Floyd Mayweather Jr. (47-0, 26 KO) vs. Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KO)
Boxing is a dying sport, huh? Well it’s certainly alive and kicking in Las Vegas this weekend, as Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao will meet at long last on Saturday night at the MGM Grand. This fight feels like it’s happening five years too late, but it’s still a fascinating matchup that will, for one night, place boxing at the center of the sporting universe once again.
Mayweather, of course, is the undefeated pound-for-pound king and the clear favorite in the fight (can currently be backed at 1.57 at BETDAQ). He’s a brilliant defensive fighter who seemingly never allows himself to be put into precarious positions in the ring, while his hand speed and precision punching make him tough (impossible?) to beat on the scorecards. He does not, however, possess much punching power, recording just 26 knockouts in 47 career bouts and just two in the last 10 years. For quite a while people have speculated that whoever eventually beats Mayweather will be able to do so by walking through his punches and pushing him around in the ring, but Mayweather is so good technically– with his footwork, his counters, his legendary “shoulder roll” defense– that nobody can ever find him, corner him, and land solid punches. Can Pacquiao succeed where so many others have failed?
Make no mistake, Pacquiao will be the best puncher that Mayweather has ever faced. He doesn’t have the power that he did in his younger days, as only three on his last eleven wins have come by knockout, but he’s always been known more for his high activity than one-punch power, anyway, and his straight left hand is still a punch to be feared. Moreover, Pacquiao is an unorthodox fighter who likes to use feints to set up unusual angles for his punches. Mayweather’s defensive acumen is unparalleled, but Pacquiao has displayed a knack for getting his opponents out of position throughout his career. In my opinion, that’s his best, and possibly only, chance to win the fight: get Mayweather out of position and test his chin. For all his success and all his accolades, Mayweather has rarely been seriously tested in the ring, though he has been hit more in his last few fights. Pacquiao, on the other hand, has been involved in many “blood and guts” wars and has been knocked out three times himself. If this fight turns into a classic slugfest (and after seeing Mayweather’s recent fights against Maidana, it’s not out of the question), one would think that Pacquiao would have the edge.
So…how can we get rich off of this spectacle? It will be interesting viewing, sure, but the experience will be much more satisfying if we can make a little money, right? BETDAQ’s markets are lively, so the opportunity is certainly there. To me, it comes down to a simple question: can Pacquiao put him on the ground? I just don’t believe Mayweather, the most accurate puncher in the boxing history according to CompuBox, is going to lose a decision. He’s more technically sound than Pacquiao and his talent for late-round self-preservation after he’s built a lead on the scorecards is the stuff of legend. I mean, stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Mayweather steps into the ring in a highly-anticipated fight, peppers his outclassed opponent for a few rounds, then dances around for the remainder of the fight, the outcome never in doubt (and the fans never happy). That’s probably a pretty accurate description of 17 or 18 of Mayweather’s last 20 fights. Why are we to believe that Pacquiao has a chance to shake things up?
For one thing, age. Mayweather, at 38 years old, is no spring chicken. The old saying “father time is undefeated” may be applicable here, and if you’re looking for a parallel situation, look no further than Roy Jones Jr., a former champion at several weight classes who, at his height, was every bit as dominant as Mayweather (and far more entertaining). While Jones wasn’t a defensive tactician like Mayweather, his hand speed and reflexes allowed him to make many opponents look positively silly. Like Mayweather, he was regarded as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world for a time and, like Mayweather, many wondered whether he would ever legitimately lose (his early loss to Montel Griffin, like his loss in the Olympics, was controversial and probably undeserved). Once he neared 40, though, his reflexes began to betray him, and his career was effectively* ended by two devastating knockouts: one at the hands of Antonio Tarver, the other Glenn Johnson (*Jones still fights, sadly). Mayweather has never had Jones’ punching power, meaning he should have more trouble keeping opponents away from him, and he has definitely been getting hit more in his recent fights. Has the time come? Is the dam about to break in spectacular fashion, as it did with Jones?
Based on what we’ve seen for the last– well, for as long as Mayweather has been fighting– it’s tough to answer “yes” with much confidence. However, Pacquiao is a better fighter than Marcos Maidana, Mayweather’s last opponent and a guy who gave him some problems. Plus, it’s not like all things are equal here– Manny can be backed at 3.1, while you’ve got to be prepared to pay if you want to back Floyd.
For nearly 20 years, betting against Mayweather has been a bad idea. Advising someone to bet against Mayweather has always– ALWAYS– been bad advice. And yet, here I am, trying to explain why I have a strange gut feeling here. Maybe it’s because this is boxing, and we’ve all seen it before. Nobody ever rides off into the sunset unscathed, at least not since Rocky Marciano (or Joe Calzaghe, I suppose). Maybe it’s because I, like many others, find Mayweather absolutely insufferable, and I’m allowing my emotion to cloud my judgement. Whatever the case, I’ve got to be true to myself, and I just have a funny feeling that Pacquiao is going to catch Mayweather, hurt Mayweather, and make Saturday night a memorable night for boxing fans. And yes, I think it’s going to come by knockout. I say this knowing full well that Pacquiao has not been the knockout artist in recent years that he was early in his career, and knowing all about Mayweather’s defensive brilliance. Call me crazy, call me stupid…call me a gambler. I think it’s going to happen. And if it does happen, it may happen late: four of Pacqiao’s last 5 knockouts have come in Round 8 or later.
Recommendation: Pacquiao at 3.1, Pacquiao by KO/TKO/DQ at 7.2, Pacquiao is Rounds 10-12 at 15.5
Enjoy the fight, and good luck…
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