DAQMAN PUTS UP HUGE OUTSIDERS: After taking a 12-3 lead over Pricewise this Flat season with Astaire (WON 9-2) at Newmarket on Thursday, Daqman puts up the following best-offers bets against him this afternoon, with the biggest prices in the Scottish Grand National and the Newbury Spring Cup:
13.5 on BETDAQ (2.35 Ayr)
20.0 on BETDAQ (3.25 Newbury)
28.0 on BETDAQ (3.45 Ayr)
MULTIPLES DOUBLE TO 550-1: Says Daqman: ‘With the form, particularly of three-year-old races, almost impossible to fathom, I shall be having some small doubles on the National and the Spring Cup, which could net a minimum of 550-1’.
BIG NEWBURY BETS ON THE NOSE: Singles alone on Daqman’s Scottish National bets aim to land a bull’s-eye return of 50 points but, as well as outsiders, he has two bets at Newbury which he considers worth 15 points and 16 points on the nose, one of them his nap.
28.0 OBEAUX ON BETDAQ IS MUSIC TO MY EARS
3.45 Ayr (Scottish Grand National) We need some help from the stats with 31 runners in a 29lb long handicap. Eight of the last 10 winners carried 10st 4lb or less. But seven here – from Cogry down – are out of the handicap, and carry overweight.
Five of the last seven winners were from the South of England or Wales, the raiders’ record spoiled only by Scotland’s own dual winner, Merigo. Samstown is Scotland’s big hope today.
Broadway Buffalo (second) and Sego Success (fifth) come on from the NH Chase (4m) at Cheltenham, won by the subsequent Aintree Grand National eighth, Cause Of Causes.
Though well behind at the business end, ‘Sego’, who was a novice improver on a hat-trick mission that day, was badly buffeted during the race and did well to finish at all.
He and Broadway Buffalo are both only seven and there future is ahead of them, as they say. Sego’s CV might be improved on today, since he’s had only four races this season against Buffalo’s eight.
But the worry for ‘Sego’ is the poor form of his stable (28 consecutive losers) and for Buffalo is the ground conditions; he wants it soft and may not even line up, depending on how much watering has been done.
Two horses are even younger. Royal Player looks high in the handicap for a six-year-old, and Cogry, just behind Sego Success at Cheltenham, is also the same tender age. I can find only one six-year-old winner since 1966.
The sound surface suggests deleting Lie Forrit (high in the handicap now), but his old adversary Harry The Viking will love today’s going. He was favourite for this in 2012 but was jaded after running at the Cheltenham festival.
Will running at the festival also stop Broadway Buffalo and Sego Success, Gallant Oscar (bought this week by J P McManus) and Indian Castle, third and fourth in a handicap at the festival last month? Since Gallant Oscar was prepping for Aintree (which he missed), I don’t think so in his case.
Houblon des Obeaux’ Cheltenham form (down the field in the Gold Cup) can always be ignored and his seconds to Many Clouds (Hennessy) and Coneygree are the best pieces of form in this race, better than Sam Winner who is above him in the handicap.
Last year’s Scottish National winner, Al Co (5lb higher now) has no problem of a recent hard race: he didn’t get past the first fence in the Grand National!
Catching On’s sequence was lost through running too quickly. He went for the Midlands Grand National after winning the Devon National. That he crashed out early at Uttoxeter – unusual for him – means he comes fresher to this.
He can handle the ground but can he handle a rise of 26lb in 10 weeks? He’s the kind of horse Jonjo O’Neill used to improve to win a handicap at Cheltenham.
Jonjo hasn’t had a great season but is in form now, and this would make up for a lot. But you just wonder if Catching hasn’t had enough for now.
I can only recall one Eider Chase winner going on to take this National, and Milborough has been saddled with 10lb more.
Of the bottomweights, Drop Out Joe’s jumping was suspect in his first handicap. Yes Tom learned his trade at Ayr on a sounder surface in his younger days – second to both Sprinter Sacre and Ballabriggs – and has been in good form this year, but his stamina gave out in this race last season.
The ground is against Goonyella and Raz De Maree but helps Amigo, back to form on the last day, but – like Broadway Buffalo and Man With A Van – he has as much headgear as an astronaut.
Trustan Times, third in this last year and fifth in the Grand National Trial at Haydock, is now a well-handicapped horse but the handicapper knows he has jumping problems and hasn’t won since 2012.
Global Power is high in the handicap but Grimthorpe winner Wayward Prince is still below his old mark, despite running away with the Doncaster race, when good ground suited.
There wasn’t a penny for him early mouse on BETDAQ but, if they can’t find anything to back, the Pricewise factor means you have a bet and lay at 30.0.
DAQMAN’S ORDER IN (at BETDAQ market offers at the time of writing):
1: Al Co at 14.5
2: Houblon des Obeaux at 28.0
3: Gallant Oscar at 11.0
PEARL SAVED UP TO BE SCOTTISH CHAMPION
2.00 Ayr Tricky one. Top Gamble, Seventh Sky and Solar Impulse have all set the pace in the past. They could set it up for Oscar Rock, an improving son of you-know-who.
Brian Hughes has had to learn to ride him, and coming from behind to poke his head in front on the line is what he likes best. Well backed this morning.
2.35 Ayr (Scottish Champion Hurdle) Young pretenders with a light weight. That’s what you’re looking for: no older than six (8-10) and below 11st (9-10).
This is Calipto’s last hurdle before he goes chasing but the one I like at a price is Pearl Castle (13.0 on BETDAQ early mouse), who has waited for the better ground and has had just one run this year. Unlucky sixth (hampered) in the Galway Plate when only a four-year-old.
3.10 Ayr Whereas I fancied the front-runners to set up my bet in the first race I’ve covered at Ayr, I think the pace pair in this, Dunraven Storm and Strongpoint, are likely to get away from the small field.
Le Bacardy is better than the bare form and Duke Of Navan was backed this morning, but I was surprised to get around 6.0 each of my two, so I’ll dutch them.
SPEED AND STAMINA MAKE ROMSDAL THE NAP
1.45 Newbury (John Porter Stakes) John Gosden’s double yesterday is a stable-form boost to Romsdal, though the Derby third and Leger second hardly needed it, after showing at Kempton that there is also speed in this stayer’s make-up.
‘Kept in training by Sir Michael Stoute’ is a big tribute in itself to five-year-old Arab Spring but Stoiute has been missing strike badly so far, with just 1-16 (that’s 6%) in 2015. One to take out of the race.
Team Hannon has one aged four (the in-form Windshear) and one five (Pether’s Moon) but this is not his race, according to past results. Four-year-olds are 5-2 up and Romsdal should increase their supremacy today.
2.15 Newbury (Fred Darling Stakes) A poor Classic test in recent years, with two of the last four winners failing to score in any other race.
Tiggy Wiggy won the National Stakes, the Lowther and the Cheveley Park but has she trained on after all that exposure? Remember, when dealing with three-year-olds: last year is last year, this year is this.
Ralph Beckett has won this three times and has shown himself a dab hand with fillies ever since Look Here won the Oaks in 2008. He fields a 15.0 BETDAQ dark sort today.
Redstart is the daughter of a 2,000 Guineas winner with bags of stamina in her pedigree on the dam’s side, and Beckett had four winners among 10 out of 11 placed in the first four up to Thursday.
2.50 Newbury (Greenham Stakes) The colts’ trial has been much more productive than the Fred Darling, with – on the roll of honour since 2010 – Dick Turpin, Frankel, Olympic Glory and Kingman.
Team Hannon’s form figures since 2007 are 11312312, so it’s very hard to see Ivawood out of the frame.
3.25 Newbury Spring Cup Richard Fahey connections punted a Lincoln loser in this last year and won. Today they run a Lincoln winner, Gabrial, a much better animal.
But foxy Fahey makes chickens of us by also putting Ryan Moore up on Loving Spirit, who goes well fresh but is seven now.
Four-year-olds have won this seven times in the decade, and Spark Plug (trainer currently three wins from five) has scored first time in each of the last two seasons. Yet he’s offered at 20.0 on BETDAQ, as I write.
Stats are for those who say ‘there is no such thing as coincidence.’ And the winning stalls in the decade demand some explanation. In six of those years, they were 10, 11, 12, 11, 11 and 13. Three other winners came from 20, 21, 23.
Did I say foxy? Fahey has Loving Spirit (he’s 10.5) in 10 and Gabrial (a 9.4 offer) in 22. We just have to back them!
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 30 points, unless otherwise stated)
BET 15pts win (nap) ROMSDAL (1.45 Newbury)
BET 10pts win OSCAR ROCK (2.00 Ayr)
BET 2pts win and place REDSTART (2.15 Newbury)
BET 2.5pts win PEARL CASTLE (2.35 Ayr)
BET 16pts win IVAWOOD and 2.5pts win ESTIDHKAAR (stable second-string, stakes saver)(2.50 Newbury)
BET 6pts win on each DUNRAVEN STORM and STRONGPOINT (3.10 Ayr)
BET 3.5pts win GABRIAL, and 1.5pts win and place SPARK PLUG, plus 0.75pts win (stakes saver on second string) LOVING SPIRIT (4.25 Newbury)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 5pts win GALLANT OSCAR, 3.7pts win AL CO, 1.8pts win and place HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (3.45 Ayr)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 9 x 1pt win doubles AL CO, GALLANT OSCAR and HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (3.45 Ayr) with GABRIAL, LOVING SPIRIT and SPARK PLUG (4.25 Newbury)
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