PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM: The crown jewel event of the PGA Tour’s West Coast Swing has arrived, as celebrities, luminaries, and the Tour’s best descend upon California’s Monterey Peninsula for a tournament that’s unique in every way. This isn’t a “pro-am” in name only– the players are paired with their amateur partners for the first three rounds, giving the proceedings a relaxed, friendly vibe that’s a bit of a departure from the buttoned-up, grind-it-out nature of typical Tour golf.
The star(s) of the show, of course, are the golf courses, three of the most hallowed and picturesque layouts in the game. Pebble Beach is the most prominent and it’s where the cut-makers will gather on Sunday, but Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club are terrific courses in their own right and each presents its own unique challenges. Monterey Peninsula is probably the quirkiest of the bunch; it’s a par-71 that measures just 6,873 yards and features five par-3s. Spyglass Hill is a bit more difficult but is also on the short side, measuring only 6,960 yards, while Pebble can be a lion or a lamb depending on the weather (early forecasts pointing towards “lamb” this week).
Jordan Spieth (6.2) heads the market at BETDAQ and he’s certainly one of the favorites anytime he tees it up, but there’s plenty of A-list talent on hand and nobody else is saddled with such depressingly short odds. Defending champion Brandt Snedeker (16.5) is more attractively priced and he’s been red-hot lately, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he’s been one of the most heavily-traded players on the exchange over the last 24 hours. Snedeker isn’t the only one who’s been red-hot– after hitting on Matsuyama at 23.0 in last week’s Phoenix Open, we’ve now tipped four top-3 finishers in four events this season and have rung up a 6-2 record in the tournament match bets. Let’s hope we can keep it rolling with the following selections…
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Dustin Johnson (11.5)- Johnson was last seen shooting 80 in the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago, but I’d hold off on the panic button– he still finished 18th, after all, and he picked up a top-10 in his only other start this year (Kapalua). Moreover, he has an immaculate record in this tournament, winning twice and finishing in the top-5 three other times, so there’s no question that the format and the venue suit him perfectly. After a week off and the aforementioned 80, I have a feeling we’ll see Johnson at his aggressive best this week. Of all the short-odds guys on the board, I think he’s the safest bet to be around the lead come Sunday afternoon.
Shane Lowry (52.0)- Do these odds not seem a little fat to anyone else?? I was thinking Lowry would be in the 38.0-40.0 range this week, but he’s currently trading at better than 50/1. At this price I sincerely believe he may be the best bet on the board, and I don’t just say this because I have a trusted source on the ground out there (seriously) who has told me flatly that Lowry will win this week. Beyond secondhand speculation, there’s pretty solid evidence that the Irishman is positioned to contend– he’s coming off back-to-back strong performances, finishing 6th in Phoenix last week and 13th at the Farmers, and he played well in this event last year, breaking par in all four rounds and finishing 21st. He’s proven that he can win anywhere and that he’s not scared of big moments– he can be trusted around the lead, in other words. I’m all aboard at this price, and I suggest you join me.
Will Wilcox (128.0)- Wilcox is a youngster who can be a bit streaky at times, but he’s a birdie-making machine when he’s right and he’s coming off an excellent performance in the Phoenix Open, where he tied for 6th after a tremendous final-round 65. His aggressive style and affable nature make him a good fit for this format, I think, and there is some evidence to substantiate that, as he finished 18th in this event last year and also made the cut as a rookie in 2014. Don’t sleep on this guy– he’s a great value at 128.0.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Brooks Koepka (1.91) vs. Patrick Reed (1.91)
Reed has criss-crossed the globe in recent months, playing in Asia when many were taking time off, and if his last two starts are any indication the excessive travel seems to have caught up with him. Finishing 56th at the CareerBuilder Challenge didn’t really set off any alarm bells, but his performance at the Farmers the following week, when he withdrew after a third-round 81, reeked of exhaustion and/or burnout. Koepka has played a much more limited schedule but he’s just a month removed from a 3rd-place finish at the Hyundai. Recommendation: Koepka at 1.91
Justin Rose (1.91) vs. J.B. Holmes (1.91)
I’m of the belief that Rose is getting entirely too much respect in the betting marketplace this week, as he’s never played this event before and is coming off a missed cut at the Farmers. Holmes, meanwhile, has finished 6th in back-to-back starts and has a runner-up in this tournament (2010) on his resume. This play is so obvious that if this were some widely-bet market I’d think that we were being tricked, or there was something I was missing. I don’t think that’s the case, though. Rose is just living off reputation. Recommendation: Holmes at 1.91
