Next year’s golf season starts this week! So says Tim Finchem anyway, as the 2015/16 campaign gets underway on Thursday with the Frys.com Open, one of the PGA Tour’s “wrap-around” events that have effectively made golf a year-round sport.
Most of the sport’s biggest names are on some tropical beach with their feet in the sand right now, but this year’s Frys.com Open will be graced by none other than Rory McIlroy, who is fulfilling an obligation that stems from his decision to play in a paid exhibition in Turkey three years ago. McIlroy is the prohibitive favorite at BETDAQ, saddled with odds so short (6.2) that I’m surprised anyone has backed him. I mean, he hasn’t exactly been dominant since returning from injury, and will he truly be motivated for an event in the middle of October with “.com” in the name?? I have my doubts. I’m sure he’ll enjoy his time in the beautiful California wine country, though.
Silverado Resort’s North Course will host this event for the second straight year; it’s a relatively short (7,203 yards), winding course that places a premium on ball striking– last year ten of the top fifteen finishers ranked 15th or better in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, so this may be a week to avoid the “scramblers”. Here are three players who I think are worth a look:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Hideki Matsuyama (17.0)- The odds are a little short, but it would be a surprise if Matsuyama didn’t contend this week considering his recent form– 25th or better in all four “playoff” events, a great weekend at the President’s Cup– and the fact that he finished 3rd in this tournament last year. Not only did he finish third, he ranked second in the field in Greens in Regulation, so he obviously knows his way around Silverado’s North Course. All that’s missing from Matsuyama’s impressive resume is a few more wins, and I won’t be the least bit surprised if he picks one up this week.
Emiliano Grillo (62.0)- Grillo has had moderate success all over the world so he’s clearly a guy whose game “travels” well, and that game is as good as its ever been right now after a blazing run through the PGA Tour’s Qualifying School (I know that’s not what they call it anymore, and I know that the Finals have been re-christened the Web.com Tour Championship, but it’s still Q-School for all intents and purposes). Not only did he win the Finals (Web.com Tour Championship) two weeks ago, but he finished second and 9th in the previous two events. With plenty of experience, leads of confidence and a hot putter, Grillo is a great value at 62.0.
Kevin Chappell (96.0)- If you’re looking for long odds, you may want to try Kevin Chappell, a guy who is playing very well at the moment, making 12 of his last 13 cuts and finishing 24th or better in all three “playoff” events. Chappell is a California native who has had success in NorCal before, winning the Nationwide Tour’s Stonebrae Classic in 2010, so there’s reason to like him this week beyond his current form. He’s worth a bet at the current price, I believe.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Brandt Snedeker (1.91) vs. Hunter Mahan (1.91)
Snedeker just hasn’t been right since his summertime hip injury, recording only one top-20 finish in his last seven events. Mahan hasn’t played much lately, but he was last seen playing well, finishing 4th in September’s Deutsche Bank Championship. His chances of beating Snedeker are better than a coin flip. Recommendation: Mahan at 1.91
Tony Finau (1.91) vs. Robert Streb (1.91)
Finau did play well in this tournament last year, finishing 12th, but he had a bad September, placing 47th at the BMW Championship after missing the cut at the Deutsche Bank Championship. Streb, meanwhile, has been an absolute ATM machine over the last couple of months, finishing 23rd or better in 7 of his last 9 events. Recommendation: Streb at 1.91
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