FIVE CONSECUTIVE NAPS UP: Daqman made it five successful naps on the trot yesterday, when he named a BETDAQ place on Daisy Boy (3rd 6-1 from 9.0) as his best bet of the day at Nottingham, following a sequence of four bankers. The five naps:
Won 1-2 Shalaa (gold banker)
Won 10-11 Donna Graciosa (banker)
Won 5-6 Dark Emerald (banker)
Won 10-11 Kayla (banker)
3RD 6-1 Daisy Boy (place nap)
TODAY: ARC DE TRIOMPHE ABC: Daqman’s ABC Guides dig out the facts, apply the stats to the race and analyse each horse’s form and preferences, runner by runner. These are the headings from the last three ABC Guides, which concerned the Celebration Mile, Doncaster St Leger and Cambridgeshire:
KODI BEAR PUNTERS EXPECT CELEBRATION (Won 4-5)
LEGER SET TO BE BALLYDOYLE BEACH PARTY (Won 2-1)
MASTER TRAINER ELSWORTH TOP OF THE WORLD (2nd 25-1)
NEW BAY TICKS THE ARC BOXES AGAINST TREVE
2.55 Longchamp, Sunday (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe) It’s a race of question marks this year, not least because there could be big improvement from any one among a pack of lightly-raced horses.
Can Treve become the first triple winner; Flintshire get his revenge on lively ground? Or is the day set fair for one of the trio of Derby-winning three-year-olds, Golden Horn, Jack Hobbs and New Bay, successful at Epsom, The Curragh and Chantilly?
A Group winner last time out (8 out of 11)
B Trained France or Germany (9 out of 12)
C Aged three (9 out of 12)
D Filly or mare (5 out of 7)
E Won or placed Prix Vermeille or Prix Niel (8 out of 13)
X-factor (add later): Drawn 1 to 8 (9 out of 10)
ABCE New Bay
One of seven Longchamp CD winners in the Arc this year, lightly raced with just six starts – five wins – to his name.
His defeat came in the French 2,000 Guineas but, once stepped up to 10 and 12 furlongs, he has remained unbeaten, including in the French Derby and the major trial for this, the Prix Niel, in which he was not pressed to beat Silverware, Migwar and Erupt, who take him on again.
ABD Siljan’s Saga
Only 12th to Treve a year ago, starting at 100-1, and more than six lengths off her, fifth again, in a May race for fillies and mares at Saint-Cloud, where last year she won her only Group 1, also in May. All her seven wins have come with ‘soft’ in the going return.
ABD Treve
Runaway winner despite an Arc draw of 15 two years ago that proved the end of her then winning sequence – five in a row – and she was a year in the doldrums with niggling problems.
After three odds-on defeats, she was allowed to start at 11-1 for the 2014 Arc, though much more favourably drawn in stall 3. She refound that scintillating turn of foot and became the first back-to-back winner of the Longchamp championship since Alleged (1977-8).
AB Flintshire
Only eighth in this to Treve as a three-year-old, after running fourth in the Niel, but the good ground last year helped him improve his position to second, beaten only two lengths.
Ever since then, he has been kept away from give underfoot, and has landed Group/Grade-1 races in Hong-Kong and at Saratoga. But he could only partly close down Treve when they finished one-two in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in June.
AB Prince Gibraltar
Placed in the 2014 French Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris, but easy to back in the Arc, 28-1 and seventh in first-time blinkers. Group-1 winner in Germany this season, with blinkers back on that day for the first time since.
AC Golden Horn
Just when they thought it was safe to take on Golden Horn, the Cape Cross shark ate up another big race at Leopardstown, a Champion Stakes which could have a huge bearing on Longchamp.
He beat Found and Free Eagle – both rematching in the Arc – with Prix de l’Opera hope, Pleascach, fourth, and Highland Reel – second to New Bay in the French Derby – in fifth.
Golden Horn had won Dante, Epsom Derby and Eclipse, but seemed to have come to the end of his tether when outpointed at odds on by Arabian Queen in the York International.
Then came that Champion Stakes victory, which restored all the respect due an Epsom Derby winner.
AC Jack Hobbs
First he’ll run; then he won’t. Now back in the pack, and my original ace for the race, Jack Hobbs – like New Bay – is lightly raced and clearly given more time to mature before one of his final top targets of 2015, the Arc or the Champion Stakes.
With good ground forecast, it must surely be the Arc, after stepping out of Golden Horn’s shadow for a commanding victory in the Irish Derby and prepped earlier this month with a lap of honour at Kempton Park.
BCE Migwar
I’m labelling New Bay and Jack Hobbs as ‘lightly raced’ but Migwar has only four lines of form on his CV, a late (winning) start last season and three times placed on soft-heavy this term, including third to New Bay in the Prix Niel. Son of Sea The Stars, ‘could be anything’ on a sounder surface.
BCE Silverware
Well behind New Bay in the French Derby, then fourth to Erupt (good ground) in the Grand Prix de Paris, before reversing the placings with that one when they were second and fourth to New Bay on the soft in the Niel. Needs rain.
BC Erupt
Again, lightly raced – just five runs – but has rapidly increased his status from a 54-rated handicapper in May to Group-1 winner (Grand Prix De Paris in July) before emptying out on very soft ground, fading fourth behind New Bay, Silverware and Migwar in the Prix Niel trial.
BD Dolniya
Not far off the top, beating Flintshire twice (including Sheema Classic; Dubai, turf) this Spring. Fifth in last year’s Arc and similar distance behind Treve this summer, third in the Grand Prix de Saint-Coud. Disappointing on soft in the Prix Foy trial.
BD Frine
Winner on Arc Saturday last year but Group-1 attempts have resulted in Prix Royal Oak sixth and Vermeille fourth (12 lengths off Treve).
B Manatee
Group-2 winner twice, taking the Grand Prix de Chantilly on penultimate start but finding the Saint-Cloud version very tough, fourth behind Treve, Flintshire and Dolniya.
B Meleagros
Fourth in that Saint-Cloud Grand Prix, failing to confirm his Spring form, when he had Manatee a beaten favourite in fourth, as winner of a Group 3 over the Arc CD on very soft ground.
CD Found
Runner-up to Pleascach in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and to subsequent Prix du Moulin winner, Ervedya, in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, but improved on both when stepped up in trip.
Found won the Royal Whip at The Curragh by four lengths and ran up to Golden Horn, again over 10 furlongs, beaten only a length in the Irish Champion Stakes.
She’s by Galileo and her sister stayed 1m 4f, so she can’t be overlooked, though the Arc is her first attempt at the mile and a half. Has won on good, firm and soft.
D Tapestry
This was my number one last year, blush blush. In fact, she finished number 13 (!) with Treve, Flinsthire, Dolniya, Prince Gibraltar and Siljan’s Saga all in front of her.
My reasoning was that Tapestry had beaten Oaks winner Taghrooda in the York version but her Group-1 form overall is now 2002100. Has Aidan O’Brien rebuilt her?
She would certainly have beaten the winner, Ribbons, with a quarter of a mile further to go, after they were split by only half a length in the Blandford at The Curragh (good) earlier this month.
– Eagle Top
He’s looking very much a nearly horse now. Winner of the Royal Ascot Derby (King Edward V11 Stakes) last year but 44223 since at all Group levels, albeit including second, beaten favourite, in the King George. Eight races only on his CV.
– Free Eagle
Pipped The Grey Gatsby at Royal Ascot (Group 1) in a much-heralded return after lay-off, then absent again nearly three months when – to some – unlucky third, giving away weight for age, to Golden Horn and Found in the Irish Champion Stakes recently.
I’d be worried about the dash up the Longchamp straight, as he is not one to quicken immediately, but he does like good ground and is lightly raced (six runs in his life).
How many times have I said ‘lightly raced’ in today’s column! If I were on Treve, this would probably unnerve me most of all: that there are so many in this event with so little racing who could suddenly come on the proverbial ton and make a name for themselves.
Imagine Tapestry, Eagle Top and Free Eagle getting a favourable low draw, with Treve and Golden Horn drawn wide, and you have a completely different race. So don’t forget to add the X-factor!
HAVE FAITH IN SECOND WAVE
Trying to keep it safe today. Just three to pick from in my book with the Nap running at 7.45 in Chelmsford this evening.
Second Wave had a nice pipe opener at Haydock a few weeks back when finishing second to Woody Bay. His form previous to that was solid enough following two Redcar wins and a third in a decent race in Nottingham.
His apparent preference for better ground went against him last time along with a lack of race fitness and that should stand to him this evening and I fully expect him to be able to beat and improve on the All Weather.
We are starting to see some better jumps racing creeping in as we enter October and the 4.00 at Bangor is no different.
This is a competitive Chase over two and half miles and I can’t look any further than Valadom who annihilated his rivals at Worcester last time. Jack Sherwood takes off a very valuable five pounds and has this one very nicely weighted for his task.
Twenty minutes later at Warwick, Jonjo O’Neill and Richard Johnson team up with American Legend. While Off The Ground and Horatio Hornblower are also of note, they both lack a run and have to give weight away.
This should be another for the runaway leader in the Jockey’s Championship.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 5pts win ALADOM (4.00 Bangor on Dee)
BET 5pts win AMERICAN LEGEND (4.20 Warwick)
BET 8pts win (nap) SECOND WAVE (7.45 Chelmsford)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win Treble and 3x 1pt win Doubles on the above
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