DAQMAN FIRES IN 15 NAPS OUT OF 18: Daqman’s still burning. This wheel’s on fire – rolling down the road to profit – with a staggering 15 (yes, FIFTEEN!) winning naps in 18 betting days (plus one non-runner). That’s a massive 83% winners in the 19 days.
EIGHT BANKERS IN A ROW: 464 POINTS PROFIT: Seven-lengths-plus winner Arctic Fire (WON 4-5) was in cruise control as he landed winning banker eight out of eight. If all 18 naps had been backed to a notional 20-win each, the profit would be 464 points. The sequence is:
WON 6-1 ANIPA
2nd 11-4 Pearl Princess
WON 4-5 PROVIDENT SPIRIT (banker)
WON 1-1 TOORMORE (banker)
WON 2-1 LITIGANT
WON 5-1 SEA SHANTY
0 6-1 Specialagent Alfie
WON 7-4 TOKYO JAVILEX
WON 4-11 CALL THE COPS (banker)
WON 5-4 UT MAJEUR AULMES (banker)
WON 8-13 MUSIC MASTER (banker)
WON 1-2 WESTERN HYMN (banker)
0 11-4 BAYAN
WON 5-2 I’M YOURS
WON 5-4 MAN OF HARLECH
WON 1-1 LITTLE BIG MAN (banker)
WON 11-8 BEAT THAT
WON 4-5 ARCTIC FIRE (banker)
TODAY’S NAP IS AN 11-2 SHOT: Daqman naps at Punchestown on a 6.8 BETDAQ offer this morning! It’s a ‘job’ horse for Barry Geraghty, he says.
HERE’S YOUR 2,000 GUINEAS ABC
It’s 2,000 Guineas day and Daqman checks out all the runners with this easy ABC: the key is..
A: Must have been placed at Group level (90% in decade)
B: Already won at 7f or 1m (90%)
C: Sire was placed in a European Guineas (73%)
D: Had his final run after last July (100%)
E: Irish trained (77%)
F: Rated 115 to 124 (some notional)
This is thoroughbred praise, indeed. ‘Great cruising speed. Beautiful action. Best I’ve trained. Superb mix of speed and stamina’. And that’s just the first four horses in my ABC on what could be a classic Classic for the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket this afternoon.
ABCDF Kingston Hill
Ticks most of the boxes but firm ground would be a negative for a son of Mastercraftsman. Won the Racing Post Trophy and a Group 3 over course and distance, although second, third, fourth and fifth at Doncaster won only maidens at best. Has a great cruising speed.
ABDEF Australia
Talked up as ‘the best I have trained’ by Aidan O’Brien, this winner of the Breeders Cup Trial at Leopardstown – knocked Free Eagle off his perch – has ‘something different about him and is very special,’ says the normally quiet and composed master of Ballydoyle.
ABDEF War Command
The eventual Breeders Cup Juvenile winner was not Australia but Outstrip, who had finished only third to War Command when they met in the Dewhurst at today’s venue, Newmarket. War Command shows a beautiful action on fast ground.
ABDF Kingman
Last year’s Solario Stakes winner – producing a speed finish after slow early sections – Kingman slammed the Greenham field this Spring, Frankel style with a gunbarrel drive. Related to a Nunthorpe winner and an Oaks winner, a mix of speed and stamina that looks superb on this powerful colt.
ABDF Outstrip
Holds the keys to the colts’ collateral form. Beat True Story first time up, ran a narrow second to Toormore in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, beat The Grey Gatsby in the Champagne Stakes, was third to War Command in the Dewhurst and won the Breeders Cup Juvenile.
ABDF Toormore
Powered past Outstrip in the Vintage Stakes and slammed the Phoenix and Railway Stakes winner, Sudiman, in the National Stakes, all top trials. But his Craven success last month over The Grey Gatsby was not convincing.
Aidan O’Brien’s line to him, and to the collateral key, Outstrip, is Giovanni Boldini, third in the National Stakes and second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.
ABD Noozhoh Canarias/Charm Spirit
Second and third in the Grand Criterium at Longchamp last October, they tick the same boxes here. Charm Spirit won the Prix Djebel trial last month, while Noozhoh Canarias prepped in a small conditions race in Spain.
ACD Night Of Thunder
Impressive winner of both his juvenile starts but left for dead by the Kingman power surge in the Greenham. A Dubawi, he might prefer some cut in the ground
ACD The Grey Gatsby
Nearly horse of last year’s trials and same again last month when runner-up to Toormore in the Craven Stakes, even though Toormore ran below par.
BCD Master The World
Almost last in the Fielden Stakes to runaway winner True Story but canny trainer David Elsworth has been known to pop an outsider into the Classic frame.
BD Bookrunner
A winner over 1m 2f as a juvenile, he was inconvenienced by the slow gallop in Charm Spirit’s Djebel. A fast pace and the extra furlong makes him an interesting outsider for top jock Lemaire.
BD Ertijaal
Has done nothing wrong but back-to-back wins this year mark him down as Listed level and have added only 7lb to his ratings status, still well short of what is required.
BD Shifting Power
Unbeaten stablemate of Toormore, showed courage to win the Free Handicap but that is Listed level and the blanket finish failed to single him out as material for this Classic.
THE BATTLE FOR VALUE: DAQMAN 63 v. PRICEWISE 16
Daqman is leading Pricewise 24-4 in the current season, 63 returns to 16 overall in the five months or so since he challenged the Racing Post’s value column.
Now read his verdicts, including the Guineas and the other Pricewise races, the 2.05 at Newmarket, 4.55 and 5.30 Punchestown and 11.24 Churchill Downs.
Daqman is in form on the Flat with Flippant (WON 6-1) and Etaab (WON 8-13) yesterday. He’s had six successful big-race lays in a row.
PALACE HOUSE A LAUNCH PAD FOR FLYING MACHINES
2.05 Newmarket Four-year-olds lead those a year older by 6-2 since 2006 but, though it’s clear that these age groups invariably win – seven out of eight and carrying 9st or less (8-9) – punters keep getting it wrong, with SPs from 13-2 to 12-1; no winning jolly since 2005.
Sir Michael Stoute trains lightly-raced Bold Sniper for The Queen but the stable has been in and out this season. A hood got him off the mark but his form stabilised, with only steady improvement (9lb) from his three last starts.
But that was better than Rock Choir, who plateaued, with his rating on 94 the last three runs, also hooded at times. Ajmany did ‘nothing’ after his first win in blinkers.
Trumpet Major drops into handicaps after 15 Group races, has won first or second start every year, and had a pipeopener over a trip too far at Kempton.
A vote for Farraaj (pun intended) means you think he can make up eight lengths on Trumpet Major on Sandown Cup form a year ago: he’s been given 4lb with which to do it, but his rating fell off 3lb after that race.
Niceofyoutotellme goes well fresh, Roserrow is in form. Buranon was denied a run in the Newbury Spring Cup. The giant, but well related Big Baz could be anything off a low mark but, as a son of Pivotal, may need a bit of cut.
VERDICT: A puzzle inside a conundrum. Bold Sniper tries a shorter trip but was given a St Leger entry last season. Niceofyoutotellme also needs further. Trumpet Major would have eaten these alive a year or so ago.
I’ll take Rock Choir (8.8 on BETDAQ this morning) for two reasons. The stable is in fine form (on a hat-trick here) and last season she was always labelled ‘one for next year’, a full sister to Chorist who improved to win the Pretty Polly aged five.
2.40 Newmarket (Palace House Stakes) This race is a ramp for the hottest of flying machines: July Cup, Kings Stand, Abbaye.. all have fallen to this winner.
Sole Power won it last year on firmish ground as a prelude to the Kings Stand; second was Kingsgate Native, who immediately after won a Group 2. Sole Power is Native’s nemesis and age is now catching up with him.
His nine years didn’t prevent a successful prep for Eton Rifles in France but that win, and his best form, is on soft-heavy ground.
Though Justineo’s firm-ground CD win was not up to this level, the handicapper rates him 108 and he should have improved from four to five.
Pearl Secret won first time back but that was on soft ground and he beat only a 92-rated. Pearl Secret was third to Sole Power in the Kings Stand off 109 and this entire has been much the same horse in nearly two years now.
Moviesta moved up more than a stone last summer, winning the King George sprint at Goodwood but Bryan Smart has had a poor year so far and the gelding doesn’t usually do much on his reappearance.
VERDICT: Three-year-olds do well in this – 111400 – and the Cornwallis winner, Hot Streak (7.0 on BETDAQ), is the one for me, as the new flying machine, though wouldn’t want the ground too firm, which would let in Justineo.
The last two three-year-old winners had also won the Cornwallis. The 1-2-3: Hot Streak 1, Sole Power 2, Justineo 3.
3.10 Newmarket (Jockey Club Stakes) The last three winners were four-year-olds off 110, 112 and 113. Gospel Choir has had a run and races off 110 but the handicapper says he’s 10lb inferior to Irish Derby winner Trading Leather.
Sir Michael Stoute may have improved Bold Sniper (2.05), as is his wont with older horses, but Gospel Choir is much more likely to be the right material for his expertise.
The gelding, winner second run back in both of his two last seasons, has shot forward a pound short of a stone in three runs since September, one of them his reappearance race over too short a trip.
Trading Leather was one of the best of last year’s Classic crop but has always needed his first run back. Penglai Pavilion, fifth in the Arc, may need rain.
VERDICT: I can’t nap Trading Leather with Gospel Choir about and, in the circumstances of the race. Gospel Choir at 5.8 is the wrong price.
3.50 Newmarket (2,000 Guineas, see ABC Guide above)
REJECTED: Charm Spirit, Ertijaal, Kingman, Kingston Hill, Master Of The World, Outstrip, Shifting Power, The Grey Gatsby and Toormore are all counted out.
Well, I have to find some way through this sensational field of Classic thoroughbred horseflesh. How else can we pick one (or two) without some kind of edge, however tenuous.
That edge may be (maybe!) that no winner since Zafonic in 20 years has had a stallion stamina index less than 9.0 furlongs, and most had much, much more (up to 11.7).
REJECTED A rating of 110 or less also gets the reject stamp. Out go Bookrunner, Master The World and Night Of Thunder, of those still in the running.
VERDICT: I’m left watching War Command win, though I think Toormore will improve on his Craven, and it seems madness to leave out the Greenham winner, Kingman, and the ‘best I’ve ever trained’ Australia.
Ah well, I’m back with the four market leaders, and the QI answer to this Guineas is: Knowbody Knows until it’s run.
Toormore may just fall short and it makes sense of this race if we view Kingston Hill and Australia as Derby colts.
My final vote relates to the going: the sires of War Command, Ertijaal and Outstrip have their biggest share of winners on firm, and the Coventry and Dewhurst winner, War Command, has a superb action on top of the ground.
THE 1-2-3: War Command 1, Kingman 2, Australia 3.
THE BET: Win and place War Command at 8.8 on BETDAQ as I write, saver Kingman.
PUNCHESTOWN: Annie Power (3.45) should be suited by the in-between trip, but a better price is Tiger Roll (4.20) to follow up his Triumph Hurdle.
The runner-up that day, Kentucky Hyden, pulls to the left and this is a right-handed track, while the third, Guitar Pet, has run and won at Aintree, so this is his third festival and his defeat of Tiger Roll at Leopardstown was a bit of Barry Geraghty poaching on ground the tiger didn’t much like.
Chartreux (4.55) was always better than the bare form and finally got it together at Sandown. A fair bet at 7.6.
But the job horse in this Pat Taaffe Chase (‘look behind you Willie Robinson’) is no doubt Heaney (6.8), having his first run for four months when not a bad effort in the Irish national.
This Flemensfirth seven-year-old is a horse for the future, if only he can get good ground. He’s got it today and he’s got Barry Geraghty in the saddle.
Willie Mullins is currently 11211 in the handicap hurdle (5.30), the winners shared between three riders. His nine-horse blanket declaration should smother the opposition today. To oppose him would be plain Varmy!
It could be Upsie day, see! But the one I like at a price (19.0 on BETDAQ) is Bally Longford, a horse for the better ground who ran with promise on his comeback at Fairyhouse and has bags of stamina on the dam’s side.
KENTUCKY DERBY: Santa Anita Derby winner, California Chrome, trained by 77-year-old Art Sherman, is all the rage but 23 of the last 24 at round about his price have all been beaten.
The last three winners have started from gates 15 or higher, and that block of seven stalls has a 50% record. I’d like to see Gary Stevens, on Candy Boy, join the hall of fame of four-time Derby winners, alongside Eddie Arcaro (never saw him) and Willie Shoemaker (saw him walking under the rail!).
But Candy Boy was thrashed by California Chrome at Santa Anita.
Ride On Curlin runs poorly on today’s track and Wicked Strong doesn’t like the kickback, so I’m having a nickel and a dime on the improver, Intense Holiday (13.0 on BETDAQ).
Jorge Velazquez (won in 2011) rides the colt for Todd Fletcher, who won this Run for the Roses for the first time in 2010.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.5pts win ROCK CHOIR (2.05 Newmarket)
BET 3.3pts win HOT STREAK and 1.4pts win and place JUSTINEO (2.40 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win GOSPEL CHOIR and 3.5pts win (stakes saver) TRADING LEATHER (3.10 Newmarket)
BET 2.7pts win WAR COMMAND and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) KINGMAN (3.50 Newmarket)
BET 8pts win TIGER ROLL (4.20 Punchestown)
BET 3.4pts win (nap) HEANEY (4.55 Punchestown)
BET 1.1pts win and place BALLY LONGFORD (5.30 Punchestown)
BET 1.6pts win INTENSE HOLIDAY (11.24 Churchill Downs)
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