NOW IT’S SEVEN LAYS IN A ROW: Daqman danced his way to seven consecutive winning lays yesterday when Waltzing Cat (unplaced 15-8 favourite) failed to reach the first three on the Betdaq-sponsored card at Kempton Park last night.
FIVE CONSECUTIVE LOSING FAVOURITES: It was the fifth favourite in a row to come under the Daqman cosh. Here are the last seven successes for 70 points profit:
* Waltzing Cat (unplaced 15-8 favourite), Kempton Sept 21
* Half A Billion (3rd 7-4 favourite), Beverley Sept 20
* Deliberation (unplaced 9-4 favourite), Hamilton Sept 18
* Labarinto (unplaced 7-2 favourite), Newbury Sept 17
* York Glory (unplaced 11-2 favourite), Doncaster Sept 10
* Zero Money (unplaced 7-1), Doncaster Sept 10
* Catchanova (unplaced 4-1), Kempton Sept 7
2.10 Newmarket: Godolphin’s trainers have won both runnings of this, and both are represented today. Almaas is the one with experience – third in a Kempton maiden – and has Frankie Dettori up.
On breeding, you would expect Anomaly to want some cut in the ground. Prince Of Orange is by Shamardal, who also got Casamento, winner of the Prince Of Orange Stakes at Longchamp!
Prince Of Orange, Rye House, Stature, Dandy, Engrossing, Moonship and Weaam are entered in the Derby but, significantly, none is engaged in the big two-year-old races of October.
2.45 Newmarket: If only Magic City would start his races as well as he finishes them: ‘edged’ right’ then ‘slowly into stride’ followed by ‘dwelt’ are racereader’s notes against him for his last three races.
In one of those races at Doncaster he might have beaten Ghostwriting and is 6lb better off here for three lengths, but also in his Doncaster notes are ‘not clear run’ and ‘hampered’.
Punters who infer that he is a better bet than Ghostwriting today might easily see a fourth consecutive disappointment. ‘Bridesmaids’ which have won only their maiden litter the racecourse with dud betting tickets.
Unlucky horses can even make headlines – see ‘The Unluckiest Horse In Racing’ in the Post today – but they rarely make money.
However, there is another puzzle about Magic City. Richard Hughes’ fans will want to be on, since that last ‘unlucky’ run, was his first ride back on the beast since taking on top-notch opposition in races won by Frederick Engels and Pyman’s Theory.
Why was Richard Hughes so confident – indeed, overconfident – in the Ghostwriting race, content to keep him out the back after that ‘dwelt’ start? It suggests that he’d lost form at home but regained it by the time of that race.
So, since I can’t find a serious threat to the front two in the betting, ‘I’m out’, as Deborah Meaden might say (isn’t she lovely). I’m not laying Magic City at 5.8, and I can’t back Ghostwriting at 4.2, giving weight away all round.
3.20 Newmarket (Princess Royal Stakes): Imperial Pippin and Spin have also won only their maiden; both have already contrived to be beaten in Listed races like this one, as have Bramalea, Roxy Flyer, and Mohedian Lady.
Three-year-olds are six out of nine in the race but the negative form leaves you thinking that Brushing – already a Listed winner over the trip on firm ground- could outrun them, if returning to form. However, he was well beaten in this race last year.
Spin is almost certain to attack from the front and Parvana likes to lead, so it should be a fast-run race, with Fallon in fine form for a late swoop on Mohedian Lady. The one I ‘can’t see’ is the favourite, Cill Rialaig, with Listed form of 0033 and six years old now.
3.55 Newmarket (Somerville Tattersall Stakes): Richard Hughes is bidding for his third win in six years, riding Crius for Richard Hannon who won it with a 33-1 outsider in 2009.
The quality of the race has faded since Milk It Mick (2003) went on to win the Dewhurst and Aussie Rules (2005) the French Guineas the following year. Nothing since has gone in beyond Group 3.
Crius, Farraaj, Storming Bernard and Zip Top have all led their field so, despite the stats, the winner could be something to take out of the race for the future.
If I had to choose that horse now, it would not be Farraaj. I would be choosing from Crusade and Electrician.
Farraaj’s breeding shouts ‘precocious two-year-old’, whereas Crusade and Electrician have forward-looking pedigrees, with Electrician related to Classic animals, though Electrician’s lack of entries is disappointing.
Crusade is interesting but can we believe the form? He easily beat Pearl In The Sand at The Curragh, which theoretically puts him on a par with Born To Sea, the Sea The Stars half-brother.
Born To Sea, already 2,000 Guineas favourite in the crazy world of bookmaker betting, also beat Pearl In The Sand in a more recent Curragh race.
Crusade is entered in the Middle Park and Dewhurst, for which another Irish raider, Zip Top, is also engaged. Farraaj is a Racing Post Trophy entry.
This morning’s betting could look crazy afterwards: if Born To Sea were in this, he’d be the 2.39 that Farraaj is; maybe less. Yet his seeming equivalent on form, Crusade, is 6.0. Again, each way in a nine-horse race is value for money on Betdaq, as I write.
4.30 Newmarket (Rose Bowl): This is the old Fenwolf Stakes from Ascot, and so the stats are best left. Maybe the race is, too, with four horses rated between 103 and 109.
But again, by checking out those already capable at Listed level, we can separate the men from the boys.
Times Up (holds Theology), Fictional Account and Chiberta King have also won on firm ground. Times Up is the only one of the three that hasn’t won at the trip, but has raced with late finishes as though it will suit.
Nehaam is another who races in rear, and should get involved in the closing stages, having already been placed at Group level over 2m. Made up your mind yet? The Dunlop or the Gosden? Sorry, times up!
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY to win 10pts CILL RIALAIG and BET 5pts win MOHEDIAN LADY (3.20 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win and place CRUSADE (3.55 Newmarket)
BET 5.5pts win NEHAAM and 2.4pts win (stakes saver) TIMES UP (4.30 Newmarket)
