NFL WEEK 12: The Thanksgiving holiday is about food, fellowship, and football– not always in that order. This year’s festivities commence with a showdown between two disappointing teams, as Chip Kelly’s Eagles look to keep their fading playoff hopes alive against a Detroit team whose postseason dreams have all but evaporated (Det -2.5, 46). After that we go to Dallas, where Tony Romo will be making his second start since returning from a broken collarbone and Cam Newton will be looking to keep his team undefeated and further his MVP candidacy (Dal -1, 45.5). The nightcap is an NFC North showdown between bitter rivals Green Bay and Chicago (GB -8.5, 45), so we get to watch the great Aaron Rodgers shred the generous Chicago defense as our turkey digests and we slip in and out of consciousness. Ahhh… gotta love the holiday season.
Of course, my Thanksgiving will be a little brighter if I can get some of these games to fall my way, as I’m in the midst of a horrible cold spell that has dropped the overall record below the Mendoza Line for the first time in a couple of years. These little slumps always come to an end, though, and for the sake of my kids’ Christmas let’s hope this one ends now. With that in mind, here are this week’s selections:
New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans (Hou -3, 47)
Both the Saints and Texans have had their share of problems this year– Houston has started three different quarterbacks and has surprisingly struggled on defense, while the Saints have given “defensive struggles” a new meaning in allowing more passing touchdowns than any team in NFL history through 10 games. There’s reason for hope in New Orleans, though, as defensive coordinator Rob Ryan was fired prior to the team’s Week 11 bye, so Dennis Allen– a respected defensive mind and the former head coach in Oakland– has had two weeks to shore up the stop unit. And if Allen can improve the defense even a little bit the Saints could be on to something, because their offense has been typically brilliant under the guidance of Drew Brees, ranking 2nd in the league in both total yards per game and pass yards per game. The Houston offense, meanwhile, is downright ugly. Star running back Arian Foster was lost for the season with an Achilles injury, leaving the Texans without a difference-making ball carrier, and the passing attack has been entirely dependent on the exploits of DeAndre Hopkins. Quarterback Brian Hoyer returns this week after missing last week’s game with a concussion, but if this comes down to Hoyer vs. Brees the Texans are in big, big trouble. And I guess that’s where I’m at here: I don’t have much faith at all in the Houston offense; I have full faith in Drew Brees and the Saints offense, and I think there’s a better-than-average chance that the New Orleans defense plays one of their best games of the season considering they’re coming off a bye and surely debuting some new, Dennis Allen-inspired wrinkles that Houston hasn’t seen yet. I’m calling for the upset here. Recommendation: New Orleans +3 at 1.9
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (NYJ -3.5, 42)
The Jets have lost four of five after a promising start, as the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led offense has regressed and the defense hasn’t been quite as dominant as they were over the first month of the season. They badly need a win this week to remain in the thick of the Wild Card race, and many think they’ll have no trouble with a Miami team that has suffered three double-digit losses in their last four games and seems to be teetering on the edge of disintegration under interim coach Dan Campbell. If I were you, though, I’d wait a bit before shoveling dirt on these Dolphins. They’re a talented team, they’re fairly healthy, and everyone in the organization, from head coach Dan Campbell to starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill on down, is playing for his job, so I don’t think there’s any threat of the Fins “laying down” against their division rival this week. And the Dolphins seem to play better on the road, with three of their four wins this season coming away from home, so the fact that this game is in New York is pretty much a non-factor. Honestly, I’ve watched the Jets extensively over the last month and they don’t strike me as a team that should be relied upon as a favorite of more than a field goal. And yes, I’m aware that these teams met back in September and the Jets walked away with a 13-point win, but both teams were vastly different then– the Dolphins were on the tail end of a 3-game slide that ended up costing head coach Joe Philbin his job, while the Jets were rolling. Things have changed a bit, especially for a New York team that has that unmistakable “fading fast” feel. This is going to be a close one that could go either way, I believe, so I’ll gladly take the points. Recommendation: Miami +3.5 at 1.86
San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Jax -4, 46.5)
These are heady times in Jacksonville, as the Jags have won two straight games for only the second time in the last five years and now find themselves just a game back of the lead in the dreadful AFC South. At the risk of dumping cold water on the celebration, though, I’d like to point out that Jacksonville’s two recent wins have come against Baltimore and Tennessee, two of the NFL’s worst teams, and both of those games could have gone either way (that’s putting it mildly for the Baltimore game, where a freak penalty on the final play of regulation moved the Jags into range for the winning field goal on an untimed down). Now the Jaguars get another team that’s struggling mightily– the 2-8 San Diego Chargers. It’s “gut-check” time for Mike McCoy’s Chargers after an embarrassing 33-3 loss to Kansas City last week– will they totally collapse and find themselves at the top of the draft, or will they show some professional pride and win some ballgames over the last month of the season? Considering they’re quarterbacked by the great Philip Rivers, I’m leaning towards the latter option. Rivers has been spectacular despite all the carnage around him, topping 300 yards passing in five straight games prior to last week. His offensive line is healthier than its been in awhile, too, as starting tackle King Dunlap and guard Orlando Franklin are now back in the lineup after extended absences. And Rivers will be facing a terrible Jacksonville secondary that has been the clear weakness of the team this season, so a monster game is a definite possibility. If that happens– if Rivers has a huge game, as he did last year against Jacksonville (377 yds, 3 TDs)– then you have to like the Chargers as a 4-point ‘dog here, right? I mean, the Jags rank 25th in the league in points scored, producing just 21.1 per game. They are not an offensive powerhouse. And, as previously mentioned, the Jags have been extremely fortunate to beat two bad teams over the last couple of weeks. I think I’ll trust the better quarterback here. Recommendation: San Diego +4 at 1.89
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (Cle -3, 41)
The Browns knew the circus was coming to town when they drafted Johnny Manziel a couple of years ago, but they probably figured the distractions would be balanced by some good times. Two years in, though, and the only headlines Johnny Football has made have been off the field, and they haven’t been good. The latest misstep came during Cleveland’s Week 11 bye, when Manziel was filmed during a night of drunken debauchery at a Texas bar. This was especially idiotic on his part, as he had been named the starter for the remainder of the season despite head coach Mike Pettine’s obvious reluctance to put him out there. All that’s changed now, though, as Pettine has demoted Manziel to 3rd-string and re-installed Josh McCown as the team’s starter. That news may have hit some Johnny Football fans hard, but it instantly made me turn my eyes to the Browns as a short home favorite against Baltimore this week. Though many haven’t noticed because of the team’s poor record, the Cleveland offense has been very effective this year when McCown’s been under center. The veteran McCown is having a career year at age 36, completing 65% of his passes and averaging over 300 pass yards per game in his six starts. He torched the dreadful Baltimore secondary back in Week 5, throwing for 457 yards (!) and two touchdowns in a 33-30 Browns win. There’s absolutely no reason to have confidence in the Ravens slowing him down this week, either, considering their total inability to defend the pass this season. This is a prime-time home game for a Cleveland team in turmoil, and I have a feeling they’ll come through with a resounding victory. Recommendation: Cleveland -3 at 1.96
2015 Record– 21-23
