The NFL’s oldest rivalry sees the Green Bay Packers hosting the Chicago Bears as Week 2 gets off to an early start on Thursday night.

Simon Milham offers his thoughts, along with an oldie-but-goodie musical interlude…

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So, what did we learn from Week 1 of the NFL?

  • Interceptions aside, rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill made some excellent decisions in a 20-point defeat at Houston, and the Miami Dolphins are not as bad as advertised – certainly not worse than the scab referees (as those who watched the conclusion to the Arizona/Seattle game will concur. Surely, the ability to count to three is a mandatory requirement? Handing Seattle four time-outs almost cost the Cardinals the game). Oh, all right, they are. The glaring lack of talent at the wide receiver position means it will be less throw and catch, more fling and hope. A long season may ensue in Miami.
  • St Louis are not a better team than they were last season. Their gritty performance in Detroit, which ended in defeat, does not mean Jeff Fisher is a coaching genius. They are a very young, enthusiastic group, prone to many mistakes. And they will be punished accordingly, although their record will ultimately be better than in 2011.
  • The New York Jets flew under the radar – for a week at least (fist pumps all round for offensive coordinator Tony Sparano), but Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Houston and New England come calling in the next six weeks. It’s a front-loaded schedule but anyone thinking the Jets are not potential playoff material has been sucked in by the mainstream media. They are better than an 8-8 outfit.
  • Washington’s rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III is going to make headlines for a couple of weeks yet. After completing 71.3 per cent of his passes against New Orleans, he goes up against a Rams’ defence that gave up 355 passing yards this weekend.
  • The Saints always have problems against the Redskins, and they will bounce back to make a fight of the NFC South, especially if Atlanta do not find a running game. Although the Falcons smoked Kansas City, similar production to their 84 yards on 23 carries isn’t going to cut it when trying to run time off the clock against top passing attacks.
  • Cleveland rookie Brandon Weeden is going to continue to make headlines, too. His 5.1 passer rating (only six times has a Cleveland passer achieved such a lowly rating) was topped by four interceptions and two fumbles – and he had a huge hand in Philadelphia handing the Browns a 17-16 loss at Cleveland Browns Stadium.
  • Don’t buy into the pre-season hype surrounding Seattle. The Seahawks looked – receiver Sidney Rice apart – very ordinary against Arizona and their schedule is horrific, facing the likes of Dallas, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, New England and San Francisco.
  • After nailing a 63-yard field goal, it’s obvious that San Francisco’s David Akers is a kicking stud (someone tell me again: why did Philadelphia let him go?).
  • The joy exuded by Minnesota’s sixth-round draft pick Blair Walsh after booting a 55-yard field goal as time expired and another in overtime to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, is what this game should be all about. He could become a kicking stud. This midweek musical interlude is dedicated to Walsh. Well done, young ’un. I got a kick out of you…

We also learned that the Green Bay Packers, who host NFC North rival Chicago Bears on Thursday night (Sky Sports, 1.20am), can’t run the ball. In fact, they look as though they have more problems than an A-level algebra book. This could become a significant problem down the line.

Cedric Benson managed just 12 yards on six carries in the first half of a 30-22 home defeat by the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday and the Packers never found any rhythm.

Before Packers’ fans get too down and do a reverse Lambeau leap from a very high building, remember this: while quarterback Aaron Rodgers looked human rather than otherworldly, he received little support from a running game that went into the teeth of the one of the better defences in the NFL. It is not the first time they have failed to have a 100-yard rusher. In fact, they haven’t had one for 28 consecutive games. In context, the next worst team in that category has gone 12 games without a ton-up rusher.

Furthermore, the 49ers were packed with first-round offensive talent and the Packers’ defence is young; Dom Capers’ unit will improve as the season progresses.

Rhythm is everything to Green Bay’s offense and the Chicago Bears’ defence, which allowed over 300 yards to a rookie quarterback in Andrew Luck, should mean that Rodgers’ gets the Packers’ inner metronome ticking again.

Chicago’s secondary looks so shaky that they may as well be singing ‘Green Door’, rather than trying to cover James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley.

San Francisco was ranked No2 in scoring defence last season (conceding an average of 14.3 points per game), while Chicago were 14th in the category (21.3 ppg). The Bears’ defence does not appear to have improved markedly – there is still a revolving door at the safety position – and they tied for 19th in sacks last season. Julius Peppers was responsible for 11 of them, despite being repeatedly double-teamed. If the Bears are to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, someone else has to step up. It doesn’t help their cause that cornerback Charles Tillman is rated as questionable to start against the Packers after picking up a leg injury in the opening 41-21 home win over the Colts.

But it is the Bears’ offense which has received arguably the biggest upgrade of any unit on any team. The 6ft 4” Brandon Marshall was essentially traded to Chicago for a bag of donuts in the summer and fellow 6ft 3” rookie wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey has given the Bears the size at the position that they have lacked for years. They will be a tough matchup in the red zone for any team.

It will certainly be an interesting game, for that Bears attack looks much more potent under offensive coordinator Mike Tice than it did last season under Mike Martz. Against Indianapolis, each of the Bears’ five receivers caught a pass of 24 yards or more and there was good balance, with Tice calling 33 runs and 35 passes. Not even Ike Turner could beat those numbers.

But there is that big asterisk: they were playing Indianapolis, whose defence is still very much the NFL equivalent of Play-Doh – soft everywhere and easily squished into whatever form their opponents wish to make.

At first glance, this has the makings of a shoot-out and in the last seven Week 2 games the Packers have played, the total points has gone over the mark set by odds-makers on six occasions.

In contrast, the points total has gone under the line in eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams. The BETDAQ total points line is set at 51 and it could be a shade too high.

Far better to put faith in the Packers, who have a happy knack of bouncing back from losses. They have covered the handicap in their last nine games following a defeat and have also covered the handicap in eight of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

The Bears receive a 5.5 start on the BETDAQ handicap and while quarterback Jay Cutler will orchestrate his usual quota of big plays, the Pack should ease clear for a double-digit victory.

Suggestions:
Lay – Over 51 total points
Back – Green Bay -5.5

Twitter: @simonmilham
Milham’s 2012 record – 7-5

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