SUPER BOWL 50: Northern California will be the center of the sporting entertainment universe on Sunday night, as Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos take on Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50. The game has just about everything you could want: the NFL’s best defense facing the presumptive MVP; a future Hall of Fame quarterback playing for the sport’s biggest prize in what may be the final game of his career; and then there’s the million-dollar advertisements, overblown halftime show, celebrity navel-gazing, and so on. With over 100 different markets being offered at BETDAQ there’s ample opportunity to make a bundle of cash, too, and doing so would make watching Chris Martin moan his way through a greatest hits montage so much more bearable, wouldn’t it? With that in mind, here’s a closer look at Super Bowl 50:
CAROLINA PANTHERS (17-1) vs. DENVER BRONCOS (14-4)
BETDAQ Line: Carolina -5.5 (44)
Recent Trends
*ATS= against the spread (handicap)
Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
Panthers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games on natural grass
Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog
Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
Broncos are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games
The OVER is 4-0 in Carolina’s last 4 playoff games
The OVER is 4-1 in Carolina’s last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 5-1 in Denver’s last 6 playoff games
The UNDER is 5-2 in Denver’s last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 5-2 in Denver’s last 7 games overall
Matchups
Carolina offense vs. Denver defense- This is where the game will be decided. The Panthers have been running roughshod over the opposition for the past few weeks, topping 30 points in six of their last seven games despite facing some of the NFC’s best defenses. They’re a run-heavy team, ranking second in the league in rushing offense and 24th in passing, but labeling them as one-dimensional would be a mistake due to the multiplicity of looks they present in the run game. They use the read-option with more frequency and effectiveness than any team in the NFL but they can pound it between the tackles as well, and the physical nature of their offensive line is perhaps the most underrated aspect of the team.
The straw that stirs the drink, of course, is quarterback Cam Newton, a dual-threat dynamo who has been an absolute nightmare for opposing defenses this season. He runs with rare speed and power, but it’s his improvement as a passer that has caught many of his critics off-guard and propelled him into the MVP conversation. Newton and the Panthers haven’t seen a defense like they’re going to see on Sunday, though. The Broncos led the NFL in total yards allowed, pass yards allowed, and sacks this season, and they ranked third in both points allowed and rushing D. In other words, they simply do not have a weakness, and it will be fascinating to see whether they can smother the vaunted Carolina rushing attack and force Newton to beat them with his arm. That’ll be where the rubber meets the road here– if the Panthers have their usual success on the ground, they’ll likely win this game going away. If Newton is forced to air it out more than usual, though, it’s advantage Broncos, because the elite Denver secondary vs. the pedestrian Carolina receiving corps is perhaps the game’s biggest mismatch.
Denver offense vs. Carolina defense- It hasn’t been easy for the Denver offense this season, as they’ve reached the 30-point mark just once in their past 16 games and have at times looked as broken-down as their 39-year old quarterback. Manning has had an extra week to rest, though, and gametime temperatures will be about 30 degrees warmer than they were for his last three games, which were all in chilly Denver. Manning has never been known as a good cold-weather player– indeed, it’s been cited as the primary culprit behind many of his postseason failures– so it will be interesting to see whether warmer temps and a few extra days off will give him a little more hop in his step and zip on his passes. The Broncos had better hope so; if not, they could be in for a long, long night against the excellent Carolina defense.
Led by tackling machine Luke Kuechly, the Panthers ranked in the top-10 in the league in every major statistical category this season and they totally shut down the high-powered Arizona offense in the NFC Championship game, forcing seven turnovers and turning a highly-anticipated showdown into a one-sided laugher. That’s not to say they’ve been bulletproof, however– the secondary was exposed a bit in late-season games against New Orleans, Atlanta, and the New York Giants, so if Manning can sip from the fountain of youth one more time (a big “if”, mind you) the Broncos might be able to do some damage. A more likely outcome involves the Denver offense being forced to grind it out with their thoroughly average running game and dink-and-dunk passing attack, much like they have for most of the season. On the positive side, the Broncos have done a good job protecting the ball since Manning’s Week 17 return to the lineup, winning the turnover battle in both of their playoff victories. Doing so again might be necessary if they hope to pull off the upset here.
Prediction
The Panthers have been the better team this season by almost any measure, but they’ll be facing the stingiest defense they’ve seen all year and one of the best quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen. Manning’s body may be betraying him now, but he’s still in total command of the offense and he’s sure to produce a blood-and-guts effort in what could be the final game of his illustrious career. The Denver defense, meanwhile, is indisputably the NFL’s best.
There are those who think that this game will play out much like the Broncos’ Super Bowl loss two years ago, when they faced a Seattle team that was very similar stylistically to these Panthers and were steamrolled 43-8. While I can certainly see the parallels, I will be stunned– absolutely stunned– if Carolina is able to roll over this Denver D like Seattle did back then. The Broncos have improved significantly on defense over the past two years, and Wade Phillips has had two weeks to devise a gameplan to slow down a Carolina offense that is limited in the passing game. I’m expecting a rather ugly, low-scoring game here, and I think it will come down to the 4th quarter. Manning will have a chance at the storybook ending, but I’m not sure he’s going to be able to walk through that door. Pick: Carolina 20, Denver 17
Recommended Bets
Denver +5.5 at 1.89, UNDER 44 at 1.94, UNDER 20.5 1st downs for Carolina at 1.88, OVER 39.5 rushing yds for Cam Newton at 1.68, UNDER 5.5 receptions for Greg Olsen at 1.83, YES both teams make a FG of over 32 yds at 2.04, UNDER 5 total TDs at 1.98, OVER 2.5 players to have a passing attempt at 2.72
