100-1 ROYAL ASCOT STUNNERS: Ton-up bets to win 100 points plus doubles aimed at up to 100-1 per day. That’s part of the Daqman staking plan for Royal Ascot, in which all bets win 30 or more.
SHOCK OF SHORT-ODDS LAYS: At the other end of the scale, Daqman today opposes short-priced favourites in two surprise lays, the first of an attack on the front of the BETDAQ market during the week.
FOUR-RACE VALUE CHALLENGE: He aims to keep up the momentum of his value-challenge success over Pricewise (37-9 this Flat season). They meet head-to-head today in the 3.5, 3.40, 5.0 and 5.35 Royal Ascot.
THUNDER ABLE BUT FRIEND MAY BE A FREAK
2.30 Royal Ascot (Queen Anne Stakes) Four-year-olds are 8-2 up in the decade and it has taken a very good five-year-old to stop them. One like Goldikova (2010), trained by Freddy Head.
And here’s the same stable with his super grey, Solow – ‘one of the best I’ve trained’, he says – winner of nine of his 10 starts. Able Friend is also five and also strongly vaunted by the Press and by connections.
Team Hannon takes them on with Night Of Thunder in a race they’ve won with superstar milers, such as Canford Cliffs (beat Goldikova on her second visit) and Toronado.
Night Of Thunder spent most of his career duelling with Kingman; ‘Thunder’ won the Guineas; Kingman the St James’s Palace Stakes.
But both Night Of Thunder and Toronado were beaten in the Prix du Moulin last autumn by Charm Spirit. Trainer? Freddy Head.
Solow’s Group-1 form was achieved in Dubai (which rather tenuously put his official rating up to 124) and in a four-horse race at Longchamp. So he still has to prove himself in a race of champions.
Able Friend, comes over from Hong-kong with 12 wins from 18 starts, but even less does he deserve his 127 rating, unless you count extra for consistency. He usually beats the same horses, some of them his own stable companions.
Able Friend fans might respond: so does Night Of Thunder. In fact, there’s precious little between that one and stablemate Toormore on Lockinge form, and Richard Hughes will be plotting every inch of ground to get his revenge on James Doyle for that narrow defeat.
Verdict: Solow’s reputation relies on Meydan form – so often a let-down on the lush turf of England – and on success over three others on home ground. He’s never raced with ‘firm’ or ‘fast’ in the going description.
Able Friend has looked like a ‘monster’ in beating the same old same old on a round course at Shah-tin, and it’s impossible to know the true merit of his rating and his true chance against Solow and the Hannon pair in this straight mile.
It was firm ground when Night Of Thunder won last year’s 2,000 Guineas but Toormore has never raced with ‘firm’ in the going return.
Looking for the ‘wrong’ price, it has to be Solow. You can’t bet 1.6-1 against Able Friend and Night Of Thunder, who is at his best on fast ground on a stiff, unrelenting track.
Choosing between those two, I’ll take the home contender, Night Of Thunder, at 6.2. The 4.1 Able Friend (saver), in a 100% BETDAQ orange, may turn out to be the value but, if Solow wins, you’ll have bet ‘blue’ as a Las Vegas punter pal of mine tells it: he means you’ve not getting an edge; just praying you’re right; and likely to give vent with a few choice words if he loses.!
AIR STRIKE: ROUND TWO SENT TO COVENTRY
3.05 Royal Ascot (Coventry Stakes) High numbers usually win this, though no one told The Wow Signal, who scooted home from the one stall last year.
But it turned out to be nothing like the quality of Coventry we were used to, no comparison to the Dawn Approach and Canford Cliffs results of recent years.
Take Team Hannon out and the Irish usually run the show, via Ballydoyle or Jim Bolger. And the betting says they have the knock-out punch today in Round Two, nicely installed in gate 12.
Age Of Empire, Air Force Blue, Beaverbrook, Ode To Evening, Sigh of The Kodiac and Young John have made all or led early in their races, and I can see the track record being smashed on the fast ground.
It’s pretty much guesswork but I wouldn’t fancy those from the breeding line of Royal Applause (Age Of Empire and Destroyer) and Acclamation (Qeyaadah, Young John) on this ground.
The best of War Front (Air Force Blue) have all won on firm, and progeny of Cape Cross (Beaverbrook) and Frozen Power (War Department) prefer it. So, too, Kodiac (Eltezam, Sign of The Kodiac, Sir Roger Moore) and Teofilo (Round Two).
The enigma of course, is the US raider, Finnegan (also bred for a fast surface), but he comes here from small races, drawn 3, and with a pedigree for further. Ryan Moore rejects him for Air Force Blue.
Verdict: The last nine winners of this came to the race undefeated. Adding that to fast-ground breeding and a high draw, you have to be on Round Two or Air Force Blue.
With 17 to beat, most of them unexposed including an American challenger, Round Two is not value at 3.6 on BETDAQ this morning. Air Force Blue is a much better offer at 8.2, with Ballydoyle having won it three times in seven seasons and such a huge bank of juvenile potential to choose from (they ran second to Round Two with one of them).
MAKE A STAND FOR MUTHMIR IN BIG SPRINT
3.40 Royal Ascot (King’s Stand Stakes) Sole Power attempts a fabulous hat-trick here but I can’t find a winning eight-year-old in this race for 40 years or more; maybe never.
Most of the Aussies and Americans have switched to the Golden Jubilee, with the exception of Shamal Wind, who’s landed back-to-back wins this year but beaten only maidens in both.
Again, until we know better, we should stick to a high stall (7 or higher have won eight out of 10).
The ground is a worry for Jack Dexter, Hot Streak, Mecca’s Angel, Rangali, Spirit Quartz and Steps.
Verdict: Pearl Secret and Hot Streak have both finished third in this, but the most likely pair to topple Sole Power are Muthmir and G Force. Put together, they’ve beaten most of these.
G Force has raced only once this year and, in his comments this morning, David O’Meara seems to be pointing the way to the Golden Jubilee later in the week. I took 6.6 Muthmir, who will love track and ground.
BETDAQ VALUE DICTATES ONLY MAKE BELIEVE
4.20 Royal Ascot (St James’s Palace Stakes) This is the match I hoped to see: Gleneagles v Make Believe. The scales seem tipped one way. But the betting is the other way!
1: MAKE BELIEVE: Slammed the subsequent French Derby winner, New Bay, three lengths in the French 2,000 Guineas. Nearly five lengths behind the winner was Karar, earlier beaten two lengths by Territories in his prep race, the Prix Fontainebleau.
2: GLENEAGLES: Won the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and The Curragh, but with the Newmarket third, Ivawood, closing him down by almost two lengths on the easier surface in Ireland.
At Newmarket, Territories – trained like Make Believe and New Bay by Andre Fabre – finished little more than two lengths off Gleneagles.
Lines to form, therefore, say Make Believe is the winner. Even if they don’t allow for improvement, different tracks and different going, they demand Make Believe must be backed as value at 4.8 on BETDAQ, a ridiculous price in the circumstances.
3: CONSORT: Was Sir Michael Stoute’s Guineas horse but didn’t come to hand early enough. Now showing ‘immense’ improvement at home, says my man in the long grass.
It would be a major upset, and highly improbable (your decision: is it more than 7.2 probable?), for him to beat the winners of three Guineas but Stoute doesn’t run them to get a free racecard.
He can’t lose. As The Man renowned for improving his horses later in life, he is guaranteed to get a yardstick for Consort (and the rest) for the future, and more prizemoney than a conditions race for finishing third. Or better?
Verdict: Gleneagles had a hard race at the Curragh on the easy surface but ‘we got away with it,’ says trainer O’Brien. But did they? Has the race left its mark, or will Gleneagles be the Newmarket Gleneagles again on today’s fast surface? Fascinating stuff and could go either way.
But, in a 101% orange, BETDAQ layers offer a huge 4.8 about Make Believe. With Andre Fabre knowing all about Gleneagles through Territories, he now produces from the hat a magic miler who beat his own Derby winner in the French Guineas.
HARDSTONE HAS BEEN LAID OUT FOR THIS
5.00 Royal Ascot (Ascot Stakes) It’s hard to find a winning Flat trainer among winners of this, with Byrnes, Henderson, Mullins, O’Neill, Pipe, Martin and Webber on the scoreboard recently, to name but a few, as they say.
Four and five year olds dominate (7-10), which reduces the jumps contingent of those ages to Tony Martin, Nicky Henderson and Warren Greatrex. But the theory will either give us a huge-odds winner or it falls down.
The three it points to are: Elishpour (Martin), who hasn’t been seen on the Flat for more than two years, when both wins were on the soft; Royal Irish Hussar (Henderson) tailed off at the meeting last year; and Boite (Greatrex), a front-runner, who has managed to stay in front only as far as 1m 2f so far!
Clondaw Warrior races in touch and it’s doubtful he’ll have much finish left in him. He and Digeanta are both eight now, and it’s asking a lot of them to show speed on this fast ground.
Taking out the soft-ground performers, I’ve got it down to Broxbourne, Fun Mac, Hardstone and Hurricane Higgins, and last year’s unlucky horse, Ray Ward. So I’ve got two Hendersons after all! Both are past winners of the Goodwood Stakes (2m 5f)
Verdict: Hardstone (20.0 on BETDAQ early mouse) has been put away for this. He may have most to fear from the Henderson pair, Broxbourne (13.5) and Hurricane Higgins (22.0), and Ray Ward.
5.35 Royal Ascot (Windsor Castle Stakes) Success, or nearly so, for Round Two earlier in the Coventry, would be a big boost for Washington DC, the horse he beat in the Marble Hill Stakes. Buratino would prop up Steady Pace.
Despite his breeding, Ard San Aer is said to want top of the ground.
Soapy Aitken won for me last time, and Orvar looks fast.
But Ruby Notion comes here with a big US reputation yet is said to be better on turf. She races like a quarter-horse: will she last out on the straight track and give Wesley Ward back-to-back wins after Hootenanny a year ago?
Verdict: I’ll sit on the edge of my chair and shout for Ruby at 11.0 on BETDAQ as I writ. Ard San Aer (16.5) could be a big danger, if reports are true about his ground preference.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
LAY 10pts SOLOW, and BET 5.75pts win NIGHT OF THUNDER and 2pts win (stakes saver) ABLE FRIEND (2.30 Royal Ascot)
BET 4pts win AIR FORCE BLUE (3.05 Royal Ascot)
BET 5.3pts win MUTHMIR (3.40 Royal Ascot)
LAY: 10pts GLENEAGLES, and BET 7.8pts to win (nap) MAKE BELIEVE (4.20 Royal Ascot)
WIN-100 TON-UP BETS: 8pts win BROXBOURNE, and 5pts win on each HARDSTONE and HURRICANE HIGGINS (5.00 Ascot)
BET 3pts win and place RUBY NOTION and 2pts win and place ARD SAN AER (5.35 Royal Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 6 x 1pt win doubles (3 x 2) BROXBOURNE, HARDSTONE and HURRICANE HIGGINS (5.00 Ascot) with RUBY NOTION and ARD SAN AER (5.35 Royal Ascot)
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