AINTREE VALUE IN BETDAQ BETTING: You can’t go wrong at Liverpool today, as the Grand National meeting opens with tremendous value markets on BETDAQ. Daqman checks them out, race by race, and comes up with these headlines:
- POT OF GOLD WAITING FOR PATIENT ARZAL
- MULLINS WILL BE LAUGHING LITTLE APPLE’S
- 17.5 SAPHIR MAY HAVE BEEN OVERLOOKED
- ANNIE CAN POWER HOME A GOLD BANKER
- PACHA HAS CHANCE OF FOXHUNTER REVERSE
- VICONTE DU NOYER LOOKS A HIDDEN HORSE
DAQMAN NEEDS TWO FOR 300: Daqman starts the day 1-0 up on Pricewise, of the Racing Post, after beating him in five consecutive seasons 297-116. So he needs two more for the 300, tipping against him today in the 2.15, 4.05 and 4.40 at Aintree.
BE SURE YOU’RE IN THE RIGHT MARKET PLACE
BETDAQ backers are better off before they even start. Low overrounds (usually sub 110%) give you a fantastic start. You know you are in a punter-friendly market.
Last year at this meeting, for example, the bookies took up to an extra 30 for every 100 you spent trying to win 100! That’s what it amounted to with their 130% Total SP on the Fox Hunters’. Don’t go to ground, bet with BETDAQ!
POT OF GOLD WAITING FOR PATIENT ARZAL
1.40 Aintree (Manifesto Novices Chase) Manifesto was one of the worst ever results for bookmakers who were, literally, suicidal when, the Tsar Of Russia having issued his Manifesto for General Peace, Manifesto won the National after General Peace took the Lincoln. In those days life savings were invested in the Spring Double.
Feel better now! You won’t when you’ve studied the form for this Manifesto memorial. The pros and cons are a headache.
L’Ami Serge failed to last out the 2m 4f of the JLT at Cheltenham, in which Garde La Victoire fell when going well. Both will be better at Aintree for their different reasons, easier track and jumps.
The rain? Well, it helps L’Ami Serge in that it’s his preference but it makes for a more-stamina-sapping race, which isn’t.
Garde La Victoire will have a hungry Richard Johnson (no winners at Cheltenham) trying to find the better ground. On the other hand, it was the fast ground that forced his error at Cheltenham.
Sizing John has been placed behind Douvan FIVE times (second four, third one), is a Grade-2 winner, and had Aso seven lengths behind when Douvan won at Cheltenham.
Aso had earlier been left for dead (13 lengths) by Arzal at Newbury and, after Arzal then ran up to Vaniteux at Doncaster, we thought we’d seen an English winner at Cheltenham.
But it was ‘turn again Whittington’, as trainer Harry swerved the festival for today’s Manifesto. With all his rivals having raced at Cheltenham, he comes here the fresh horse and, for me, the best offer at 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning in a 105% orange.
That would require 5 points to win 30. But I rate him a 5.0 chance, which would cost 7.5 points to win 30; so I’ll take the 7.0, sticking to my original stake.
That’ll get me a Pot Of Gold triple bonus: value market, value bet, and sticking to my value view of the race with my original stake!
MULLINS WILL BE LAUGHING LITTLE APPLE’S
2.15 Aintree (Anniversary Juvenile Hurdle) Like Arzal, Khezerabad (needs good ground) and Azzuri are the fresh horses, after missing Cheltenham.
But winners of this have more experience: four, five and six starts have been required over recent years.
The favourite, Ivanovich Gorbachov, has had only three but one of them was a smooth Triumph at Cheltenham, beating Apple’s Jade and Footpad on fast ground.
Willie Mullin’s Apple’s Jade, who gets a 7lb filly’s allowance, had already beaten Footpad on heavy at Leopardstown on her Irish debut after being bought from France.
That was before Footpad turned over the odds-on Ivanovich Gorbachov at Leopardstown, also on heavy. The formbook, therefore, dictates a bet on Apple’s Jade on soft ground.
It may not be as simple as that but, on the only evidence we have, 5.3 Apple’s Jade looks a better bet than the 2.44 Ivanovich Gorbachov on BETDAQ as I write (overround 103%).
Alan King has won this four times since 2007, with an overall record of 11211F. It’s hard to be so loyal with Sceau Royal but he’s my BETDAQ outsider at 20.0 because Aintree will suit and we need one with experience. His Cheltenham running was all wrong.
17.5 SAPHIR MAY HAVE BEEN OVERLOOKED
2.50 Aintree Bowl This is a massive race, a Gold Cup reprise, which Colin Tizzard would love to do a quick edit on near the end, where Cue Card is pushed between two horses as he strides up to three out.
Those two finished first and second in the Gold Cup, Cue Card skewing as he jumped and falling out of the race.
Willie (no, not that Willie!).. will he get his revenge today? Second here twice in the 2m 4f Melling Chase, this 3m will suit, as Cue Card showed with a brilliant display in the King George at Kempton.
Second and third home at Cheltenham, Djakadam and Don Poli now have the advantage of soft ground. The stayer, Don Poli, should find better legs after struggling for pace on the fast Cheltenham surface (the Gold Cup was run 2secs fast) and is a better jumper than stablemate Djakadam, though it’s hard to see a dual Gold Cup runner-up being beaten.
Best outsider may be Saphir Du Rheu, 17.5 in a 102% BETDAQ orange at the time of writing, with the return to fences possibly relighting the flame.
Trained for the Gold Cup at one stage, he put up a scintillating performance here at Aintree as a 15-lengths Mildmay winner a year ago, after finishing second at Cheltenham in the World Hurdle.
That has a Big Buck’s flavour about it, and he could well have been overlooked, victim of the poor December-January form of the Ditcheat horses.
ANNIE CAN POWER HOME A GOLD BANKER
3.25 Aintree Hurdle The second at Cheltenham won at Aintree; the third at Cheltenham won at Aintree; fifth at Cheltenham won at Aintree; fourth at Cheltenham won at Aintree; third at Cheltenham won at Aintree; fourth at Cheltenham won at Aintree.
That’s a form template for the last six renewals of this, the winners being Zarkandar, The New One, Jezki, Oscar Whisky (2) and Khyber Kim as, year on year, the easier track and absence of most of the champions gifted this race to Champion Hurdle placed horses.
This year, second, third and fourth all run.. but so does the champion! Can anything stop her? Maybe the track; maybe the ground; but it seems unlikely and unlikely. In that order.
We have to revoke all fear of maximum stakes and go for a 50% power surge (she’s 1.52 as I write for a 30-point gold banker in a 102% market), which would pay for the rest of the day. If she loses, my tent or yours for a consolation drink on the camping ground?
PACHA HAS CHANCE OF FOXHUNTER REVERSE
4.05 Aintree (Fox Hunters’ Chase) Punters who duck the first race over the Grand National fences need a heads-up here on the huge result for favourites.
Eight of the last 10 winners have been 5-2 to 11-2 SP. Experienced horses aged 10, 11 and 12 have won eight out of nine, and you have to trust in star-name amateurs like Nina Carberry.
In her absence – Nina has a whips ban – Jamie Codd is entrusted with her Cheltenham Foxhunter winner, On The Fringe.
But am I the only one to dare run the feminist gauntlet and fancy Pacha Du Polder (fifth that day under Victoria Pendleton) to win or get closer under Will (no, not that Willie) Biddick?
Unfortunately not. Pacha, who was second to On The Fringe in this race last year, is also second in the market this year: 4.3 to his 3.2 in a 106% BETDAQ orange, as I write.
The difference is that Pacha is two years younger, and could have improved on last year, and he didn’t have a hard race at Cheltenham, Victoria unable to raise him the extra gear, as he cruised up the hill from a seemingly hopeless position.
VICONTE DU NOYER LOOKS A HIDDEN HORSE
4.40 Aintree (Red Rum Chase) The unkindest cut is the English weather. Minella Present, who missed Cheltenham for this, and last year’s winner on a sound surface, Surf and Turf, both dislike soft ground.
Solar Impulse and Dandridge were one-two at Cheltenham, also on a fast surface. Workbench has won all his races on ‘good.’ Fayette County is helped by it but is a bit of a late starter, an improving chaser at the age of nine.
Eight out of 10 winners of this are under the age of nine but, equally, eight out of 10 carry 11st or less, and very likely to do so again if the ground is a churned-up soft.
Pearls Legend and Nico De Boinvville won a similar race in December, and 12.5 offers look tasty win and place; indeed the pair were beaten only a couple of lengths in this last year.
But I think there’s a ‘hidden horse’ here in 9.4 BETDAQ offer (104% overround) Viconte De Noyer, who will like the ground and should strip fit after a recent run at Downpatrick over hurdles.
He won a race at Killarney in July by 22 lengths and 17 lengths. Fifth horse home at levels was a certain Dandridge!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 unless pot-of-gold bets or bankers)
1.40 Aintree
POT-OF-GOLD BET 7.5pts win (would win 49) ARZAL
2.15 Aintree
BET 7pts win APPLE’S JADE, and 1.5pts win and place SCEAU ROYAL
2.50 Aintree
BET 11.5pts win DJAKADAM, and 1.8pts win and place SAPHIR DU RHEU
3.25 Aintree
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap) ANNIE POWER
4.05 Aintree
BET 9pts win PACHA DU POLDER (4.05 Aintree)
4.40 Aintree
BULL’S-EYE (WIN 50) BET: 6pts win and place VICONTE DU NOYER, and (win 30) 2.6pts win and place PEARLS LEGEND (4.40 Aintree)
DAQ MULTIPLES
BET 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca ARZAL (1.40 Aintree), DJAKADAM (2.50 Aintree), ANNIE POWER (3.25 Aintree) and PACHA DU POLDER (4.05 Aintree)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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