NFL PLAYOFFS: For NFL fans, it doesn’t get any better than Divisional Round weekend. No more byes, no more excuses, no more guessing: Is Kansas City for real? Is New England a paper tiger at this point? Does Peyton Manning have any greatness left in his aging, battered body? Can Carolina validate its regular-season success against a team that’s long been considered the bully on the block? Was last week the spark that lights the fire in Green Bay, or just an illusion that will cost misguided bettors who are now jumping at the opportunity to back Aaron Rodgers as an underdog? The answers await…
Here’s a quick look at all four games:
*ATS= against the spread (handicap)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Saturday 21:35 GMT
BETDAQ Line: New England -5 (42)
Significant Injuries
Kansas City: LB Justin Houston (questionable– knee), WR Jeremy Maclin (questionable– ankle), C Mitch Morse (questionable– concussion), G Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (questionable– concussion)
New England: S Nate Ebner (questionable– arm), WR Julian Edelman (questionable– foot), DE Chandler Jones (questionable– disciplinary)
Recent Trends
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game
Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games
Patriots are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Patriots are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams
Prediction
The Chiefs are the hottest team in the league right now– they’ve won 11 straight games, with nine of those wins coming by 7 points or more. That being said, their best defensive player (Justin Houston) is hobbled, their only real game-breaker on offense (Jeremy Maclin) is questionable to play after spraining his ankle last week, and they’re facing a Patriots team that’s had a week to rest and could be getting top wideout Julian Edelman back for the first time in over a month. We’ve seen it before, haven’t we?? Belichick, Brady, Foxborough, January… you know how this story ends. If you’re uncomfortable with the 5-point number, back ’em on the moneyline. Recommended Bets: New England -5 at 2.0, New England ML at 1.47
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS Sunday 01:15 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Arizona -7 (50)
Significant Injuries
Green Bay: CB Sam Shields (questionable– concussion), OT David Bakhtiari (questionabke– ankle), LB Jayrone Elliott (questionable– quadricep), CB Quinten Rollins (questionable– quadricep), WR Davante Adams (doubtful– knee)
Arizona: LB Markus Golden (questionable– knee), RB Andre Ellington (questionable– toe), DT Josh Mauro (questionable– calf)
Recent Trends
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 postseason road games
Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games
Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 postseason home games
Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 4-1 in Green Bay’s last 5 postseason road games
The OVER is 4-0 in Arizona’s last 4 postseason home games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Arizona’s last 6 games overall
Prediction
Look, we saw this game two weeks ago. And while it probably won’t be 38-8 again, it’s difficult to imagine Green Bay pulling off the upset here. The Cards are elite on both sides of the ball, ranking 1st in the league in total offense and 5th in total defense, and they’re surely eager to wash out the bad taste that was left by their Week 17 blowout loss to Seattle. The Packers may be led by a future Hall of Fame quarterback, but they’ve been frighteningly ordinary on offense and they’ve lost yet another weapon on that side of the ball, as starting receiver Davante Adams is likely to miss this week’s game with a knee injury. The Green Bay defense has played well in recent weeks (well, with the exception of the meltdown against… these very same Cardinals. oof.) and it wouldn’t surprise me if they put up a good fight for a couple of quarters, but it won’t be enough. Not only is Arizona the superior team here, but they’re the healthier team, coming off a bye and playing at home. This one won’t be particularly close. Recommended Bets: Arizona -7 at 1.92, U50 at 1.91
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS Sunday 18:05 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Carolina -2 (44)
Significant Injuries
Seattle: RB Marshawn Lynch (questionable– hernia), TE Luke Willson (questionable– concussion), FB Will Tukuafu (questionable– hamstring)
Carolina: LB A.J. Klein (questionable– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall
Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Seattle’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 5-0 in Seattle’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in Carolina’s last 5 home games
Prediction
Every year it seems we have a team that rolls through the regular season, earning a first-round bye and a home playoff game, only to fall flat when the playoffs actually arrive. Well folks, there simply couldn’t be a better candidate for such a letdown than the 2015 Carolina Panthers. Despite a glittering 15-1 record, there are some definite warning signs: the defense, the strength of the team, has slipped a bit over the past month, surrendering 38 points to New Orleans, 35 to the New York Giants, and 20 in a Week 16 loss to the lowly Falcons. The offense has been the Cam Newton Show and Newton is having the best year of his career, but the Panthers still rank a mediocre 24th in pass yards per game, so this is still a one-dimensional offense that can be smothered if a defense is good enough to stop the rushing attack. And wouldn’t you know it, Seattle ranks 1st in the league in rushing defense, surrendering a paltry 81.5 yards per game on the ground. The ‘Hawks used up one of their nine lives in Minnesota last week when Blair Walsh missed a chip-shot field goal, so they enter this week’s game with a “house money” vibe and all the swagger that comes with being a two-time defending conference champ. This game should be an absolute bloodletting, and I’ll go with the more experienced, battle-hardened team. Recommended Bets: Seattle +2 at 1.96, Seattle ML at 2.08
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ DENVER BRONCOS Sunday 21:40 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Denver -7 (40)
Significant Injuries
Pittsburgh: QB Ben Roethlisberger (questionable– shoulder), DE Cameron Heyward (questionable– back), CB Doran Grant (questionable– groin), RB DeAngelo Williams (doubtful– foot), WR Antonio Brown (doubtful– concussion)
Denver: S Omar Bolden (questionable– groin)
Recent Trends
Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Round playoff games
Steelers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games
Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 postseason road games
Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games
The UNDER is 8-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 road games
The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Denver’s last 9 home games
The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams
Prediction
EDIT: Antonio Brown has been ruled OUT since the time of this writing
Are you going to be okay, Antonio Brown? Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target (and possibly the NFL’s best receiver) sustained an apparent concussion last week (I say “apparent” because some players– most notably Cincinnati’s Pacman Jones– have accused Brown of faking) and has been listed as “doubtful” for the past few days, but some think the “doubtful” designation is just Pittsburgh being coy. So… will Brown play on Sunday? If so, and if Roethlisberger is healthy enough to approximate his usual performance (another huge assumption, based on the iffy status of Big Ben’s throwing shoulder), then I think the Steelers have an excellent chance to pull off the upset here. The Broncos have been fading over the past month and they’ve now turned back to Peyton Manning in desperation. Though I think that was the right move based on how bad the offense was under Brock Osweiler, Manning has been ineffective when he’s been out there this season, to the point where it’s almost sad to watch him sometimes. Denver does have a great defense, but nobody– and I mean nobody– has been able to stop the Roethlisberger-to-Brown connection this season, as Big Ben led the league in pass yards per game and Brown led the AFC in both yards and receptions. If Brown can’t go, however, or if Roethlisberger is badly hampered by his shoulder, then it’s going to be really, really tough for Pittsburgh to hang in there. They aren’t nearly as good as Denver defensively, and there’s always the chance of a true throwback performance from Manning, though I’m not expecting that. This one’s a little difficult to predict with all the injury uncertainty, but as of now I’m proceeding as if the Steelers will be themselves. Recommended Bets: Pittsburgh +7 at 1.92 EDIT: BROWN NOT PLAYING, SO… Denver -7 at 1.89
