NFL WEEK 10: While Week 10 may be a little light on the “marquee” matchups, it certainly doesn’t lack for interesting storylines. Take tonight’s game, for instance, when the Buffalo Bills travel to New York to face their division rival Jets. It will be Rex Ryan’s first appearance on the sidelines of MetLife Stadium since he was unceremoniously fired by the Jets following last season, and to add a little spice to the proceedings Ryan has named I.K. Enemkpali a captain for the game. For those who don’t remember, Enemkpali is the former Jet who broke Geno Smith’s jaw in a preseason fight, an occurrence which prompted the Jets to release Enemkpali and name Ryan Fitzpatrick the starting quarterback. Ironically, then, it was probably the Punch That Saved The Season for New York, while also allowing Enemkpali to reconnect with his former coach. A win for all involved, eh? (All except Geno Smith, I suppose.)

The Jets have been the better team this year and they’re a 2.5-point favorite at BETDAQ, but I have a feeling we may see a mild upset tonight. The Bills were really good on both sides of the ball in a 16-point win over Miami last week, proving again that they’re a different team with Tyrod Taylor under center. Of course, my “feelings” have been pretty costly over the past couple weeks, as we’ve hit on just two of our last 8 selections in a dreadful little stretch that has dropped the YTD record to 18-18, a coin flipper’s delight. Hopefully these four games will get us back in the black:

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (Phi -6.5, 48)

The Dan Campbell honeymoon is over in Miami, as the Dolphins have lost their last two games by 45 combined points after a promising 2-game win streak that followed Campbell’s promotion to head coach. This week will tell us a lot about the 2015 Dolphins: will they be a competitive team that hovers around .500 and keeps playoff hopes alive into December, or will they spiral into double-digit losses and the end of the Ryan Tannehill era? Most people appear to be leaning towards the latter scenario, as the Eagles are a popular public bet at sportsbooks around the world this week despite a 6.5-point number, which equals the most points Philly backers have had to lay in a game this year. In watching the Eagles squeak by Dallas in overtime last week, though, I was reminded– YET AGAIN– that they’re a deeply flawed team. And maybe “flawed” is a poor descriptor, because the problem can be better characterized as a lack of positives than an abundance of flaws. This Philly team simply doesn’t do anything really well. The passing game has been a disappointment (was going to say “Sam Bradford has been a disappointment”, but the supporting cast has been an issue as well), the running backs seem underused and the rushing attack as a whole has been much less effective than it was in 2014; and the defense is feisty but still eminently beatable, having surrendered 54 combined points over the past two weeks. The Miami offense is balanced and quarterback Ryan Tannehill has had stretches of brilliance throughout his career, which is probably more than you can say for Sam Bradford. I’m not one who expects the Dolphins to give up on the season at this point– there’s just so much at stake for everyone involved, from the coaching staff to the starting quarterback on down. The bigger concern for me is the play of the Miami defense, a unit that has been steamrolled in each of the last two games. Can the Eagles take advantage, though? Does Sam Bradford inspire any confidence in… anybody? Am I missing something??? I expect the Dolphins to keep this one close and possibly win outright.  Recommendation: Miami +6.5 at 1.94

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Pit -4.5, 41)

You’ll want to pay attention to the injury report when it’s released on Friday, because the starting quarterbacks for both of these teams are battling injuries. Cleveland’s Josh McCown has been dealing with bruised/broken ribs and was forced to miss last week’s loss to Cincinnati, while Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger sprained his foot against Oakland last Sunday and has been in a walking boot this week. For what it’s worth, I firmly expect McCown to play– Browns coach Mike Pettine has said that he’ll start if he’s healthy– and I’d be shocked if we see Roethlisberger out there. And if it turns out to be McCown vs. Landry Jones, which I think it will be, then I think Cleveland has an excellent chance to win this game. Remember– Le’Veon Bell, the centerpiece of the Pittsburgh offense when Jones was forced to play earlier this year, is now out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. DeAngelo Williams is a capable backup, but he’s no Bell, and the Steelers offense will struggle to move the ball consistently with Jones under center and Williams as the lead back. The Cleveland offense, meanwhile, has exceeded all expectations whenever McCown has been healthy enough to play, scoring 20 points or more in 6 of the 7 games that he’s started and finished. The Browns haven’t won in Pittsburgh since 2003, but they’re coming off a mini-bye (having played last Thursday) and the Steelers will be without their two most important offensive players… hey, it could happen. Throw 4.5 points into the mix and I’m enthusiastic about it. Recommendation: Cleveland +4.5 at 1.91

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (Sea -3, 45)

This is the late game on Sunday and it’s probably the best game of the week, so you may want to cook up a good excuse for missing work on Monday morning (food poisining is always a fool-proof option.. not contagious yet can’t really be questioned. Plus, you can leave early if you “feel another bout coming on”) . The Cards have looked like the team to beat in the West this season, but are they really ready to go into Seattle and vanquish the defending NFC champs in a critical, must-win (for Seattle) game? I’m a little skeptical. After all, the Seahawks have rebounded since their 4th-quarter meltdown against Carolina last month, allowing just 15 combined points in back-to-back road wins over San Francisco and Dallas. The ‘Hawks now rank second in the NFL in both yards allowed and points allowed and they’re coming off a Week 9 bye, so they’re rested, ready, and as healthy as they’ll be for the remainder of the season. The Arizona offense has been explosive this season but the Cards always struggle to score in Seattle, producing a mere 3 points in a lopsided loss last year and just 17 (and 192 total yards, and 4 Carson Palmer interceptions) in their 2013 visit. So why, then, are Arizona backers so confident that things will be different this time around? They’d probably tell you that the Cardinals  are better offensively than they have been in years past, and that may be true. If they’re also banking on the Seattle defense to be softer this season, though, I think they’ll be disappointed. As was previously mentioned, the ‘Hawks seem to have rediscovered their groove since the disappointing Carolina game, and their key players (most notably Kam Chancellor, an early-season holdout) are all back in the fold. This is a battle-hardened, championship-level Seahawks team, and if they have any chance of catching the Cards in the division they absolutely must win this game. I like their chances. Recommendation: Seattle -3 at 1.91

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (Cin -10.5, 47)

Have we officially reached “sell high” time with the Bengals? They’re 8-0 but they hadn’t been favored by more than 3.5 in any game until last week, when they covered as a 13-point favorite over the Browns (and backup quarterback Johnny Manziel). In other words, this Cincinnati team hasn’t really been treated like a legitimate contender in the betting marketplace until now, and with good reason– after all, we’ve seen this before from the Bengals. Only once in the past four years (2012) have they lost more than twice over the first eight weeks of the season, and yet by December they always seem to morph into a non-threatening entity. The cast of characters is mostly unchanged, from Marvin Lewis to Andy Dalton on down, and here we are again: it’s mid-November and Cincinnati sits atop the AFC North. They’re a good team, no doubt, but good enough to be trusted as a double-digit favorite over a competitive Houston team that’s coming off a bye? I don’t think so. The Texans have turned things around since Brian Hoyer took over at quarterback, winning two of their past three games and scoring 20 points or more in five straight. They’re right in the thick of things in the AFC South– a reality that was driven home when Andrew Luck’s latest injury was announced– so this is a critical game for them. I’m not sure they can pull off the upset, but I expect a good fight and a competitive ballgame. The double-digit number here is a little extreme, in my opinion. Recommendation: Houston +10.5 at 1.87

2015 Record– 18-18