CHRISTMAS COMES TOMORROW FOR PUNTERS: Daqman scored with his fourth winning nap out of five yesterday through Anna De Grissay (WON 5-2) to bring his naps profit to 316 points in the jumps season so far to 20-point level stakes. The four are:
WON 1-2 Bit Of A Puzzle (banker)
WON 2-1 Le Mercurey (banker)
WON 2-1 Thistlecrack ( banker)
WON 5-2 Anna De Grissay
NINE WINS IN THREE DAYS: It was his third successive day in profit, with three Monday winning bets to add to three each on Saturday and Sunday, which included winners at 8-1 and 7-1. He is now around 71 points up since Saturday. Yesterday’s winners:
WON 5-2 Anna De Grissay
WON 15-8 Cold As Ice
WON 11-10 Westren Warrior
CHRISTMAS CRACKERS IN DAQ MULTIPLES: Daqman has roast the layers like turkeys yet again this week so today he’s dabbling with outsiders, real crackers for mixed bets. A win for just two of them would take the cake.
EVERY NATIONAL POUND WILL COUNT
Christmas is here already for punters. I mean two non-racing days (before The Day) in which to study the form for Sunday’s Welsh Grand National, with 9.8 the field in THE BETDAQ orange. Pour yourself a quiet one and pull up a mince pie.
Some 10 horses are in the comfort zone up to 19.5. How do they fit the stats from past results of the Chepstow marathon? Here’s how I see it:
Winners of the Aintree Grand National have been older horses (mainly 10 or 11) five times in six seasons. This applies 10 times in the last 15 years, but including one 12-year-old.
This law of experience applies to several other marathons, but not to the Welsh Grand National. You have to go back 20 years to find a winner of a double-figure age.
Racing mythology has it that young horses have come to the fore in big races this century. In fact, the change as far as Chepstow is concerned seemed to happen in the 1980s.
Seven consecutive winners of the Welsh Grand National from 1980 were seven-year-olds. No winner since 1994 has been older than nine, and for the last nine years none older than eight.
They have carried a low weight. Since Earth Summit won in 1997, only two winners in the intervening years have been saddled with more than 11st.
The weights have risen for Sunday’s race, with the defection of Houblon des Obeaux, The Giant Bolster and The Druid’s Nephew.
So it ain’t necessarily so, that the horse you saw below 11st at the beginning of the week is still in that position today. But what difference does the odd pound make?
Well, quite bit it seems, as those stats reveal, particularly with the ground described as heavy, soft in places and with more rain forecast.
Black Thunder and O’Faolains Boy go top to 11st 12lb in the long handicap, which still leaves four horses out of the handicap proper, below 10st.
And applying the stats cuts the remainder in half, leaving you to choose from 15 only runners below the age of nine and below 11st. Four are burdened with penalties; two haven’t raced for more than 250 days.
BETDAQ: 9.8 Cogry, 10.0 Upswing, 10.5 Midnight Prayer, 13.0 Emperior’s Choice and 13.5 each O’Faolain’s Boy and Shotgun Paddy.
RELATION ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS
12.40 Wolverhampton There are 10 days left of a three-year-old’s second season, not that he gets any leniency from the handicapper at this late stage.
But he should be the improver in the field, particularly here against much older horses. The only previous winner of this on Tapeta was a three-year-old.
Seve, a winner at Sandown in July, drops back to the minumum after his introduction to this surface; Red Stripes won at Chelmsford in first-time visor but has been unable to follow up in eight starts since and the visor was soon discarded; Luiz Vaz de Torres also won in July and has been thereabouts on AW this autumn.
Pensax Lad scored at Wolver in January and was back to form at Chelmsford on the last day. He put back-to-back wins together at the start of the year.
But he’s never won in better than class 4, whereas Oriental Relation scored a grade higher at Chelmsford; the other recent winners in the race are lower class.
Oriental Relation and Luis Vaz De Torres both look big at 13.0 on BETDAQ this morning. It’s not as if I’m opposing hot stuff; they go 5.3 the field, as I write, so they’re nervous at the front of the market.
THANKS FOR THE MEMORY
1.30 Southwell (Bet Now With The Ladbroke App Handicap) This is the quality race of the day, a decent field for a class-3 prize, containing several sequence winners.
It’s a tricky trip, this turning 7f, but there are four course winners, two over the distance., with Ian’s Memory one of the likely lads today.
Ian’s Memory missed out on a four-timer by only half a length, during a winning spree spaced out from January to August. That’s taken him up more than a stone, and he needed to switch to blinkers in June.
The four-year-old has won on both trips to Southwell and Jeremy Noseda has a 25% strike rate on AW and 44% at Southwell (4-9).
It could be argued that Trojan Rocket better deserves his position in the handicap, since his hat-trick around this time last year was achieved in a huge step from class 6 to class 2.
Snag is that all his wins were at 6f and he hasn’t won at today’s trip since the start of another winning sequence – four out of five – in February 2012.
Invoke won four out of seven on turf in the summer but has failed to score in eight tries on AW.
Showboating’s Southwell form is 4112 but he’s 12lb higher than for his last success. Paper-favourite Cordite, on the other hand, has dropped 16lb in the last 13 months.
He’s been running well lately in class 2, including at Southwell on the last day, but everything has to fall right for him: he’s never won a handicap and is 1-20, his sole success a maiden in 2013. He was a big drifter early mouse.
Twin Appeal, who won at Doncaster in the summer, was just in front of him last time and is yet another sequence winner in the race, three wins from four starts in the summer of 2014.
Air of York has to make the leap from class 6, and showed no signs of doing so when raised to class 4 on the last day. He’s not well drawn.
Dubai Hills, Fairway To Heaven and Run With Pride are on long losing runs, and my first position has to be Ian’s Memory (6.0). I might try offering 4.5 Twin Appeal (he’s 4.0 as I write) and get to earn myself a drop to 2% commission, if I get a match.
THE RACE IS TO THE SWIFT
2.30 Southwell The Lock Master, Oratorio’s Joy and Jacobs Son may need the run after a break.
Yul Finegold has been in form here recently, with Ralphy Lad – another CD winner – well behind on the last day.
Swift Cedar wins for apprentice jockeys, including a girl claimer, and gets a stone from Yul Finegold. Not well drawn but likes to come with a rattle late on.
The stable has had three winners from its last five starters, and he looks a decent win and place bet at a tempting 7.2 on BETDAQ, and a place nap among my sporting Christmas multiples.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9)
BET 2.5pts win and place on each LUIS VAZ DE TORRES and ORIENTAL RELATION (12.40 Wolverhampton)
BET 6pts win TWIN APPEAL and 4pts win IAN’S MEMORY (1.30 Southwell)
BET 5pts win and place (nap) SWIFT CEDAR (2.30 Southwell)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 8 x 1pt win doubles and 4 x 1pt win trebles the five above.
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
