GIANTS OF A BIG WEEKEND: Look out for a big-race bonanza this week: Berkshire National and Ascot Hurdle, the Morgiana Hurdle and the John Durkan at Punchestown, Lancashire Chase at Haydock, plus Goliath versus Auguste Rodin in Japan.
BAD IS A GOOD ASCOT NAP: Since Daqman’s sequence of 15 winners in a week was broken by the weather on Tuesday, he has had returns of 3012232 and hoping Ascot today will lift him out of the rut. He has a good nap called Bad.
GOOD CHANCE FOR BAD
⭕ 12.55 Ascot Not a Bad idea of Ben Pauling’s to return to Ascot where the horse of that name has been placed in three hurdles (two at class-2 level) and on his chasing debut earlier in the month.
Riskinthegroundhas has the advantage of four chase successes starting in May and the Skeltons will take every chance if finding a soundish surface (the forecast is good to soft, cloudy).
Rare Edition won a small-field novice chase at Uttoxeter, when only the winner and short-head second played any real part, and Bucksy Des Epeires is from a stable out of form.
TAKE EVEN-MONEY DINO
⭕ 1.30 Ascot Sam Thomas must surely get more horses into the Glamorgan yard after he produced Al Dancer for a superb success in the Badger Beer at Wincanton recently.
He hasn’t much material but places them well; example Celtic Dino, winner on his hurdles debut at the October Wincanton meeting.
He has to race every month to get into a big handicap hurdle in February but he must have top of the ground.
Wade Out has never been beaten (3-3 in Point, bumper and novice hurdle) and is well related to get at least another half-mile.
The grey mare Jouyeuse has stamina from the dam’s side and brings Nicky Henderson’s reputation to the table. Big-field juvenile-hurdle winner on heavy in France, Nothing To Sea is hooded first run in England.
FREDDIE FINE FOR AFADIL
⭕ 2.40 Ascot Freddie Gingell has kept the ride on Afadil since winning the Scottish County Hurdle on him at Musselburgh in February.
Together they also finished fifth in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and fourth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr.
But the handicapper has been generous after his two runs back this autumn: he’s been dropped 5lb, and he gets weight from most of the form horses, in fact from all bar two when you add in Freddie’s 3lb allowance.
Williethebuilder and Alnilam were one-two at Wetherby in a class 3 earlier in the month on the same day that Break My Soul ran second at Ascot, with Afadil (hampered; lost hind shoe) in fourth.
The winner that day had been a long looking 15 lengths behind very easy winner Aurigny Mill at Kempton last December but that looked flukey.
Nicky Henderson, who trains Break My Soul, has won this race three times since 2017. Harry Fry has won it twice, including last year with Gin Coco, another who must have top of the ground.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value 3.15 Break My Soul, 8.7 Afadil
IT’S CLASSICO BAILEY FORM
⭕ 3.15 Ascot When Kim Bailey gets a horse in form, he invariably keeps it at peak. Last month, The Kemble Brewery won again at Ffos Las within three weeks; on the same day, El Rio scored again a month after winning at Huntingdon; and Hurlerontheditch won a head at Lingfield after being beaten a neck first run back.
As for the stable star, Chianti Classico seems destined for the Becher Chase in two weeks time, with form figures of 111112141, still standing.
It all seems to be Bailey’s Law Of Supply on demand! The six-year-old was impressive on his chasing debut at Worcester and, after a tweak to his wind-op, looks good, getting 8lb from Paul Nicholls’ Regatta De Blanc.
But hold your horses, Gingell’s about! Freddie claims 3lb on Regatta so could yet dip his oar in with this Point winners and hunter-chaser in a match of two very promising six-year-olds.
Betdaq betting Exchange 4.9 Law Of Supply, 5.1 Regatta De Blanc.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.55 Ascot (win 14, nap)
BET 10pts win BAD
1.30 Ascot (win 10)
BET 10pts win CELTIC DINO
2.40 Ascot (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 7pts win AFADIL
BET 5pts to win 10 BREAK MY SOUL
3.15 Ascot (win 20)
BET 5pts win LAW OF SUPPLY
BET 4pts win REGATTA DE BLANC
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