The year’s final major gets underway tomorrow at beautiful Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wisconsin, as 156 of the world’s top players will tee it up in the 97th PGA Championship.
This is the third time since 2004 that Whistling Straits has hosted the PGA, so many players in the field have already experienced the course in Major Championship conditions. The venue was last used back in 2010, and that particular week will be forever remembered as Dustin Johnson’s first (and worst? maybe not, incredibly) heartbreak at a major. Johnson would’ve won had he not been penalized for grounding his club in a bunker on the final hole, a questionable call considering the small patch of sand Johnson played from certainly didn’t look like a bunker. Interestingly, that “bunker” has been covered up this week, which I’m sure irks Johnson a bit, don’t you think?
Jordan Spieth (8.6) is the clear favorite at BETDAQ, and why shouldn’t he be? All the guy has done this year is win two majors and come within a shot of winning another, and heading into this week he’s been full of talking points about “proving people wrong” and “exacting revenge” (seriously… said this with a straight face) after the near-miss at St. Andrews.
And we finally get a chance to see golf’s two best players on the same stage again, as Rory McIlroy, the defending PGA Champion and still world No. 1, will be teeing it up for the first time since injuring his ankle in early July. Rory finished 3rd at Whistling Straits back in 2010 and if you think he has some magic up his sleeve this week you can jump aboard at BETDAQ at 14.0, but I sort of lean the other way– I think he’s a good-looking “Lay” option at 14.5. I mean, the guy couldn’t play any golf at all for a few weeks, and based on a picture he shared of his ankle after a practice round a few days ago I think it’s pretty safe to say that he’s not yet 100% healthy. If he were to win this week it would be a near-miracle, and I feel strongly that his odds are far too short.
I don’t feel that way about everybody, though. Here are three guys whose price I like a little more:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Rickie Fowler (22.0)- I’m of the belief that as we sit here today, in early August 2015, Fowler is right up there on that Spieth/DJ/Rory level and should be considered a favorite anytime he tees it up. I saw some “experts” recently saying that Fowler’s had an “up and down” year, using as proof his missed cut at Chambers Bay and the fact that he didn’t contend at St. Andrews. That is, quite simply, an idiotic way of looking at things. First of all, Fowler played pretty well at St. Andrews, shooting 6-under and finishing 30th. And he just so happened to win the Scottish Open the week before, a victory that came just 8 weeks after he won The Players Championship. He’s playing some great golf at the moment, too, finishing 10th at the Bridgestone last week and 2nd in the Quicken Loans National the week prior. As I said: this guy should be considered a favorite along with the Spieths and McIlroys of the world, yet his odds are significantly longer. That’s what we call value, friends.
Patrick Reed (72.0)- Reed is flying under the radar a bit because he hasn’t contended in quite a while, notching zero top-10s in his last 13 starts. That doesn’t mean he’s playing poorly, though, and indeed he’s not– in addition to finishing 15th at last week’s Bridgestone Invitational, Reed put together solid performances at the Open, where he finished 20th, and the U.S. Open, where he placed 14th. In other words, there’s nothing at all wrong with Reed’s golf game; he’s actually put together a stretch that many pros would deem very successful. I believe he has a bit loftier goals in mind, though, (just ask him, he’ll tell you) and a win this week would be career-changing. Reed seems plenty comfortable in the bright lights so I don’t think he’s going to wilt under pressure if he finds himself in contention, and he seems to rise to the occasion in the bigger events, finishing in the top-25 in all three majors he’s played this year, as well as all three WGC events and The Players Championship. At better than 70/1, Reed is definitely worth a bet this week.
Bill Haas (190.0)- Haas is in the midst of a slump, right? I mean, that’s the popular narrative and it’s why you probably didn’t bat an eye when you saw his astronomically long odds this week, right? Well, golf is a funny game in that sometimes you “get it back” as quickly as you lose it, and that may be what we’re seeing with Bill Haas right now. Three weeks ago he appeared totally lost, having missed three straight cuts and finding himself on the wrong side of par in 6 of 7 competitive rounds at one point. And then, the light must’ve come on. Over the last two weeks Haas has played some great golf, finishing 4th at the Quicken Loans National and 25th at last week’s Bridgestone– a performance that would’ve been much better had it not been for a poor opening round. Haas has now broken par in 7 of his last 8 competitive rounds and seems to be back on the right path. Whistling Straits is a ball-strikers course and Haas is one of the best in the world outside 150 yards, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he were to contend this week. If you’re looking for a longshot with a legitimate chance to win, look no further.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Bubba Watson (1.91) vs. Dustin Johnson (1.91)
Johnson returns to the scene of his heartbreak (as does Bubba, who lost the playoff to eventual champion Kaymer back in 2010), but he doesn’t strike me as the type of guy who is overly bothered by such things. I expect we’ll see from him this week approximately what we see from him at every major: strong play, an extended stay on the first page of the leaderboard, and eventual disappointment. I believe he’s a safer bet to play well than Bubba, who has really struggled in majors this year (MC, MC, 38th). Recommendation: Johnson at 1.91
Billy Horschel (1.91) vs. Danny Willett (1.91)
Horschel was hot for a few weeks in May/June but he’s cooled off significantly since then, finishing outside the top-20 in each of his past four events. Willett, meanwhile, continues his climb up the world rankings, finishing 17th at the Bridgestone last week, 6th at the Open, and squeezing in a win at the Omega European Masters in-between those performances. Willett is a man on a roll right now and should be backed without hesitation in this matchup against Horschel. Recommendation: Willett at 1.91
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