The Queen Mother Champion Chase is run on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival and for many is the highlight of the meeting. Twelve fences are jumped over the two mile trip and much emphasis is put on jumping technique and speed, in this Grade One contest.
The race has been won by many an equine star and none more so than last year’s winner Sprinter Sacre. At the start of the National Hunt season, this race looked the easiest to assess for the winner at the Festival, with Sprinter Sacre looking a racing certainty bar a mishap.
Unfortunately there has been a mishap along the way, and the Nicky Henderson trained superstar is absent after a heart scare when last seen on a racetrack, at the backend of December.
With “Sacre” gone, who is going to triumph in a race that looks to be on paper one of the worst renewals seen in many a year. That’s not to say there all bad horses, but the strength in depth is not there and hopefully the one maybe “Superstar” will emerge.
Contenders:
Arvika Ligeonniere
With an official rating of 166, this French Bred 9-year-old looks to have a good chance on paper. A winner of seven of his ten chase starts, the son of Arvico is a talented individual and with connections of Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh, the gelding has to be respected.
There is one big problem though, Cheltenham, and the fact it is a left-handed track. The Rich Ricci owned contender has a less than convincing record when going left-handed. Form figures read, 4/1/F/PU/3 since joining Willie Mullins.
Arvika, has mopped up numerous victories dossing around in small fields on right-handed tracks, like Fairyhouse and Punchestown and has been a favourite of mine since coming on the scene in 2010 but all major victories have come going right handed.
It’s hard to ignore also, that two of those losses have come at Cheltenham. He finished fourth in the 2010 Albert Bartlett and Pulled-UP in The Arkle Chase last year. In a race were jumping and the ability to handle the track are a must for me, the gelding cannot be trusted, however in a substandard year if he gets his act together, the Mullins trained horse could run a big race.
For me though, I find it unlikely and the gelding is passed over as a potential winner.
Sire De Grugy
With the father and son partnership of Gary and Jamie Moore, this 8-year-old will take all the beating for me. If the son of My Risk was handled by a Mullins, Henderson or Nicholls, he’d be trading a lot shorter than the 3.05 on Betdaq at the time of writing. The absence of Sprinter Sacre has left this race at his mercy.
His knockers will point to his Cheltenham record of two losses from two attempts but unlike Avrika Ligeonniere he has gone close on both attempts at the track.
The gelding has improved considerably since his 2L defeat at the hands of Captain Conan in 2012 and ran a good race when second to Kid Cassidy back in November. Kid Cassidy received 10lb that day and Sire De Grugy didn’t jump his usual best after stumbling at the fourth fence and I confidently predict that the placing will be reversed come the big day.
It is however, his victories this season that lead me to believe the French Bred is the one they all have to beat come March. After winning at Sandown and Kempton, he then murdered a good yard stick in Hidden Cyclone by 11 lengths at Ascot. His jumping was superb and if in the same mood at the Festival it will take a good one to beat him.
With no real strength in dept in the race, I cannot see anything beating Gary Moore’s contender barring a mishap, and he can become the new star of the two mile racing brigade, for the time being anyway, whilst Sprinter is away.
Captain Conan
The Nicky Henderson trained 7-year-old for me, has been a disappointment up to now. Having looked a top novice chaser from November 2012, beat Sire De Grugy and Hinterland, the son of Kingsala has flattered to deceive since then.
A sound jumper, you could make a case that he be better over a longer trip. Travelled very well in last year’s Jewson Chase over 2m4f until folding on the run in and it is my opinion the gelding is just below top class. Well and truly put in his place at Sandown by Sir De Grugy earlier in the season, place prospects at best await.
Baily Green
There is no doubt that Baily Green’s best run to date has come at Cheltenham in last year’s Arkle, when second to the hugely talented Simonsig. The Queen Mother is normal progression after that race, so this guy has to be considered in a sub standard renewal.
The fact that Mouse Morris trains the 8-year-old, tells me he has trained him specifically with this race in mind and don’t be surprised if vast improvement is forthcoming now back at Cheltenham.
The son of King’s Theatre needs to improve on this year’s performances, but a big run may well be on the cards. Place prospects if recapturing last year’s zip.
Kid Cassidy
Like Captain Conan, this son of Beneficial is trained by Nicky Henderson and may represent the trainer’s best chance of winning in Sprinter Sacre’s absence.
Since beating Sir De Grugy in the above mentioned event at Cheltenham, the JP McManus owned gelding has had just one run, finishing last of seven at Leopardstown behind Benefficient.
If you forgive him for that effort, a case can be made on his run with Sire De Grugy. However, I feel Sire De Grugy has improved considerably since they met and when you look at Kid Cassidy’s performances since March 2012, it has been a bit in and out.
The “Kid” has run well at Cheltenham, was second in last year’s Grand Annual so completely ruling him out would be dangerous and he may well be there at the depth. He has posted a top rating of 156, so considerable improvement is required to win, even in a below par year.
Sizing Europe
What can you say about the gallant 12-year-old? A previous winner of this race in 2011, the De Bromhead trained chaser has also finished second twice, last year and in 2012.
Connections have decided to go here instead of the Ryanair Chase after the withdrawal of last year’s winner, and who can blame them. In a non vintage year anything can happen, and if one or two go astray he could well take advantage.
Some facts are hard to ignore though;
No 12-year-old has won this event since 1977, Skymass trained by Brian Lusk and the only successful 11-year-old in the last thirty eight year’s was the hugely talented Moscow Flyer, back in 2005.
This race is for the younger generation and it will take something extraordinary to happen for “Sizing” to triumph once again.
Benefficient would be interesting if turning out but the Ryanair looks the more likely target even with Sprinter Sacre out. The AJ Martin trained 8-year-old won the Jewson twelve months back over 2m4f and the Ryanair over 2m5f looks the better option.
Al Ferof and Alderwood look doubtful, Alderwood through injury and Nicholls preferring the Ryanair for Al Ferof.
Hinterland is the other one of note. A second season novice, it is not beyond all possibilities that Paul Nicholls runs him here instead of the Arkle Chase; believe it or not, the Arkle may be a far more competitive race than this.
I’d be surprised however, if he does run his 6-year-old here, but you never know and if turning out he could run a good race.
Summary
I have looked at all angles to try and find a winner other than Sire De Grugy, but I can’t. Barring a mishap, the Gary Moore trained gelding can win this race and win it well.
Of the others Baily Green, Kid Cassidy and Captain Conan may fare the best, with only Baily Green in anyway offering an alternative to the favourite.
Sizing Europe winning would bring the house down, but I think the house is safe for now but he will be there or there abouts, as Cheltenham is in his blood.
Wagga Man’s Verdict
Sire De Grugy
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