NAP HAPPY NEW YEAR FROM DAQMAN: The Betdaq free tipping service features Daqman, the most consistent in the business, daring to gamble but tailoring his tips to solid winning formulae for a regular profit:
NAPS: He finished 2013 as he started it, with headlines last January of ‘nap finishes in first two 10 races in a row’ and in December of ‘10 out of 11 in the first two’, seven of them winners.
BANKER BETS: His maximum-stakes banker naps won 23 races from 28 selections during the year for 138 points profit. He will now increase the stakes to 30 points on each and target a profit of 200.
BANKER LAYS: His best sequence of lays during the year was 11 in a row. To increase the emphasis of confidence there, he will stake 20 points on big-race bankers, 10 points on routine win or place lays.
BIG-RACE VALUE: In late November, he openly challenged the Pricewise value bets in the trade paper and, since then, has had 11 returns to Pricewise 4, making 76 points profit in the process.
BIG WINS: during the year included 77-1, 40-1, 25-1, 20-1 (twice), 16-1 (six times), 14-1, 13-1, 12-1 (three times), 11-1 (twice), 10-1 (ten times) and many others.
BETDAQ means you are the winner every time. My records in the Daqman Library (green Daqman button) make pleasant reading, and I wouldn’t bet if I didn’t win money, but my job is to point out the possibilities.
If it isn’t already glaringly obvious, I can tell you now, and I will show you by my tipping, that 2014 is sure to be a feast of value on the exchange.
It used to be hard to win. Now it’s hard to lose, if you follow the simple rules: know what price you want, take any better offers, then follow up by laying off or taking alternatives that give you control of the race.
So often, it’s not betting to win with one horse but betting and laying to win one race. You can only do that if the list of offers is continually in your favour, as it is on BETDAQ, not being continuously tightened up against you, as it is with bookmakers.
At 10 a.m this morning 12 races at Cheltenham and Musselburgh were in the range 102-108% total in the orange. Knock out a favourite and you could back every other horse in the race and win money!
12.10 Cheltenham This is a cracking contest – the inaugural race was won by Bobs Worth – with last year’s winning stable represented by Ballyalton and A P McCoy, the pair having already won together at Cheltenham.
That’s a big advantage but the Racing Post base ratings had Racing Pulse 10lb in front, made up to a stone advantage by the weights.
John Quinn claims that Pulse is so fast he can’t sleep at night. But Ballyalton is the one who has put up the best race time so far. See 2.10 Musselburgh.
12.45 Cheltenham The bottom half of the handicap rarely gets a look-in. You are best to search among the better quality horses.
Strictly, CD-winner Bradley should avenge his defeat when third at levels to Alvarado in the Murphy over the course in November but first-time blinkers tell you the story.
He’s a nearly horse, and those blinkers must have a galvanizing effect on one who has promised so much but not won a race for nearly 20 months, and that a hunter-chase.
Harry Fry has made a tremendous start to his training career, with a 35% strike rate, but Mendip Express has limited experience under Rules to be top of a class-2 handicap.
De La Bech is the new kid on the block, but has a fairly static rating over hurdles and fences, and Richard Johnson rides stablemate Quinz, trying to bounce back from the doldrums, 16lb lower than two years ago.
Also down in the weights this winter is Alfie Spinner, third in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot a year ago but 12lb lower here and in good form the last twice, Tony McCoy now taking the reins.
Restless Harry was made favourite for the Mandarin, 16lb lower than when in form a year or so ago, but he unseated rider.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: This finish of closely handicapped horses may take some grinding out and A P is just the man for the job, with an in-form, well weighted Alfie Spinner (7.2 on BETDAQ as I write), who is helped by the rain.
1.20 Cheltenham (Dipper Novices’ Chase) My Way De Solzen (2007) won this on his way to triumph in the Arkle and Oscar Whisky, who has won the 2m 4f hurdle on this card (at 3.05) for the last two seasons, is looking for a leg up to Festival level here.
Taquin Du Seuil gave him weight and a beating over CD in November, when Oscar had an educational ride in his first run over fences and some racereaders described the race as ‘farcical.’
While Oscar was more fluent, back at Cheltenham nearly three weeks ago, he was again receiving weight in the tussle he won with Wonderful Charm.
Meanwhile, Taquin Du Seuil had let the form down with a moderate effort, eight lengths adrift of Hinterland at Sandown, albeit dropped back to 2m. Pass.
1.55 Cheltenham Apart from in the bog of 2007, younger horses have won this – consistently seven or lower – and Return Spring looks nicely in at the foot of the weights of the main contenders and 11lb clear of the ‘rags’.
He’s been a different horse this season, flying home here over a furlong further, and the ‘moral’, finishing fast again last time, pipped less than a length giving weight to the winner.
He improved from race to race – on a line through Southfield Theatre – and had recent winner, Mister Dillon, behind last time.
The 2012 Albert Bartlett third, Grand Vision, returns after a 656-day absence, and Whispering Gallery hasn’t been since since back-to back wins a year or so ago.
Poungach ran second to Oscar Whisky on this card two years back but, like the pacesetting The Giant Bolster, has been chasing since.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Return Spring must be backed but faces a classy individual in (Group placed on the Flat) Whispering Gallery, if the Ferguson horse is in fighting form, and the market says he is (5.4 this morning).
2.10 Musselburgh You are looking for a progressive youngster again here – aged five or six – and it would help if he had good form going right-handed.
I hope the favourite stands up or New Year’s Eve will fall on New Year’s Day. He looked a maiden certainty after running up to the very smart Ptit Zig in February but it took him four more goes, three of them as favourite, before finally beating one other at Worcester.
That’s a league apart from Ifandbutwhynot’s defeat of Neptune fourth Chatterbox at Newbury in November but is a ‘league’ 16lb of clear water as the handicapper suggests? Ifnotandwhynot prefers good ground.
Hidden Justice is the right age, running in his first hurdle since the Triumph. A Line through Deepsand suggests that he is not overburdened, with pounds in hand of Zaplamation, shorter in the betting but now aged nine.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’m taking Hidden Justice, as my Outsider Of The Day, 15.0 this morning in the face of a run on New Year’s Eve, the Champion Bumper runner-up of 2012.
The John Quinn stable with an excellent record with hurdlers of quality seems to have set its stall out today, so I shall back his Racing Pulse (12.10 Cheltenham) as a saver for this.
In the believe that New Year’s Eve needs a better surface, and that he’s shown several signs of weakness (awkward head carriage, bleeding from the nose), I’ making him a place lay, as a false favourite.
2.30 Cheltenham I won’t have Pickamus breaking into Graded level at age 11 but Carrickboy can’t be written off, though 10, only 6lb higher than for his big win at the Cheltenham Festival.
I say ‘big win’ but only two small-field winners have come out of that race from the first half-dozen to finish. No wonder Carrickboy bossed them and sprang a 50-1 surprise.
Aidan Coleman today prefers the same stable’s Drumshambo, fourth in the Grand Annual on the same Festival card and now stepping up to this trip for the first time since February, when he ran well. But he looks half a stone high in the handicap.
Kumbeshwar hasn’t done much since consecutive seconds in the Tingle Creek and the Desert Orchid chases a year or so ago, but is back on a similar mark now. If only his yard was performing better.
Ackertac has a lot of Cheltenham experience but is a bit high in the handicap. First-time blinkers will need to put a shine on Silver Roque.
Cedre Bleu looked a bridle horse at Ascot recently though, to be fair, he dosses in front. The drop back in trip will help but his only success in more than year came when blinkered first time.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’ll go with the improver, Double Ross, who was value for more than his margin of success over CD last time when the third Colour Squadron represented the form of the Power Gold Cup form of Johns Spirit in November. The softer the ground the better.
3.05 Cheltenham Annie Power!
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 20 points)
BET 3.2pts win ALFIE SPINNER (12.45 Cheltenham)
BET 4.5pts win WHISPERING GALLERY and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) RETURN SPRING (1.55 Cheltenham)
PLACE LAY (10pts) NEW YEAR’S EVE and BET 1.4pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) HIDDEN JUSTICE (2.10 Musselburgh), with 2.5pts win (stakes saver) RACING PULSE (12.10 Cheltenham).
BET 10pts win (nap) DOUBLE ROSS (2.30 Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca Racing Pulse (12.10 Cheltenham), Alfie Spinner (12.45 Cheltenham), Double Ross (2.30 Cheltenham) and Annie Power (3.05 Cheltenham)
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