We’re two weeks into the 2014 NFL season and things have been predictably unpredictable.
As bettors, our job is to sort through it all and see these teams for what they really are. We fail miserably at that sometimes, but occasionally we may have a unique insight that is overlooked by the general public, giving us the mythical “edge”. In that vein, we examine four teams who have surprised people with their play so far this season, whether good or bad, and try to determine whether the sharp bettor should be “buying” or “selling” them:
*ATS= against the spread
Buffalo Bills (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
Results: Week 1 beat Chicago 23-20 (Chi -7), Week 2 beat Miami 29-10 (Buf -1)
This Week: Home vs. San Diego (Buf -2.5)
The Bills, projected by many to finish last in the AFC East (again), have looked like a quality team over the season’s first two weeks. Easy covers in their first two games, including a shocking win as a 7-point ‘dog in Chicago, has surely garnered Buffalo a modicum of respect in the betting marketplace, but they’re just a 2.5-point home favorite over San Diego this week. Should we jump on this team?
Verdict: As of now, I’m SELLING the Bills, primarily because I’m not a believer in their quarterback, E.J. Manuel. They’ve been able to hide Manuel so far this season (he’s averaging just 184.5 pass yards per game) because of their highly effective rushing attack, which is among the league’s best. However, their next three opponents– San Diego, Houston, and Detroit– all defend the run very well, so the offensive burden may shift to Manuel. If that happens, I believe the Bills are at a disadvantage. However, this team has an underrated defense and they can run the ball, so they should not be taken lightly.
Houston Texans (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
Results: Week 1 beat Washington 17-6 (Hou -3), Week 2 beat Oakland 30-14 (Hou -3)
This Week: Away vs. NY Giants (Hou -2)
Houston won just two games in 2013 but they’ve yet to lose this year thanks to a tough defense and a friendly schedule (how often is a 2-14 team favored in their first two games the following season?). The offense is still a bit of a question mark, but it’s not like the Texans are treated like a great team, either, as they’re just 2-point favorites this week over a winless Giants team that hasn’t shown much of a pulse. Can bettors trust these Texans?
Verdict: This is a tough one for me because I picked the Texans to be a surprise team this season and contend for a Wild Card berth, but I have NOT been impressed with their offense (at all) despite the positive outcome of their first two games. So, I do believe in this team to an extent– I recognize that they have an excellent defense and I think I’m higher on quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick than most people– but my belief has a definite ceiling, as I do think they will be below average offensively. So… BUY ’em while they’re still somewhat lightly regarded, then SELL ’em once people start the “legitimate contender” talk. That’s the plan.
Indianapolis Colts (0-2, 1-1 ATS)
Results: Week 1 lost to Denver 31-24 (Den -7.5), Week 2 lost to Philadelphia 30-27 (Ind -3)
This Week: Away vs. Jacksonville (No line yet on BETDAQ, Ind -7 in Vegas)
Prior to the season the Colts were considered a virtual lock to win the AFC South, but they’ve surrendered 61 combined points over the first two weeks and now sit 2 games back of division rival Houston. Some are beginning to doubt this team, citing their numerous close wins last season (as evidence that they weren’t/aren’t really that good) and their leaky defense, but is that wise?
Verdict: Most people assumed the Colts would cruise to a division title, and they still may. However, their defense is an issue. They still aren’t able to stop the run and they’ve allowed 590 combined passing yards over the last two weeks… that’s not championship-level defense, regardless of who you play. That being said, let’s not get too crazy here. So far this season the Colts have faced Denver and Philadelphia, who ranked #1 (Denver) and #2 (Philly) in total offense in 2013. Let’s see what that Indy defense looks like against the bumbling Jags this week… I have a hunch they’ll morph into the ’85 Bears. My opinion of the Colts has not changed at all after two games, so I think the two losses are good from a “value” perspective. I’m BUYING this team.
New Orleans Saints (0-2, 0-2 ATS)
Results: Week 1 lost to Atlanta 37-34 (NO -3.5), Week 2 lost to Cleveland 26-24 (NO -6.5)
This Week: Home vs. Minnesota (No line yet on BETDAQ, NO -10.5 in Vegas)
The Saints were a popular Super Bowl pick heading into the season, and why not? After all, they were the only team in the league to rank in the top-4 in both total offense and total defense last season, and their reliably explosive offense returns intact. The defense, though, has been terrible through two weeks, leaving the Saints in an 0-2 hole. Are they going to get things rolling in the right direction, or will this team continue to be overvalued?
Verdict: Did the clock strike midnight on the New Orleans defense, or what? Back in 2012 they allowed more yards than any team in NFL history, but Rob Ryan engineered a remarkable turnaround last season and the Saints finally had a defense that could measure up to their offense. Now, though, they seem to have regressed badly, especially in the secondary, where they’ve allowed a staggering 646 passing yards (!) in two games. However, they’ve yet to play at home, where they’ve traditionally been brilliant under Payton (20-5 ATS their last 25 games), and their offense is still humming along at an elite pace. I think it’s a little early to jump off the Saints bandwagon, so I’m BUYING them as a good bet as the season moves forward, starting this week, when I expect them to absolutely pummel Minnesota.
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