PGA TOUR: The West Coast Swing rolls on this week with the Farmers Insurance Open, and this marks the 49th consecutive year that prestigious Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California will play host to this event, which was formerly known as the Buick Invitational and San Diego Open. Both the North and South Courses will be used on Thursday and Friday, with all the action shifting to the more difficult South Course over the weekend.
The South Course is best known for hosting the 2008 U.S. Open, where a hobbled Tiger Woods triumphed over Rocco Mediate in a dramatic playoff. It’s one of the longest tracks on Tour, measuring at 7,698 yards from the tips, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that length off the tee is a trait that most past champions of this event happen to share. Last year each of the top six finishers ranked in the top-10 in driving distance for the week, with eventual winner Jason Day leading the field. Day is back to defend his title and he heads the market at BETDAQ, but his odds (7.2) look awfully short for a guy who hasn’t played a whole lot of competitive golf over the past couple of months. It’s hard to argue with his record at Torrey Pines, though, and he was inarguably the hottest player in the world over the second half of last season. My money will be elsewhere this week, but if you’re going to back the favorite you certainly don’t have to defend your logic.
Torrey Pines has always been a “horses for courses” type of place, so I recommend prioritizing “course form” over “recent form” this week. Six of the past eight winners of this event had recorded at least one top-10 finish here prior to winning. With that in mind, here are a few suggestions:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Rickie Fowler (14.0)- Nobody is playing better golf than Rickie Fowler at the moment, as the world’s 4th-ranked player followed up his top-5 finish in Kapalua with a victory at last week’s HSBC Champions in Hong Kong. Now he returns to home soil and a place that has always treated him kindly– Torrey Pines. In his brief career Fowler has already racked up four top-20 finishes and two top-10s at this event, and he’s never been hotter than he is right now. Will he be travel-weary? The rest of the field had better hope so.
Marc Leishman (54.0)- Many will be scared off by Leishman’s missed cut last week, but his game isn’t too far off– he won the European Tour’s Nedbank Challenge back in December and played well in the Sony a couple of weeks ago, shooting 68 or better in all four rounds and finishing 28th. More importantly, he always seems to play well at the Farmers, finishing runner-up in both 2010 and 2014 and placing 27th or better in four of his past six appearances. A long-ball hitter who feels very comfortable at Torrey Pines, Leishman is a great value at better than 50/1.
Smylie Kaufman (138.0)- Kaufman is off to a tremendous start to his PGA Tour career, making all seven of his cuts this season (the “wraparound” season) and winning the Shriners Hospitals Open back in October. He finished 14th in last week’s CareerBuilder Challenge, closing with back-to-back 67s, so we know he’s in good form at the moment, and he perfectly fits the profile of someone who should succeed at Torrey Pines– he’s really long off the tee and is a solid ball-striker, ranking 32nd on Tour in Strokes Gained tee-to-green and 9th in Par-5 scoring. To shoot a good number on the South Course you’ve got to attack those Par-5s, and Kaufman can do it. A worthy investment at the current price.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Brandt Snedeker (1.91) vs. Dustin Johnson (1.91)
Because of Johnson’s prodigious length and soft hands he seems like a natural fit for Torrey Pines, but he’s never fared particularly well in this tournament, finishing in the top-15 just once in seven career appearances. Snedeker, on the other hand, is a past champion here (’12) and has finished in the top-3 three other times. Plus, Snedeker is just about as hot as anybody right now, finishing third in Kapalua and losing the Sony Open in a playoff. Recommendation: Snedeker at 1.91
Hideki Matsuyama (1.91) vs. Bill Haas (1.91)
Matsuyama hasn’t played any competitive golf since his middling performance in December’s Hero World Challenge, so we don’t really know what to expect from the young Japanese star. He missed the cut last year in his second career appearance at this event, so there’s nothing about his past record at Torrey Pines that would excite you. Haas, meanwhile, has made 10 cuts in 11 career starts at the Farmers, with seven top-25s and three top-10s. He’s playing well at the moment, too, finishing 9th in last week’s CareerBuilder Challenge. Recommendation: Haas at 1.91
