BETDAQ BACKERS WIN AGAIN: Daqman landed the value on two shrewd win-and-place bets yesterday but it was BETDAQ backers who were the real winners yet again with between 20% and 125% better odds about Flying Empress (WON 5-1 from 7.0) and Choral Festival (2nd 4-1 from 10.0).
IRISH DERBY ABC GUIDE: Daqman finds that his ABC of stats has the odds-on favourite bottom of the heap! But, with Ballydoyle’s colts already beaten in the Epsom Derby, it may be a filly who is the favourite’s biggest challenger.
ACE FILLIES QUALIFY TO CHALLENGE JACK
6.30 The Curragh, Saturday (Irish Derby) In no other race among 41 ABC guides I’ve done for this column are the Irish – mainly down to one sire, one owner and one trainer – so dominant that the stats and indicators revolve around them. If Ballydoyle doesn’t win, another Irish yard does.
Yet here we are with an odds-on English favourite for Saturday’s Irish Derby by the ‘wrong’ sire, with the ‘wrong’ trainer and ‘wrong’ owner.
Can Jack Hobbs, named after the great English cricketer, bowl a ‘dirty ball’, score one-handed (check your hurling glossary) and turn back the Curragh clock to the invader’s last triumph in 1994? Or will he, as the stats imply, finish stone last?
That he’s odds on to win suggests only faint hopes among the Irish but there are no faint hearts among Ballydoyle fans who have watched Aidan O’Brien no-hopers come good this year, not to mention some of his ‘certainties’ fall by the wayside.
Aidan leaves in four colts and supplements a filly. Three of the colts have already finished behind Jack Hobbs at Epsom, a fourth was down the field in the French Derby.
So is the Irish saviour among the fillies? Ballydoyle’s Qualify is not the only one near the front of the market: there are three fillies in the top six in the betting.
A Trained in Ireland (14/15); no English win since 1994
B Owned Michael Tabor (12 wins)
C Trained Aidan O’Brien (11 wins, currently 8/10) or Andre Fabre (two from three)
D Sired by Galileo (4) or Montjeu (4) = 8 out of 10
E Sire’s stamina index 10.6 to 11.8 (9 out of 10)
F Won/placed Derby or a Guineas (total 12 in 10 seasons)
ABCDEF Highland Reel
Three lengths behind New Bay in the French 2,000 Guineas, Highland Reel halved that deficit in their Derby at Chantilly (1m 2f) when he finished second.
A half-brother to Australian, the colt showed plenty of speed on a firm surface as a two-year-old but has been confined to easy ground in his two French forays this term.
Though he’s by Galileo, who has sired four winners of the Curragh Classic, his overall breeding profile is more that of an Eclipse winner.
ABCDE Giovanni Canaletto
Another Galileo but a full brother to Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World and half-brother to Duke Of Marmalade.
It was a shock when he was beaten by Curvy in the Gallinule but less so in hindsight after she beat the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner in the Ribblesdale last week.
Giovanni, himself, was more than six lengths behind Jack Hobbs in the Epsom Derby but is said to have had a rushed preparation.
ABCDE Hans Holbein
Seventh, four-and-a-half lengths behind Giovanni Canaletto in the Epsom Derby, so nine behind Jack Hobbs.
But, following similar tactics when he won the Chester Vase, he was allowed to bowl along with Elm Park and the pair did nothing for each other’s chances.
ABCE Kilimanjaro
Finished just in front of Hans Holbein at Epsom, looking more like a Cup horse for next year, which had already been indicated by the way he stayed on from off the pace to win the Lingfield Derby Trial.
ABDE Curvy
Rapid improver from a 72-rated handicapper in April to any thing between 106 and 116 after beating Irish 1,000 Guineas star Pleascach in the Ribblesdale. Automatic entry into the Derby by winning the Gallinule Stakes.
Giovanni Canaletto’s defeat by Curvy in the Gallinule revealed a high head carriage but Curvy could do no more than beat the colts, and she is fancied to do so again on Saturday.
ABF Legatissimo
Newmarket 1,000 Guineas winner, likely runner in the Pretty Polly Stakes.
AC Qualify
In most notebooks, became one of the Ballydoyle flops of the season – alongside such as John F Kennedy – when beaten out of sight in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas, then only 10th at 50-1 in the Irish version.
But all she needed was a distance of ground, or so it seemed when, upped to the Oaks trip at Epsom, she just got up (again 50-1) to spoil Legatissimo’s Guineas-Oaks double bid. Related to a Park Hill (fillies’ St Leger) winner and a second, so more to come the further she goes.
AEF Pleascach
Won the Irish 1,000 Guineas and, stepped up to 1m 4f, was just run out of it by Curvy in the Ribblesdale Stakes last week.
Bought by Godolphin since the Curragh Classic and entered in the Irish St Leger, so different tactics could bring out what they believe is abundant stamina on Saturday.
A Edelpour
Dermot Weld’s grey has won only at a lower level, encountering only soft ground but is lightly raced and bred for a St Leger, even a Gold Cup!
A Radanpour
Another unexposed arrow in the quiver of late-developing Weld three-year-olds, unbeaten at a lower level. Both Edelpour and Radaman are owned by the Aga Khan.
EF Jack Hobbs
As second in the Epsom Derby, with the Ballydoyle candidates beaten off, Jack Hobbs seemingly only has to play a strtaight bat to be involved in the finish.
However, that was the second time that strength in a finish had gone the way of his nemesis, Golden Horn, who beat him in both Dante and Derby.
Jack Hobbs is by Halling, whose progeny get better with time. As one good judge put it: ‘You’d expect him to win a King George when he’s five!’
MUDAMMERA FOR IN-FORM VARIAN TEAM
BEVERLEY Odds-on Wardat Dubai (2.45) has had her three maiden runs to qualify for a handicap but, seemingly, is not up to it.
She remains in maiden company here, with David O’Meara dropping two back to this level –Thankstomonty and Salma Gondis – with their combined odds better than the single win odds about the favourite. I’ll take the two onto one.
Twelve of the last 16 Tim Easterby starters have finished in the first four and I shall back two of his at Beverley this afternoon, stop at a winner though, just in case both win, I’ll have a small-stakes double.
In the 4.15, Duke Of Yorkshire (is that you, Tim?) has been racing as though this return to 1m 4f should suit.
Though Relight My Fire (4.45) carries top weight, he is racing off his lowest mark after a prep run since landing a hat-trick in the summer of 2013.
LEICESTER Mudammera (6.50) seems to have done enough to justify a decent bet, first time handicapping (though she’s missing from the Handicap Debut list in the trade paper).
There are mixed messages about Edge Of Heaven’s Wolver success: the third horse won afterwards but the ‘moral’, Merritt Island, beaten only half a length into second, giving 6lb, has lost twice on turf since.
Mudammera’s trainer, Roger Varian, has had two winners from three starters since Saturday.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength, except stop-at-a winner bet where, if the second leg is required, it must recover the stake on the first leg as well as produce the fixed-profit yield)
BET 5pts win THANKSTOMONTY and 4pts win SALMA GONDIS (2.45 Beverley)
BET 4pts win DUKE OF YORKSHIRE (4.15 Beverley), if lose 8pts win RELIGHT MY FIRE (4.45 Beverley), plus 1pt win double the two
BET 7pts win (nap) MUDAMMERA (6.50 Leicester)
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