TWIST TO ‘RACE OF THE CENTURY’: Class of 2015. And the two top boys could clash at York today in the race of the century, but one of them may bring a note to school: too wet for me to play! Daqman recalls the inaugural running of the race, when the favourite was vanquished. So there could be more than one twist today?
COMPLETE INTERNATIONAL SCENE: Here’s your guide to the big race, as seen by Daqman, with the rest of the card previewed below:
* History
* Form
* Verdict
EASY! BACK-TO-BACK NAPS UP: Daqman landed a BETDAQ-races Kempton Park naps double yesterday. He followed up his Monday best bet, Premier Currency (WON 11-8), with easy winner Kazziana (WON 10-11).
THE JOCKEY WHO HAD THE FRONT TO WIN
International: HISTORY: Shock from the start
Act One drama. Not since 1971 have two horses so dominated their Classic year. The two invincibles that season met only once but it was today’s inaugural International at York the following year that would bring down the curtain on their careers with one of the biggest upsets of all time.
Tactics would rob Brigadier Gerard of his 18th consecutive victory and stun the Knavesmire crowd into the silence of disbelief. There were even boos when the winner came in.
Like Gleneagles and Golden Horn, Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef were, respectively, champion miler and Derby winner supreme in 1971.
Strangely, when they met, we didn’t know their worth. They finished one-two in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket.
A ‘race of the century’ had happened under our noses, but we had no idea that, in the beaten Mill Reef, we were seeing the winner of the Derby, Eclipse, King George and Arc de Triomphe in the same season.
We expected Brigadier Gerard to win again.. but 17 times? Among them were Eclipse and King George of the following year, matching Mill Reef, so that, when the Brigadier lined up at York, the International was a partisan affair despite the absence of Mill Reef.
If Brigadier Gerard won and beat the 1972 Derby one-two Roberto and Rheingold (Lester Piggott), he would outgun his old nemesis Mill Reef and become champion of champions.
He did not win. Lester did not win. In fact, the International was won in a few strides at the start and, for the most part, was watched in stunned silence.
An unknown Panamanian jockey, Braulio Baeza, decided to race from the front, American style, and they never saw which way he went.
THE EAGLE AGAINST THE GOLDEN BOY?
International: FORM: The weather will decide
3.40 York, Wednesday (International Stakes) With the possible exception of Frankel in 2012, today is the race of all races, if only the ground will dry out that little bit to allow Gleneagles to challenge Golden Horn.
For Daqman’s race-by-race form guide to the big two, go to the green Daqman icon and cursor down to Archive to call it up in yesterday’s column.
RAIN MAKES HORN A GOLDEN BANKER
International: VERDICT: Gleneagles is a lay
We could still have a shock, with or without Gleneagles. That 1972 race reveals how tactics can turn over Derby winners. Fate in the form of rain blown across the Atlantic has turned today’s going to the soft side and the race into a stamina test, which suits Golden Horn.
In any event, he is outstanding on form over his main intended rival, Gleneagles, as the results reveal.
Gleneagles started the season off an official rating of 116, which his Guineas took to 122. Since then, despite his Irish Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes successes, it has remained static.
In fact, strictly, on the book, his defeats in those races of runners-up Endless Drama (106 at the Curragh) and Latharnach (104 at Ascot) derive a rating of 118 at the limit of imaginative tinkering.
Golden Horn, on the other hand, has soared from a 90 to 130 this season, and that 130 is generous by only a pound or two, in that he slammed the 112-rated Jack Hobbs in the Epsom Derby before that one’s stock soared to 123 in the Irish Derby.
Finally, he won a great galloping battle with The Grey Gatsby (123), which was worth topping up his official 126. And, since Golden Horn has run only five times, he should improve again.
In my estimation, then, he is so far clear – up to a stone – of Gleneagles that I am looking for something else to finish second.
On firm ground over a mile, things might have been different. But, over this extended 1m 2f in the softened conditions, Golden Horn is a gold banker.
The one to dig into softened terrain and cause an upset is Criterion, triple Group-1 winner in Australia. Even by finishing second, it’s an upset unless the field is diminished: 48.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
He won the Aussie Guineas and Derby on the soft and beat Red Cadeaux for his third Group 1 in April, finding the ground too firm when sent to Royal Ascot but still within hailing distance of The Grey Gatsby.
Gatsby, the great grey benchmark for two generations, couldn’t cope with Golden Horn on the last day but he might well cope with Gleneagles in the ground. My verdict demands a lay on Gleneagles.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Golden Horn 1, Criterion 2, The Grey Gatsby 3
A ‘SHORE’ THING FOR A PLACE AT 14.0
1.55 York Bogart was back to form here at York, third off today’s mark, the last time he ran over 5f, but it’s two seasons since he won this and he hasn’t scored in 16 starts since.
His trainer, Kevin Ryan, who also runs Distant Past, is on a hat-trick after Blaine followed up last year.
Distant Past won three out of four in class-4 events at the start of the year but continued to improve when beaten at a higher level, fourth in the Scottish Sprint Cup (class 3), then narrowly beaten at Ascot (class 2). Yet more is needed.
Epsom Dash winner Desert Law is now back to his August high of 2012, continuing to run well in big handicaps at Ascot and The Curragh. Now closely handicapped with Robot Boy. Dutch Masterpiece is also a tad high.
James Doyle, Ayr Silver Cup winner on consistent Huntsman’s Close, switches to his Goodwood winner Indescribable, well in now with Desert Law but needing fast ground.
Stablemate Midlander goes better on the soft but is badly off with Distant Past on Ascot form in July.
Shore Step’s Goodwood Stewards’ Sprint form suggests that today’s trip is ideal and his saddle slipped here in the York Dash last month or he might have beaten Tanzeel (Tangerine Tress, Bogart and Highland Acclaim behind).
Has won on good to soft and is 14.0 on BETDAQ as I right. Trainer Mick Channon in terrific form with five winners in five days.
Lucky Beggar (15.0) is better than the bare form and Charles Hills is having a great year with sprinters, notably the majestic Muhaarar.
HERE’S LOOKING AT 11.5 BETDAQ OFFERS
2.30 York (Acomb Stakes) Winners of this tend to remain stuck at Group-3 level at best, so his Dewhurst and Racing Post Trophy entries look adventurous for Adventurous.
In fact, all bar Bing Bang Bong are well entered up in the two-year-old ‘classics’ this autumn, but connections have no public aspirations for the Pricewise tip.
I told you on Monday that Richard Hannon had five left in here; now he’s down to just the one, Humphrey Bogart, so he must be closely watched (‘here’s looking at you, kid’).
Ok, no more wisecracks, what’s going to win it? It’s wide open at 6.0 the field in the orange early mouse, but I’ll take a cue from the breeding (same sire as Canford Cliffs) and from Ladbrokes (they’re much shorter at 8-1) and take 11.5 Humphrey Bogart.
3.05 York (Great Voltigeur Stakes) This has produced two subsequent winners of the Hardwicke and one of the King George but, despite its billing as a St Leger trial, has seen only Locarno land the double at Doncaster in the decade.
All bar Tashaar are St Leger entries this time around, with almost half the field sent out by Ballydoyle, three left from eight at the five-day stage.
It’s the usual game of musical jockeys. Is O’Donoghue, O’Brien or Heffernan on the stable’s best? Our experience this year is the QI answer: Nobody knows?
Storm The Stars has had a tremendous season, including placed in two Derbys, but we’d reckon lightly-raced sorts to improve at this stage of the season, and we’d reckon he’d be jaded, like Romsdal was last week.
All three O’Brien hopes are potential improvers, one of which, Aloft – outsider of the three this morning at 10.0 –beat Storm The Stars last season.
HEARTBREAK HIDDEN HORSE OF DAY ONE
4.20 York Anything you can do. Dermot Weld landed a gamble with Olympiad (2012) in this and Tony Martin tried to emulate him last year, but his Spacious Sky got left behind and closed too late (third). That was heartbreak city for the Summerhill stable.
But Martin is back this afternoon with the horse of that name, an unlucky third at the Galway Festival. When does the heartache end?
Maybe today in only Heartbreak City’s second Flat start in two years, with Galway only his second race after a year off. Hidden Horse or what!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points; except gold banker at SP)
BET 2.3pts win and place SHORE STEP, and 2.1pts win and place LUCKY BEGGAR (1.55 York)
BET 2.8pts win and place HUMPHREY BOGART (2.30 York)
BET 3pts win ALOFT (3.05 York)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts GLENEAGLES, and GOLD BANKER BET 30pts win (nap) GOLDEN HORN, plus 0.6pts win and 5pts place (to win 30) CRITERION (3.40 York)
HIDDEN HORSE: BET 4.6pts win HEARTBREAK CITY (4.20 York)
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