SEVEN LAYS LANDED IN A ROW: DAQMAN’s nap was a non-runner yesterday, so that his score remains on 19 from 27 (a 70% strike rate), but he continued another sequence – his lays – with 10 points on Mariners Moon (unplaced evens favourite):
WON DYNASTE (2nd 13-8 favourite)
WON BURTON PORT (unseated rider 16-1)
WON MONBEG DUDE (unplaced 16-1)
WON MUTASHADED (unplaced 3-1)
WON MY TENT OR YOURS (3rd evens favourite)
WON QUEVEGA (2nd 9-10 favourite)
WON MARINERS MOON (unplaced evens favourite)
NOW A 58.0 EPSOM OUTSIDER: DAQMAN, who took offers of 39.0 on the Grand National runner-up, Balthazar King (2nd 14-1), and also had the 40-1 second in the Great Met, goes for a third-time-lucky super-punt at 58.0 on BETDAQ for the Epsom Derby.
DIVE IN ON KINGFISHER’S DERBY OFFERS
Am I alone among tipsters? (I hope so; it gives me better odds). I mean in thinking that Kingfisher ran really well in the Chester Vase. Jockey Joseph O’Brien said that, off a slow pace, the colt took time to unwind and was still ‘a big, raw horse.’
Though Australia was very much the Ballydoyle Derby hope, he said, Kingfisher had massive scope for improvement, and would go on from there.
He is a Galileo (say no more) out of a mare by Halling who, in the months after he won the Cambridgeshire, made a mighty leap forward, taking back-to-back Group 1 races the following summer.
Now Aidan O’Brien has affirmed faith in Kingfisher by naming him among his Epsom Derby quartet, revealing that the stable’s slow start to the season was due to the cough.
I took offers of 58.0 Kingfisher on BETDAQ last night. He was 20-1 in a place with bookmakers and 33-1 with the best-informed, Ladbrokes, though bigger elsewhere.
Kingfisher needs a fast Halling-type leap forward to figure in the Derby finish but is a horse to follow for the future.
ALL SYSTEMS GO FOR BUSATTO AT BEVERLEY
New readers start here. I regularly repeat my mantra about class in racing. One of its rules (more another time) was taught me personally by Paul Major, the professional who wrote the best-selling book, Horse Sense. Not below C level!
He wasn’t referring to the water table but to betting on horses below class 3 (which was class C before graded racing): they simply don’t run two races alike.
Look out for improvers emerging from class 4 and even lower but, taking an all-aged race of handicappers below class 3, you can usually make certain judgments before you even look at the form.
One is that such animals are rarely capable physically of putting back-to-back wins together. They have short peaks of fitness, whereas quality horses can maintain a high for longer periods.
Almost always when I give examples of a ‘system’, the exception proves the rule – the scrambled egg factor – but I shall be opposing Correggio (4.00) at Beverley, knowing that the rule must win twice, as I will reveal.
Unbelievably, with thousands of maidens out there waiting for a race, the planners could manage only one Flat meeting today to four jumpers in England. Killarney is mixed.
Talking of horses to follow (Kingfisher), put Love Rory in your notebook. I had a bit on him win and place for the Killarney National yesterday, but with reservations that stopped me tipping him.
How could a horse emerging through the cross-country ranks find the speed to win at Killarney on a flat and sharpish left-hander, compared with the banks fences of the right-handed galloping track at Punchestown?
Answer: he didn’t. But he nearly did. It was, as expected, a case of waiting and hoping to use his stamina at the finish. Sure enough, he was a running-on second.
That he’s only six and is trained by Enda Bolger tells you all you need to know for the big cross-country races of the future, alongside the same stable’s champion, On The Fringe, now nine but with a couple of years in him before Love Rory takes over his mantle.
Back to Correggio (4.00 Beverley). So far he’s a Pontefract-only winner, with a 0-5 record clockwise, and also against him at right-handed Beverley is today’s soft ground, though a drying day is forecast.
But, hold on, there are two more last-time winners in the race (yes, my rule is under siege here), one of them Ted’s Brother. He’s up in the weights and up a grade, a kiss-of-death combination at this level, though Conor Beasley’s claim helps a bit.
The third winner, Baraweez, has raced on the tight right-hand bends of Longchamp and should be ok on the ground. With only six starts on the clock, he is the most likely improver among the trio of winners.
Dakota Canyon is still a maiden in handicaps; course-specialist Toto Skyllachy has been out of sorts, as has the other nine-year-old, Al Muheer, though he’s been gifted the plum draw in stall one.
As I said earlier, my winners-are-anathema rule for low-level racing must profit twice in this race, even if one of the winning trio scores today.
‘Systems’, whether stats, class rules, the draw – what you like – are there as guides, and useful ones, too, sometimes, but they often hide anomalies, such as they do in this.
At least two horses that won last time out are certain losers, and seemingly add fuel to the system, but the figures will be spurious. They can’t all win!
But how about if all three lose? And there’s a disguised horse in there, lightly raced, well drawn? Trot forward, Busatto.
Mark Johnston’s front-runner (aren’t they all) has been unable to last out over 10 and 11.5 furlongs but – dropped back to the mile here, albeit a stiff one – he could hang on in there at 10.5 on BETDAQ this morning, And, heh, the system will be proved right, after all!
But, just in case one of the winners win, I shall nap Busatto for a place, and double my stake on the place part, with three chances of a return from nine runners.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each win bet is staked for 20 points profit at morning BETDAQ offers, unless stated)
BET 5pts win TRIGGERS BROOM (2.30 Beverley)
BET 2pts win and 4pts place (place nap) BUSATTO (4.00 Beverley)
BET: 1.8pts win and place BADGER WOOD (7.05 Southwell)
ANTE-POST: BET (to win 50pts): 0.85pts win KINGFISHER (Epsom Derby, June 7)
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