NFL PLAYOFFS: The last couple weeks of the regular season were rather tame, as there seemed to be fewer “do-or-die” playoff-elimination games than we see most years thanks to the playoff picture mostly clearing itself up after Week 15. But fear not, NFL fans: with all four road teams listed as favorites at the time of this writing (Green Bay/Washington has toggled back and forth, but the Packers are currently a 1-point favorite at BETDAQ), I have a sneaking suspicion that this Wild Card Weekend will deliver on the excitement, drama, and unpredictability.
Well, let’s hope that’s half right– we don’t want it to go too heavy on the “unpredictability”; after all, we’re trying to profit off of our ability to successfully predict the outcome of these games. We’ve done pretty well in that department over the past few weeks, finishing the regular season on a 12-3-1 run that put us back in the black after a disheartening midseason cold spell, but the playoffs are a different animal and there’s always a bit of a “clean slate” feel to Wild Card Weekend. Let’s hope these four selections help us ring in the postseason with fistfuls of cash:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (KC -3.5, 40)
Well, both of these teams are right back where they started– Houston’s Reliant Stadium, where the Chiefs pushed around the Texans in the opening game of the season, leading 27-9 after three quarters and going on to win 27-20. Strange things happened after that game: Kansas City promptly lost five straight but followed that up with 10 consecutive victories despite losing offensive focal point Jamaal Charles to injury, while Houston benched starting quarterback Brian Hoyer and played mediocre football for the next several weeks before coming together over the second half of the season behind the reinstated (and seemingly improved) Hoyer. One thing we know for sure is that we’re going to see plenty of defense in this game, as the Texans led the NFL in points allowed over the last 8 games of the season (114) and the Chiefs were second (115). Houston will need to stop the run to have a chance here– the Chiefs have run the ball surprisingly well since losing Charles, which has opened things up for Alex Smith and the passing attack and enabled the team to score 29 points or more in six of its last nine games. We’ve seen this Kansas City offense get bogged down before, though, and if the Texans can limit the production of KC backs Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware it’s going to be up to Alex Smith, the consummate Checkdown Charlie, to beat this Houston defense with his arm. In such a scenario– Smith, on the road, forced to carry the offense with J.J. Watt breathing down his neck– I like the home team’s chances. The Texans are unspectacular but steady on offense, and Hoyer can be trusted to make good decisions against a ferocious Kansas City pass rush that will be bolstered by the return of All-Pro linebacker Justin Houston, who has missed the past five games with a knee injury. Complicating matters for the Texans is the fact that they’ll be without starting left tackle Duane Brown, but Brown’s replacement, Chris Clark, is an experienced veteran and the Texans have the best offensive player on either team in wideout DeAndre Hopkins, so their offense is certainly capable of producing some big plays in what should be a tight, low-scoring game. It may not seem wise to bet against a team that hasn’t lost since October (doesn’t sound good when you say it out loud, does it?), but I like the home ‘dog here. Recommendation: Houston +3.5 at 1.84
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (Pit -3, 45.5)
We’ve been here before, haven’t we, Cincinnati? It was an impressive regular season, sure, but here we are in mid-January, when things really begin to matter, and the Bengals are sputtering, losing two of their last four games as quarterback A.J. McCarron has filled in for an injured Andy Dalton. One of those losses came to these very same Steelers just four weeks ago, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing for 282 yards in a 33-20 Pittsburgh victory. Roethlisberger has been as good as any quarterback in the NFL this season, completing 68% of his passes and leading the league with 328 pass yards per game, and he’s been great in the postseason throughout his career, so the Cincinnati defense is really going to have its hands full in this one. The Steelers rank 3rd in total offense and they’ve scored 28 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games, the lone exception being a 20-17 loss to Baltimore two weeks ago. They may be forced to go with Fitzgerald Toussaint or Jordan Todman at running back, as DeAngelo Williams hasn’t practiced all week after spraining his ankle last Sunday, but this is a pass-first unit anyway and the receiving corps is fully healthy, so the team will live and die on the right arm of Big Ben. And considering Roethlisberger’s counterpart, A.J. McCarron, will be making the first postseason start of his career, it’s definitely Advantage: Pittsburgh on the offensive side of the ball. McCarron had a rough outing against these Steelers last month, throwing two interceptions and finishing with a QBR of just 36.4, and he’s mostly been in “caretaker mode” since taking over for Dalton four games ago. It seems highly unlikely that McCarron would outplay Roethlisberger and lead his team to victory in a shootout-type situation, so lots of stress is going to be put on a Cincinnati defense that surrendered 33 points to this very same offense a few weeks back. In other words, the Bengals are staring straight down the barrel at their fifth consecutive first-round playoff exit, a feat of futility that has never before been accomplished in NFL history. They’ll be plenty motivated as a home ‘dog against the hated Steelers, but motivation is a poor substitute for excellence and I think the Bengals may simply be outmanned here, specifically at the game’s most important position– quarterback. Recommendation: Pittsburgh -3 at 1.97
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (Sea -5, 39.5)
I want to like Minnesota here, I really do. The Vikings are an ascending team that’s good on both sides of the ball, but especially on defense, where head coach Mike Zimmer has lived up to his reputation in quickly building a unit that is among the league’s best. On offense they have Adrian Peterson, the NFL’s leading rusher and a future Hall of Famer, and a young quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater who just never seems to rattle. They’re playing at home and facing a team that just embarrassed them a few weeks ago, giving them all the motivation in the world, and the subzero temperatures that are forecasted should inject some unpredictability into the proceedings, making a 5-point home underdog all the more appealing. So like I said, I really, really want to like Minnesota here. Unfortunately, I’m also a realist who values his money. The Seahawks have been playing championship-level football for the past two months (and unlike Minnesota, they know all about “championship-level”), winning six of their last seven games and doing it in dominant fashion, with each win coming by 9 points or more. One of those wins, of course, was a 38-7 humiliation of these Vikings, and while different circumstances could produce a very different result this time around, it’s difficult to ignore the fact that just five weeks ago the Seahawks went into Minnesota and rolled up 443 total yards while holding the Vikings to a paltry 125 (that’s right– 125 TOTAL YARDS). Russell Wilson is playing as well as any quarterback in the league right now, and the ‘Hawks may have Marshawn Lynch back in the lineup for the first time in seven games. And then there’s the defense, a unit that led the NFL in points allowed for the fourth consecutive year and has only gotten stronger as the season has progressed. You have to squint awful hard to see the Vikings as anything but a clear underdog here, and a Minnesota bet, though tempting, feels like a “wind in your face” type of proposition. No thanks. Recommendation: Seattle -5 at 1.97
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins (GB -1, 45.5)
This is a tough one for those who haven’t accepted the fact that Green Bay just isn’t a very good team. I mean, Aaron Rodgers vs. Kirk Cousins, Mike McCarthy vs. The Other Gruden, Competence & Success vs. Incompetence & Dysfunction… and it’s in the playoffs, no less!! That type of thinking is why the Redskins aren’t a 3-4 point favorite here, as they’ve clearly been the superior team over the second half of the season. The Packers are now 4-6 in their last ten contents, their once-formidable offense ranking 23rd in the NFL and producing just 21 combined points in the team’s last two games, both losses. The exasperation on Aaron Rodgers’ face is evident nearly every time he takes the field now, as his receivers can’t seem to get open and the running game has been maddeningly inconsistent. While the Redskins have some issues defensively, they’ve been steadily improving on that side of the ball in recent weeks, limiting six consecutive opponents to 25 points or fewer. Not coincidentally, they won five of those six games, meaning they head into this playoff home game with a full head of steam and plenty of confidence. That type of thing– venue, comfort, confidence– could be especially important for quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has been playing great football lately but has never appeared in a playoff game before. Cousins has had turnover problems in the past and he could sink the whole season with a couple of bad decisions, he’s been playing at a Pro Bowl level in recent weeks and the Green Bay defense is certainly beatable, so I’d be a little nervous about betting against him. What it comes down to, for me, is this: the Skins are playing their best football of the season, winning five of six to capture the division and scoring 107 combined points in their last three games, while the Packers have shown no signs of life on either side of the ball lately and couldn’t pull out a home win last week with the division on the line. Back the better team. Recommendation: Washington ML at 1.96
YTD Record– 36-31-1
