MONDAY’S IRISH GRAND NATIONAL: First, the weights thing. Unlike the Aintree Grand National, if you win a race between the time at which the weights are framed for the Irish Grand National and the actual staging of the race, the handicapper can give you a penalty.
Take Cause Of Causes, for example. Because he won the Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham, a race that was run after the weights had been framed for both the Irish Grand National and the Aintree Grand National, he has to carry extra weight if he runs in the Irish National, but he doesn’t have to carry anything extra if he runs in the Aintree National.
Strange all right.
The Irish handicapper raised JP McManus’ horse 12lb for winning the Kim Muir, from a mark of 140 to a mark of 152, so that is the mark off which he will race in the Fairyhouse Easter Monday extravaganza. He raced off a British mark of 142 in the Kim Muir, so effectively he is 10lb higher than he was at Cheltenham.
The Irish National’s original top weight Foxrock was withdrawn at final declaration stage this morning, so that leaves Cause Of Causes with top weight, 11st 10lb, and that is a fair burden.
So why doesn’t he run in the Aintree National instead, a race in which he would not have to carry any extra weight, and a race in which he would, therefore, be 10lb well-in? Good question. The irony is that, because he would be set to race off a rating of 142 in the Aintree National, his old mark, he probably wouldn’t get into the race. He is currently number 57 on the list, he needs at least 17 horses above him in the handicap to come out in order to allow him into it, and that may not happen. Ironically, if he had got his 12lb penalty for the Aintree National, he would be sitting on mark of 154, joint 13th on the list and safely in under the safety limit.
It could be for luck though. There is no doubt that the Gordon Elliott-trained horse faces a tough task on Monday. The Irish National is usually a race that is dominated by the lowweights. None of the last 15 winners carried 11 stone or more, and you can name the horses who have won it off top weight: Flashing Steel, Desert Orchid, Brown Lad, Flyingbolt, Arkle. That would be some club for Cause Of Causes, if he could join them.
That said, Cause Of Causes is at the top of his game. He won the Kim Muir by 12 lengths, and it is easy to argue that he would have won it with 10lb more on his back, no problem. Also, his mark of 152 is no higher than his mark as a hurdler, the mark off which he raced in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in 2013 as a five-year-old. He is one of the class horses in the race, and class horses carry big weights in handicaps. That’s the rule.
From a betting perspective, however, it might pay to look further down the handicap. Not only have the last 15 winners carried less than 11st, but only two of them carried more than 10st 8lb. It really is a lowweights’ race.
Bonny Kate isn’t that far down the list, but she only has 10st 9lb to carry, and that is more than acceptable.
Noel Meade’s mare is a wholly likeable mare. She was very good in winning the Grand National Trial at Punchestown at the end of January. She set off in front that day and, just when it looked like Baie Des Iles was going give her a real race, she picked up again, and came home six lengths clear.
Meade toyed with the idea of allowing her take her chance in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, but he decided against that, which was probably an astute decision. Rated 137, she would have been rated 16lb inferior to the top-rated horse in the National Hunt Chase so, even with her 7lb mare’s allowance, she still would have had a little to find. Also, the ground at Cheltenham probably would have been as fast as she would have wanted it.
Instead, Meade brought her to Limerick, pocketed a Grade 2 mares’ chase, and primed her for the Irish National.
Patricia Hunt’s mare has a lot of the attributes that you look for in an Irish National candidate. She is a really accurate jumper, she stays well and, as a six-year-old who has raced just five times over fences, she still has bags of scope for further progression as a staying chaser.
Sean Flanagan gets on really well with her, and she goes well right-handed. Her record going right reads 111PU111, and she is one for one over fences at Fairyhouse. She ticks lots of boxes.
All her best form is on soft ground, so it would be a worry if the ground remained yielding, as they are currently describing it. However, there is plenty of rain forecast and, as long as at least some of it arrives, she could be worth backing at around 9.0 or 10.0.
Another Hero’s profile is not as solid as Bonny Kate’s, but it might also be worth backing him at a slightly bigger price, at around 13.0 or 15.0. JP McManus’ horse has raced just twice over fences, but he has won twice, both times at right-handed tracks, both times over three miles.
He jumped to his left throughout when winning at Ludlow last month, which was not ideal, but he still stayed on nicely to win well, and Ludlow is a tighter right-handed track than Fairyhouse is. If Jonjo O’Neill has ironed out that tendency in the meantime, there could be significant improvement forthcoming.
There should be improvement anyway. The Kalanisi gelding is only seven and, with just two runs over fences on his cv, he has lots of scope for further progression. It wasn’t a brilliant race that he won at Ludlow, but a 5lb hike is not harsh. He should be capable of going higher than his current rating of 136 as a staying chaser.
It is not ideal that Barry Geraghty has chosen to ride Cause Of Causes instead, but it really would have been difficult for the rider to pass up a Cheltenham Festival winner in favour of a horse with potential. Also, Mark Walsh has proven in the past that he can excel in the green and gold quartered cap.
It is significant that Jonjo O’Neill relies exclusively on Another Hero from a three-strong entry at the five-day stage. Jonjo is a past master at staying handicap chases, and he has won two of the last nine renewals of the Irish National in Butler’s Cabin and Shutthefrontdoor. If Another Hero can get into a nice even rhythm from early, it would be no surprise to see him run a big race.
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