BARCELONA OPEN: We’re only hours away from the most highly anticipated match of this young clay-court season, as the red-hot Kei Nishikori will face master of the clay Rafa Nadal at a place where they’ve both had a lot of success: the final of the Barcelona Open.
Nadal has triumphed in Barcelona a record eight times but this is his first trip to the final since 2013, while Nishikori hoisted the trophy in both 2014 and 2015 and boasts a 14-match winning streak on the red Barca mud. Indeed, while Nishikori still seems most comfortable on hard courts, his clay-court prowess has grown considerably over the past couple of years and he now looks very natural on the surface. Sunday will be his ultimate test, though, as Nadal is perhaps the greatest clay-court player in the history of the sport (he currently holds 48 clay-court titles, one short of Guillermo Vilas’ all-time record). Furthermore, Nishikori has never had much success in this rivalry, beating Nadal just once in nine career attempts. It’s with noting, however, that Nishikori did take a set off the Spaniard in their most recent clay-court meeting (Madrid, 2014) before eventually retiring from that match due to injury.
So… where does that leave us as bettors? Nadal is the clear favorite and is currently trading at 1.38 at BETDAQ, but as his backers have painfully learned over the last couple of years, Rafa has become a player who is routinely overvalued in the betting marketplace due to his reputation and past success. Truth is, he’s a player in decline and has been for quite some time. That being said, he won in Monte Carlo last week and has breezed through this tournament thus far, so he’s clearly feeling good at the moment. Still, his price is awful short considering the opponent, as Nishikori, in addition to being the 6th-ranked player in the world, has given Nadal all he could handle in their last few matches. Honestly, 2013 appears to be the line of demarcation in this rivalry: Nadal had beaten Nishikori all five times he had faced him prior to 2014, winning 12 of 13 sets and never losing more than four games in a set he won. Since then it’s been a different story, as these two have traded blows as equals over their last four matches and Nishikori was finally able to close the deal in Canada last year, beating Nadal 6-2, 6-4. All that’s left now for Japan’s top player is a clay court victory against one of the legends of the sport, and by God I think he just might get it. Recommended Bets: Nishikori at 3.35, Nishikori 2-1 (sets) at 6.4
