WGC-CADILLAC CHAMPIONSHIP: South Florida is the epicenter of the golfing universe this week, as 48 of the world’s top 50 players will do battle at Trump National Doral with a cool $9.5 million on the line. These World Golf Championship events may not technically be considered majors, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at a Sunday afternoon leaderboard.
Dustin Johnson (13.5) is the defending champ and he sits near the top of BETDAQ’s Win Market, but with names like Rory McIlroy (12.0), Bubba Watson (12.5), Jordan Spieth (15.0), Jason Day (16.5), and Rickie Fowler (17.0) also in the mix, there’s plenty of red meat for bettors to choose from.
Trump National Doral is a familiar place for nearly everyone in the field, as the PGA Tour has been stopping there for 53 years and this marks the 10th consecutive year that the course has hosted the WGC-Cadillac Championship (formerly the American Express Championship). It was radically altered by architect Gil Hanse in 2014, however, and it’s now significantly more difficult than it was in years past. Measuring over 7,500 yards in the heavy Florida air, it’s a bomber’s paradise where the wind frequently blows and water hazards lurk on nearly every hole. In both stagings of this tournament since the redesign the eventual champion has failed to reach double-digits under par.
With so much talent on hand, there are no easy answers this week. Maybe the one thing we know for sure is that America’s favorite talking yam– a.k.a. the future President of the United States (I know, I know, nobody wants him to win… except for the people who actually vote)– is sure to be on hand, as he is loath to miss any opportunity to thrust himself into the limelight and Doral now bears his name. And fittingly, my fortunes over the past three weeks have mirrored Trump’s description of the good ol’ US of A: losing when it should be winning, outsmarted by outside forces and betrayed by incompetent leadership. Let’s hope this week’s selections will help us Make Our Bankroll Great Again:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
J.B. Holmes (32.0)- While it’s difficult to ignore the cluster of big names atop the market, I believe the real value this week lies in a guy like Holmes, who is playing fantastic golf at the moment, has a good history at Doral, and yet is priced at better than 30/1. Everyone knows Holmes can hit the ball nine miles (third on the PGA Tour in driving distance this season), but his short game has also been spectacular recently, which is why he’s reeled off six consecutive top-25s and has finished no lower than 11th in his last four starts. Coming off a runner-up finish in this tournament last year, Holmes should be viewed as one of the clear favorites this week.
Louis Oosthuizen (44.0)- Ooosthuizen has established himself as one of the very finest players in the world in recent years, and his confidence should be sky-high right now after winning in Australia last week. He’s now logged four top-12 finishes in his last five worldwide starts, so there shouldn’t be any question about the state of his game, and Trump National Doral, with its Bermuda-covered fairways and greens, abundance of bunkers and water hazards, and frequently windy conditions, is very similar stylistically to many of the courses in Oosthuizen’s native South Africa (and in Australia, for that matter). It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that Oosthuizen has an excellent record at Doral, making the cut in all eight of his appearances at this event and finishing sixth last year. He’s an absolute steal at a price like 44.0.
Graeme McDowell (102.0)- McDowell went through a prolonged slump that really changed people’s perceptions of him, but he’s come out of the fog over the past couple of months and seems to be poised for a strong year. His 5th-place showing at the Honda Classic last week was the latest example of the turnaround, and now he returns to a place that’s been very good to him in the past. While it’s true that driving distance is one of the key markers for success at Doral and McDowell isn’t particularly long off the tee, he’s owned the Blue Monster anyway, recording four top-15 finishes in this event since 2008. And the redesign hasn’t slowed him down, either, as he eked out a top-10 in 2014 and then made the cut last year despite his aforementioned struggles. Don’t be surprised if McDowell hangs around the first page of the leaderboard this week.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jordan Spieth (1.91) vs. Adam Scott (1.91)
Spieth is priced like a mere mortal this week and I expect him to draw plenty of action because of it, both in the overall market and the individual match bets. I’d be a little cautious with the steely Texan, though– he missed the cut at Riviera in his last start, and in two previous appearances at Doral he has yet to crack the top-15 (a pretty high bar I know, but this is Jordan Spieth we’re talking about here). Scott, meanwhile, triumphed at the Honda Classic last week and has an impeccable record in this event, finishing in the top-15 five times in nine career appearances. Recommendation: Scott at 1.91
Bubba Watson (1.91) vs. Dustin Johnson (1.91)
Johnson won this tournament last year an certainly has the game to do it again, but his 2016 season hasn’t quite lived up to his own lofty standards and his putting is still a bit of a question mark. Bubba runs hot and cold with the putter as well, but he’s had more success than Johnson in recent weeks– he won his last time out, after all– and his record at Doral is fantastic, with three top-3 finishes in his last four appearances. Recommendation: Watson at 1.91
