The PGA Tour season wraps up this week with a visit to Greensboro, North Carolina and Sedgefield Country Club, a classic Donald Ross design that has been hosting championship golf since 1925.
This will be the last opportunity for players to qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, which begin next week, and so a fairly strong field is on hand, one that features 13 former major champions and six of the past eight FedEx Cup winners. Without a doubt the biggest name in attendance is Tiger Woods, who is making his first-ever appearance at this event in a last-ditch attempt to qualify for next week’s playoffs. Woods has been struggling mightily, but if you think he can conjure up the old magic this week you can back him at 52.0 at BETDAQ.
Sedgefield is a relatively straightforward par-70 that is very short by Tour standards, measuring just over 7,100 yards, so this tournament is always a birdie-fest. Camilo Villegas came out of nowhere last year with a final-round 63 to finish 17-under par and capture his fourth PGA Tour victory, and it’s taken 14-under or better to win here in each of the last eight years. In other words, this is probably not the week for the steady “fairways & greens” guy with the balky putter who always makes the cut but just never seems to go low. This week will be all about making putts and stringing together birdies.
With no clear-cut favorite in the field, Brooks Koepka (16.0) has emerged as the short-odds choice at BETDAQ, followed by Brandt Snedeker (18.5), Hideki Matsuyama (20.0), and Branden Grace (24.0). None of those names will strike fear in the heart of your average Tour player, so it certainly wouldn’t be shocking to see a triple-digit longshot come out of the woodwork and take home the title this week. That being said, I’ll be (mostly) investing in safer options:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Brandt Snedeker (18.5)- Sedgefield is one of Snedeker’s favorite stomping grounds, as he’s had three top-10 finishes here since his win in 2007, including a T5 last year. His sore hip appeared to be a nonissue at last week’s PGA, where he finished 12th, and he’s now notched five top-15s in his last seven starts. A great putter and always a frontrunner on courses that feature an abundance of Bermuda grass (like Sedgefield), Snedeker is a blue-chip option this week.
Justin Thomas (31.0)- Thomas has found his game again after a mid-year slump, logging back-to-back top-5 finishes in the John Deere and the Quicken Loans National before placing 18th at Whistling Straits last week. And he has a history at Sedgefield, shooting an opening-round 65 in this tournament and going on to make the cut as a 16-year old amateur back in 2009. It was Thomas’ first PGA Tour event, and he’s spoken this week about how eager he is for “another shot” at Sedgefield. He perfectly fits the profile of a “go low” type with a penchant for stringing together birdies, as his prodigious length allows him to simply overpower some holes. In other words, Thomas seems primed for an excellent result this week.
David Toms (140.0)- While Toms is admittedly an outside-the-box play this week– after all, the guy is 48 years old and hasn’t won since 2011– I think it would be a mistake to write him off at a course like Sedgefield, where his lack of distance off the tee is less of a hindrance than usual. That’s especially true when you consider that he has five top-25 finishes in his last six appearances at this tournament and has placed in the top-20 in three of his past five PGA Tour events, including a solo 5th at the Barracuda Championship two weeks ago. Toms can still get it done, and at the current price I’m willing to back that statement up with cold, hard cash.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Adam Scott (1.91) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (1.82)
Scott missed the cut at last week’s PGA Championship and hasn’t made an appearance in Greensboro since 2009, so he’s rightfully not being viewed as one of the favorites this week. And while Matsuyama may be entering a mini-slump of his own– back-to-back 37th-place finishes at the WGC-Bridgestone and the PGA after stringing together seven consecutive top-20s– he’s still been lightyears better than Scott this year and has had some recent success at the Wyndham, finishing 15th here in 2013. Recommendation: Matsuyama at 1.82
Webb Simpson (1.87) vs. Martin Kaymer (1.87)
While Kaymer outperformed Simpson at the PGA last week, finishing 12th while Simpson languished in 54th, Sedgefield Country Club is not Whistling Straits. And whenever Simpson, a North Carolina native, comes to Sedgefield, he leaves with a big, fat check in his pocket. The 2011 champ has finished no worse than 22nd in his last five starts here, and I think he’s a great bet to beat Kaymer this week. Recommendation: Simpson at 1.87
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