SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s two Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
NORWICH V LEEDS
2pm It might not be the most glamorous Super Sunday in the Premier League, but we do have two fascinating betting heats on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We start the day with Norwich hosting Leeds in a massive game towards the bottom of the table. Leeds fans won’t enjoy me saying this, but at the moment this is a relegation battle. I know this might sound a little dramatic, but I believe this is a must win game for Leeds. They can’t afford to drop points against Norwich who have been nailed to the bottom of the table all season. Leeds are trading around 2.12 at the time of writing, and I’m sure we’ll have some very different opinions on their price! As you can see by their position in the table, they have been very poor. They have been woeful at the back at times, and they just haven’t been creating the same volume of chances as last season.
I know I’ve said this before about Leeds, but when you drop off your chances created and also don’t control the game, you’re left relying on your defence to get you through the game. The problem for Leeds is that they were never good at the back. They always had these issues and we felt they’d try to solve them during the summer – they could have challenged for the European spots if they progressed naturally and sorted out their issues at the back, not they are in a relegation fight for the time being! Despite the multiple issues Leeds have this season, they really should be winning here. Norwich started the season playing good football but losing games, but now they are playing bad football and losing games. You have to go back to their unlucky loss against Leicester to see them create an xG of over 1.5, and this will likely play into the hands of Leeds. Norwich will be too limited to take advantage of Leeds at the back, leaving this as an excellent opportunity for Leeds to win and start to turn their season around. They put in a decent performance against Wolves last weekend and a similar performance will see them win here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Leeds to beat Norwich at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNorlee
MATCH STATS
● Norwich have won four of their six Premier League meetings with Leeds (D1 L1), though this is their first game against each other in the competition since May 1995 – a 2-1 win for Leeds that confirmed Norwich’s relegation.
● Leeds have lost just one of their last five away league games against Norwich (W2 D2), winning 3-0 in their last visit to Carrow Road in August 2018.
● Since their return to the Premier League last season, Leeds are unbeaten in all eight of their league games against sides in the relegation zone (W6 D2). However, they’ve failed to win either such match so far this season, drawing 1-1 with both Burnley and Newcastle United.
● Norwich’s goal difference of -21 is the joint-worst record at this stage of a Premier League campaign, level with Sheffield Wednesday in 1999-00. Indeed, only in 1946-47 (27) have Norwich ever conceded more goals at this stage of a league campaign than their 23 shipped so far this term.
● Norwich City haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 27 Premier League matches, scoring just seven times and converting 2.6% of their shots in that time. Only two teams in English top-flight history have had longer runs without netting more than once in a game – Arsenal between September 1912 and March 1913 (28 in a row) and Wolves between January 1984 and October 2003 (30 in a row).
● Leeds have just seven points from their nine league matches this season (W1 D4 L4), their worst tally at this stage of a season since the 1988-89 campaign when they had only six.
● Among managers to manage in more than one Premier League season, Norwich manager Daniel Farke has the lowest points-per-game ratio (0.49), the lowest win ratio (10.6%) and the lowest goals-per-game ratio (0.60) of any manager. Norwich have also shipped 98 goals in his 47 matches in charge, with the only manager seeing 100 goals conceded in fewer than 50 games being John Gorman (42 games, all with Swindon in 1993-94).
● Norwich goalkeeper Tim Krul has conceded an average of 1.64 goals-per-game in his Premier League career (332 goals conceded in 202 games), the highest rate of any goalkeeper with at least 200 appearances in the competition.
● Leeds striker Patrick Bamford has scored four goals in his last five Premier League games against sides he’s previously played for in the competition (2 vs Crystal Palace, 2 vs Burnley). This will be his first such appearance against Norwich, having played seven times for the Canaries in 2015-16.
● Despite only coming on in the 62nd minute against Wolves, Leeds’ 19-year-old forward Joe Gelhardt had the joint-most shots of any player in the match (3) and had 11 touches in the opposition box, as many as Wolves managed in the entire game against Leeds.
ASTON VILLA V WEST HAM
4.30pm We have a very open market for the big TV slot on Sunday as Aston Villa host West Ham. I have to say, I feel the odds are all wrong here. West Ham looks an excellent value bet at 2.52 – I would have them much shorter. I know The Hammers haven’t been as good this season as last, but to be fair last season was their best ever and it’s always going to be very hard to follow that. That being said, they still started the weekend sitting in the Top Four, and who knows, they could challenge for the Champions League spots again this season with Spurs, Man United and Arsenal all having their own issues. Aston Villa look a very limited side to me without Jack Grealish this season, and although they started the weekend in 13th, they actually aren’t that far away from being dragged into a relegation fight. You’d expect Southampton and Leeds to move up, and Newcastle if they spend big in the transfer window – things could change very quickly towards the bottom of the table.
Since getting a very lucky win over Manchester United at Old Trafford, Villa have gone on to lose their last three. On paper, you might say they had a tricky fixture list playing Spurs, Wolves and Arsenal but I would say that West Ham are a better side than all three of those clubs. They conceded an xG of 1.92 v Spurs, 2.03 v Wolves and 3.23 v Arsenal – those are some big numbers and that’s not including their 2.45 v Manchester United. West Ham put Spurs to the sword last weekend and surely they will come here full of confidence after knocking Man City out of the Carabao Cup midweek which is no mean feat! I feel the odds are so far off here that West Ham have to be a Max Bet at 2.52.
The Striker Says:
Five points win West Ham to beat Aston Villa at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAstwes
MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa are winless in their last six Premier League meetings with West Ham (D3 L3) since a 1-0 home win in May 2015
● West Ham won this exact fixture 3-1 last season and are looking to pick up consecutive away league wins against Aston Villa for the first time since a run of three between 1965 and 1967.
● Aston Villa have lost each of their last three Premier League games, last having a longer such run in the competition in February/March 2020 (4).
● West Ham have won 17 points from their nine Premier League games this season (W5 D2 L2), their best start to a season since 2015-16 under Slaven Bilic (also had 17 pts). The Hammers have only won six of their opening 10 games in five previous top-flight seasons and once in the Premier League, the aforementioned 2015-16 campaign.
● Aston Villa have lost all three of their Premier League games in October 2021 – the last time they played as many as four league games in a month and lost every single one was in April 2016 (lost 5/5).
● West Ham are unbeaten in their last seven away Premier League matches (W5 D2), last having a longer unbeaten run on the road in the top-flight between August and November 1986 (eight in a row).
● Aston Villa striker Danny Ings has faced West Ham in the Premier League more often without ever scoring than he has any other opponent (9 games). Indeed, he’s also ended on the losing side in eight of his nine appearances against the Hammers in the top-flight, drawing the other.
● After a 12-game winless run against Aston Villa in the Premier League between 2006 and 2012 (D8 L4), West Ham boss David Moyes has won five of his last seven against them in the competition (D2).
● Only Mohamed Salah (10 goals, 5 assists) has been directly involved in more Premier League goals than West Ham’s Michail Antonio this season (6 goals, 3 assists). Since David Moyes returned to the club in January 2020, Antonio has 25 goals and 10 assists in 49 appearances, 14 more goal involvements than any other Hammers player.
● Jacob Ramsey netted his first Premier League goal for Aston Villa in their 3-1 defeat to Arsenal, aged 20 years and 147 days, their youngest top-flight scorer since Jack Grealish in September 2015 (20y 3d). The last player as young as Ramsey on the day of this game (20y 156d) to score in consecutive Premier League games for Villa was Gabriel Agbonlahor in January 2007 (20y 99d).
