NFL WEEK 15: Week 14 provided a shot of clarity for the playoff picture, especially in the NFC, where it now seems all but certain that the two Wild Card teams will be Seattle and whoever loses the Green Bay/Minnesota race in the North. The East is still wide open and probably won’t be decided until Week 17, but it doesn’t really matter, anyway, as whichever team emerges from the muck will likely become first-round cannon fodder. Carolina and Arizona are clearly the two best teams in the conference, though the rising Seahawks will be a tough out and both the Packers and Vikings are capable of pulling an upset.
The AFC is a bit more unsettled, with three 8-5 teams– Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and the New York Jets– vying for two Wild Card berths. Thing is, all three of those teams may be stronger right now than division leaders Denver and Cincinnati, as the Broncos have been putrid on offense under Brock Osweiler and are reportedly considering turning back to the washed-up carcass that used to be Peyton Manning, while Andy Dalton’s broken thumb changes everything for a Bengals team that was just routed by the Steelers on Sunday. One thing everybody should be able to agree on: barring an injury to Tom Brady, the New England Patriots will enter the postseason as the undisputed favorites to once again represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Pats face two sub-.500 teams in their last three games, so it’s likely they’ll hold on to their lead in the standings and lock up home-field advantage throughout. Can any of the other contending teams go into Foxborough in January and win a playoff game? Doubtful, methinks.
We made a little cash last week, hitting on three of our four selections, so our dismal November is now just a distant memory as we embark upon a weekend that will determine whether my kids think Santa Claus loves them or not (always good to bolster the idea that the Fat Man doles out gifts subjectively, based on behavior. That way you’ve got all your avenues covered). Here’s what I’m thinking:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (KC -7.5, 41)
It’s been a disastrous season in Baltimore, and the cavalry is nowhere in sight. Head coach John Harbaugh seems to be fully aware of this, telling reporters this week, “In my mind, next year’s season has already begun.” That’s a fine little cliche to trot out there, but it’s completely nonsensical considering that many players who will suit up for Baltimore on Sunday will not be on the team next year. No, what Harbaugh is really saying is, “This season is over. We’ll do the best we can to stay motivated and healthy over the next three weeks.” Next up for Harbaugh’s Ravens are the streaking Chiefs, a team that’s won seven straight games and would make the playoffs if the season ended today. The Chiefs have been doing it with defense, surrendering 20 points or fewer in 8 of their last 9 games, and this week that defense will feast on a Ravens offense that is without its starting quarterback, left tackle, tailback, and best receiver. Backup quarterback Matt Schaub, who has thrown four interceptions in two starts this season, was forced to miss last week’s game with a chest injury, and Jimmy Clausen’s relief performance was predictably disastrous, with the Ravens managing just 6 points in a blowout loss to Seattle. Schaub is officially listed as questionable this week, but frankly I’m not sure if his appearance in the lineup would be a good thing or a bad thing for the home team. Bottom line: Baltimore’s offense is an absolute mess right now; if they topped 17 points or 300 total yards this week it would be a surprise. And if you’re squeamish about backing an occasionally low-scoring Chiefs offense as a 7-point road favorite, you should take comfort in knowing that these Ravens surrender 25.1 points per game and rank 22nd against the pass… in other words, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed ain’t walking through that door. This one could get ugly. Recommendation: Kansas City -7.5 at 1.94
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Jax -3, 49)
These teams are viewed very differently at the moment: Atlanta is seen as a team in crisis, with six straight losses derailing a once-promising season and the whispers of front-office change growing increasingly louder. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is seen by many as an ascending team with a good, young nucleus of talent. Both of these descriptions are accurate to a degree– indeed, the Falcons have fallen apart after winning six of their first seven games, while the Jags have already won more games than they did last season and have seemingly found the long-term answer at quarterback in Blake Bortles. Those characterizations do not, however, have anything to do with which team is actually better-equipped to win Sunday’s game in Jacksonville. For all their faults, the Falcons still have one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, ranking 7th in the league in both total yards per game and pass yards per game. Matt Ryan is an elite passer, and wideout Julio Jones may be the best in the game at his position. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are horrendously bad in the secondary, ranking 25th against the pass and allowing more pass plays of 15+ yards than all but two teams leaguewide. It’s hard to imagine the Jacksonville defense slowing down Ryan and the Falcons, so the onus will be on Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville offense to keep pace. Bortles has had his moments this season, but he still struggles with the short-to-intermediate throws and he’s entirely too careless with the football. He’s no Matt Ryan, in other words, and he doesn’t have Ryan’s supporting cast, either. This is the perfect “buy low” time for Atlanta– their embarrassing blowout loss in Carolina last week gives casual bettors the impression that they’re worse than they actually are (four of their previous five losses had come by 4 points or fewer), so nobody’s particularly eager to throw money at them as a short road ‘dog. Nobody except for us, that is. Recommendation: Atlanta +3 at 1.91
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Pit -7, 45)
The Denver defense has been the NFL’s most effective unit this season, leading the league in both yards allowed and points allowed, but they’ll be entering the lion’s den on Sunday when they visit Pittsburgh to face Big Ben and the red-hot Steelers. Even without difference-making running back Le’Veon Bell, the Pittsburgh offense has been downright unstoppable lately, producing 185 combined points in the team’s last five games. You have to go all the way back to a late-October loss to Cincinnati– Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back after a month-long injury-related absence– to find a game in which the Steelers were held below 30 points. So I’m not really sure what the realistic expectations are for the Denver D here– would limiting Pittsburgh to, say, 24 points and 325 total yards be considered a success? Because if the standards aren’t a bit higher than that– and I don’t know that they realistically can be, considering what we’ve seen out of the Steelers lately– then I don’t like the Broncos chances in this one at all. I mean, if you’re waiting for the Denver offense to explode, I’d advise you not to hold your breath. Brock Osweiler has looked very much like the inexperienced neophyte that he is in recent weeks, and the offense has managed 17 points or fewer in three of Osweiler’s four starts despite facing some very beatable defenses (Chicago, San Diego, Oakland…). There have been rumblings about the team possibly going back to Manning before the playoffs, but this week we know that we’ll see the same Denver offense that we’ve seen over the last month: an ineffective running game complemented by an even more ineffective passing attack. Can the stout Broncos defense hold down the Steelers all game? I don’t think they can. Recommendation: Pittsburgh -7 at 2.00
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles (Ari -3.5, 50.5)
The 2015 Eagles are the rare team that looks unimpressive even in victory. They delivered me my only loss of Week 14 when they held on to beat Buffalo, but instead of that experience making me a bit more gun-shy about fading Chip Kelly’s crew, it’s emboldened me. Repeat after me: the Eagles are not a good team. They have a dreadful defense that ranks 27th in total yards allowed and has surrendered 20 points or more in seven consecutive games, and their offense has become entirely reliant on the dink-and-dunk short passing game, as the once-feared Chip Kelly rushing attack has died on the vine while the lack of game-breaking wideouts has robbed the unit of its explosiveness. Philly now ranks a pedestrian 16th in total offense and they don’t seem to be improving, with Sam Bradford needing 38 attempts to accumulate 231 passing yards last week and no Eagles tailback gaining more than 41 yards on the ground. Like I said, watching that Buffalo game didn’t exactly make me an Eagles believer. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are the real deal. They’re the only team in the NFL to rank in the top-4 in both total offense and total defense, and with Carolina two games up in the race for home-field advantage and the Seahawks nipping at their heels in the division, they have plenty of reason to stay motivated. The juiciest matchup here is Carson Palmer and the tremendous Arizona receiving corps against the porous Philly secondary. Palmer is averaging 299 pass yards per game this season and he’s had success against some of the league’s toughest defenses, so he should carve up the Eagles without much difficulty. And if you think Sam Bradford and the Eagles are finally going to break loose for a big game and match Palmer score-for-score, I contend that there’s simply no evidence to base that on. This isn’t rocket science: back the better team. Recommendation: Arizona -3.5 at 1.92
