BETDAQ EXCHANGE VIEW: In the second of our interviews with Professional Traders using BETDAQ, Stephen Maher chats to Declan Meagher about his Trading strategy.
Declan’s main sport for trading is horse racing, and he provides an interesting insight into the mentality and work it requires to be successful.
Stephen Maher: So for anyone that doesn’t know you, can you tell us a bit about yourself?
Declan Meagher I used to work with racehorses for Dermot Weld, and also spent some time in Moyglare Stud. While I enjoyed a bet growing up, I would never have won money. It was only when Betting Exchanges came about that I started taking it seriously, and I’ve been a professional gambler now for over 13 years, and launched my very successful Premium Advisory Service just over two years ago.
SM: I see from Learn Bet Win that you’re into sectional times – not many punters fully understand what they offer yet though. What advantage does sectional times give to your betting approach and when do you think sectional times will become more mainstream in British & Irish racing?
DM: Sectionals provide extra information about a race, and while I’ve heard some people claim you can have too much info, I disagree. If after properly analysing it, you find the information has no value, you can disregard it. Sectionals have plenty of value, and can come to conclusions about the merit of a performance with a degree of certainty, that the naked eye can only guess at.
SM: What advice would you give to a newcomer looking to get into betting, and what area do you think is best to focus on? Discipline, staking, etc?
DM: Staking is important. Incorrect staking or money management would be the reason many talented race readers, form analysts, or even poker players don’t make it pay, but that’s all irrelevant if you don’t have an edge to begin with. A proper staking plan will help you decide the amount you should stake, but that amount should always be zero, unless you have an edge to begin with. So for beginners the first thing they need to do is find an angle that the market hasn’t accounted for. I go into this in more detail in an article I wrote entitled Finding and Edge in Sports Betting.
SM: Most people bet for fun, we both know that, but say they wanted to really put the hard work in and find an edge – how long, in your opinion, would that take? And on average how many hours a day do you spend working? I probably spend more hours on cricket than most people work in a normal job. Maybe I’m being harsh but I don’t think the general public (or betting public) appreciate how hard a professional gambler works, would you agree with that?
DM: I’m sure most people could at least break even, or make a small profit, by just being disciplined and putting in the hours studying, but to really make it pay it would take a lot of hard work. A logical mind and the right temperament would be important, as to beat the market, following the crowd won’t cut it, you have to be able to think for yourself, and come to your own conclusions. Temperament is important, as you need to be able to handle the variance you will inevitably experience in results. I don’t really pay attention to how long I’m working as I love what I do, but my girlfriend tells me I’m always working, so I must rack up a fair quota of hours.
SM: During the course of these interviews I’ve been asking people what is their biggest loss – so what is your biggest loss, and how do you cope with losing mentally?
DM: I have lost about £20,000 on one horse, but I have had losing runs of a good bit more than that. I try not to react to short term fluctuations, and while it’s important to keep track of your results so you know where you might be going wrong, I don’t think you should change what has worked long term without a very good reason. A statistical look at a poor run might suggest such a run could only happen 5% of the time by chance, but if I can’t find any logical reason for it, I’ll probably conclude it’s highly unlikely to mean anything. I think the average punter massively overreacts to the latest info.
SM: What’s the one thing that you think could be done to make British and Irish racing better for the punter?
DM: I think the people in charge need to stop treating punters like an irritant, and give them the respect they deserve. Without them racing would be a tiny sport, that would only be of interest to a rich minority. Punters help fund racing, as do owners, but at least owners are treated quite well. Trainers are the group who make money from the sport, yet the BHA and HRI seem hell bent on not annoying them, and pandering to their demands. For a start every horse should be weighted as they enter the stable yard before a race, and wind ops should be declared. Neither would be in any way expensive, and contrary to what some trainers might think, punters are not stupid, and are very capable of using the extra information to improve their decisions.
SM: What do you think of the new BETDAQ website, and what features do you think could be added to make it better, a BETDAQ SP, adding a favourites button maybe?
DM: I like the BETDAQ website. It’s visually very nice, and easy to get around, which is important. A BETDAQ SP would be useful as I think having it would help encourage more casual punters, who may not be able to monitor a price to see if they got matched. At least with a BETDAQ SP they can do their day’s work, safe in the knowledge that even if they didn’t quite get the price they wanted, they will have got matched, so won’t have to deal with the dreaded feeling of seeing your horse won, but you weren’t on.
SM: What do you think about commission in general on BETDAQ?
DM: Most of the big layers on Betfair are paying a premium charge of between 20 and 60%, so if they laid the same book on BETDAQ, they would be an awful lot better off.
SM: If you did run BETDAQ then, what is the main thing that you would do to create more competition to Betfair?
DM: The commission rates with no premium charges should be attractive to the people who lay the field on Betfair, so it is really all about enticing them to try BETDAQ out. Most normal punters place back bets, and I firmly believe getting them is the easy part once you have the liquidity. Obviously it is easy get a bet on BETDAQ near the off, but it is earlier in the morning things need to improve.
SM: What’s the one big change you expect to happen, if anything, to the betting world (or horse racing betting) in the next 2 to 3 years?
DM: I’d love to see sectional times come in, with furlong by furlong splits. You could tell so much more about a race, but I think it will take longer than 2 or 3 years.
Thanks for doing this Declan and best of luck.
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