed course, and he has chosen this race instead of another clockwise track, Punchestown, next week.
Restless Harry’s defeat of Teaforthree and Houblon des Obeaux at Ascot sounds good but that was 3m and his steeplechase form at 26-29f is 0UU0.
VERDICT: Bury Parade (10.5 on BETDAQ) who can do better on this right-handed track, and Same Difference (10.0) are my pick without much confidence, and blind to the ground.
I can’t remember such an open contest on a day when I want to celebrate Liverpool’s title and hear Mourinho saying: ‘I told you I only had a reserve team.’ I could have told him that months ago.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.6pts win BARADARI (2.05 Sandown)
BET 1.8pts win and place DON’T BOTHER ME (2.20 Haydock)
BET 2.2pts win and place BODY AND SOUL (2.50 Ripon)
BET 1.8pts win and 4.2pts place SPECIAL TIARA (3.15 Sandown)
BET 1.8pts win and place INGLEBY ANGEL (3.25 Haydock)
BET 7.5pts win (nap) BAYAN (3.30 Ripon)
BET 2pts win on each BURY PARADE and SAME DIFFERENCE (3.50 Sandown)
DAQ DOUBLE: 3pts win double SIRE DE GRUGY (3.15 Sandown) and BAYAN (3.30 Ripon), plus 2 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble the same two with DON’T BOTHER ME (2.20 Haydock)
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Truce! The layers finally got me yesterday. And today is the day of Treve, which in French means ‘truce’ or ‘respite’, and, by inference, ‘peace’.
Not for long, though. I see The Guineas meeting ahead, plus Punchestown and then Chester and York. It’s not the end of my bankers and lays sequences. It’s not even the end of the beginning.
But today is a day to watch (if you can), as Treve reappears for a season which is likely to go like this: Ganay, Royal Ascot, Vermeille, back-to-back Arcs.
After a dumb Saturday, I feel justified in a bit of trumpeting: I tipped her for the Arc. But, I have to admit, I thought she was second best to Intello.
I like doing a one-two. This one turned out to be a one-three. Maybe Treve – I think she’ll improve further – and Intello, forced to retire, showed themselves two of the best this century .
Where will Australia, Kingman, True Story, Kingston Hill and War Command figure in the Classics story of 2014? Let’s take an armchair ride through the season with BETDAQ, starting today.
1.30 Longchamp (Prix Vanteaux) Famous for the launch in her Arc year of the fabulous filly Three Troikas (1979) but no great claim to fame since, though it can be a pointer to the Prix de Diane (French Oaks).
All eyes are on the Aga Khan’s Vazira, by Sea The Stars out of a Zafonic mare, half-sister to a Prix Saint-Alary winner. She won on the debut in March but has something to prove because fillies behind her that day have been beaten.
Privet Hedge enjoyed the good ground when she won at ‘Maisons’ and only drizzle is forecast on the existing good-to-soft Paris terrain this morning.
The experienced filly is Kenzadargent, Group 3 placed twice and with a Listed run in March behind her. But Vazira should win.
2.40 Longchamp (Prix Ganay) Criquete Head(-Maarek), who trained Three Troikas and has had six more Vanteaux winners since 1979, is concerned only with the Ganay today.
And there is no ‘should’ or ‘could’ about Treve, Frankie Dettori’s meal-ticket for the season. It’s ‘will’ win! Get this one wrong, Frankie, and you may as well do a flying dismount on your nose!
Treve’s was the traditional route to the Arc for a three-year-old French filly – Diane, Vermeilles, then Longchamp – but there’s nothing in the distaff history book since Allez France to compare with the devastating turn of foot she showed in that Arc.
From an ‘impossible’ draw in 15 – they simply don’t win from the car park in the bois – she flew five lengths past the 2012 runner-up Orfevre, with French Derby winner, Intello, in third.
Another lady of the turf, Mme Barande-Barbe, is determined to take the chirp out of Criquette with her Ascot Champion Stakes winner, Cirrus Des Aigles, now eight but back to form, second in the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March.
I’m more interesting in seeing whether she can improve the five-year-old dual Group winner, Norse King, who landed a backend treble made four in a row on his seasonal debut.
There are some limitations on Norse King as a gelding, so he’ll be striking at top company when he can, and an attack on Treve is likely to be most worthwhile at the start of the season.
Smoking Sun beat Norse King, Triple Threat and Baltic Baroness in the Prix d’Harcourt earlier this month but was first-time blinkered and getting weight from the runner-up.
Dual winner of the Canadian Internaitonal, Joshua Tree, and the Ascot (fillies and mares) champion, Belle De Crecy, stablemate of Treve, complete the best Flat-race line-up this season in Europe so far.
3.15 Longchamp Ninth behind Treve in the Arc, and then second in the Prix Royal-Oak on heavy ground, Going Somewhere, has English targets – including the Gold Cup – this year, as he is a better colt on top of the ground.
3.35 Gowran Park This Listed race has thrown up a few decent fillies of its own: Ribblesdale winner Banimpire (2011) and Pretty Polly heroine Chinese White (2010).
Dermot Weld, who has a run of form in this of 121041 since 2008, saddles the only three-year-old, I’m Yours, trying to maintain the 50% record of Classic-year fillies in a race in which they get a stone concession.
Weld has scored with two three-year-olds among his five most recent starters this season, has sent out Fascinating Rock to take the Ballysax and, of course, has Epsom Derby fancy Free Eagle on the sidelines among second-season strength in depth at his Curragh stables.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win (nap) I’M YOURS (3.35 Gowran Park)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble DITTANDER (2.15 Kempton), I’M YOURS (3.35 Gowran Park) and RANJAAN (5.15 Kempton)
LONGCHAMP: 1.30 Vazira, 2.40 Treve, 3.15 Going Somewhere
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I’m Yours was a very comfortable winner at Gowran Park on Sunday landing the nap at 5/2 but for me the race of the day was in France and Treve’s unbeaten run coming to an end at the hands of Cirrus Des Aigles.
Like most punters, I was with Treve, but betting interests almost took a back seat as these two equine giants slugged it out in a pulsating finish to the Prix Ganay at Longchamp. It was quite simply a superb horse race.
After a strong early pace set by Treve’s stablemate Belle De Crecy it was left to the two market rivals to battle it out with Cirrus Des Aigles beating last year’s Arc winner by a short neck or should that be shock neck?
Running plans have yet to be finalised but with any luck we will see the pair clash again in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. With the likely better ground favouring Treve and the benefit of that run under her belt it’s hard to see how yesterday’s result won’t be reversed come June.
I’ll be looking at the Guineas in-depth this week but am currently monitoring the going and what clerk of the course Michael Prosser decides to do with the watering at Newmarket.
There was 3mm of rain on Friday and Saturday with further ‘showers’ forecast – but the taps could still be turned on today. It seems, these days, you are seriously disadvantaged if you own/train a horse that wants genuine fast ground.
A busy start to the week with six meetings in the UK and Ireland. I like a trip to Windsor on a Monday and will keep the faith with Richard Hannon. I tipped up Dittander to make a winning start for the stable in the opener at Kempton yesterday and his Dougal looks set to land the Windsor opener tonight.
Currently trading at around 1.75 and strong on the BETDAQ market – the signals look positive for the sone of Zebedee (had to be with a name like that!) and he should account for Justice Good who was backed on debut at Newbury but could only finish 6th of 13.
The three-year-old maiden at 6.05 looks to provide Man Of Harlech with an ideal opportunity to get off the mark. He ran well on debut in a Pontefract maiden last season when runner-up to Act Of Charity. The form of that race has worked out well subsequently. Man Of Harlech should be even better suited by the much softer conditions tonight and rates my as my nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win DOUGAL (5.35 Windsor)
BET 7.5pts win (nap) MAN OF HARLECH (6.05 Windsor)
DAQ DOUBLE: 5pts win double the above pair
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2.00 Ascot Team Hannon’s record in this – 1211 – is at stake as Magical Roundabout steps up out of a Windsor maiden from which 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th have all been beaten since.
But speedball Abscent Friends would be better on a sound surface and needs something to keep him concentrating, so trainer Bill Turner is thinking about the Chester bends.
That leaves Escalating, a grandson of Lear Fan, who was beaten favourite in the Brocklesby: without a run and on soft ground then, but this sizeable colt was a different proposition at Kempton and should head the market here. The very fact that he doesn’t means he’s a bet.
2.35 Ascot Another Hannon benefit race – the stable goes for a hat-trick here – with Richard Hughes preferring Expert to Musical Comedy. But Danehill Revival looks dark!
3.10 Ascot A fillies’ race, without so much as the sun on their backs! A punters nightmare with four within a 7lb ratings parameter of those exposed, and a fair bet the winner will come from one among another quartet, those with just one or two runs.
Clive Cox (Bright Cecily) is going for a hat-trick after yesterday’s Nottingham double; Ralph Beckett won at Windsor, and Charlie Appleby at Wolver. So no edge against the trainers, then.
Of course, the ‘man most likely to’ is John Gosden (Solar Magic), who’s had 25 winners this year, more than most can hope for in a season.
3.45 Ascot (Sagaro Stakes) The four-year-olds Colour Vision and Estimate both won this on the way to Gold Cup glory in the last two years.
But this season’s four-year-old contender, Cocktail Queen, is 20lb behind the seven-year-old Royal-Oak winner, Tac De Boistron (holds Missunited).
Another aged seven, front-runner Harris Tweed, will do well to poach this one first time up, and Oriental Fox, though improving to win the Cesarewitch trial last autumn, has 11lb to find with Tac De Boistron on official ratings.
Simenon loves Ascot (form there 112) and was beaten only a neck by Estimate for the pot of gold. Fit from Meydan, this should be his for the taking, though he has reserved his best form for top of the ground and the stable has reservations about his wellbeing.
VERDICT: Willie Mullins is worried that Simenon is not in ‘as good order as we would like’, according to the Racing Post interview, so the punting decision is whether Harris Tweed can get all his own way when he’s likely to need the run.
Tac De Boistron is penalized but, with Simenon and Harris Tweed seemingly with their own problems, he looks a good BETDAQ bet at offers of 4.6 as I write.
4.55 Punchestown Form is not gospel. It’s what you make of it. What should we assume, for instance, from Apache Jack’s defeat of Very Wood at Naas, or the form reversal when Very Wood won the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, with Apache missing the big scalp, only third.
Cheltenham was half a mile further but it would be inviting scrambled egg to suggest that Apache Jack (an Oscar out of a Supreme Leader mare) lacks stamina.
Don Poli, also scored at Cheltenham, but that was a handicap, this is Grade 1 conditions, and he needs some rain. However, he beat Thomas Crapper the equivalent of 19 lengths that day but that one was beaten a total of nearly 50 lengths in two handicaps either side of that.
The key to the collateral may be Killala Quay: he had Beat That in second in the Neptune Trial at Sandown, was then six lengths of Faugheen in the Neptune itself at Cheltenham but met massive improvement from Beat That at Aintree, trailing him 37 lengths.
VERDICT: Beat That is a horse for the future from the only yard outside of Ireland to get a look-in yesterday. A son of Milan (like Jezki) out of a Presenting mare. That’s NH royalty!
5.30 Punchestown Gold Cup Horses of Gold Cup level at Cheltenham are normally needed for this: that’s On His Own (2nd in the big one) and Lyreen Legend (6th), who ran second to the Gold Cup winner when they met in the RSA last year.
The trip found Lyreen Legend out for gold last month – though his jumping might have been better – and he could be hard to beat here, still only seven and with the ground (so rarely) in his favour.
But, if you ran that Gold Cup again, On His Own might have won it, bumped and carried right, but still beaten just a short-head in a blanket finish.
Yet Ruby Walsh prefers Boston Bob, a winner only up to 21f but whose Aintree win got a bit of a boost from the third, Ballynagour, placed in yesterday’s Champion Chase.
Medermit and Foildubh are nearly horses in this class, too old to change their spots now, but improvement can be expected from Argocat, who took a step forward, third to Silviniaco Conti at Aintree (First Lieutenant fourth).
The Lieutenant had won that race last year, and Mouse Morris reaches for the blinkers in place of the cheekpieces to try to bridge the gap today. I’m not against any aids but can’t bet on them at Grade-1 level.
VERDICT: Ruby Walsh’s rejecting the Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up in favour of a horse of 21f ability had me combing the form, the breeding and the quotes, and I came up with this: ‘Boston Bob might be a Grand National horse next year’: W Mullins. No stamina doubts, then.
Lyreen Legend (7.0 on BETDAQ) always does well here and has trip and conditions in his favour. Argocat could take another step forward. But Boston Bob (4.0) gets the number-one vote. Oh I forgot to mention Long Run. So, there you are; I’ve mentioned him.
6.40 Punchestown The Irish handicapper is a hard man, so he is. Shot From The Hip has run five times over the wrong trip since Ballybrit in August and been beaten – plus pulled up once – a total of around 50 lengths. He’s been dropped a pound. A whole pound.
Thanks very much, says trainer Edward O’Grady, who joins M T O’Donovan in putting yer man on his Christmas card list. His runner, Supreme Doc, is on a losing run of 20, has also been around a 50 lengths’ total in arrears since August – plus unseated rider – yet is dropped just 3lb.
Generous, you are, sir – to a fault – an epithet the strength of which is found only in Flann O’Brien, a good man at the races himself.
So it’s time someone thanked the handicapper. Step forward The Punter, a faceless figure who gets very little help, except – in these cases – from him.
Theoretically, he has helped us write off some of the runners in this race, and concentrate the pack like the zest from the fruit juice. Somewhere, there’s a drop of nectar to be had, called profit.
Wise Old Owl has been pegged at 135, Gift Of Dgab on 138, Orpheus Valley at 128, which is 10lb higher than his last winning mark. Beneficial Spirit is 15lb too high; Colbert Station 27lb.
Lambro has pulled up or been well beaten against all the horses I’ve mentioned so far. All too easy for the handicapper. And that makes it easier for us.
But those he can do little about are the young novices and those running in handicaps for the first time.
Aupcharlie, who has never even run in a handicap hurdle, ‘could be anything’, despite top weight, and the youngsters Grandioso, Competitive Edge, King Vuvuzela, Pass The Hat and Mitebeall Forluck are comparatively unexposed. Snag is that none has won beyond 2m 5f.
Best clues to their stamina in the conditions are that Grandioso (sire Westerner gets good ground winners but not so far at 3m); Competitive Edge is bred to stay and did well at the Fairyhouse Festival, which is a good pointer to Punchestown; King Vuvuzela’s form on today’s course is 110013, and his dam is half-sister to Grand National winner, Comply Or Die; Pass The Hat failed in his only attempt at 3m; Mitebeall Forluck is 7lb out of the handicap.
VERDICT: I’m glancing over my shoulder, worried about Gift Of Dgab, the Gigginstown pick for the race, ridden by Barry Geraghty, and trained Tony Martin, who had two placed from three yesterday.
But Competitive Edge (8.8 on BETDAQ this morning) and King Vuvuzela (10.0) seem to have more going for them than most.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY 10pts MAGICAL ROUNDABOUT and BET 10pts win ESCALATING (2.00 Ascot)
BET 5.5pts win TAC DE BOISTRON (3.45 Ascot)
BET 11pts win (nap) BEAT THAT (4.55 Punchestown)
BET 6.6pts win BOSTON BOB and 3.3pts win LYREEN LEGEND (5.30 Punchestown)
BET 2.5pts win COMPETITIVE EDGE and 2.2pts win KING VUVUZELA (6.40 Punchestown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble ESCALATING (2.00 Ascot), BEAT THAT (4.55 Punchestown) and BOSTON BOB (5.30 Punchestown)
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HOW PUNTER-FRIENDLY BETDAQ BEATS THE BOOKIES
Punchestown arrives with a health warning for your wallet. Three times on today’s card last year, the bookies skimmed off around 50% of your winnings.
They did it with massive overrounds in their Total SPs. Yet this morning I found 104% punter-friendly lists of offers on BETDAQ in three of five races I analysed.
Here are the Total SPs as recorded in the form book for last year’s first day: 134%, 117%, 148%, 115%, 160%, 123% and 153%. If you’re looking for value, come to the Daq!
3.40 Punchestown (cross-country) Enda Bolger is 14241131 in this, including a six-year-old (like Fade Away here), but never a five-year-old; in fact, there have been none of that age in the decade.
As ever, Bolger doesn’t stint himself on jockey power, with Nina Carberry and Derek O’Connor two of those called in to make sure there is no Enda the run! His other two runners, including one of his three five-year-olds, are claimed off to the maximum.
VERDICT: I’d be inclined toward last year’s runner-up, Lord Hawkfield, but much the smartest move here is to watch the BETDAQ market: Bolger’s four winners since 2006 all started between 3-1 and 5-1, and there has been no winner in the decade with a double-figure SP.
4.20 Punchestown (Champion Novice Hurdle) Future champion hurdlers Brave Inca (2004), Hurricane Fly (2009) and Jezki (last year) all took this as one of their stepping-stones to Cheltenham.
And the path they took to today’s race was via win and third in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham and success in the Leopardstown Future Champion Novice Hurdle over Christmas.
Fourth in the Supreme (Sgt Reckless) and winner of a longer race, the Neptune (Faugheen), is the best ‘the good book’ can offer today.
Faugheen’s drop back in trip means this is his first run over 2m in almost a year and that was a bumper.
VERDICT: Sgt Reckless (9.6 on BETDAQ this morning) followed his Supreme effort by running second in the equivalent at Aintree.
If that hasn’t taken too much out of him, and the ground isn’t overwatered, he is clear second best to Faugheen, and it’s not reckless to take a place offer which will give me 70% better return for three places than Faugheen for the win.
4.55 Punchestown Only two winners in the last decade have carried more than 10st 6lb to victory in this, with all 10 winners at a double-figure SP.
English raider Cool Macavity has won only at novice level, like 40% of winners of this race – and is one of few in the race to be successful on drier ground.
Diplomat and Star Of Aragon are known sounder-surface horses for the home team. Diplomat’s eight defeats as favourite puts me off. And I’m persuaded against Sea Beat, as only one four-year-old has won this going right back to the invention of sliced bread.
Jockey bookings say that Lucky Bridle is best of the Mullins duo. Not seen since winning his maiden but bred for class, by Dylan Thomas, and the next five home in that maiden have all won since.
Another classy contender is The Game Changer in a first-time hood and with Davy Russell doing the steering. He comes from a Listed race of winners at Naas, and 10.5 on BETDAQ this morning is a decent offer.
The one I like at a price – massive at 22.0 – is Absolutelyfantastic, who mixes it on the Flat, over hurdles and in chases and has a potent turn of foot on top of the ground.
VERDICT: In an open race, I’ll take BETDAQ-value offers about The Game Changer, who loves a right-hand track, and Absolutely Fantastic, with a stakes saver on the favourite, Lucky Bridle.
5.30 Punchestown (Champion Chase) The last six winners had all run in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham, four of them winners or placed. Somersby, Module and Sizing Europe chased home Sire De Grugy in the big one in March.
Half the field is inferior to the class of champion we can expect here, since the only other Grade-2 winners in the race are Days Hotel and Twinlight.
Somersby has won a head then a neck on the two occasions he has met Module and that’s more than the difference Barry Geraghty will make today.
Ballynagour and Hidden Cyclone are hard to assess, as winners between 2m4f and 2m 7f. In theory, the faster ground today won’t help the stamina horses, and Hidden Cyclone can make errors in the faster 2m races.
Baily Green (9.4 offers on BETRDAQ this morning) likes good ground and is a significantly better horse going right-handed and has been aimed at this.
VERDICT: Module (6.0 as I write) has had only 12 races in his life and has Geraghty to grab him some glory today. Baily Green has always been talked off for this meeting, and with the old boys, Somersby and Sizing Europe, likely to concede on the livelier ground, should be placed.
6.40 Punchestown (Champion Novice Chase) Morning Assembly, four wins from five starts on this course, has beaten Carlingford Lough, Ballycasey and Don Cossack.
Mozoltov and Djakadam are unexposed at 3m. Ruby Walsh prefers Djakadam, who is in receipt of 9lb but it’s a tough ask for a five-year-old.
Don Cossack has raced (12F2) at all the festivals of Fairyhouse, Leopardstown, Cheltenham and Aintree and this could be a bridge too far.
VERDICT: With trip and ground unknowns for some of these, Morning Assembly may be the safest bet but I’m not convinced at 4.0 this morning, even though the BETDAQ list of offers adds up to only 104% as I write, the third at such a punter-friendly level of the five I’ve looked at.
HAVE A BIG BET ON LITTLE MAN AT LINGFIELD
LINGFIELD: Little Big Man (1.25 Lingfield) has been crying out for 7f and, with Black Vale to set the pace – and keep the price up – and Richard Hughes doing the steering, is a banker nap on a poor day in England and a tough one in Ireland.
YARMOUTH: Ryan Moore expects an armchair ride on Zuhoor Baynoona (2.05 Yarmouth), who has worked with a winning two-year-old at home and is bred for speed.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) LITTLE BIG MAN (1.25 Lingfield)
BET 2.3pts win and 7.7pts place SGT RECKLESS (4.20 Punchestown)
BET 4pts win MODULE and 2.4pts win BALLY GREEN (5.30 Punchestown)
BET 2.1pts win THE GAME CHANGER and 0.9pts win and place ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC, plus 1pt win (stakes saver) LUCKY BRIDLE (4.55 Punchestown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win treble LITTLE BIG MAN (1.25 Lingfield), ZUHOOR BAYNOONA (2.05 Yarmouth) and FAUGHEEN (4.20 Punchestown)
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