LINCOLN HANDICAP POT OF GOLD: Daqman, the alchemist, fresh from his 16-1 Irish National triumph (Rogue Angel WON 34.0 on BETDAQ), last year gave the winner of today’s Spring Mile at Doncaster, Chatez (WON 14-1). Today he tries his magic with his first Pot Of Gold bets in both Spring Mile and Lincoln.
TRIPLE-VALUE ONLY ON BETDAQ: The illusive Pot Of Gold is possible on BETDAQ because of the low overround, but the bet must be value (odds better than you wanted), and you must keep the stake you would have used at the odds you required. Check yesterday’s Archive for full details of this triple value.
DAQMAN WANTS TO HIT PRICEWISE FOR SIX: After five consecutive winning seasons over Pricewise, Daqman puts up to him again today. They clash for the first time this year on Flat (turf) in the 2.15 and 2.45 Doncaster, and also in the 2.30 Kempton. Daqman’s current form and standings:
Bankers: 11111121202
Lays: 111111
Daqman 51, Pricewise 20 (end NH)
POT SHOT AT MONSTER PRICE FOR MARAAKIB
TRUTH ABOUT THE LINCOLN DRAW: Easy, say elements of the Press: just see what happens in the Spring Mile and follow the winning stalls side in the Lincoln.
Not so, I’m afraid; only 2009 and 2011 were copycat draw finishes in the last eight years. In four of those years, the results by stall were completely different.
Since 2008, starting with last year and going backwards (the Mile draw 1-2-3 with the Lincoln result in parentheses), the stalls in the frame have been 8-1-18 (15-6-19); 15-16-18 (3-22-20); 16-8-20 (3-1-19); 2-7-8 (12-21-9); 16-19-22 (16-19-6); 19-10-12 (1-5-10); 9-11-2 (9-2-3); 17-1-2 (12-3-16).
In fact, in the Spring Mile, the low seven have scored only once; whereas, in the Lincoln, only two winners have been drawn higher than 12 and single-figure stalls won four out of eight.
Domination of the race by handy horses suggests that the important thing is where the pace is. The form book reports a 6-2 win for those with, or close to, the pace over hold-up horses as follows:
Quotes on running: ‘Always front rank, tracking the pace, handy’ 6; ‘held up, came from last place’ 2.
2.15 Doncaster (Spring Mile) Seven times out of eight, the winner has come from the top of the handicap (9st 7lb plus). In other words, you need something that would have been capable of making a splash in the Lincoln itself but missed, or swerved, the cut.
Four-year-olds also have a distinct advantage (seven out of nine), and I can tell you that Azraff, Keystroke and Maraakib were in the top rank of my Lincoln ABC tick-list before they came out.
Predominance has been working well for William Haggas, trainer of two Lincoln winners since 2007, in which he will not now be represented; he has just the one runner at Doncaster, Predominance, and is going for a four-timer in a week, with his form on AW 111 in the last six days.
Two winning four-year-olds since 2009, Manassas and Eton Forever, had each had only four starts and both were rated 92.
Master Of Irony for trainer-in-form Ralph Beckett is also lightly raced but is a Doncaster CD winner over a mile on the soft. Negative is the one stall.
Emerald has a similar profile for early-starter Marco Botti, who also runs Azraff, with Ryan Moore booked, and gelded in the close season (Azraff not Ryan Moore). Twice in the first four at Doncaster.
More lightly-raced four-year-olds are Carnival King, Lord Of The Rock (stable winless this year) and Keystroke, who won the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton (front-runner Father Bertie behind) but the handicapper didn’t lose any sleep about it and raised him only 4lb, albeit he’s race fit.
Carnival King and Lord Of The Rock have won only their maidens. Edgar Balthazar is much more experienced but has scored only up to 7f.
Strong-runner Maraakib improved 10lb for being moved up to 10 furlongs, including here at Doncaster on a softish surface.
VERDICT: Maraakib is the trade horse at a huge 25.0 on BETDAQ this morning, likely to try to make all the running. With so many horses unfit – a hurdler won it last year – he’s worth a punt.
Any one of Azraff, Keystroke, Lord Of The Rock, Emerald, Predominance and Master Of Irony are poised to improve as lightly-raced four-year-olds for the right trainers at the time of year.
Keystroke (8.4 on BETDAQ as I write) won the Lincoln trial on a deepish AW surface and is a son of Pivotal, who passed on his love of turf soft. His two best sons, Farrh and African Story, improved as four-year-olds to be Group players.
POT-OF-GOLD: I’ve got my value ‘book’ (110% BETDAQ orange) but Predominance is short; Keystroke and Azraff (Ryan Moore effect) are slightly on the low side; and the ‘too big’ offer is Maraakib for a trainer they’re raving about for the Lincoln!
Should be about 14-1, so I’ll back him with a seven-point stake, as if he is 14-1, not the monster 25.0.
ORDER-IN: 1 Keystroke, 2 Maraakib, 3 Predominance, 4 Azraff
WHATEVER YOU DO, DO BACK THIS WINNER!
2.45 Doncaster (Lincoln Handicap) There’s a standout in the Lincoln. He hasn’t been out of the first three since his debut. He’s won over a mile on turf already this year at Meydan.
He has, essentially, taken a big field (17-runner) race. And he has just about the best form of any runner in the race, second in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, beaten only a neck.
The winner, War Envoy, had raced in the French Guineas and Derby for Aidan O’Brien, and the third horse won a decent handicap at the Galway festival.
The horse in question is a tongue-twister called Udododontu, now with Saeed Bin Suroor, and a winner at York last Spring when trained by Richard Guest.
The doubt they’re putting up about him is the ground but his sire, French Classic winner, Lope De Vega, gets a huge 24% winners on the soft.
I previewed the Lincoln on Thursday (see Daqman Archive), when Man Of Harlech and Storm Rock ticked all the boxes, barring trainer in form, and that’s the vital ingredient at this time of year.
Man Of Harlech must still come into it on two counts: he has raced this year and his fourth in the Cambridgeshire takes high rank in this contest for form.
But he has no chance with Birdman here over CD in September, 17lb worse off than when a nose in front of that one, beaten by Bronze Angel, with Azraff fourth.
If you back Birdman, you have to have a saver on his stablemate, the classy ex-Fabre Lord Of The Land, with the ground in his favour.
Mutarakez (stall 15) is lightly raced and ‘could be anything’ for an early-bird trainer, for whom Paul Hanagan has a 100% record.
He was only 14th at Royal Ascot on fast ground when Udododontu was runner-up in the Britannia but, on lines through Carry On Deryck and War Envoy, comes out close to Udododontu, so that result is not representative.
The pace seems to be with the low numbers (Beach Bar, Bravo Zolo, Fire Ship, Heavens Guest all show early toe) and the low stalls have the best of the Lincoln stats in my survey at the start of the column.
VERDICT: I thought Birdman warranted around 11.0 but we need some built-in risk from his high draw in 21, and we’ve got it: 17.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
Best of the low stalls are Lord Of The Land (6.8) and Udododontu (should be 7.0 favourite but I could get 11.0), with Man of Harlech and Express Himself making it clearly the best side, and Mutarakez stuck in the middle.
It’s possible that Paul Hanagan positioning can make a difference to his chance. I just nudge him out on Brian Meehan’s zero form on AW in 2016.
ORDER-IN: 1 Udododontu, 2 Birdman, 3 Lord Of The Land, 4 Man Of Harlech
HOT PACE SETS UP QUEENS PRIZE FOR HAINES
2.30 Kempton Grey Mirage is a once-a-year winner these days but the weights give him his turn this afternoon at 10.5 on BETDAQ, a tasty win and place in a 10-horse field.
3.40 Newbury (NH Novices Hurdle Finale) Top-weights have a tough old time of it in his Limited handicap. So do seven-year-olds, with the young mares overtaking them every year in the decade.
With Harry Skelton suspended, Ian Popham gets the ride on Dan Skelton’s Rene’s Girl, who appears well placed for this after a prep run, giving weight all round, dropped back near to the minimum trip.
She had looked a fine prospect in the autumn and the Presenting mare can now land a big prize returned to the right trip: the 8.0 on BETDAQ is on the generous side if not pot of gold.
5.20 Kempton (Queens Prize) Flashman and Highland Castle, maybe Hamelin, too, should set a strong pace here, which sets up the race for hold-up horse Haines, a winner here in January.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.15 Doncaster (Pot Of Gold)
TON-UP BET (WIN-100): 7pts win (triple value) and 7pts place MARAAKIB plus 6.7pts win KEYSTROKE, with 5pts win (stakes saver) PREDOMINANCE
2.45 Doncaster (Pot Of Gold)
TON-UP BET (WIN-100): 16pts win (triple value) UDODODONTU, and 6pts win and place BIRDMAN, with 2.5pts (stakes saver) LORD OF THE LAND
2.30 Kempton
BET (to win 20 points) 2pts win and place GREY MIRAGE
3.40 Newbury
BET (to win 30 points) 4.20pts win and place RENE’S GIRL
5.20 Kempton
BET (to win 30 points) 10pts (nap) HAINES
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double Rene’s Girl (3.40 Newbury) and Haines (5.20 Kempton)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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