IF IN DOUBT, FOLLOW SATURDAY-KING DAQMAN: Daqman, whose bets today include If In Doubt in the Lanzarote Hurdle, naps The Liquidator in the Tolworth at Kempton Park.
HE LEADS PRICEWISE 14-4: Daqman is 3-0 up on Pricewise on the 2014 big-race scene so far but a 14-4 leader since he launched his challenge to the trade-paper tipster in November.
14.5 ‘STAR’ OUTSIDER: He has a 14.5 BETDAQ offer at Warwick as his outsider of the day. Last Saturday’s was Chevise (WON 20-1) and his nap scored at 9-2.
1.35 Kempton (Tolworth Hurdle) These Cheltenham trials in the novice arena are tests of young lions. The punter, thrown in among them, must decide which one is the strongest, unaware whether the form in his hand is a potent weapon or papier-mache.
It’s a mystery melange today all right, with Garde La Victoire, Prince Siegfried and Royal Boy all rated 138, pure guesswork as to Upazo’s level and anybody’s guess whether The Liquidator is flattered by beating a 150 horse last time out.
Upazo won well within himself on the last day at Fairyhouse but his nearest pursuer when he fell, Princeton Plains, hadn’t won a hurdle since July, 2011, and an 11-year-old was left to chase Upazo home.
The Liquidator never saw another rival at Cheltenham and, if you believe his supremacy over the second, the 150-rated Sea Lord, who was attempting seven wins in a row, he has a stone and more in hand today.
Paul Nicholls swerves today’s race with Irving. Does that mean he didn’t want a renewal with Prince Siegfried (Group 3 on the Flat), who was making a race of it with Irving at Ascot when he came to grief at the last?
Nicky Henderson is 113 in this, but neither Royal Boy nor Josses Hill look up to it. Royal Boy was a well-beaten third last year and it’s unusual for horses above the age of six to win. He looked more suited to the 22f of his victory last time but the deep surface will bring his stamina into play.
Josses Hill rates a few pounds below him coming into today’s race but it was this future chaser’s first hurdle when he won at Newbury a month ago.
Garde La Victoire has shown his best form on better ground. His Cheltenham conqueror by a neck, Ballyalton, swerved this, only to be well beaten in another Neptune trial on New Year’s Day.
Upazo’s back-to-back wins at Fairyhouse were both on good-yielding and, when I fancied him at in receipt of 7lb weights, and at the attractive BETDAQ offers, to beat stablemate Briar Hill in the Slaney on the soft at Naas on Sunday, he was withdrawn.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: In beating Sea Lord at Cheltenham, The Liquidator was probably outstaying a flat-track horse destined for Aintree, and his previous hurdles win was also fell-climbing at Carlisle.
He faces a potential Willie Mullins’ star here on a flat track, and Nicky Henderson, who farms the Tolworth, is two-handed against him. But we have to go with the form we’ve got, and it clearly sides with The Liquidator.
2.10 Kempton Willie Mullins is testing the water again here, with Twinlight set to tell him whether to go for the Champion Chase (2m) or the Ryanair (2m 5f).
Twinlight followed up his Punchestown Festival success with two more this season in October and December and, though he didn’t beat much in the Hilly Way last time, Paul Townend described him as ‘classy’ and ‘exciting’.
His seven successes in Ireland have all come at 16-17f and that was the extent of the stamina of his dam’s-side relatives.
There’s been only one winner in the decade older than nine, and Captain Chris has to give weight to all bar Twinlight, but the Mullins runner is three years younger and the handicapper already has him only 3lb behind.
You have to go back to November, 2012, since Captain Chris won, a rare success on heavy, albeit in a small field, for this good-ground gelding.
Champion Court is also regarded as a top-of-the-ground performer, but a solid campaigner at today’s trip, whereas Twinlight goes over 20f for the first time as a senior and only the second time over fences.
Ghizao has always been outgunned at Graded level and has a few pounds to find on the top three. Pepite Rose steps up from handicaps with age on his side but not with the form in the book.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Twinlight has looked strong at the end of his races, jumping economically. There’s not much between the two long-term nearly horses, Captain Chris and Champion Court, at the weights.
But Captain Chris has been the bridesmaid when some great bouquets went the way of Long, Run, Cue Card and Bobs Worth and his stable is having a fine season. He’s the one to test Twinlight.
2.25 Warwick I can find just one winner in the decade carrying more than 11st and it’s unlikely to happen in the mud today though Mobaasher is the exception that proved the rule: when he scored off 11st 7lb in 2011, the going was heavy.
A quick look at the top weights this time shows that they have combined form figures of FPP, though that ‘F’ against African Gold, sets more questions than it provides answers.
He had taken the lead when coming down three out in a novice chase, having taken that route after being outrun in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham and, on a totally different terrain, in the Liverpool Hurdle.
He looks to have fallen between two stools but you’d still give him a better chance than the Albert Bartlett third of two years back, Grand Vision, who pulled up last week in his only race since. Cyrien Star also pulled up last time and Seymour Eric is another one back from chasing.
I can’t have Oscar Fortune, with Jonjo O’Neill so badly out of form. I talked about it earlier in the week, when Tony McCoy had had seven straight losers on the stable’s runners.
There’s no evidence that Bygones Sovereign can do one of those Pipe tearaway wins. He can set a target, as he did at Ascot, but this is three furlongs further and he’s been well beaten in two tries at this sort of trip.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I think the answer is to forgive Cyrien Star his last run. He came out too quickly – within a week of a spreadeagling a field over 3m at Bangor – and, though this is a better race, should be competitive at decent offers, given three weeks off this time. I took 14.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.40 Kempton (Lanzarote Hurdle) Six-year-olds have won six of the last eight, and only half a dozen older than that have scored since 1989. Just two in 17 years have carried more than 11st 2lb.
In fact, the stats say ‘If In Doubt, back Tony McCoy!’ But what did McCoy, himself, say about this one when he rode it in the Spring: ‘He’s no superstar.’
If In Doubt did his best to knock that on the head with a smooth success on his reappearance, and is set to get a pound short of a stone from Saphir Du Rheu, who trotted up at Sandown in December, and that’s partly why Paul Nicholls is claiming off him.
Another reason is because the Sandown second, Home Run, is now 7lb better off.
The handicapper reacted to Junction Fourteen’s Kempton spetacular with a 16lb sledgehammer, whereas Spirit Of Shankly was penalised only 3lb for beating a subsequent 20-lengths winner at Haydock.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Philip Hobbs has already beaetn Spirit Of Shankly with Royal Regatta, and If In Doubt has caught McCoy’s eye, despite his slight disparagement during the youngster’s development. Saphir Du Rheu has to be the alternative.
3.35 Warwick (Classic) This marathon had winners like D’Argent, Baron Windrush and West End Rocker making waves in April’s Grand National market but all failed to complete in their subsequent attempts on Aintree.
This clearly isn’t a National trial then, as some elements of the Press suggest this morning, and previous winners generally had not scored beyond 27f.
There has been no winner above 11st 7lb on heavy ground. Hey Big Spender won it on good to soft with a bigger burden in 2012, but his big-race form on heavy is PP0P in the last two years.
Carruthers loves the mud but it’s four years since he won off a rating like today’s. Master Overseer’s 1P1P, ok we’ll try blinkers, tells you all you need to know about this quirky sort.
Vesper Bell did his Grand National chances no harm in the Bechers, tipping up at the first. It also means he’s fresh for today, and the Press called it ‘cruel denial’ when he was just headed at the Punchestown Festival over 3m 6f on heavy, giving 18lb to the winner
Vesper Bell was well behind Same Difference at Cheltenham but two things were against him: a sound surface, and a shorter distance.
Noble Legend is a galloper who should enjoy the step up in trip, has a 50% record and has won on the ground. Royale Knight much prefers the going on top. Major Malarkey is PPP200PF on soft-heavy since the start of 2011.
Safran De Cotte is an in-and-out performer and a fine jumper, though there’s some doubt about today’s trip. He and Emperor’s Choice were both reported ‘never travelling’ at Haydock in December.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Venetia Williams won this last year and Emperor’s Choice (12.5 on BETDAQ) loves the mud, though has to bounce back from Haydock in December.
That Haydock race also saw Safran De Cotte run too badly to be true and it could be that there was false ground on the Haydock track that day.
The most likely winner this afternoon is Vesper Bell, normally an accurate jumper, who was robbed on the line of a race like this on similar ground in the Spring.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8pts win (nap) THE LIQUIDATOR (1.35 Kempton)
BET 7.5pts win TWINLIGHT (2.10 Kempton)
BET 3.7pts win SAPHIR DU RHEU and 2.8pts win IF IN DOUBT (2.40 Kempton)
BET 1.5pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) CYRIEN STAR (2.25 Warwick)
BET 2.7pts win VESPER BELL and 1.7pts win and place EMPEROR’S CHOICE (3.35 Warwick)
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