3-DAY SENSATION: 154 POINTS UP: Daqman has spun the wheel of fortune from Jumps to Flat with a dramatic winning streak of a bankers hat-trick, a lay and big-odds winners through Friday (33 points profit), Saturday (51) and Sunday (70).
15-8 BANKER: THREE IN A ROW: He yesterday landed the Irish Lincolnshire at 8-1 (from 10.2 on BETDAQ) and made it three consecutive winning bankers (six out of seven) with:
WON 1-1 Shantou Village (Jumps banker)
WON 8-13 Romstal (Flat gold banker)
WON 15-8 Windshear (Flat banker)
HE HAMMERS PRICEWISE 4-0: In the process of a sequence of big-odds winners, Daqman defeated Pricewise 4-0 in their value challenge at the start of the Flat. His winners in the three days include:
WON 8-1 Mr Burbidge (Friday)
WON 14-1 Chatez (Doncaster Spring Mile, Saturday)
WON 8-1 Onenightidreamed (Irish Lincolnshire, Sunday)
EVERY DAY THE SEARCH FOR VALUE: Daqman continues his search for big value with the AW championships at the weekend and then the Aintree and Fairyhouse Grand Nationals. His daily tips are at the foot of the column, which today starts a series over the weeks before the Derby on value and the benefits of BETDAQ.
FLAT OUT FOR VALUE: THE BETDAQ FAIR DEAL
New readers start here. If the bookmaker paid out as much as was bet, he couldn’t make a living. So, instead of a ‘round’ book of bets (100 paid out for 100 paid in) on any given race, he makes you pay extra (in the examples below for Lincoln day, as much as 100-131 and yesterday 132%). The 32% is his running costs and profit.
BETDAQ offers are routinely showing at between 101% and 109% in the morning orange lists for an ordinary betting day (even currently 103% on the Derby, ante-post).
Orange check Race-by-race at Doncaster yesterday, as I checked down the offers in the BETDAQ orange Back list, those offers totalled 104, 106, 104, 104, 109, 107, 104, though one was 117% (two horses had just been withdrawn).
Then I checked through my Racing Post at the Total SPs in the race results for Lincoln day, Saturday, also at Doncaster: 117, 109, 118, 131, 130, 114, 122, 126. You’d be a lemon to take those prices!
Lemons check So what happened with those Sunday races? Total SPs published in the trade paper this morning reveal: 128, 118, 113, 132, 113, 112, 125, 129.
Value Rule When you bet, choose a race where the total percentage against you is very low. Then you know that value is on your side, whichever horse you choose.
To check on individual horses, just turn their odds into a percentage chance. Example 3-1 is (3 + 1 = 4) 100/4 gives a probability of 25%.
Do it for all the prices offered by the bookmaker (example 8-1 (8 + 1 = 9) 100/9 is approximately 11%. Now add all the percentages together and you get the total for the race.
Look again at those SP Totals of 130, 131 and 132? That means that, if you separated out the individual horses, some or all of their specific prices (like the ones you’ve been working out above) were so shortened as to give a bigger percentage probability for each one.
With BETDAQ, you can forget spending valuable time on the maths; the basic are done for you. For each race, the total percentage in the orange is given at the top and automatically changes with fluctuations in the offers.
DON’T BET with a bookmaker unless you check out the percentages against you and, then, don’t bet in races of more than 115%. In any event, don’t bet until you have checked the BETDAQ offers and exhausted the liquidity at the price you want.
Don’t bet unless you feel certain that one or more of those short odds is so wrong that the sum of the book is also wrong. I will go into detail about the ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ in later articles.
GENERAL RULE: Keep your Daq up and enjoy the confidence of betting in a value area. Always use the BETDAQ orange, and don’t be a lemon!
TOMORROW: Ok, so you have a race that adds up well and is overall value. But how do you find the value in the individual horse? What procedure should you follow to be one step ahead of the others in deciding on your bets?
EAGLE TO LAND THE NAP AND STABLE DOUBLE
How did that work! In a race billed as the Betdaq 50% Comm Refund Doncaster Shield, even the bookies bet only 113% and, in the Cash out On The Betdaq+ App Handicap, only 112%. Perhaps we should have Betdaq races every day at the big meetings!
CHEPSTOW: Talking of percentages, our champion jumps trainer, Paul Nicholls has an 85% win-and-place strike-rate over his last 21 starters. And Nicky Henderson is on 73%. So no change there, then, while we’ve been concentrating on the start of the Flat.
Nicholls sent The Eaglehaslanded (2.30) back to school after he fell as favourite at Exeter in February. The weak field for the opener and step up in trip should give him all the time in the world to get it right today.
The Chuckmeister (3.35), an Irish Points winner, has quickly gone chasing, as if Nicholls is telling us ‘this is his game.’ There were 3.6 offers this morning.
KEMPTON Nicky Henderson’s New Horizons (3.50) carries the tag ‘out of a half-sister to Denman’ and also carries no weight to speak of today, slipped into his first novice handicap.
WARWICK Horizontal Speed (3.25) earned the label ‘front runner’ after Michael Nolan elected to freewheel on him at Wetherby In January, with no pace on.
Richard Johnson let him run a similar race at the Cheltenham Festival and he finished an excellent fourth. Seemingly improving all the time, he is hiked to a class 2 today, but this track will suit his style.
The handicap hurdle (4.00) has two more front-runners, Saint John Henry and Brownville. Henry could give you a hair-raising ride (makes mistakes), while Dawson City is gamely trying to resist the handicapper’s attentions (up 3lb more for finishing second).
You’ll get bigger offers in running about Heronshaw, who gets himself behind but has won here and stays on dourly. Maybe Capard King can outstay them all off bottomweight and land a hat-trick.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 9pts win (nap) EAGLEHASLANDED (2.30 Chepstow)
BET 7pts win HORIZONTAL SPEED (3.25 Warwick)
BET 6pts win THE CHUCKMEISTER (3.35 Chepstow)
BET 5pts win NEW HORIZONS (3.50 Kempton)
BET 4pts win CAPARD KING (4.00 Warwick)
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