DERBY COUNTDOWN: More horses supplemented. Another big move in the market. A change of going. Those are the headlines as we draw closer to the Epsom Derby. What does Daqman make of them?
FORTUNE COOKIES: Daqman lines up the entries for his Fortune Cookies in the next two weeks for Epsom and in Ireland before Royal Ascot.
CLASSIC ABC TIPS: Look out tomorrow and Thursday for Daqman’s ABC Guides to the two weekend Classics. He has tipped five winners so far in Guineas and a Derby.
BETTING BLIND? Today’s Daqman nap wears a first-time hood but is from a yard with a near-50% strike rate with the blinds.
CLIFF-HANGER, CLAIMS GOSDEN
Is it wishful thinking? Or should I take the John Gosden Derby decision as a vote for my bet, Cliffs Of Moher?
Gosden has supplemented Khalidi and Permian to bring his Epsom contenders to five, including of course the current favourite, Cracksman.
But, in declaring the race ’wide open’, he is hardly advertising Cracksman’s chances. His statement sounds like he’s told his owners: ‘Nothing stands out; you’ve all got chances.’
The air of ‘anyone can win it’ is strengthened by the ground having turned softish.. but there’s plenty of time for those famous hills and cambers to drain before Saturday. The week is expected to be generally dry until a few showers Friday night.
Meanwhile, carbuncle the bookie has advertised himself by claiming a plunge on Capri, one of the Ballydoyle busload.
But he rather gives himself away by saying: WE feel here that any ‘soft’ in the going description would aid his chances.’ So it would those of a mallard duck with a love of equine sports.
Ladbrokes got the knock-on effect (punters rushing to another bookie when they see a move elsewhere) and made a statement that even Jeremy Paxman would have to accept:
‘It’s not unusual to see such moves at this stage of a Classic week before riding arrangements are confirmed.’
TWO WEEK’S FORTUNE COOKIES
We’re 100% so far. But that’s easy to say because we’ve had just the one runner from our horses to follow, Winter (they didn’t see which way she went in the Irish 1,000 Guineas).
Can our Fortune Cookies now take big races at the Epsom Derby meeting? Here are all the entries from our list that have known engagements before Royal Ascot.
Acapulco The big two are lined up at Royal Ascot (Kings Stand and Golden Jubilee) but she also has the Ballyogan at The Curragh on Sunday week to fall back on
Cliffs Of Moher If Ryan Moore picks him as his Saturday Epsom Derby mount, we can expect to see him favourite (we took 10-1) over Cracksman.
Cracksman If that happens with Cliffs Of Moher, we might then get a better price about Cracksman as our main line of defence. BETDAQ always offers another way.
Elbereth Steps out of the shadows of work partner Horseplay (Oaks) and takes in Epsom on Friday (Coronation Cup) or Saturday (Princess Elizabeth Stakes)
Enable Don’t even think about our 25-1 bet in the Oaks yet! Wait until the day; then lay her off or nervously nominate a second bet. Or both. After all, we have bags of ‘overs’ to play with. She was 6.8 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
Peace Envoy Heavily entered up for the big time at Royal Ascot but I’d rather get some of my money back for sure at Leopardstown (June 15)
Natavia Same sire as Enable. Similar improvement noted, and well backed for the Oaks in the last week (not just a Capri bubble).
Rhododendron And here’s the third Oaks placer but where: first, second or third? Her (hampered) late run behind Winter in the Newmarket 1,000 now reads better than ever.
But has she had too much racing? Will another Winter improve past her? I offer you strong and stable (!) leadership. At least that’s what it says in my notes.
THE GIRL THAT GOT AWAY..
There’s one thing I hate more than losing. That’s when the cat’s been let out of the bag on something I’ve spotted or been waiting for.
I could just about handle it when one of my outsiders yesterday dwelt at the start and, since it was a 6f sprint, couldn’t get into the race in time.
But what was really painful was the commentator’s parting shot about the filly in question, Melrose Girl (4th 18-1): ‘an eye-catching run; definitely one for next time.’ Daqman screams stage left and composes threatening social-media Trump:
‘Dear Mr Commentator, you did your job calling the race; now will you please allow the totally-unaware public to fail miserably to digest the evidence of that run, and leave me some odds for next time!’
What happens now? Well, she’s going to be short(ish) when she runs again, on the strength of that analysis. But there is a ray of hope.
She is allowed three runs before she is qualified for handicaps when, given a couple of easies, she could be 18-1 again. Not that the trainer would be thinking of that, would he?
FRANKIE HAS THEM ALL AT BAY
1.50 and 3.20 Leicester We don’t often see Frankie Dettori at Leicester. He’s had just 16 rides there in six seasons.
Here he is for John Gosden on a Frankel two-year-old, Westerland (1.50), who has the benefit of a run, and the filly, Cashla Bay (3.20) who stands out in this class-4 handicap as a Group-1 entry.
Gosden has a 26% strike rate for first time in a handicap, and a mark of 81 for a Coronation Stakes entry must surely be improved upon today.
I’m talking in my column today about the chess-board moves you need to anticipate when taking a morning position, and how you see the market panning out.
Well, either Cashla Bay has gone backwards down the ladder – dropped all of SIX grades here – or she is an absolute snip at 3.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Only Parlance is reckoned to have any chance against her in the early-mouse orange.
I would take the 3.0, with Parlance as a saver. If Parlance is the one they come for, she becomes a stronger bet. If Cashla Bay drifts like a lonely dog on a raft, the morning bet on her becomes the saver to a punt on Parlance.
2.40 Lingfield Saeed Bin Suroor doesn’t hood his horses when he’s run out of excuses. He has a huge strike rate (47%) when he applies the blinds to those he thinks really ought to be winning.
Team Meeting’s 4.2 on BETDAQ this morning looks well worth taking on the grounds that he is a course winner.
The favourite, Mulzim, has gone up in the weights and switched from the easier Wolverhampton surface, and A Sure Welcome is up in grade and far too easy to back at 6.4 this morning for a horse on a five-timer.
JUST BEGGING TO BE BACKED..
4.00 Redcar Top rating. Topspeed. Back to his winning mark. Dropped in grade by a trainer striking at 40% from a yard that does best with sprinters.
All that at a cursory glance in the Racing Post yet Just Us Two is 10.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
Prompted to delve into my own records, I could find no reason for such seeming-value odds. But, remember, I went hunting such a bet yesterday and found a hatful, all losers. What’s happening here?
The hardest decision of your early-mouse punting is whether a horse is too big because of a bookies mistake, punter failure to grasp its potential, a going change, or general recognition in the market place that it’s ‘not today’ for this one.
My answer is that, if taking an early position, you must see the race through to its conclusion, and bet with further BETDAQ market information to secure a profit later on.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20)
BET 6.25pts win (nap) TEAM MEETING (2.40 Lingfield)
BET 10pts win CASHLA BAY and 2pts win (stakes saver) PARLANCE (3.20 Leicester)
BET 2pts win and place JUST US TWO (4.00 Redcar)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Westerland (1.50 Leicester), Team Meeting (2.40 Lingfield) and Cashla Bay (3.20 Leicester)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
