We’re into the meat of the NFL season now, with injuries piling up around the league and the true contenders beginning to separate themselves from the pack.
Atlanta, Denver, Cincinnati, Carolina, Green Bay, and New England all enter this Week 6 undefeated, but I have a feeling that no more than three of those teams will still be able to make that claim on Monday morning. The Falcons will be first to walk the plank, as they travel to New Orleans tonight as a precarious 3.5-point favorite over a Saints team that is desperate for a win. The total is 51.5 at BETDAQ, and based on what we’ve seen out of both teams’ defenses– New Orleans ranks 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in total defense, while Atlanta ranks 21st– I’d be awfully nervous about an Under bet.
Last week was nothing but rainbows and lollipops for us, as we cashed all four of our bets without having to really sweat out a single one. I know we’re not going to be that lucky all the time (believe me, I know…), but is it too much to ask for one more week in the sunshine? Whaddya say, football gods???
Washington Redskins @ New York Jets (NYJ -6, 40.5)
As you could probably surmise from the total, not a whole lot of offense is expected here. The Jets rank second in the league in total defense while the Redskins rank sixth, and neither team has been particularly explosive on the offensive side of the ball. These are very similar teams, both stylistically and– more importantly, in this case– qualitatively. At least that’s my opinion, anyway, and it’s why I like the ‘Skins as a 6-point ‘dog in this situation. Look, I know the Jets have been surprisingly good this year, but– and here’s what I think some people are missing– so have the Redskins. Yes, I realize they have a losing record (2-3), but they went on the road last week and nearly beat the undefeated Falcons before falling in overtime, a performance that served as concrete proof that this Washington team is not only significantly better than they were projected to be by the so-called “experts” (myself included) prior to the season, but that they’re good enough to be a serious factor in the wide-open NFC East. This is a better-than-average team right now, and their defense should match up very well with the run-first New York offense this week, forcing Ryan Fitzpatrick to take to the air more often than he probably should. Fitz is having a nice year, but he ain’t Aaron Rodgers. I’ll take the points. Recommendation: Washington +6 at 1.91
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (Den -4, 42.5)
This Denver team sort of seems like the Emperor with No Clothes, doesn’t it? I mean, the record is unblemished, Peyton Manning is still under center, the defense is chock-full of Pro Bowl-level talent, and yet… see for yourself. Not only do they look nothing like the mighty Super Bowl contender that they were supposed to be, but, well… how you put it? THEY DON’T EVEN RESEMBLE A GOOD TEAM. In every one of their five wins– wins, by the way, that have come against teams with a combined record of 6-18– they have looked eminently beatable. The emperor has no clothes, and it’s time we bettors recognize it. Conversely, the Browns are a team that entered the season with typically low expectations and they sport an unimpressive 2-3 record, but watching them play leaves you with an undeniable sense that they’re better than their record indicates, possibly much better. Josh McCown has thrown for a mind-boggling 1,154 yards over the last three weeks, while his counterpart on Sunday, the great Manning, has looked downright old and uncomfortable in adjusting to Gary Kubiak’s new system. The Broncos have scored 24 points or fewer in four of their five games this season, and frankly I think they may have trouble keeping up with the explosive Cleveland offense on Sunday (I know, I can’t believe I just typed that sentence, either). Recommendation: Cleveland +4 at 1.92
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (Sea -7, 41)
While Atlanta and Denver both have dangerous-feeling road games this week, no undefeated team is in a tougher spot than the 4-0 Panthers, who travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks. The ‘Hawks are off to a disappointing 2-3 start to the season after last week’s loss to Cincinnati, but they’ve been nearly unbeatable at home over the past few years and that has remained the case in 2015, as they’ve won their two home games by a combined score of 39-10. The famed Legion of Boom secondary should have no trouble suffocating a feeble Carolina passing attack that has lacked a dynamic receiver since losing Kelvin Benjamin to a preseason injury; only three teams leaguewide currently average fewer pass yards per game than the Panthers, and so their most effective weapon on offense has been the running of quarterback Cam Newton. Really, though, the offense in Carolina has been feeding off the play of the defense, a unit that has been terrific even without star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. And that’s my only concern with a Seahawks bet here: that the Panthers defense, which will have Kuechly back in the lineup for the first time since Week 1, could smother a Seattle offense that has been very average in recent weeks, resulting in the type of ugly, low-scoring game in which giving 7 points is less than ideal. That’s not what I think will happen, though. I fully expect this game to turn into the type of one-sided beating where the defense of one team (Seattle in this case) outscores the offense of the other team. Carolina simply won’t be able to move the ball, and I don’t think Newton will be able to pull any rabbits out of the hat this time around. Recommendation: Seattle -7 at 1.97
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers (Bal -2.5, 44)
These are two bad teams. I mean, that should be pretty clear based on what we’ve seen so far this season, right? Well, I get it and you may too, but apparently there are some really slow learners out there, at least when it comes to Baltimore. This marks the fourth straight game in which the Ravens have been favored, despite that fact that they’ve yet to cover this season and have won only once. And if they are without go-to wideout Steve Smith for the second straight game– and they may be, considering he’s listed as questionable with a BROKEN BACK– then Joe Flacco will once again be relying on a collection of NFL nobodies as he tries to beat a 49ers defense that has been stout at home, surrendering just 20 combined points in two games (and one of those games was against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers). As bad as things look for the Baltimore offense, though, the Ravens may be in even worse shape on the other side of the ball, as they were torched for 457 pass yards (!) by Josh McCown (!!) last week in a 33-30 loss to the Browns and have now allowed 30.2 points per game over the past four weeks despite facing questionable opposition (Oakland, Cleveland, Pittsburgh sans Roethlisberger… and Cincinnati, the only quality team in the bunch). The Niners showed fight in a gut-wrenching loss to the Giants last week, with Colin Kaepernick and the offense finally coming to life after a couple of terrible performances. Something tells me that a home game against the generous Baltimore defense is just what Kaepernick needs right now. Recommendation: San Francisco +2.5 at 1.91
2015 Record– 12-8
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