DONN McCLEAN: Donn looks ahead to Saturday’s Ascot Chase and finds an Irish raider which may be better than the market suggests.
There is a good shape to the Ascot Chase, with two horses at the top of the betting who are opposable at the prices, and an Irish raider who may have been under-rated by the market.
Flemenstar (pictured) first. He was top class in his younger days. He was just about unbeatable as a seven-year-old over two and two-and-a-half miles on soft ground in Ireland when he was trained by Peter Casey.
He won five of his six races in 2011/12, he beat Big Zeb in the Fortria Chase over two miles on his first run in 2012/13, he beat Sir Des Champs in the John Durkan Chase on his second, and he went very close in both the Lexus Chase and the Irish Gold Cup on his next two runs, when he just didn’t fully get home over three miles on soft ground.
He has had his issues and, of course, an 11-year-old now, he has changed yards a couple of times. But Anthony and Stephen Curran have him in great shape these days, and his last two runs have proven that he has retained lots of his ability.
So he was a fairly fortuitous winner at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, Un De Sceaux almost certainly would have won had he not fallen at the second last fence. However, Flemenstar finished well that day to beat Simply Ned, who is fully deserving of his rating of 159, and the pair of them were clear of Hidden Cyclone.
On his next run, in the Grade 2 Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown, Flemenstar came off second best behind Felix Yonger, but Felix Yonger is a talented horse, he has won six of his last seven races, including the Grade 1 Champion Chase at Punchestown in April, and Flemenstar ran him to two lengths.
The Flemensfirth gelding left the impressive that day that a step back up from the minimum trip would suit him, and that makes sense, as an 11-year-old. He is a super jumper and he thrives on soft ground. He has lots in his favour.
The market is correcting itself a little now, from ante post prices of 10/1, but he still looks over-priced. He has run just once in Britain, at Aintree in the Melling Chase in April 2013, when he was a well-beaten third behind Sprinter Sacre. However, he did not go there in the prime of his health, and the good ground would have been faster than ideal for him anyway. That one moderate run in Britain may have contributed to his inflated odds for the Ascot race.
One worry is that he is not a good traveller, he doesn’t like travelling too far from home, or at least he didn’t in his younger days. Hopefully he has out-grown that now, and connections are well aware of it anyway, they are sure to have taken whatever measures they need to take in order to ensure a comfortable passage. That worry is more than factored into odds of around 8.0, and he is worth backing at that.
Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti are obviously top class performers, but both have been disappointing lately, and both are vulnerable. Dynaste has not won since he won the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham in March 2014. That is 23 months and eight runs ago. This season, after running in France and putting up an encouraging performance in the Charlie Hall Chase, he has disappointed twice.
He wears blinkers for the first time today, replacing the cheekpieces, and the tongue-tie is back on, but it is difficult to be confident in him. Also, he has never run over fences at Ascot and, on the two occasions on which he has run over hurdles there, he has disappointed.
Silviniaco Conti is a little more difficult to oppose, but he still looks under-priced at around 4.1. Of course, he is a top class chaser, a multiple Grade 1 winner, a dual King George winner. However, he does have to bounce back from a lack-lustre run in the King George last time, and it is not ideal that he is dropping in trip.
As with Dynaste, blinkers replace his usual cheekpieces, but he is a three-mile chaser. He has dropped down below three miles just once in the last four years, when he was out-paced by Brother Tedd in a handicap hurdle on his debut this term.
He may well win, his class may overcome his disappointing run last time and the drop in trip, but there is enough there to justify taking him on at the price. You can lay Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste at combined odds of around 2.3, and it might be an idea to do that.
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