DONN McCLEAN: It looks like Godolphin have a strong hand in the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes, the feature race at Newbury this weekend. They already had Toormore and Belardo, as well as Barchan, the Class 4 handicap winner, the 150/1 shot who led from early in the B365 Mile at Sandown last month. And just this week, they have added Dutch Connection.
That was a good Godolphin race, the B365 Mile: it was won by their horse Toormore, and their other horse Belardo finished fourth, with their subsequently-acquired horse Dutch Connection finishing second.
Belardo didn’t really have the run of the race that day. Despite the early pace that was set by Barchan, it was a race in which the prominent racers dominated. Toormore and Dutch Connection, the pair who ultimately fought out the finish, were prominently positioned from early. By contrast, Belardo was held up towards the rear from early, and he closed all the way to the line, getting to within two lengths of the winner by the time he reached the winning line.
The rain that they had at Newbury on Wednesday and Thursday looked like a positive for Belardo, but it was drying out on Friday. They changed the official description from soft, good to soft in places, to good to soft, soft in places, after the first race on Friday, and the times on the day suggest ground definitely on the easy side of good, but not too soft. Also, the forecast is for sun and drying conditions, and that may just be too dry for Belardo.
Kodi Bear is another horse who was backed when the rains arrived. Clive Cox’s horse can operate on good ground, he won a listed race at Windsor last July on fast ground, but the most impressive performance of his life, in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood last August, was on soft ground. You have to think that his chance is decreasing as the track dries.
Back to Godolphin for a second, and Toormore is a big player. The Richard Hannon-trained horse is a classy performer, he was unbeaten as a juvenile, he won the Group 2 Lennox Stakes last year as a four-year-old, and he started off this season by winning the afore-mentioned Bet365 Mile. It makes sense that he is high in the betting for the Lockinge Stakes.
However, he is joint favourite for the race now with Kodi Bear at around 5.5, whereas Dutch Connection, the horse that he beat by a neck at Sandown, is an 11.0 shot. That discrepancy looks big.
Keeping with the Godolphin theme for a second, isn’t it interesting that they bought Dutch Connection? After he was beaten by Toormore? They also bought Home Of The Brave, who also had an entry in the Lockinge Stakes. Home Of The Brave is side-stepping the Newbury race, but Dutch Connection is set to take his chance, and he could be a big player in the race.
The Charlie Hills-trained colt travelled like the best horse in the Bet365 Mile for a long way. He looked the likely winner when he took up the running, still travelling well, at the two-furlong pole, before he was just out-gunned by the more experienced Toormore up the hill.
It may have been lack of peak fitness that beat him that day. It was his first run of the season, his first since he ran in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland last October, and it may have been that he just lacked match practice.
Sure enough, he does tend to improve for his seasonal debut. He was beaten on his seasonal debut at two. He won his maiden on his third run, and he won the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York on his fourth.
Last year, he finished seventh in the Guineas on his seasonal debut, and he won the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot on his second. He showed significant improvement from his first to his second run last season, and there is every chance that he will improve considerably again from his first run to his second this term.
He does have a neck to find with Toormore on their running at Sandown, and that was Toormore’s seasonal debut too, but Toormore goes very well fresh. He has won three times on his seasonal debut, and he finished second – beaten just a neck by Night Of Thunder in the Lockinge Stakes last year – on his other seasonal debut. There is every chance that Dutch Connection can improve past his Sandown conqueror. He only has a neck to find, which is less than the three parts of a length by which he was beaten by Toormore in the Lennox Stakes last year. He is getting closer.
Dutch Connection has never raced on ground that is softer than good to soft, but it shouldn’t be too far from that at Newbury on Saturday. He handles good to soft ground well. Also, he is only four, and he is primed for further progress now on his second run as a four-year-old.
He has never won over a mile, and he did win the Jersey Stakes over seven furlongs – his record over seven furlongs reads 11312 – but he stayed a mile well when he was second, beaten just a half a length by Territories, in the Prix Jean Prat last year, and it is probable that it was more the lack of a recent run than any lack of stamina that beat him in the Bet365 Mile.
Limato comes into it now that the ground may not be too soft, and Gm Hopkins and Arod are both players, while Endless Drama is a fascinating contender. It is an intriguing race in which you can make a case for plenty, but 11.0 about Dutch Connection looks like the value of the race.
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