VALERO TEXAS OPEN: San Antonio is one of the more underrated cities in the United States, and this week it hosts a tournament that may be “underrated” in terms of national prestige, but is becoming an increasingly popular stop for the PGA Tour’s best. I’m speaking of the Valero Texas Open, of course, an event that has steadily risen in prominence ever since making the move to the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio in 2010. Local hero Jimmy Walker is the defending champ and he tops BETDAQ’s Win Market at 17.5, but holding off a field that includes Branden Grace (20.0), Patrick Reed (24.0), Brooks Koepka (24.0), Phil Mickelson (25.0), and Matt Kuchar (24.0), among others, certainly won’t be easy for Walker, who makes his home in nearby Boerne.
The Oaks Course is an absolute bear of a layout, stretching out over 7,400 yards and featuring plenty of trouble and sticky Bermuda rough. Last year it played firm and fast thanks to the extra-breezy (even by South Texas standards) conditions, and the results were disastrous for the competitors: only ten players broke par for the week and the cut fell at 150 (+6), with 31 rounds of 80 or worse being carded on Thursday alone. Statistically it was the most difficult non-Major Championship course on the PGA Tour in 2015, but we can expect things to lighten up considerably this year. That’s because the greater San Antonio area, like much of Texas, has experienced torrential rains in recent days, rains that have flooded streets and turned some parts of the state into disaster areas. It’s an unfortunate situation for a whole lot of people, but for the guys teeing it up at TPC San Antonio on Thursday the heavy rain was a welcome development. A soft, receptive course awaits.
That’s not to say it’s going to be easy. Indeed, the softness will make an already long course play even longer, and should effectively eliminate the shorter players from being able to contend. This was already trending towards being a “bombers only” event anyway, as four of the six guys who have won here since 2010 are considered long by Tour standards, and this year it should be more apparent than ever. With that in mind, here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
J.B. Holmes (28.0)- Holmes has quietly been on a good run of late, finishing 11th or better in six of his past nine starts and sneaking into the top-5 at The Masters two weeks ago with a final round 68. As one of the longest guys on Tour and someone who was raised on Bermuda-covered courses, Holmes fits the profile of a player who should succeed at TPC San Antonio, and indeed he’s notched two top-15 finishes in four career appearances at this event. And remember– though he has yet to win this year, Holmes has tasted victory four times on the PGA Tour and has proven reliable when around the lead on Sunday. He’s a blue-chip option this week, for sure.
Ryan Palmer (80.0)- A native Texan, Palmer has traditionally played well in his home state and he enters this week on a streak of ten consecutive made cuts, so we know his game is in good shape. He has an excellent history at TPC San Antonio, too, finishing 6th here last year to go along with top-15s in 2013 and 2010. The soggy conditions this week should only help Palmer, as he presently ranks 8th on Tour in driving distance and primarily plays a draw (right-to-left), meaning the softness of the greens is especially important to him. All in all, Palmer feels like an absolute bargain at a price like 80.0.
Andrew Loupe (150.0)- Admittedly, this one could be described as a little outside the box. You won’t hear Loupe’s name thrown about by many (any?) tipsters this week, and with seemingly good reason: he’s only made 23 cuts in 51 career PGA Tour starts and has never finished higher than third. That third-place finish came earlier this year, however (at January’s CareerBuilder Challenge, to be exact), and Loupe is clearly a player on the upswing, with a 14th-place showing at the Honda Classic among his recent highlights. What’s more, he’s extremely long off the tee, averaging 305.4 yards per drive (12th on Tour), and prior to this year his best performance as a professional came at the Valero Texas Open back in 2014, when he hovered around the lead all week and wound up finishing fourth. So he’s improving, he’s long, he’s got good memories of TPC San Antonio, and he’s priced at 150.0. Sign me up.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Zach Johnson (1.86) vs. Brooks Koepka (1.86)
Johnson owned this event prior to its move to TPC San Antonio, when it was played on a 6,900-yard course, and he’s still managed to churn out solid finishes over the past few years. The course is clearly all he can handle from a length standpoint, though, and this year the conditions will make it play longer than ever. This bet is about more than the Short Hitter vs. the Long Hitter, however– fact is, Koepka has simply played better golf than Johnson this year. Much better, actually. Measure it any way you want– cut percentage, top-3 finishes, earnings, performance in the Masters– and Koepka is on top. The length factor is just the icing on the cake here. Recommendation: Koepka at 1.86
Charley Hoffman (1.86) vs. Billy Horschel (1.86)
Horschel played very well in this event last year, finishing fourth, but he’s got a long way to go before he can match Charley Hoffman’s record of consistency and achievement at TPC San Antonio. In the six stagings of this tournament on the Oaks Course, Hoffman’s finishes have looked like this: 13th, 2nd, 13th, 3rd, 11th, 11th. The man knows his way around the golf course, it’s as simple as that. Plus, Hoffman has been hot lately, finishing 38th or better in each of his last six starts. Recommendation: Hoffman at 1.86
