There’s an early start to the golf action this week, with the WGC Accenture Match Play getting underway on Wednesday. Mike Yenbland offers his top trading suggestions …
WGC Accenture Match Play
Hunter Mahan, fresh from his Top 10 finish at the Northern Trust Open, bids to defend his title against 63 of the world’s best in single-elimination match play at the Ritz-Carlton Golf Club, Dove Mountain, in Marana, Arizona.
But the trends would seemingly be against him at the Jack Nicklaus-designed course, which is a par-72 of 7,791 yards, as previous winners have a nasty habit of falling early the following year, including the 2011 winner Luke Donald, who was beaten in the first rounds last year.
Players are seeded according to the Official World Golf Rankings and the straight knockout event sees Thursday with 32 players battling it out, on Friday we’re down to the last 16 and the quarter-finals take place on Saturday. The semi-finals, third-place playoff and final played on Sunday.
Proven form in match play is what punters should be looking for and studying the draw is vital: taking two players from each quarter of the draw (or bracket) is a sensible plan for trading purposes.
Bobby Jones Bracket
There are a number of big names to watch out for here, including the 2012 runner-up and World No1 Rory McIlroy, Major winners Padraig Harrington, Greame McDowell, Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson. Outsiders to consider are Jason Day and Rickie Fowler, the latter could be more than a match for McIlroy in the second round.
McIlroy is far too short a price to get involved, given that he missed the cut in Abu Dhabi and has not played since. If McIlroy can reach the quarter-finals, among those he could face would be Bubba Watson, Charl Schwartzel or Zach Johnson, all former Masters winners. That said, he should get past compatriot and good friend Shane Lowry in the first round.
Graeme McDowell (right), at 12.5 to win the Bracket with BETDAQ, could be the one form the top half of the draw in this group. He faces a tough opener against Padraig Harrington but if he comes through that, he will take on either Dustin Johnson, who has missed the cuts in his last two tournaments, or Sweden’s Alexander Noren.
‘G-Mac’ will be keen to make up for lost time, self-imposed though it has been. Until last weekend’s Northern Trust Open, McDowell had not picked up a club in anger since winning the World Challenge the week after Thanksgiving. A proven beast in match play, he’ll be hoping to do what Donald did two years ago: return from a long break, miss the cut at Riviera and then win the World Match Play Championship a week later. McDowell went 72-73 in the first two rounds last weekend and missed the cut at three-over.
The duo to look for from the bottom half of the group here are in-form Schwartzel and Ryan Moore.
Schwartzel is in superb form, following up his second at the Joburg Open with a T-3 at Riviera. That gives him a top-five finish in his last seven worldwide starts, including his Alfred Dunhill Championship in mid-December. His toughest match could come against Ryan Moore, whom he is expected to face in the third round The big question is whether he can lay that hex of getting beyond round three only once before.
Moore, who has three USGA Championships to his credit – all three had six rounds of match play – takes on former U.S. Open winner Jim Furyk in round one. Having posted eight top-10 finishes in 2012 – including victory in Las Vegas towards the end of the season – and a fourth-place finish at the recent Phoenix Open (22-under-par 262) shows he has good recent form in the desert.
He missed this event last season, but reached the quarter-finals in 2010, before losing to Luke Donald and could be the one to upset the in-form Schwartzel.
Suggestions:
Ryan Moore @ 13
Graeme McDowell @ 14.5
Gary Player Bracket
Tiger Woods, the world No.2 and a winner of this event three times, has two former major champions and the tournament’s reigning champion in his portion of the bracket. He also faces four former European Ryder Cup players, along with Jason Dufner and reigning U.S. Open champ Webb Simpson, who all played with Woods on the U.S. Ryder Cup team in 2012.
His route to the quarter-finals is arguably not as difficult as McIlroy’s and he does have good recent form, having won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines on his first and only start this season.
Woods faces good friend Charles Howell III in the first round. If Tiger advances to the next round, he could face Francesco Molinari, who halved Woods in the final match of the 2012 Ryder Cup. You could argue that Woods has just two wins in five matches on this course, not having made it past the second round since winning in 2008, and is plenty short enough to win this group with BETDAQ at 4.0. But this is easily the weakest bracket of the four and that recent win would have given him plenty of confidence.
It would be easy to make a case for Lee Westwood on last year’s showing. Equipped with an improved short game, he led on 48 of the first 49 holes he played in dominating on his way to the quarter-finals, before losing to McIlroy in the semis. But prior to that, Westwood had never made it out of the second round in 11 previous attempts at this tournament.
Westwood’s chipping and putting shortcomings hampered him as the 2012 season wore on, a weakness in his game that routinely surfaces when his inability to win a major are discussed.
The greens take a fair amount of working out here and when the wind gets up it makes things doubly difficult. Westwood can be confidently taken on in the second half of the Bracket, which also comprises the likes of Mahan, Martin Kaymer and Jason Dufner.
You can make strong cases for all three, but while Dufner made an early exit last year, he was sensational in the Ryder Cup, going 3-1 in his matches at Medinah and his chances will likely hinge on a second-round match against the winner of Mahan and Manassero.
Suggestions:
Tiger Woods @ 4.0
Jason Dufner @ 9.8
Ben Hogan Bracket
The top half of this bracket includes former British Open Champion Louis Oosthuizen (the top seed), two past Major winners in Keegan Bradley (right) and Ernie Els, along with Branden Grace, who won four times on the European Tour, and Fredrik Jacobson, who went close to winning at Riviera.
The 2011 PGA Champion Bradley does not have a great amount of match play experience and while he was good enough to beat two-time winner Geoff Ogilvy in the first round last year, he went out to Miguel Jiminez in the second round.
However, he showed that he has the ability to shine in the match play format with an outstanding Ryder Cup debut. The American loves the limelight and has the short game to be a threat to anyone. He should beat Marcus Fraser before facing either Els or Jacobson, who let a great chance slip by at Riviera last weekend.
The bottom half of the Bracket is one of the strongest around, containing the likes of Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Bill Haas and Matt Kuchar.
Do not dismiss the chance of Nicolas Colsaerts from this half of the Bracket, however. The big-hitting Belgian also has a very good short game, ideal for this desert course. The ‘Belgian Bomber’ seems to like the desert, having opened the Phoenix Open with a six-under-par 65, hitting 15 greens, managing five birdies (two from outside 11 feet), and putt and incurring just one bogey. He won the Volvo World Match Play last May and was superb in his Ryder Cup debut. And should he beat Bill Haas in the opening round, he could face Ryder Cup teammate Rose on Thursday, if the Englishman disposes of K.J. Choi in his opener.
Suggestions:
Keegan Bradley @ 8.6
Nicolas Colsaerts @ 12.0
Sam Snead Bracket
This looks the weakest of the four Brackets and revolves around Luke Donald and Ian Poulter.
After a three-month winter break Donald, who won this event two years ago, looked sharp enough until the final round at Riviera.
He won the PGA and European Tour money lists in 2011, spent 56 weeks as the world No.1 and his short game is arguably the best in the business. He looks to have a fairly easy route to the last 16, where he may well come up against Henrick Stenson. A former winner of this event, he should dispose of another former winner, Steve Stricker in the first round before conquering the winner of the Nick Watney/David Toms clash. Stenson could be the fly in the ointment for Donald, and he rates as a potential back to lay proposition.
Poulter, the 2010 champion, was unbeaten in four Ryder Cup matches. While he has the likes of Adam Scott and Tim Clark, two past Presidents Cup players in his half of the Bracket draw, the main threat to his progress before the likely quarter-final clash with Donald could come from Scott Piercy, who has a long drive and seems to save his best for the desert.
Suggestions:
Luke Donald @ 5.1
Ian Poulter @ 6.2
Our top 10 First-Round suggestions
Ian Poulter to beat Stephen Gallagher @ 1.47
Poulter is among the favourites for the tournament and match play is his forte. A no-brainer.
Matt Kuchar to beat Hiroyuki Fujita @ 1.4
Kuchar also excels in this discipline and Fujita does not have the mental game.
Jason Dufner to beat Richard Sterne @ 1.64
If Dufner can sink his usual amount of putts, the pressure will be put on Sterne’s ability to hit the fairway consistently. He won’t be able to.
Ryan Moore to beat Jim Furyk @ 1.91
Furyk played well at Riviera and while Moore’s best golf is played arguably towards the end of the season, he appears on the verge of a big breakthrough win.
Nicolas Colsaerts to beat Bill Haas @ 2.37
Hass has a good short game, but Colsaerts’ driving ability gives him more opportunities.
Nick Watney to beat David Toms @ 1.57
Five top 10s in 26 events in 2012 means Mr Consistency should not be one and done this week.
Dustin Johnson to beat Alexander Noren @ 1.55
So Johnson has let us down twice in two weeks. He won’t make it a hat-trick.
Henrik Stenson to beat Steve Striker @ 1.94
A big-priced outsider to win it all, Stenson has the all-round game to dispose of Stricker, who is past his prime.
Robert Garrigus to beat Branden Grace @ 1.91
Garrigus could easily reach the last 16 if he overcomes the European Tour hot-shot.
Sergio Garcia to beat Thongchai Jaidee @ 1.55
Garcia has a very tricky opener against the Wales Open champion, but the Spaniard should prevail.
Outright suggestions:
Luke Donald @ 19.5
Keegan Bradley @ 40.0
Ryan Moore @ 64.0
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