186 POINTS FROM 10 WINNING BETS: Daqman soared to 186 points in winnings for the week with his fourth day of profit out of five yesterday, and his second winning banker. The week has so far seen:
TEN returns (eight winners)
SIX hits in a row
THREE naps up
TWO bankers out of two
THREE doubles (one treble)
REACH FOR THE SKY WITH DAQMAN: Daqman warned yesterday that his banker, The Sky Is Blazing (WON 6-4), is a horse with a future and ’could be anything.’ The 10 tipping hits in the week have been:
WON 8-1 CONTRE TOUS (Monday)
WON 4-7 FATTSOTA (Tuesday banker nap)
WON 11-4 HATTONS HILL
WON 5-2 ROYAL RUBY
WON 13-8 HINT OF GREY (Wednesday nap)
WON 8-11 HAJJAM
WON (2nd 12-1 w/p) LADY HESTER (Thursday)
WON (2nd 7-1 w/p) GIVEAWAY GLANCE
WON 6-4 THE SKY IS BLAZING (Friday banker nap)
WON 9-2 CARNSPINDLE
THEY’RE OFF IN THE VALUE CHALLENGE: Lincoln Handicap day today sees the start of the English Flat and return of the Daqman v Pricewise value challenge. It’s the eighth season after seven in a row for Daqman, who is 407-171 wins in the lead overall.
SWIFT PACE SETS UP BIRCHWOOD
They’re Off! It’s the start of the Flat in England but punters will still have to jump to it if they are to make a crust.
Leaving out the Doncaster Mile (only four-years of stats), the seven other races have been won by only nine outright favourites from 70 races in the decade.
Winners’ SPs have included 50-1, 33-1, 25-1 twice, 22-1 twice, 20-1 three times, 16-1 twice, 14-1 six times, 12-1 six times. I’m keeping my stakes low and aiming at the high prices. And the place to be for that is your BETDAQ orange.
1.50 Doncaster (Cammidge Trophy) Mobsta won this on soft ground last year, and the forecast showers could keep conditions right for him again. But he’s in stall 3.
Ruth Carr is the trainer in form – going for a hat-trick here – but Piper’s Note is in the ‘coffin box’ one stall, and wins at Ripon.
At this time of year, we are clutching at straws, and one which appears a handhold on the surface is that, in the last three renewals with double-figure fields, the first two by draw have been 14-12, 10-11 and 11-10.
Captain Colby (stall 12), and Scrutineer are also winners at Doncaster. Birchwood (gate 8), who drops from Group level, will need a strongly-run race, and its handy for him that front-runner Swift Approval is in the adjacent box and also sees out 7f.
Nameitwhatyoulike (in gate 10) has to give weight all round. Ride Like The Wind (11) is hooded first time. Blue Bayou (13) with Frankie Dettori booked, is fancied by his early-bird yard but has to recoup 2015 form. Tupi, too.
Andrew Balding, two winners from four, has Abosolutely So in stall nine but his form also harks back a couple of years.
VERDICT: I’ll take Birchwood (5.6 in the BETDAQ orange) and Blue Bayou at 20.0 from the high end.
STOUTE’S BALLET GOOD CHANCE
2.25 Doncaster (Spring Mile) Last year’s winner, Lord Of The Rock, had to do it the hard way, leading from stall 4, while second, third, fourth and fifth – all drawn high – came at him.
He’s on the other side in 15 today.
Ballet Concerto and Nimr (also high drawn in 17) were both strongly fancied for the Lincoln but off 97 and 95 couldn’t get in!
This second division has only a 7lb handicap parameter, so they won’t be giving much weight away. But, put another way, if the handicapper’s got it right, 22 horses will finish more or less in a line.
The edges have to be improvement from a four-year-old (they’ve won eight times in the decade) trainer form, the ground and the draw but we won’t know the stalls advantage if any until after the race is run. Safest is to have one each side.
Nimr (in 17) and Ballet Concerto (in 6) again fit the bill.
They give you early-bird trainer Richard Fahey with Nimr (BETDAQ offers of 8.2), who looked special when he tanked through the Lincoln Trial, and Ballet Concerto (10.0) for Sir Mjchael Stoiute, who’s won £66,000 from only three runners this year.
3.00 Doncaster (Mile) Castle Harbour won first time last season (and second time!) and so did Stormy Antarctic in the Craven Stakes and Dawn Of Hope in a minor race.
All the others needed time though it was a different story the year before when Tillius won this race on his seasonal debut.
This is the one the favourites win and, though John Gosden looks dangerous with a twin attack – Crazy Horse and Castle Harbour – the Group-1 Stormy Antarctic has to win (at 4.6 on BETDAQ) as last year, before the others get going again.
VISTA OPENS FOR FAHEY AGAIN
3.35 Doncaster (Lincoln Handicap see ABC guide yesterday in the Daqman Archive) As with the Spring Mile, we can only guess at the outcome of the draw but that race will tell us more about this race!
While still blind this morning, we need one on each side, and with a narrow range in the handicap, four-year-old improvers could give us an edge.
On the low side, the now gelded Dolphin Vista (15.0 on BETDAQ in 10) for Richard Fahey and Oh This Is Us (stall 2), soc onsistent in big handicaps for Richard Hannon, should go well.
Yuften is the quality horse in the middle of the moor, and high-drawn best may be Bravery (17.5), a winner at Doncaster who is useful early season, could benefit from a change of stables and would treat them with disdain if reproducing his Irish Guineas form.
HE’S JUSTICE GOOD AS HE WAS!
2.40 Kempton I wouldn’t fancy anything older than five (it’s never happened in this race so far). Stalls 5 and 6 have won it four times in the five years of the race.
Justice Good (in 5) is big at 8.0 on BETDAQ. He can again beat Dougan (Newcastle January), and also both Hakam and Kasbah (on Kempton CD form of November).
Dutch Golden Age is up 7lb and has to improve two grades, but it’s Memories Galore who could step up (much better off with Kasbah).
3.15 Kempton (Rosebery handicap) Noble Gift won this in 2015 off 91 and after a February prep on AW. This time around, apart from being two years older, he’s up 3lb (hence the claimer) and hasn’t been seen since November.
Again, four and five are the top ages for this, and an outside draw could be a killer. I want to be in gate 8 or lower, though Big Country (in 9) appears to be an improver.
Prince Of Arran is the Kempton horse but the handicapper has realty smashed into him. William Hunter (12.5 BETDAQ offers) is a keen sort and I expect to see him hugging the rails in the van.
Final has been consistent at a lower level but, in this grade, Getback In Paris (12.5) went a bit too soon over a furlong shorter on today’s course (first run in England)
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points, unless stated)
BET 4.4pts win BIRCHWOOD, and 1pt win and place BLUE BAYOU (1.50 Doncaster)
BET 3.2pts win NIMR and 2.2pts win BALLET CONCERTO (2.25 Doncaster)
BET 2.8pts win JUSTICE GOOD (2.40 Kempton)
BET 5.5pts win (nap) STORMY ANTARCTIC (3.00 Doncaster)
BET 1.7pts win on each GETBACK IN PARIS and WILLIAM HUNTER (3.15 Kempton)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 3.5pts win DOLPHIN VISTA, and 3pts win and place BRAVERY (3.35 Doncaster)
EARLY BIRDS (See Wednesday’s column): Doncaster 1.50 Birchwood 2.25 Nimr, 3.35 Bravery
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