NFL WEEK 16: A Christmas Eve showdown of division rivals in Oakland kicks off the action in Week 16, and while the game doesn’t have any playoff implications, there is sure to be some entertainment value in watching Philip Rivers and Derek Carr dissect two beatable secondaries. The Raiders are a 5.5-point favorite at BETDAQ and the 46.5-point total looks a little low to me, though an ominous weather forecast makes it a bit difficult to pull the trigger on an Over bet.
This week is surprisingly short on matchups that are ultra-meaningful for both teams involved, the exceptions being Saturday night’s Redskins/Eagles game that could decide the NFC East and Monday night’s Bengals/Broncos contest that will be instrumental in determining which one of those teams is able to earn a first-round postseason bye. Don’t get me wrong, there are other important games– the Chiefs, Jets, and Steelers are locked in a 3-way tie in the AFC Wild Card race so they’re all in must-win situations, the Packers and Cardinals will jockey for playoff position in the desert, and Sunday night’s Giants/Vikings game could be a big one if the G-Men are given some life with a Philadelphia win on Saturday night– but overall, there aren’t as many “do or die”, playoff-like games as we normally see in Week 16.
That shouldn’t stop us from making a little money, though, and we’ve managed to do pretty well in that regard over the last couple of weeks, responding to our disastrous November with a 6-1-1 run that has put us back over .500 for the season. Let’s hope we can keep it rolling with these four selections:
San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions (Det -10, 43)
Two bad teams, too many points. Is that what you’re thinking? It’s certainly understandable; after all, it’s rare to see a 5-9 team favored by such a large margin. If you’ve been paying attention, though, you know that Detroit hasn’t played like a 5-9 team in recent weeks, while the lowly Niners increasingly have the look of a team that will see top-to-bottom changes for the second consecutive offseason. With all due respect to Blaine Gabbert and Shaun Draughn (now Kendall Gaskins??), the San Francisco offense is now being led by backups and is essentially non-competitive, producing more than 17 points just once in the team’s last 8 games. The defense isn’t much better, as the Niners are one of only three teams leaguewide to allow more than 125 rushing yards and 260 pass yards per game. In other words, there just aren’t many bright spots in San Francisco right now, and I see absolutely no reason to think that Jim Tomsula’s bunch will break out with an inspired effort on the road. The Lions have won four of their last six and have started to show signs of explosiveness on offense again, scoring 68 combined points in their past two home games and hanging 35 on the Saints in an 8-point win last Monday night. And considering five of San Francisco’s last six losses have come by double-digits, a Detroit cover here is a predictable outcome in a lot of ways. Recommendation: Detroit -10 at 1.94
Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills (Buf -6, 42.5)
The Bills have officially been eliminated from playoff contention, extending their postseason drought to 16 years (the longest in the league), but they haven’t shown any signs of quitting on first-year coach Rex Ryan and they have a golden opportunity to take out some frustration this week as the hapless Dallas Cowboys come to town. The Cowboys are just about as non-threatening as a team can be: they’ve lost 10 of their last 12 games; they have a putrid offense that ranks 27th in total yards per game and 30th in points scored; and they’ll be starting noodle-armed Kellen Moore at quarterback, a career backup who threw three interceptions in relief of Matt Cassel last week but has still been tapped to start the first game of his 4-year NFL career. If you think that sounds like an impending disaster for America’s Team, you’re not alone. Short of the Bills laying down here and not bringing maximum effort, I’m having trouble envisioning a scenario where Dallas comes into Buffalo and pulls out a win. I guess an argument could be made that the Dallas defense, a unit that has performed admirably this season and is currently ranked 10th in yards allowed, will keep this one close, but the Cowboys aren’t particularly good against the run, surrendering 110.1 rush yards per game (18th in NFL), and the Bills lead the league in rushing (148.8 ypg), so this isn’t a great matchup for the Dallas D. Look for Buffalo to pick up a feel-good win in front of the home fans. Recommendation: Buffalo -6 at 1.92
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (Sea -13.5, 40.5)
The Seahawks seem to be coming around at just the right time, winning five straight games by 9 points or more and averaging 33.8 points per game in their last six contests. They’re as hot as any team in the league outside of Carolina, and nobody is going to want to face them in the playoffs. All that being said, I believe there are some very compelling reasons to like St. Louis as a whopping 13.5-point ‘dog this week. While the Seattle offense seems to have successfully reinvented itself on the fly, the fact remains that the ‘Hawks are down to their third-string tailback– Christine Michael– and it’s unclear whether Russell Wilson and a thin receiving corps can carry the offense when opposing defenses aren’t as threatened by the usually-formidable Seattle rushing attack. Plus, this game is totally meaningless for the Seahawks– they’re locked into the 5-seed in the NFC playoffs, and nothing that happens over these next two weeks is going to change that. Pete Carroll hasn’t said that he plans on resting any players, but if Russell Wilson should, say, tweak his ankle in the first half on Sunday, would the team want him to go out there and tough it out as he normally would, or will they sit him down and preserve him for the playoffs? The same could be asked of any Seattle starter… point is, these games aren’t played in a vacuum, and you can rest assured that Carroll has his eye on the big picture. The Rams have won their last two games so we know they’re still fighting hard, and their best offensive player– rookie running back Todd Gurley– wasn’t in the lineup when these teams clashed back in Week 1, a 34-31 St. Louis victory. These are division rivals so there’s some natural animosity involved, and each team knows exactly what the other wants to do. I expect a competitive, low-scoring game here, the type of game where 13.5 points feels like stealing. Recommendation: St. Louis +13.5 at 1.89
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (Ari -4.5)
With apologies to Carolina and New England, a very strong case could be made for the Arizona Cardinals as the NFL’s best team right now. The Cards lead the league in total offense, points scored, and point differential (+176), and they rank 7th in total defense and 6th in points allowed. There is just no weakness to be found, though the season-ending injury suffered by safety Tyrann Matheiu last week has understandably dampened the mood a bit. Even without Mathieu, though, the Cards boast one of the NFC’s better defenses, and they should be able to effectively smother a Green Bay offense that is now just living on reputation in the minds of many bettors. Gone are the days when Aaron Rodgers was lighting up scoreboards and putting on his trademark belt– they may return someday (Jordy Nelson, where are you?), but this season’s team is below average offensively thanks to an inconsistent o-line and a group of receivers that just can’t seem to get open. The results speak for themselves: 21st in total offense, 26th in passing offense (!), and just 6.8 yards per pass attempt, a number that’s worse than all but four teams leaguewide. The defense has been better than many expected, but it’s still a limited unit that ranks 17th in total yards allowed and has been torched by several quarterbacks with far less of a pedigree than Carson Palmer, who is probably playing the best football of his career at age 35. Palmer is surrounded by an enviable cadre of weapons and he puts on a show on a weekly basis, as the Cards have been held below 23 points just twice this season. The Pack have strung together a few wins and I’ve heard some speculate that they might be “back” just in time for the playoffs, but I beg to differ. I believe what we have here is a deeply flawed, formerly great team that’s going on the road to face a true contender, and I think the difference will be apparent to all who tune in to the game on Sunday. Recommendation: Arizona -4.5 at 1.91
2015 Record- 30-29-1
