FOUR! WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: Daqman made it four consecutive winning days of profit with two more winners yesterday, The Eaglehaslanded (WON 4-5 nap) at Chepstow and New Horizons (WON 4-1) at Kempton Park.
FOUR! CONSECUTIVE BEST BETS: That also gives him four winning best bets on the bounce, three of them bankers, as follows:
WON 1-1 Shantou Village (banker)
WON 8-13 Romstal (gold banker)
WON 15-8 Windshear (banker)
WON 4-5 The Eaglehaslanded (nap)
PLUS 163 POINTS FROM 12 WINS: It takes his total number of winning returns in the four days to 12, netting him more than 163 points, including big winners at 14-1 and 8-1 (twice).
DON’T BE A SUCKER: BE A DETECTIVE: Daqman tries for a fifth nap on the trot today. But first the second part of a continuing (until the Derby) series on how to be one step ahead of the others in the search for value.
VITAL CLUES IN THE SEARCH FOR VALUE BETS
Each race is a crime scene. I told you yesterday how some bookies get away with murder. But your job – and mine – is to grab the value where it’s hidden away. The real crime is if we let these winners escape! And the punishment is severe on your pocket.
I don’t need to tell you that Richard Fahey plotted up the Lincoln and connections picked up a fortune. That Tommy Stack lay in wait with an unexposed Irish Lincoln horse. And he bagged the swag, too. What a weekend for the shrewdies!
You should have a list (in your head; on your computer; it matters not, as long as you remember) of The Trainers Most Likely To. Let’s title the list, The Usual Suspects.
Fahey’s there. Stack’s there. And I imagine you’ve got on your list already an old hand at lifting the booty, Dr Richard Newland. Hope you were on his Ebony Express (WON 33-1). This column was.
You should also have track facts at your fingertips, like the draw. Yes, I know there’s a famous tipster who has just chucked the draw out of the window (again).
I know it can change with the weather, and the way they keep digging up the drains at Doncaster and keep relaying the track at Wolver. That’s why you’ve got to read the papers.
Stay alert for special jockey bookings. Read what the trainers say (more particularly, what some of them don’t say). But most importantly, spot the plots.
Many ‘shock results’ have simple explanations. Like you, the trainer got the weather wrong; found the draw against him; got the horse’s trip wrong; ran it the ‘wrong way round’ (it really only likes to go right-handed). Like him, wait until ‘conditions are right’.
So, when you read the form, read between the lines. Read the sub-text. Think about the trainer’s motives and note where things went right, and where they go wrong (which track, trip, ground was to blame).
But, first and foremost, consider the horse as an animal.. Not a machine. This is particularly vital on the Flat, because you will have to deal with babies (aged only two!) and horses still growing and maturing (at three and four).
Again, the trainer is a vital clue. Does he ‘hurry’ his horses and ‘go for them’ at aged two? If so, is he as capable as a Hannon of producing them so young to win prizes and enjoy their racing?
Does the trainer educate them at home, or does he let them prosper with the experience of racing – or both – a patient man with more regard for the future than today’s race?
Finally, the breeding. You may never bother with it. But you’re probably wasting your time backing a two-year-old (over five or six furlongs), if his family are middle-distance horses. He must go down on your list of those to be patient with.
Combine all the ingredients: horse, trainer, jockey, draw, weather, breeding, form lines, form in between the lines, nature of the track, plots, plans and Press piffle.
Most Press hype can safely be ignored for betting purposes but should be part of your armour for laying runners in the BETDAQ green – the hyped horse will often be too short – and future articles in this series will be about adding all your information in The Ways To Play That Make It Pay.
Conclusion: you are the detective, a SOCO (scene-of-crime officer), looking for clues which could add up to a collar (in your case, collaring the money the layers are giving away). Be a SOCO, rather than a sucker! Good luck.
ROYALE NAP FOR MCCOY
HUNTINGDON The opening race at Huntingdon is my first bet. AP McCoy and Neil Mulholland have proved to be quite a formidable team and they go here with Southfield Royale.
He was outclassed last time out in a race won by Regal Encore which was a qualifier for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham. This race is a long way from that quality and he should be able to easily dispose of these rivals today.
Although he’s shading odds-on, that still represents decent value for a horse that’s rate 139 and he is very well weighted to get the job done also.
The retiring Champion Jockey should be able to follow up on that opening race win with another winner later on in the card at 3.50. He gets the leg up on Conor Dore’s A Little Bit Dusty who looks to be the most solid option in a relatively weak contest.
The Alamo and Mr Lando are the most obvious dangers to the Jolly but the pair will need to up their games to get close and they both have quite a bit to prove when push comes to shove.
EXETER Over at the Devon track, I also have two bets for the day. In the second race, Nick Scholfield has a rare booking for David Pipe but it is one to take note of with Sinndar’s Man.
The four year old last ran in a Grade 1 race that was won by Bristol De Mai at Chepstow. He was completely outclassed that and similar to Southfield Royale at Huntingdon, this race is a long way from the same quality and the Pipe charge should have no hassle in winning this one.
There are some big question marks over several of his opponents and it is difficult to find a viable alternative.
Later on in the card, there looks to be a really good opportunity for Celestino, another taking a marked drop in class today from his last run.
He was last seen in the Doom Bar Juvenile Handicap Hurdle won by Alzammaar with Lil Rockerfeller finishing just ahead of Celestino and he won on Sunday at Ascot. The form is quite solid and it will take a good horse to beat the Paul Nicholls runner here.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9 on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 8pts win (Nap) SOUTHFIELD ROYALE (2.10 Huntingdon)
BET 5pts win SINNDAR’S MAN (2.35 Exeter)
BET 5pts win A LITTLE BIT DUSTY (3.50 Huntingdon)
BET 5pts win CELESTINO (4.45 Exeter)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt Acca on the above four
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£30 FREE BET
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
